Mek

The Central Bank is going to have to work up quite a sweat to sort out this mess.

In theory, it comes out of the budget amendments.
In practice, spending goes up and revenue doesn't keep pace.

The deficit turns into debt.
Debt has to be rolled over.

And when the market charges too much to roll it over, the solution becomes monetization.

NOTHING IS FREE.

I hope by this stage of the game you've already understood that.

📊 Nearly US$1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of it in long positions.

The PPI came in at 6.3% year over year, above expectations, a day after the CPI.

Bitcoin broke above US$80,000 for the first time in over a month and is already back above US$81,000.

The $ETH liquidated more than the $BTC .. US$282 million versus just over US$200 million.

On days like this, the action isn’t limited to just one asset.

Yesterday, the CPI took a rate cut off the table.
Today, the PPI is starting to put a rate hike in its place.

U.S. producer inflation came in DOUBLE expectations in September: 1.3% for the month and 6.3% over 12 months, the second-highest level since 2022.

And it wasn’t just energy.
Core inflation also came in higher: 0.7% for the month and 5% year over year.

The PPI measures the costs faced by producers. When costs rise here, they tend to reach consumers later.

The Fed meets in two weeks, and markets are already starting to price in tightening instead of relief.

A cold shower for the markets. #CPIWatch

The last signal Bitcoin was missing is almost here.

The MVRV momentum of long-term holders is about to turn positive, with the ratio crossing back above its own 365-day average.

This has only happened four times after a bear market: in 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2023.

All four marked the start of bull runs.

LTHs are always the last to emerge from relative losses, because they’re the ones who held through the entire bear market.

Are there still bears among us?

Bitcoin could gain privacy and quantum resistance without changing a single line of the protocol. 🚨

That’s the proposal from researchers at Imperial College London and Orbs.

The main problem today is that migrating a blockchain to post-quantum cryptography makes signatures and proofs much heavier, bloating the network.

Their solution is to take all of that off the network.

The proofs and signatures stay with the user (so-called client-side validation), and only the bare minimum goes on the network: three hashes per transaction.

A new mechanism called the “degrifer” ensures ownership and prevents double spending, using only hash commitments.

On-chain signatures would no longer exist.

For now, it’s just a paper, not working code.

But the debate about quantum computing and Bitcoin has always stumbled over the idea that defense would require a soft fork.

Could it come from outside the network?

U.S. inflation came in above expectations.

CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, versus 3.6% forecast.
Core inflation also came in higher: 2.6% versus 2.5%.

With two weeks to go until the Fed meeting, this data takes a rate cut off the table.

The odds of rates remaining unchanged are falling again. #CPIWatch

Whales are doing the opposite of retail in Bitcoin.

And it’s not even close.

In September, the largest borrowers using BTC as collateral increased their USDT debt.

The smaller ones cut theirs.

Nobody borrows against their BTC just to sell it.

They want liquidity without giving up their position.

In other words, big money is doubling down while small investors are jumping ship.

The last time these two disagreed, retail didn’t come out on top.

Leverage is an institutional play, but only when executed well. Have you been paying attention to this?

The US stock market went 224 trading sessions without a single day of broad-based selling.

That's the longest streak since at least 1996.

The previous record was 133 days, in 1997.
Almost twice as long now.

And the S&P 500 has gone 52 trading sessions without falling 1% in a single day.

How much longer can this calm spell last?

#CPIWatch

Don't be mistaken: the global tightening cycle didn't just begin.

15 of the 33 major central banks raised interest rates over the past six months.

A total of 54 have tightened policy in 2026.

In 2022, this indicator reached 95%, but in 2018 and 2011 it was close to 55%.

During those periods of moderate tightening, the cycle quickly reversed in the following quarters.

Could we see a reversal in a few months?

The global liquidity acceleration cycle has not started yet.

The 12-month change remains below zero, and bitcoin is still negative over 52 weeks.

The two curves have tracked closely for 13 years, with the same turning points in 2015, 2017, 2021, and 2022.

That’s because bitcoin is the asset with the highest beta to the planet’s marginal liquidity.

When there’s excess money in the system, it gets it first.
When there’s a shortage, it gives it back first.

In other words, the entire rally since August has happened without the main engine switched on.

When that curve turns, it will find a market with leverage at its lowest level of the year and long-term supply locked up.

Are you paying attention?

Pending home sales in the U.S. fell 4% in September, to 316,652.

LOWEST LEVEL in 12 years, excluding the pandemic months.

Now look at this data and try to believe the Fed has a clear path to quietly raise interest rates.

It doesn’t.

Liquidity is already tight.

But it’s only a matter of time before it isn’t.

And generally, the assets that feel this shift in the wind are those highly sensitive to liquidity, such as bitcoin.

📈 "SUPERCYCLE" is just another way of saying that $BTC is moving beyond 4-year cycles and following global macro markets.

No asset in history has followed a programmed clock, except BTC.

