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The Garrett Jin entity labeled as EmberCN held 100,784 BTC between May and June 2018 at an average price of $7,242. If these coins have not moved, at the current price of $81,330 they would be worth about $8.2 billion. A year ago, it was still above $10 billion.
Over the past year, it has repeatedly incurred losses in large crypto investments, but the confidence that keeps it going isn’t new money—it’s selling BTC. The evidence is clear in the on-chain records: the capital used for subsequent investments mainly came from selling BTC. So the story I see isn’t that some genius is adding aggressively against the trend; it’s that a low-cost BTC core holding is being sold off to plug holes in other directions.
The tens of millions of dollars of unrealized loss from its ZEC short positions are indeed negligible compared to a $10 billion BTC base. But what’s worth watching isn’t how much it’s losing—it’s whether it’s still selling BTC.
Next, there’s only one data point to watch: whether any of the entity’s associated addresses has new BTC transfers out, and whether those transfers are headed to centralized exchanges. If sell-side activity continues, it means the gap is still widening; if BTC stops moving, it suggests the funds in the market are hard-holding. There are no specific addresses yet, so we can only wait for EmberCN’s next batch of disclosures.
The Garrett Jin entity labeled as EmberCN held 100,784 BTC between May and June 2018 at an average price of $7,242. If these coins have not moved, at the current price of $81,330 they would be worth about $8.2 billion. A year ago, it was still above $10 billion.
Over the past year, it has repeatedly incurred losses in large crypto investments, but the confidence that keeps it going isn’t new money—it’s selling BTC. The evidence is clear in the on-chain records: the capital used for subsequent investments mainly came from selling BTC. So the story I see isn’t that some genius is adding aggressively against the trend; it’s that a low-cost BTC core holding is being sold off to plug holes in other directions.
The tens of millions of dollars of unrealized loss from its ZEC short positions are indeed negligible compared to a $10 billion BTC base. But what’s worth watching isn’t how much it’s losing—it’s whether it’s still selling BTC.
Next, there’s only one data point to watch: whether any of the entity’s associated addresses has new BTC transfers out, and whether those transfers are headed to centralized exchanges. If sell-side activity continues, it means the gap is still widening; if BTC stops moving, it suggests the funds in the market are hard-holding. There are no specific addresses yet, so we can only wait for EmberCN’s next batch of disclosures.
Over the past year, it has repeatedly incurred losses in large crypto investments, but the confidence that keeps it going isn’t new money—it’s selling BTC. The evidence is clear in the on-chain records: the capital used for subsequent investments mainly came from selling BTC. So the story I see isn’t that some genius is adding aggressively against the trend; it’s that a low-cost BTC core holding is being sold off to plug holes in other directions.
The tens of millions of dollars of unrealized loss from its ZEC short positions are indeed negligible compared to a $10 billion BTC base. But what’s worth watching isn’t how much it’s losing—it’s whether it’s still selling BTC.
Next, there’s only one data point to watch: whether any of the entity’s associated addresses has new BTC transfers out, and whether those transfers are headed to centralized exchanges. If sell-side activity continues, it means the gap is still widening; if BTC stops moving, it suggests the funds in the market are hard-holding. There are no specific addresses yet, so we can only wait for EmberCN’s next batch of disclosures.
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Under the 24h time frame, the S&P 500 is down 0.25%, while XAUT (gold token) has hardly moved. US stocks related to crypto haven’t tracked the broader market: Coinbase (US crypto exchange) is 178.80, up 5.28%. During the day it ran from 166.14 to 180.84, and the current price is near the high. MSTR (MicroStrategy) is 136.46, up 4.77%, also trading near the high. This is a line with independent buy orders.
Among mining stocks, MARA (Bitcoin mining company) is the strangest. Based on its current price, the traded value is about $8.26 million—more than twice that of RIOT (Bitcoin mining company) and 2.6 times that of CLSK (Bitcoin mining company). Yet the price only rose 4.12%, just 0.14 percentage points higher than RIOT. Volume is piling up, but the price hasn’t pulled away; selling pressure doesn’t look light.
Next, we’ll see whether tomorrow Coinbase can hold the breakout zone from 178 to 180. If MARA continues to see increased volume but lagging price action, then it’s old capital in mining stocks borrowing liquidity to distribute—not fresh money moving in.
Under the 24h time frame, the S&P 500 is down 0.25%, while XAUT (gold token) has hardly moved. US stocks related to crypto haven’t tracked the broader market: Coinbase (US crypto exchange) is 178.80, up 5.28%. During the day it ran from 166.14 to 180.84, and the current price is near the high. MSTR (MicroStrategy) is 136.46, up 4.77%, also trading near the high. This is a line with independent buy orders.
Among mining stocks, MARA (Bitcoin mining company) is the strangest. Based on its current price, the traded value is about $8.26 million—more than twice that of RIOT (Bitcoin mining company) and 2.6 times that of CLSK (Bitcoin mining company). Yet the price only rose 4.12%, just 0.14 percentage points higher than RIOT. Volume is piling up, but the price hasn’t pulled away; selling pressure doesn’t look light.
