每天賺百分之六

It is 04:20 AM on 2026.07.03. The two BTC long-term short positions are still in place. The short-term long position from 59088 to 58588 exited with a stop-loss at 57888, and after that there were no new trades. After stopping out by 100 points, the rebound was really grinding on my nerves, so I didn’t participate yesterday.
Since the last June 17 market analysis share, after continuing to look bearish, BTC has dropped from 67000 and broken below the previous low of 59000, then repeatedly tested lower but failed to achieve the bigger downside move that was expected. Currently, a rebound has started around the new low of 57700, and the rebound high reached 62200. Since it has been half a month since I last did a market analysis, the following analysis uses the price action after the previous analysis as the starting point. Looking at the BTC futures contract data on the four-hour level: net shorts keep entering, net longs are exiting, and the net-short entry value is far greater than the net-long. Chasing shorts near the bottom has also gathered a large amount of liquidation positions overhead. The Binance BTC long/short account ratio fell from 3 after the price broke below 58000, and as the price continued to rise it dropped to the current 1.66, which matches the change in values when bottom long positions take profit and exit during an upward move. A MACD four-hour bullish divergence at the bottom has formed. At the daily level, a bottom divergence has also formed, but the fast line has not shown a clear upward turn, and the fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis. For now, the daily-level bottom divergence is to be observed. In summary, due to the dense overhead positions plus the support from the bottom divergence and rebound needs, the mid-term trend is likely to see a rebound.

It is now 00:03 on April 9, 2026. The short positions established a few days ago were stopped out at 70588, and I currently hold a market short position at 72400, having taken a profit of 50% near 71000, with a stop at 71888. I bought a put option expiring on the 9th at a market price of 65 for 69500 and closed 50% at a price of 135, leaving the remaining position at zero cost.
The BTC price began to rebound near 67700 above the support of 67588 mentioned in our analysis on the evening of the 6th, and started to rise rapidly at 4 AM on the 8th, catalyzed by positive news regarding a ceasefire in the Middle East. It touched the high point near 72800 twice before retracing, and the current price is 71300. Today's short position has been arranged for friends in the group to reduce their holdings, and I personally have not made any trades. Options have been closed at 50% with a zero-cost structure according to the strategy. The long-to-short position ratio has dropped below 1.0, with a minimum of 0.89, which is also the best entry point for most short positions in the past. Coupled with the fact that we are still in a bear market, if the BTC price rises again, I still recommend opening short positions, such as entering again at the upper resistance levels of 73888/76000. As for whether to re-establish the long-term short positions at 78588/80588 that were canceled a few days ago, we need to wait for two days for the market to become clearer before making a decision.