比特白

TVL is flat, but a few tokens are rising. This is more worth watching than a TVL explosion.

BTC is at 64,938, ETH at 1,916, and on-chain fees are still languishing. The TVL of top protocols hasn’t changed noticeably—money hasn’t left, but no new money is really coming in either. What’s interesting is the other side: CRV is up 7%, SUI is up 2.56%, and SOL is up 3%.

When TVL stays the same but tokens rise, it suggests it’s not new capital entering—it’s inside the market: existing liquidity is rotating positions. Someone is selling what isn’t moving and chasing these coins that are.

This isn’t a bull market signal. In a bull market, both TVL and tokens rise together, with fresh money filling the pools. What you’re seeing now is a game of existing liquidity: your gains are someone else’s losses.

Keep an eye on CRV’s 7%. If Curve’s (the decentralized exchange protocol) TVL jumps tomorrow as well, that could mean new money is moving in to set up positions. But if TVL still doesn’t follow—then CRV’s rise may be running ahead of fundamentals, and the capital lifting it could be aiming for something else.

Right now, there’s neither more nor less water in the pool, but on the surface a few points are bubbling. Look closely—are we boiling, or is someone stirring with a stick?

Today, there’s no on-chain data for the non-farm payrolls, but there’s a funding-flow signal that’s even more direct than on-chain markers: the U.S. Dollar Index has broken below 100, U.S. Treasury yields have surged, and gold is at 4,367.

What does that mean? The global capital risk-on/risk-off switch is flipping—from “dollar safe haven” to “risk assets.” Over the past few months, the expansion of crypto liquidity pools has been constrained by the Fed’s rate-hike expectations—when the dollar is strong and Treasury yields are high, money is reluctant to flow into higher-risk assets. Now the non-farm numbers came in well below expectations; the market’s rate-hike pricing has tightened from 32 bps to 28 bps. Once that expectation keeps easing, the marginal improvement in dollar liquidity flowing into crypto becomes possible.

Watch one thing: total stablecoin supply. If over the next two weeks the supply of USDT/USDC resumes expanding, that will be a much more concrete signal that money has truly moved in than any single candlestick. Right now, supply hasn’t changed, which means big capital is still waiting—waiting for next week’s CPI to provide clarity.

My take: the wind direction has changed, but the money hasn’t moved yet. Wait for the stablecoin supply data—don’t guess.

The stablecoin hasn’t moved for two weeks. This signal is even more worth watching than the PPI itself.

Over the past three months, whenever macro data looks good, funds flow from the on-chain stablecoin pools to exchanges to buy BTC; when the data is bad, stablecoins sit idle on-chain. Now, with no movement for two weeks—the market is waiting for the PPI on August 14.

A falling PPI → markets price in a September rate cut → BTC sentiment can recover, on the condition that stablecoins shift from “waiting” to being “ready to buy.”

A PPI rebound → rate expectations rise → there isn’t much buying pressure below 64,200, and the 59,000–61,000 range will be tested again. If the exchange stablecoin balance drops sharply, that’s retreat—not a pullback.

I’m watching two indicators: the net inflow of exchange USDC, and the order-book density of BTC limit orders in the 58,000–61,000 band. The numbers will speak for themselves.

【BTC】
Aug 7 BTC market analysis~~~ Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls~~#BTC
Recent volatility~~about 1,000 points up and down~~~
But looking at the 2-day chart~~~ I think the chance of a strong upside move is still quite high~~~
Key resistance overhead: 64417-65280. A breakout and successful hold above this range is needed~~~
Next, we look for a rebound~~~
So for pullbacks: 63800-63500-63300 could be areas to consider entering~~~
This rebound is a game of expectations~~~
Currently the 4-hour chart is trending upward~~but there hasn’t been an effective breakout~~so a pullback to confirm support is needed`~~
Maybe everyone is waiting for tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data~~~
There hasn’t been much change in the market over the past few days~~#US Initial Jobless Claims remain below 200,000

【ETH】
Aug 7 ETH market analysis~~#ETH
The ETH chart is still stronger than BTC’s~~
On the 2-day chart, MACD is trending up~~~
Key support below is 1855, key resistance above is 1936
A breakout is bullish~~a breakdown is bearish~~
Personally, I’m currently looking at the low-long direction~~~
Spot holdings are being held unchanged~~
Support zones below: 1889-1885, 1865-1855
Resistance zones above: 1926-1936, 1956-1988
You can refer to these ranges for your trades~~#US Initial Jobless Claims remain below 200,000

Circle’s quarterly revenue is up.

