Mek
854 Posts
Mek
Trader Institutional & Analyst since 2018 · Binance KOL & BNBChain Martian. Building at Web3 and Sovereign Infrastructure.
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Tem próximo de $1 TRILHÃO no TGA (conta geral do tesouro) e o tesouro poderá INJETAR esse dinheiro em breve. 🔥
Essa é uma conta de escoamento de pagamentos governamentais, e ao ser drenada, injeta liquidez represada.
O tesouro americano está buscando formas de destravar liquidez sem criar unidades monetárias (QE clássico).
E provavelmente, teremos mais entradas de liquidez nos próximos meses.
Essa é uma conta de escoamento de pagamentos governamentais, e ao ser drenada, injeta liquidez represada.
O tesouro americano está buscando formas de destravar liquidez sem criar unidades monetárias (QE clássico).
E provavelmente, teremos mais entradas de liquidez nos próximos meses.
📊 In the second quarter of 2026, the largest quarterly outflow of $BTC from ETFs in history was recorded, with 77.033 BTC, which, according to 13F reports, was driven largely by individual investors.
Institutional investors reduced their exposure for the third consecutive quarter, but by only 1.195 BTC. Investors who do not report information in 13F filings were responsible for the remaining 75.839 BTC.
Institutional investors reduced their exposure for the third consecutive quarter, but by only 1.195 BTC. Investors who do not report information in 13F filings were responsible for the remaining 75.839 BTC.
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities has fallen to the lowest level in more than a decade. 🚨
And that helps explain the intervention I’ve already shown here a few days ago.
The official foreign flow into T-bills turned strongly negative in 2026, the biggest outflow in the series since at least 2017.
It’s this gap in external buyers that pushes the Treasury to fund its own demand through expanded buybacks.
That’s what’s pushing yields to the moon. It’s not just "inflation expectations." It’s selling pressure in the bonds.
The Treasury is going to need to intervene MUCH MORE.
Act accordingly.
And that helps explain the intervention I’ve already shown here a few days ago.
The official foreign flow into T-bills turned strongly negative in 2026, the biggest outflow in the series since at least 2017.
It’s this gap in external buyers that pushes the Treasury to fund its own demand through expanded buybacks.
That’s what’s pushing yields to the moon. It’s not just "inflation expectations." It’s selling pressure in the bonds.
The Treasury is going to need to intervene MUCH MORE.
Act accordingly.
Good morning, have an excellent week.
A post for those who know what this chart means and are paying attention.
We spent June and July with our eyes glued to this.
Probably nothing. 🤷♂️
A post for those who know what this chart means and are paying attention.
We spent June and July with our eyes glued to this.
Probably nothing. 🤷♂️
U.S. manufacturing at its highest level since 2018 outside the post-pandemic reopening peak.
The index, adjusted for the ISM methodology, came in at 58.6 in August, well above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction.
What this combination suggests is not an economy entering recession; it’s productive activity holding steady while the labor market loses momentum—the same pattern we’ve seen with weak payrolls, falling participation, and negative retail over the past few weeks.
Those betting on a "crash" seem to be overlooking the resilience of economic activity.
Those betting on a hawkish Fed are discounting that employment is not growing, despite resilience in activity.
And this trap is confusing a lot of people who look at the macro picture.
The index, adjusted for the ISM methodology, came in at 58.6 in August, well above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction.
What this combination suggests is not an economy entering recession; it’s productive activity holding steady while the labor market loses momentum—the same pattern we’ve seen with weak payrolls, falling participation, and negative retail over the past few weeks.
Those betting on a "crash" seem to be overlooking the resilience of economic activity.
Those betting on a hawkish Fed are discounting that employment is not growing, despite resilience in activity.
And this trap is confusing a lot of people who look at the macro picture.
There is a wall of 3.44 million BTC with an average cost between US$ 58 thousand and US$ 67 thousand.
It’s the densest cost cluster below the current price, and it has turned into a relevant support in any pullback.