The BTC supply shock is now TOO SMALL to make a difference.

Anyone who thinks the "halving" is still a cycle marker for bitcoin probably hasn't run the numbers.

Bitcoin is a macro asset. And that's nothing new.

Gold funds have never received this much money in a quarter. 🚨

Around US$ 31 billion in Q3, a record according to the World Gold Council.

And BLACKROCK just downgraded US stocks to neutral.

Big money is looking for protection.

Gold is the old answer. Bitcoin is the new one.

LIQUIDITY REGION BELOW REMAINS IN BITCOIN 🚨

Even with the expected sweep of the $80–81k range, flagged on the 8th, this region has not been fully liquidated.

The entry of long positions during the price rebound over the weekend, especially yesterday, added more capital to this same region.

Now that the price is beginning to slow down its rebound, we could see a move into this zone simply due to low liquidity.

In that case, watching the price reaction around $80k will be very important, as absorption in this zone will determine whether the $75k range is in play.

Between these two zones lies a liquidity gap in futures, so the answer will come from the spot market.

I would be cautious about taking short positions below $80k.

On the contrary, this could be a major opportunity for longs, but we’ll only get better confirmation once we’re there.

As expected, short-term investors are starting to realize losses on-chain. ✅

After entering local euphoria above $85K, these investors are beginning to show signs of local capitulation, which generally supports interesting short-term price floors.

This drop hasn’t yet generated a major spike in realized losses, so if there’s no spot buying re-entry and increase in demand, it could persist for a few more days.

Maybe now you understand why I posted earlier about being cautious of FOMO.

It’s rare, but it happens in every microstructure.

Retail traders follow trends late because they trade on news and narratives, not data.

They’re late to buy upward moves and leave far too late during price corrections.

Then they blame “the market.”
They blame “whales manipulating the market.”

We’re forming an interesting re-entry pattern, with SOPR falling below 1.

In the coming days, we may hear “analysts” saying the bear market is back, and that they’re going to sell so they can buy below $60K at the “real bottom.”

That will be the time to get optimistic again.

Buy the blood

Were you paying attention?

The fear of losing control is REAL🤯

The IMF has just officially stated that tokenization could cause “erosion of monetary sovereignty” in emerging countries.

Brazil is an emerging economy. They’re talking about us.

The full statement lists three risks: volatile capital flows, rapid currency substitution, and erosion of monetary sovereignty.

In other words, the fear is that people will switch from their own country’s currency to digital dollars faster than the government can react.

The IMF’s head of capital markets summed up the mechanism in one sentence: frictions disappear, but so do the shock absorbers.

Here, “shock absorbers” means capital controls, settlement times—the time the state has to shut the door when money starts flowing out.

With atomic settlement, that time becomes zero.

What worries the IMF isn’t fraud or crypto volatility.

It’s the state’s ability to keep money within its own borders.

And what the IMF calls a risk is, for citizens of emerging countries, the exact definition of asset protection.

Have you started protecting your assets yet?

Bitcoin ETFs in the US lost US$ 487 million in a single day, the largest outflow since June. 🚨

BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for US$ 208 million.

Two weeks ago, the year-to-date flow had just turned positive after US$ 4.6 billion entered in a month.

Perfect timing for entries near the highs and outflows during downtrends.

Spot ETFs trade like retail, not institutional.
Good to keep an eye on large outflow volumes.

🇧🇷 While the world debates the Strait of Hormuz, Brazil has set a RECORD for OIL production.

4.62 million barrels per day in August.

Up 18% in twelve months.

That’s about 700,000 barrels per day of new supply in one year. More than several OPEC members produce in total.

Now put that next to the other figure.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz are around 6 million barrels per day, close to 30% of pre-conflict levels.

In other words, in twelve months Brazil alone added more than 10% of everything that can still pass through the planet’s most heavily constrained strait.

And then there’s the geography, which almost no one talks about.

This oil comes from deepwater pre-salt fields and is shipped across the Atlantic.

No chokepoint, no mandatory passage, no Iran in the way.

The Gulf is bottlenecked as it tries to get oil out. The Atlantic just keeps adding supply.

That changes what a Brazilian barrel is worth. It’s not just greater volume—it’s a barrel with a logistics reliability premium at a time when reliability is the scarcest asset in the energy market.

Brazil is becoming a strategic energy supplier at the worst geopolitical moment in decades.

Could this re-rating of Brazil intensify?

U.S. Government Sends MORE BITCOIN to Coinbase 🚨

That’s 4,632 BTC, about US$ 384,5 million, plus US$ 119 million in USDT and 750 WBTC.

Yesterday, it was 834 BTC.

Today, it’s five times as much, headed to the same destination: deposits into Coinbase Prime.

The coins are coming from wallets linked to the Bitfinex and FTX seizures, passing through intermediary addresses in batches of 2,818 and 1,418 BTC, and then being deposited into the exchange’s institutional service.

Will the Trump administration break its promise not to sell any more bitcoin?