But as Allaire himself puts it, the increase is largely driven by external interest-rate conditions; the crypto market itself is slowing down.

The line is buried in a Reuters report, but it’s the most unusual sentence in the whole story. A stablecoin issuer is making money while the crypto market slows.

I connected this to the pipeline lead I’d been tracking earlier.

Three days ago, I flagged that BlackRock has integrated its tokenized fund, BUIDL, into Circle’s Arc pipeline, using USDC for subscriptions and redemptions. At the time, I raised a question no one had answered yet: has the money from BUIDL actually come in?

Now Circle says revenue is rising, but the crypto market is slowing. If the revenue source is traditional capital from outside the crypto ecosystem—BUIDL fund shares, Visa’s settlement rails, and institutional cross-border payments—then revenue rising isn’t because crypto trading is more active. It’s because stablecoins are shedding their role as “trading tools” and becoming a settlement layer.

BTC is still stuck around 64,247; ETH around 1,901. Market sentiment is sluggish. Under past logic, stablecoin issuance should shrink, and Circle should feel pain. But it hasn’t.

It’s not the water level in crypto that’s rising—it’s another pipeline filling up.

What’s missing now are two public numbers: how large BUIDL’s scale really is, and the Arc merchant data. If those two figures come out in Q3, Circle’s revenue numbers today won’t be news—they’ll be a receipt that was always meant to be understood.

Let’s note this: revenue growth isn’t the story. The source of the revenue is.

CNBC published a prediction on August 5 about stablecoins, saying that over the next decade the market size could swell to $1.45 trillion. I don’t particularly care about the number itself—anyone can build a model for a projection. What truly made me pause was the timing of the article.

BTC (Bitcoin) has been hovering around the mid-$60,000s, gold has surged to $4,261, and chip stocks have continued to suck up crypto liquidity. Based on the script of the past five years, at a time like this mainstream financial media should be writing about a “crypto pullback” or the “regulatory dilemma for stablecoins.” But it didn’t. Instead, it ran a deep dive analysis that was bullish on stablecoins—not during a crash when they would usually denounce it as a scam tool, but in a tone that says, “this is already happening.”

This isn’t a random topic. Mainstream media narrative shifts often lag by half a beat, but once they turn, they don’t go back.

In the clues I’d been following, there’s one detail worth connecting: Circle (the U.S.-compliant stablecoin issuer) uses USDC as the settlement layer for institutional finance. BlackRock (iShares/BlackRock) has plugged the tokenized fund BUIDL into this pipeline, and Visa is sitting on the other end, ready to roll out consumer payments. This isn’t a product upgrade—it’s the groundwork being laid.

CNBC’s article isn’t predicting the future; it’s marking a reality that has already been set in motion.

But there’s one signal that hasn’t shown up yet. Have stablecoins’ net issuance volumes started to grow structurally? Has the money from BUIDL really moved in? How many merchants has Arc actually onboarded? If these questions have answers before the end of Q3, then CNBC’s piece won’t be analysis anymore—it will just be a retrospective.

For now, note this time point. While the market is still pricing crypto assets using old logic, the blueprints for the new pipeline are already being laid out.

CNBC published an analysis saying the stablecoin market could swell to $1.45 trillion over the next decade. That number itself isn’t important—the key point is this: mainstream financial media are starting to take stablecoins seriously, and they’re not using market crashes as an excuse to call them a scam tool.

CNBC’s argument is that stablecoins will evolve from “trading tools” into “payment infrastructure.” The path is clear: cross-border remittances, payroll settlement, merchant payments—each one is a trillion-dollar market. They cite analysts’ projections that once a compliant framework is in place, stablecoin issuance could jump from today’s $200 billion to $1.45 trillion.

I can’t say whether their forecast is accurate, but there’s a phenomenon worth noting: timing.

The article was published on August 5, right during the cycle in which US stocks siphon capital aggressively from crypto. Chip stocks are surging, gold is rocketing to $4,262, and in crypto, BTC (Bitcoin) is still hovering around the mid-$60,000s. In the script from the past, mainstream media at times like this should have written about a “crypto retreat” or “yet another narrative collapsing.” But it didn’t. It ran a bullish analysis on stablecoins.

This isn’t a random topic choice. Mainstream media narratives often shift late, but once they shift, they don’t turn back. The BUIDL and Arc pipelines I’ve been tracking are essentially the institutional version of the same story—BlackRock (which uses USDC for fund subscriptions and redemptions), Visa (which is integrating stablecoin settlement), and Circle (the US compliant stablecoin issuer) laying the groundwork in between. They aren’t waiting for regulation to land; they’re pushing regulation to take shape.