Next, we’ll see whether tomorrow Coinbase can hold the breakout zone from 178 to 180. If MARA continues to see increased volume but lagging price action, then it’s old capital in mining stocks borrowing liquidity to distribute—not fresh money moving in.
Among mining stocks, MARA (Bitcoin mining company) is the strangest. Based on its current price, the traded value is about $8.26 million—more than twice that of RIOT (Bitcoin mining company) and 2.6 times that of CLSK (Bitcoin mining company). Yet the price only rose 4.12%, just 0.14 percentage points higher than RIOT. Volume is piling up, but the price hasn’t pulled away; selling pressure doesn’t look light.
Next, we’ll see whether tomorrow Coinbase can hold the breakout zone from 178 to 180. If MARA continues to see increased volume but lagging price action, then it’s old capital in mining stocks borrowing liquidity to distribute—not fresh money moving in.
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Mining companies collectively moved into the spotlight list today: Hut8 (HUT, Bitcoin mining company) +6.88%, CleanSpark (CLSK, Bitcoin mining company) +5.63%, Riot Platforms (RIOT, Bitcoin mining company) +4.32%, and MARA Holdings (Bitcoin mining company) +3.71%.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy (MSTR) -0.20% and Coinbase (U.S. crypto exchange) -1.62%. Two of the most direct crypto proxies—one was flat and one was down.
I suspect the money isn’t simply buying “crypto exposure,” but is instead concentrated in mining companies. If it were just a rebound in crypto sentiment, Coinbase shouldn’t be the one with the largest decline. Mining companies are strong while Coinbase is weak—this divergence is more worth watching than the gain in any single mining stock.
Hut8 traded only 138,000 shares—smallest among the four—yet its upside was the biggest. The low liquidity makes the stock’s characteristics quite evident, so it can’t be taken as confirmation of direction.
Tonight, I’ll watch two things: whether BTC is rising in sync. If BTC goes sideways or even weakens, and mining stocks keep strengthening, then this move looks even more like the mining companies’ own hashpower story, detached from spot. If MSTR and COIN still close at levels near their intraday lows, the divergence won’t be accidental.
Mining companies collectively moved into the spotlight list today: Hut8 (HUT, Bitcoin mining company) +6.88%, CleanSpark (CLSK, Bitcoin mining company) +5.63%, Riot Platforms (RIOT, Bitcoin mining company) +4.32%, and MARA Holdings (Bitcoin mining company) +3.71%.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy (MSTR) -0.20% and Coinbase (U.S. crypto exchange) -1.62%. Two of the most direct crypto proxies—one was flat and one was down.
I suspect the money isn’t simply buying “crypto exposure,” but is instead concentrated in mining companies. If it were just a rebound in crypto sentiment, Coinbase shouldn’t be the one with the largest decline. Mining companies are strong while Coinbase is weak—this divergence is more worth watching than the gain in any single mining stock.
Hut8 traded only 138,000 shares—smallest among the four—yet its upside was the biggest. The low liquidity makes the stock’s characteristics quite evident, so it can’t be taken as confirmation of direction.
Tonight, I’ll watch two things: whether BTC is rising in sync. If BTC goes sideways or even weakens, and mining stocks keep strengthening, then this move looks even more like the mining companies’ own hashpower story, detached from spot. If MSTR and COIN still close at levels near their intraday lows, the divergence won’t be accidental.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy (MSTR) -0.20% and Coinbase (U.S. crypto exchange) -1.62%. Two of the most direct crypto proxies—one was flat and one was down.
I suspect the money isn’t simply buying “crypto exposure,” but is instead concentrated in mining companies. If it were just a rebound in crypto sentiment, Coinbase shouldn’t be the one with the largest decline. Mining companies are strong while Coinbase is weak—this divergence is more worth watching than the gain in any single mining stock.
Hut8 traded only 138,000 shares—smallest among the four—yet its upside was the biggest. The low liquidity makes the stock’s characteristics quite evident, so it can’t be taken as confirmation of direction.
Tonight, I’ll watch two things: whether BTC is rising in sync. If BTC goes sideways or even weakens, and mining stocks keep strengthening, then this move looks even more like the mining companies’ own hashpower story, detached from spot. If MSTR and COIN still close at levels near their intraday lows, the divergence won’t be accidental.
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USDC cross-chain to Arc—purchased at a premium of 80% to 100%, like being raised up to it. This is not arbitrage; it’s buying an entry ticket.
About two hours after Circle’s (the stablecoin issuer) Arc mainnet went live, the total on-chain USDC reached 372 million units, roughly 0.05% of the total USDC supply. The number of addresses is about 176,000. Some of this capital had already been cross-chained into Arc before the mainnet launched. At that time, the price of USDC on Arc was 80% to 100% higher than 1:1. In other words, before they even encountered early Meme coins, they had already paid nearly double the cost just to get in.
