Shin-obi

Hey mates 👋
I’m not here to drop technical analysis or push any bias.The goal is simple to build a solid day trading community where we can openly share strategies, ideas, and real market thoughts.
Let’s learn, adapt, and grow together #trading #TradingCommunity

US import prices came in hot today. That adds inflation pressure and could keep yields and the dollar firm. BTC may stay volatile but the Fed decision is the real trigger tonight.

US RETAIL SALES TODAY!

6:00 PM IST 🇺🇸

Retail Sales + Import Prices are dropping today. BTC volatility could pick up as traders watch the data ahead of the Fed decision.

Stay alert. 📊

#newscrypto #Crypto #RetailSales

U.S. Debt + AI Boom: The Risk Nobody Is Watching?I’ve been looking at the U.S. debt problem and the AI boom together. The connection is interesting.

The U.S. has over $40T in debt, while annual interest payments are above $1T. Treasury yields are also near levels not seen since 2007.The difference? Debt was much lower back then. Today, even a small rise in borrowing costs becomes expensive.

Now add AI.

💰 Hundreds of billions are flowing into data centers, GPUs, electricity and cloud infrastructure.

There is real demand and real revenue. But I keep asking:How much growth is organic, and how much is being pulled forward by financing?

A tech company invests in AI. AI spends on cloud services and GPUs. Infrastructure companies earn revenue and expand further. Money keeps moving inside the same ecosystem.

That does not mean the revenue is fake. It means the financing loop deserves attention.Now both the U.S. government and AI companies need enormous amounts of capital at the same time.And when everyone wants money, the price of money matters.Higher yields can pressure government finances, corporate borrowing, AI valuations, stocks, real estate and crypto liquidity.

I’m not saying the dollar is collapsing tomorrow. I’m not saying AI is a bubble.I’m saying this combination deserves attention:Massive debt + massive AI spending + expensive capital.Eventually, somebody has to pay the interest.

What do you think?

Is AI creating a real productivity revolution, or are we watching a financing cycle that could become dangerous if yields stay high?

#us #Ai #Macro #BTC #bond

$LSK move was almost certainly a combination of a genuine corporate/ fundamental announcement and an extreme derivatives-driven short squeeze. There is also a credible, reported project-linked transfer of approximately 3.29 million LSK to Binance, but the wallet attribution is not independently confirmed.
We do not yet have enough verified data to say that Binance alone caused the pump or that the entire move was an insider operation.

$CRDO I was digging into Credo’s earnings because the reaction honestly didn’t make sense at first.The headline numbers were actually strong.Revenue came in at $479M vs roughly $471–473M expected, so Credo beat revenue estimates by around 1–2%.Non-GAAP EPS was $1.20 vs $1.17 expected, around a 2.6% beat.Even Q2 guidance was strong. Credo guided for $525–535M revenue, with a $530M midpoint, above the roughly $520M analyst expectation.

So why the selloff?

I think the answer is expectations.Credo has been delivering massive growth, but the growth rate is starting to slow:

274% → 272% → 202% → 157% → 115% YoY revenue growth.115% growth is still insane. The problem is that the market may have already priced in another massive upside surprise.Previous quarters also had much bigger earnings surprises. This time, the company beat, but only by a small margin.So this doesn’t look like a case of “bad earnings.”It looks more like: the company delivered excellent numbers, but the market was expecting something even better.That’s also why I’m watching CRDOB closely. Its overnight −17% move could be pricing in a much more aggressive reaction than the actual Nasdaq market ultimately delivers.

The big question now is simple:

When Nasdaq opens, where does the actual CRDO price settle?

If CRDO opens significantly above CRDOB’s overnight price, the tokenized stock could have some serious catching up to do.Not financial advice. Just trying to understand what the market is actually pricing in.

Credo’s earnings were actually strong: revenue hit $479M, +114.7% YoY, with $1.20 non-GAAP EPS. The concern was margins. Gross margin weakened slightly, and investors expected stronger profitability alongside that huge growth.The interesting part: $CRDO had already traded near $184 during the previous session before closing around $206.6. After earnings, $CRDOB kept trading 24/7 and priced in the negative reaction while Nasdaq was closed.So can it fall more when Nasdaq opens? Absolutely. The -17% overnight move does NOT guarantee the bottom is in.

If $CRDO opens around $190–200 and holds, $CRDOB could get a relief bounce. But if $CRDO opens below $184–180 and selling continues, $CRDOB could go lower.On the 1H chart, RSI is around 18.7, meaning it’s extremely oversold. I’m watching $184–176 as the key downside zone. Holding it and reclaiming $190–200 would look much healthier.

My main takeaway: this looks more like a valuation/margin reset than a fundamental collapse. The business is still growing extremely fast, but expectations were extremely high.For $CRDOB, I wouldn’t judge the bottom from the overnight -17% alone. The real test comes when Nasdaq opens and we see what the actual $CRDO stock does.

Not financial advice — just my analysis.

$TUT WHAT IF THE NARRATIVE CAME AFTER THE TOKEN
I’ve been digging deeper into Tutorial ($TUT ), and its origin story is interesting.
NOT an accusation. Some points are speculation based on public and on-chain data.WHAT IS TUT? Today, TUT is positioned as an AI/Web3 education project focused on blockchain learning, AI tools and onboarding users into Web3.But its origin appears different.TUT reportedly started as a tutorial/demo showing how to create and deploy a token on BNB Chain. The project itself says it “all began with a simple tutorial video.”That raises an important question: Did the token come first, and the larger narrative come later?
THE EVOLUTION One possible sequence: tutorial token → community discovers it → trading interest grows → attention increases → broader AI/Web3 education narrative develops → liquidity and exchange exposure expand.This is a theory, not a confirmed fact.It doesn’t automatically make TUT a bad project. Crypto projects evolve. But investors should distinguish between what TUT originally was and what it wants to become today.THE BIGGEST QUESTION: WHO CONTROLS THE SUPPLY?TUT’s holder concentration looks extremely high. However, exchange wallets and the burn address account for a large portion, so saying “whales control everything” would be misleading.The real question is the major non-exchange wallets.One wallet reportedly holds around 219M TUT, roughly 22% of max supply.Who controls it? Team, early contributor, market maker, investor, or something else?Until that wallet is identified, I wouldn’t call this manipulation. But it is a major due-diligence point because whoever controls it could materially affect available supply and selling pressure.WHAT I WANT TO KNOW How many real users does the platform have? What are the actual products and revenues? How much value does TUT capture from the ecosystem? Who controls the major wallets? And how much of the current valuation comes from actual utility versus liquidity and speculation?
These questions matter more than short-term price action

A focused idiot achieves more, than a distracted genius👾

PCE is out and the market reaction is more important than the headline itself.

July PCE came in at 3.7% YoY, slightly above expectations, while Core PCE stayed at 3.3%. That keeps inflation sticky and makes the Fed’s path toward easier policy less straightforward.After the release, DXY pushed higher toward 99.12, while the US 2Y yield moved up toward 4.21%. Markets also increased the probability of a September rate hike. (Reuters)

BTC, however, is still holding around the $79K area rather than reacting with a major breakdown.

So the key now isn’t simply PCE bullish or bearish. I’m watching whether DXY and the 2Y continue higher while BTC loses support. If that happens, the macro pressure could become significant.If BTC continues holding despite higher dollar and yields, that would be a completely different signal it would show that crypto is absorbing the hawkish data.

For now: hawkish macro reaction, but BTC has not confirmed the downside.