2.23 million BTC, about 11% of the total supply, were reallocated into this range while the price moved sideways for 11 weeks.
Nearly 9 out of 10 of these coins came from above, mainly from the band between US$ 67 thousand and US$ 74 thousand, which lost almost 40% of its own supply while the price was stuck.
It’s exactly below where bitcoin is trading right now.
Of the total that got trapped above this range, 76% simply held the position without selling.
Only 11% took the opportunity to lower their own average cost by buying during the drop. The other 13% capitulated, selling with an average loss of 26%.
This is the kind of handoff pattern you see in a bottom-formation region.
Data: Glassnode
It’s the densest cost cluster below the current price, and it has turned into a relevant support in any pullback.
2.23 million BTC, about 11% of the total supply, were reallocated into this range while the price moved sideways for 11 weeks.
Nearly 9 out of 10 of these coins came from above, mainly from the band between US$ 67 thousand and US$ 74 thousand, which lost almost 40% of its own supply while the price was stuck.
It’s exactly below where bitcoin is trading right now.
Of the total that got trapped above this range, 76% simply held the position without selling.
Only 11% took the opportunity to lower their own average cost by buying during the drop. The other 13% capitulated, selling with an average loss of 26%.
This is the kind of handoff pattern you see in a bottom-formation region.
Data: Glassnode
Partly True
776 RWA detentores estão na BNB Chain.
Esse número subiu ~370% em apenas 30 dias, colocando a BNB Chain na liderança.
Você é um dos 776 mil? 👀
Esse número subiu ~370% em apenas 30 dias, colocando a BNB Chain na liderança.
Você é um dos 776 mil? 👀
How many times have they said here in the last few weeks the sentence "PEAK HAWKSHINESS"?
If you still hadn’t understood what it meant until now.
Open the BTC chart. There you go, you figured it out.
A lot of people are talking about macro without understanding macro. Focus on data, not narratives.
And be careful not to start making things up just to stay optimistic after the price goes up. It’s rare, but it happens a lot. In a few days, an "Analyst" will show up again, starting to be optimistic.
When you see that, start being cautious.
If you still hadn’t understood what it meant until now.
Open the BTC chart. There you go, you figured it out.
A lot of people are talking about macro without understanding macro. Focus on data, not narratives.
And be careful not to start making things up just to stay optimistic after the price goes up. It’s rare, but it happens a lot. In a few days, an "Analyst" will show up again, starting to be optimistic.
When you see that, start being cautious.
Verified
++ BESSENT: BUYBACKS MAY BE LARGER THAN THE $4 BILLION ANNOUNCED
But that was kind of obvious.
The market didn’t pay attention (again). The yields on long-term securities (10y-30y) have already practically recovered from yesterday’s drop.
But the intervention HASN’T STARTED YET.
All this price movement is forward-looking expectations. Like any market, bitcoin, metals, and bonds already priced it in.
The intervention only begins on September 9.
But it won’t be enough. That’s why Bessent is already coming out to say the buybacks will be BIGGER.
The key point is duration. These operations swap maturities and inject liquidity via highly liquid securities used in repo.
Make sure you’re consuming real information when positioning yourself. Or at least from sources that understand what’s happening.
But that was kind of obvious.
The market didn’t pay attention (again). The yields on long-term securities (10y-30y) have already practically recovered from yesterday’s drop.
But the intervention HASN’T STARTED YET.
All this price movement is forward-looking expectations. Like any market, bitcoin, metals, and bonds already priced it in.
The intervention only begins on September 9.
But it won’t be enough. That’s why Bessent is already coming out to say the buybacks will be BIGGER.
The key point is duration. These operations swap maturities and inject liquidity via highly liquid securities used in repo.
Make sure you’re consuming real information when positioning yourself. Or at least from sources that understand what’s happening.
Mek
·
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The U.S. Treasury has just doubled the size of long-term debt buyback operations. 🚨
This is direct intervention in the interest-rate market, not routine technical adjustment.