Look at the on-chain side as well. The last time I flagged a cold wallet, within 48 hours it withdrew 2,344 BTC, worth $150 million. The withdrawal timing—chosen before the US stock market opened—wasn’t coincidence. That trace suggests someone is seeing a still-underestimated window for crypto spot assets, but there isn’t much time left. If institutions are truly setting up the stablecoin track, then BTC and ETH (Ethereum)—as the underlying settlement-layer assets—can’t be priced forever under pressure from chip stocks and gold.

What needs to be watched now isn’t CNBC’s prediction model, but three things: whether stablecoin net issuance has started showing structural growth, when BUIDL’s scale data will be made public, and exactly how many merchants Arc has connected. If any one of these three lines moves before the end of Q3, then CNBC’s analysis today won’t be a prediction anymore—it will be a retrospective.

Mark this timing first. Don’t rush to take your seat yet, but the seats have already been set out.

August 6 ETH market analysis~~~

Good news: the double bottom broke above 1881 within the last 4 hours~~
Bad news: 1940 still hasn’t been able to break through effectively~~

So it’s pushed up~~~but not enough~~~

Therefore, today’s rhythm is to pull back and confirm that support is effective~~~

Key supports below: 1898 1884 1855

From the chart view~~~ I still feel there’s a need for a rebound~~~

Yesterday, the wicks at 1855 and 1866 both topped up the double bottom’s spot positions~~~

At present: after an effective breakthrough at 1940~~ there’s hope to reach 2200~~~

So~~ over the past month~~ personally I’ve been focusing mainly on going long the spot at low levels~~~

Paired with swing trading in US stocks~~

Circle uses USDC for checkout, with BlackRock (贝莱德) delivering tokenized funds, and Visa (维萨) bringing the payment channel to the table—this isn’t a product upgrade; it’s groundbreaking.

I broke down this announcement to examine what’s really important. It’s not about “who joined,” but three things being put onto the table at the same time.

First. BlackRock connects the tokenized fund BUIDL to Arc, with USDC used for subscriptions and redemptions. This means traditional asset-management giants no longer treat stablecoins as payment instruments; they treat them as part of the infrastructure layer for institutional finance. BUIDL itself is a money market fund, with underlying assets in short-term government treasuries and repurchase agreements. Now, its subscription channel uses a stablecoin. This isn’t crypto-circle self-congratulation—it’s a compliant channel for institutional capital to enter and exit that has officially been connected.

Second. Visa sits at the other end of this channel. Circle didn’t specify the exact scope of cooperation, but Visa’s involvement in the stablecoin network isn’t new—it has been working on on-chain settlement for the past two years. Now it appears on Arc’s initial partner list, suggesting this channel isn’t just moving between institutions; it likely will be integrated into consumer-level payment scenarios. One end is BlackRock’s fund shares, the other is Visa’s card network, and USDC runs in the middle.

Third, the easiest to overlook. In the on-chain trail of projects I’ve been following, funds have always flowed from crypto to traditional finance—stablecoin outflows, no one picking up from mining companies, and chip stocks siphoning liquidity. Now BlackRock places a regulated fund onto a stablecoin network. The direction has flipped. Traditional assets are migrating to crypto infrastructure.

This isn’t incremental. It’s structural.

There’s still lots of information missing: the size of BUIDL, Visa’s depth of integration, Arc’s technical architecture. But there’s one question you can note for now: if this channel actually runs, USDC will change from a “trading tool” to a “settlement layer.” Its issuance won’t track trading sentiment anymore; it will track asset allocation from traditional capital. That means when looking at stablecoin data going forward, you’ll need to reclassify it—what is trading capital versus what is institutional capital that has been left to sit.

Mark this. This time I won’t tag individual addresses—I’ll tag a time window. In the first month after Arc launches, watch whether USDC issuance shows a structural increase rather than a trading pulse. If BUIDL’s money truly comes in, the story of stablecoin net outflows will need to be rewritten.