Starting September 9, the repurchase operations in 10- to 30-year notes increase from US$ 2 billion to at least US$ 4 billion per operation.
The stated reason is to support liquidity after a rapid rise in long-term yields.
The famous “QE” that “isn’t QE.”
Controlling the yield curve through liquidity intervention is exactly what reveals the crisis of confidence in Treasuries.
We do not have enough scarce assets.
This is direct intervention in the interest-rate market, not routine technical adjustment.
Starting September 9, the repurchase operations in 10- to 30-year notes increase from US$ 2 billion to at least US$ 4 billion per operation.
The stated reason is to support liquidity after a rapid rise in long-term yields.
The famous “QE” that “isn’t QE.”
Controlling the yield curve through liquidity intervention is exactly what reveals the crisis of confidence in Treasuries.
We do not have enough scarce assets.
It’s over. ✅
As expected. A low and persistent vol scenario like the one we had at the start of August has a short lifespan in history.
However, in my view, I think this vol expansion hasn’t finished yet. Which requires even more attention from investors.
As expected. A low and persistent vol scenario like the one we had at the start of August has a short lifespan in history.
However, in my view, I think this vol expansion hasn’t finished yet. Which requires even more attention from investors.
Mek
·
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Calm should come to an end soon.
Generally, when we have realized volatility over 2 weeks so low like this in bitcoin, it doesn’t take long for a new volatility expansion period.
This pattern of volatility reduction happens after expansion periods, mainly after capitulations.
If you’re feeling bored with the current price, rest assured it may not take long for things to get agitated again.
Given the setup I addressed in my Friday video, I’d guess that this start of volatility will begin with a "trap" first.
Generally, when we have realized volatility over 2 weeks so low like this in bitcoin, it doesn’t take long for a new volatility expansion period.
This pattern of volatility reduction happens after expansion periods, mainly after capitulations.
If you’re feeling bored with the current price, rest assured it may not take long for things to get agitated again.
Given the setup I addressed in my Friday video, I’d guess that this start of volatility will begin with a "trap" first.
Verified
Many people think that the return on long-dated bonds is just a pricing of future inflation.
But it isn’t.
This rise in long-term interest rates in the U.S. and around the world is quite out of line with future inflation expectations.
The reason is a crisis of confidence in government debt.
And few people really understand that. Holding scarce assets is a matter of survival in this "new normal".
But it isn’t.
This rise in long-term interest rates in the U.S. and around the world is quite out of line with future inflation expectations.
The reason is a crisis of confidence in government debt.
And few people really understand that. Holding scarce assets is a matter of survival in this "new normal".
Mek
·
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There are currently two types of investors in this market.
Those who understand what this chart means.
And those who have no idea.
Only one of them will be able to protect themselves from what’s coming.
But it won’t be easy.
Are you paying attention?
Those who understand what this chart means.
And those who have no idea.
Only one of them will be able to protect themselves from what’s coming.
But it won’t be easy.
Are you paying attention?
🇺🇸 White House Crypto Summit Recap:
• President Trump says the U.S. is considering buying “significant” amounts of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• Trump asks Congress to pass the Crypto Clarity Act.
• Trump says the U.S. is ensuring it remains the “undisputed leader” in $BTC and crypto.
• Hyperliquid $HYPE rises 15% to $69 after Trump says the CFTC is working to bring it to the U.S.
• SEC Chairman Paul Atkins says, “We will ensure that the biggest advances at the technological frontier are made right here in America.”
• Gemini co-founders say, “America should lead in crypto and win in the market.”
• Trump says he “ended the war on crypto once and for all.”
• President Trump says the U.S. is considering buying “significant” amounts of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• Trump asks Congress to pass the Crypto Clarity Act.
• Trump says the U.S. is ensuring it remains the “undisputed leader” in $BTC and crypto.
• Hyperliquid $HYPE rises 15% to $69 after Trump says the CFTC is working to bring it to the U.S.
• SEC Chairman Paul Atkins says, “We will ensure that the biggest advances at the technological frontier are made right here in America.”
• Gemini co-founders say, “America should lead in crypto and win in the market.”
• Trump says he “ended the war on crypto once and for all.”
Simple and to the point.
For you, did $BTC bottom out—yes or no?
Anyone who sees and doesn’t respond is soft.
For you, did $BTC bottom out—yes or no?
Anyone who sees and doesn’t respond is soft.
NÃO
47%
SIM
53%
36 votes • Voting closed
Detail that I forgot to mention in the previous post.👇
We had the LARGEST SHORT LIQUIDATION in bitcoin in ALL OF HISTORY.
It was the first time that the amount of liquidations exceeded $$ 1 BILLION in bitcoin.
Even with a move of "only" 7%.
The number of pessimists was absurd.
We had the LARGEST SHORT LIQUIDATION in bitcoin in ALL OF HISTORY.
It was the first time that the amount of liquidations exceeded $$ 1 BILLION in bitcoin.
Even with a move of "only" 7%.
The number of pessimists was absurd.
Mek
·
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BullishWe have just registered the THIRD LARGEST liquidation of crypto derivatives futures in 2026. 🚨
Nearly $2 BILLION in open futures positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Just over $1 billion was only in bitcoin.
Pessimistic traders were OBLITERATED.
Nearly $2 BILLION in open futures positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Just over $1 billion was only in bitcoin.
Pessimistic traders were OBLITERATED.
Verified
The U.S. Treasury has just doubled the size of long-term debt buyback operations. 🚨
This is direct intervention in the interest-rate market, not routine technical adjustment.
Starting September 9, the repurchase operations in 10- to 30-year notes increase from US$ 2 billion to at least US$ 4 billion per operation.
The stated reason is to support liquidity after a rapid rise in long-term yields.
The famous “QE” that “isn’t QE.”
Controlling the yield curve through liquidity intervention is exactly what reveals the crisis of confidence in Treasuries.
We do not have enough scarce assets.
This is direct intervention in the interest-rate market, not routine technical adjustment.
Starting September 9, the repurchase operations in 10- to 30-year notes increase from US$ 2 billion to at least US$ 4 billion per operation.
The stated reason is to support liquidity after a rapid rise in long-term yields.
The famous “QE” that “isn’t QE.”
Controlling the yield curve through liquidity intervention is exactly what reveals the crisis of confidence in Treasuries.
We do not have enough scarce assets.
Right, left, center. It doesn’t matter who sits in the chair—the debt rises and the money multiplies.
Since FHC, every president who has left office has left the country more indebted in relation to GDP than they received.
M2 took the same path. It went from R$ 0.40 trillion in 2002 to R$ 7.65 trillion today. All this new money needs to compete for the same goods and services as always.
Change the party, change the campaign message. The printer never changes governments.
Protect yourself from Brazil risk is a matter of survival.
Since FHC, every president who has left office has left the country more indebted in relation to GDP than they received.
M2 took the same path. It went from R$ 0.40 trillion in 2002 to R$ 7.65 trillion today. All this new money needs to compete for the same goods and services as always.
Change the party, change the campaign message. The printer never changes governments.
Protect yourself from Brazil risk is a matter of survival.
There are currently two types of investors in this market.
Those who understand what this chart means.
And those who have no idea.
Only one of them will be able to protect themselves from what’s coming.
But it won’t be easy.
Are you paying attention?
Those who understand what this chart means.
And those who have no idea.
Only one of them will be able to protect themselves from what’s coming.
But it won’t be easy.
Are you paying attention?
"friendly reminder" that September brings the weakest accumulated performance of Bitcoin when looking from 2015 to today.
But as you go through this period, there are the 3 best months in history.
We’re very close to a new peak in volatility.
Place your bets.
But as you go through this period, there are the 3 best months in history.
We’re very close to a new peak in volatility.
Place your bets.
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