August 5 ETH market analysis~~
Before, ETH rose higher than BTC~~~ The market moved one step faster than BTC~~~

On the other hand~~~ when it falls, it also declines one step slower than BTC~~~
So the current ETH correction phase also needs more time~~~

What it reflects on the chart is~~weakness~~with a rebound lacking strength~~~

BTC has already adjusted to the 6-hour timeframe~~ Er, “two pancakes” is still on the 4-hour timeframe~~

Key resistances above: 1881 1940. Only if it breaks through~~ will there be hope of reaching above 2000~~~

Key supports below: 1855 1820 1806 1795

1847 can be taken as a very important line of demarcation~~~ if it doesn’t break down~~~
the market won’t be considered weak~~~

Based on the current chart~· you can do both low-buy/long and high-sell/short. As long as there’s a clear resistance zone~~ and a clear support zone~~~ and your position sizing is safe~~~ you can profit from both sides~~~

August 5 BTC Market Analysis~~
Today BTC opened a new 2-day line~~~ and the close was still pretty decent~~ but it still hasn't made a little breakthrough above the upper resistance zone~~~ 642-645-650

Today’s key support: 63550-62860. If it breaks below, watch 62200-61500-60900.

Recently the rebound strength has been a bit weak~~ reverse thinking~~ the downside strength is also weak~~

So it’s still just ranging—trading sideways within a range. Below there is support; above there is resistance~~~ but liquidity is still lacking~~~ and it seems nobody’s really playing~~ US stock market volatility is so good~~~ it’s sucked a lot of blood·~~

Personally I still lean toward a weak dead-cat bounce followed by a decline.~~~ There’s a chance it could play out a rebound.~~

So I’ve been looking for opportunities to add to my spot holdings.~~

But from the current chart~~ unless it reaches a pin level for longing on the low side~~~ and unless the chart breaks out with confirmation of a reversal, it probably won’t come out so quickly~~~ it will need a long time to grind~~

So for crypto recently, just wait patiently and slowly.~~~

1,172 BTC, 75 million USD, transferred directly from Coinbase (a US crypto exchange) into a cold wallet.

In normal times, this would be just a routine large withdrawal. But today is different. Over the past 48 hours, we’ve been watching stablecoin outflows accelerate, US stock chip shares surge in a coordinated push, and no one is taking up crypto miners—so the overall capital narrative has been moving outward. Then suddenly, a 75 million-dollar withdrawal from Coinbase to a cold wallet appears, and the direction is completely opposite.

This isn’t an exchange-to-exchange transfer, not a mixer, not a split-and-layered movement—straight into cold storage. In a panic day, there’s only one explanation for this kind of path: whoever did it doesn’t plan to sell in the near term.

What’s interesting is the size of this withdrawal. It’s not the kind of “tens of thousands” retail behavior, and it doesn’t look like scattered transfers after an OTC deal. 1,172 BTC pulled out in one go—that’s the level of an institution or a whale-scale single transaction. What it’s doing runs counter to the direction of stablecoin outflows: while others are withdrawing liquidity, it’s collecting spot.

Now the question: is this bargain-buying, or a stop-loss move?

If it’s a bargain-buy, then this wallet likely won’t make any moves over the next week. If it’s a transfer after a stop-loss—for example, remaining positions being consolidated after a fund liquidation—then there could be further structural changes afterward, such as this wallet being associated with an address cluster belonging to a particular custodian.

Mark this: if, within the next 48 hours, Coinbase shows a second withdrawal of a similar scale, it would suggest that spot absorption is accelerating—meaning an institution is quietly building a position at this level. If it’s only this one lone 75 million, with no follow-up actions, then it’s more likely an independent decision by a specific entity rather than a trend signal.

At this point, remember the address for now—don’t put it on the table.

793 BTC moved from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet.

The amount is 51.6M—by today’s prices it isn’t a whale-level move of great magnitude. But the interest of this transfer isn’t the size; it’s the route. It was sent from Coinbase Institutional, not a typical exchange hot wallet. This label usually appears in custody, OTC, or institutional execution channels. The destination is an “unknown wallet,” which suggests the other party doesn’t want traces that can be tracked left behind in the KYC trail.

What’s interesting is the timing. Whale Alert confirmed the transfer occurred on July 24, but it was only broadcast today. That delay has two possible explanations: either the data scraping was delayed, or the funds were split into layers back then and only merged back into a visible address now. If it’s the latter, it means the position was being handled in a planned way—not something decided on the spur of the moment.

Even more worth watching is the direction. When funds move from an exchange to an unknown wallet, it often means “offline” activity or preparation for long-term holding. But if this is an institutional-level OTC settlement, the destination wallet could be merely an intermediate stop, with another hop coming next. The real story can only be told once activity appears behind this address.

What to look for next: if this wallet doesn’t move within the next week, it’s likely custody or a long-term lock. If it starts sending out in batches to multiple addresses, that’s being “wired” up—and it’s worth opening a tracking thread. At this node, just mark it and don’t bring it to the table yet.

305.4B. 24 hours -0.08B, seven days -2.89B.

Compared with the morning data, it barely moved. At the daily level it’s basically flat, and the seven-day net outflow is close to 3 billion. As mentioned this morning, it’s like a “brake” here; in the afternoon it still looks like a brake. The money hasn’t left and it hasn’t come back—just hanging in the air.

What’s interesting is this spot—around 305B, it’s been holding steady. The seven-day outflow hasn’t continued, but it also hasn’t reversed. This is more unsettling than continued outflows, because you can’t tell whether it’s “over” or just “half-time.”

It’s not about reading signals to find direction. It’s seeing the signals tell you: don’t rush to place your bets.

Stablecoin total volume is 305.5 billion, up by 120 million in the past 24 hours—but down by a net outflow of 2.98 billion over the past 7 days.

Break it down: at the seven-day level, funds are moving outward, and the most recent day has stopped the bleeding. This suggests that panic-driven exits have paused, but the money isn’t rushing back—it’s simply not leaving for now.

On-chain doesn’t lie. Over the last seven days, nearly 3 billion in stablecoins were reduced. That money has either been converted into fiat currency or is still on the sidelines, waiting. Either way, there isn’t enough “ammunition” in the short term. Only when the 24-hour net increase can cover the seven-day gap will it be a true sign of a return flow.

Right now, it’s just a braking— not a turnaround.

This is unbelievable—Federal Reserve Governor Mussailem directly said he leans toward rate hikes.

At the same time, several lines are tightening in parallel:
- The Japanese government stepped in to intervene in the yen for the second consecutive day, pulling the exchange rate upward from its lows
- Stablecoins saw net outflows of $2.24 billion over the past seven days, and then another $76 million left in the following 24 hours
- Bitcoin closed at $62,902, and Ether closed at $1,864—both down 2.9%
- The Fear & Greed Index is 27, still in the Fear zone

This isn’t about one single signal. It’s that rate-hike expectations, yen intervention, net capital outflows, and fear from the index all show up in the same time window.

Seen individually, you could say, “It’s not that bad.” But together, they tell the same story: liquidity is tightening.

Not about calling a direction. It’s about laying out the cards.

On Binance’s traditional finance/RWA contracts today, three memory-chip contracts drew the same line: V.

Micron MUUSDT: rose from $734.79 to $901.23, up 22.6% in 24 hours.
SanDisk SNDKUSDT: rose from $1,030.13 to $1,330.05, up 28.97%.
SK Hynix SKHYNIXUSDT: rose from $924.07 to $1,178.61, up 27.46%.

The three lines’ lows appeared in nearly the same time window, and none of them lagged behind in the subsequent rebound. SanDisk’s intraday range is close to 40%—from the bottom to the top, 40%.

Two days ago, SK Hynix’s Q2 missing expectations pushed all three down together. SNDK kept falling for three days. Then today, they all snapped back in a straight line from near the 24-hour low to close.

This kind of synchronization and magnitude can’t be drawn by retail traders.

The 24-hour lows, rebound slopes, and closing positions of the three chip stocks all match. Prices can lie, but when three lines draw the same shape, it’s unlikely to be a coincidence.

PCE inflation data has been released, which is slightly favorable for risk assets in the short term.

Official BEA data:

PCE price index m/m -0.1%

Core PCE m/m +0.1%

PCE y/y +3.7%

Core PCE y/y +3.3%

Core look at m/m: +0.1% is very low. Inflation momentum has clearly cooled this month, supporting U.S. Treasuries, rate-cut expectations, and improving risk appetite for BTC/U.S. equities in the short term.

But don’t just call it “inflation has won”: y/y at 3.7% / core at 3.3% is still clearly above the 2% target. So this is a “short-term slightly dovish positive,” not the kind of major positive that would make the Fed immediately pivot. Next, watch whether the U.S. dollar and the 2-year Treasury yield move down in sync; if they don’t, the market may not fully buy in.

The address of HyperLabs, the Hyperliquid development team, initiated the unstaking of 433,000 HYPE tokens early this morning; based on the price at the time, it was approximately $23.45 million. These coins need to go through a 7-day pending period before they can arrive.

What’s interesting is that it’s not only the development team that’s moving.

Yesterday, Multicoin Capital transferred 1.97 million HYPE tokens to Coinbase; also yesterday, Selini Capital moved the 495,000 HYPE tokens—redeemed from Hyperliquid staking—worth $26.8 million at the time—into OKX.

The development team + the most active ecosystem VC; within four days, more than 2.8 million HYPE were unlocked or transferred out. The money hasn’t landed yet, but the direction is already consolidating.