As for the route of these 372 million USDC units, details aren’t visible at the moment. My guess is that it includes both newly added funds after launch and that earlier batch that crossed over ahead of time. The 176,000 addresses also don’t allow us to tell how many are real users versus how many were “jump-the-gun” accounts.
The next thing that can be verified is the price movement after the early Meme coins on Arc open. If the post-listing gains can’t end up covering that 80% to 100% entry premium in reverse, then these high-cost USDC could become the source of supply for the first wave of concentrated selling. If the price rise does match the corresponding premium, then the story of entering at a premium would be considered valid.
USDC cross-chain to Arc—purchased at a premium of 80% to 100%, like being raised up to it. This is not arbitrage; it’s buying an entry ticket.
About two hours after Circle’s (the stablecoin issuer) Arc mainnet went live, the total on-chain USDC reached 372 million units, roughly 0.05% of the total USDC supply. The number of addresses is about 176,000. Some of this capital had already been cross-chained into Arc before the mainnet launched. At that time, the price of USDC on Arc was 80% to 100% higher than 1:1. In other words, before they even encountered early Meme coins, they had already paid nearly double the cost just to get in.
As for the route of these 372 million USDC units, details aren’t visible at the moment. My guess is that it includes both newly added funds after launch and that earlier batch that crossed over ahead of time. The 176,000 addresses also don’t allow us to tell how many are real users versus how many were “jump-the-gun” accounts.
The next thing that can be verified is the price movement after the early Meme coins on Arc open. If the post-listing gains can’t end up covering that 80% to 100% entry premium in reverse, then these high-cost USDC could become the source of supply for the first wave of concentrated selling. If the price rise does match the corresponding premium, then the story of entering at a premium would be considered valid.
About two hours after Circle’s (the stablecoin issuer) Arc mainnet went live, the total on-chain USDC reached 372 million units, roughly 0.05% of the total USDC supply. The number of addresses is about 176,000. Some of this capital had already been cross-chained into Arc before the mainnet launched. At that time, the price of USDC on Arc was 80% to 100% higher than 1:1. In other words, before they even encountered early Meme coins, they had already paid nearly double the cost just to get in.
As for the route of these 372 million USDC units, details aren’t visible at the moment. My guess is that it includes both newly added funds after launch and that earlier batch that crossed over ahead of time. The 176,000 addresses also don’t allow us to tell how many are real users versus how many were “jump-the-gun” accounts.
The next thing that can be verified is the price movement after the early Meme coins on Arc open. If the post-listing gains can’t end up covering that 80% to 100% entry premium in reverse, then these high-cost USDC could become the source of supply for the first wave of concentrated selling. If the price rise does match the corresponding premium, then the story of entering at a premium would be considered valid.
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Rate hikes themselves aren’t news.
25 basis points, moving from 3.75% to 4%, is the first time since July 2023. But what really deserves attention is the dot plot: 16 officials believe there will be at least one more hike between 2026 onward. The market has already shifted from waiting for rate cuts to betting on three more hikes next year.
This expectation flip is sharper than the rate itself. The higher rates go, the more pressure there is on on-chain borrowing costs, stablecoin supply, and ETF fund flows.
As for crypto, things are currently almost dull. BTC is still above 76,000, and ETH hasn’t broken down. There hasn’t been the kind of one-way panic seen in prior tightening cycles. Either liquidity is already so thin it can’t react, or someone is quietly absorbing the moves from below.
For now, I won’t guess which one. What matters next isn’t how prices move, but whether stablecoins contract, whether on-chain rates bite higher, and whether spot ETF money begins to price in “higher for longer” again.
That line is the real story of capital. The opening has only just begun.
Rate hikes themselves aren’t news.
25 basis points, moving from 3.75% to 4%, is the first time since July 2023. But what really deserves attention is the dot plot: 16 officials believe there will be at least one more hike between 2026 onward. The market has already shifted from waiting for rate cuts to betting on three more hikes next year.
This expectation flip is sharper than the rate itself. The higher rates go, the more pressure there is on on-chain borrowing costs, stablecoin supply, and ETF fund flows.
As for crypto, things are currently almost dull. BTC is still above 76,000, and ETH hasn’t broken down. There hasn’t been the kind of one-way panic seen in prior tightening cycles. Either liquidity is already so thin it can’t react, or someone is quietly absorbing the moves from below.
For now, I won’t guess which one. What matters next isn’t how prices move, but whether stablecoins contract, whether on-chain rates bite higher, and whether spot ETF money begins to price in “higher for longer” again.
That line is the real story of capital. The opening has only just begun.
25 basis points, moving from 3.75% to 4%, is the first time since July 2023. But what really deserves attention is the dot plot: 16 officials believe there will be at least one more hike between 2026 onward. The market has already shifted from waiting for rate cuts to betting on three more hikes next year.
This expectation flip is sharper than the rate itself. The higher rates go, the more pressure there is on on-chain borrowing costs, stablecoin supply, and ETF fund flows.
As for crypto, things are currently almost dull. BTC is still above 76,000, and ETH hasn’t broken down. There hasn’t been the kind of one-way panic seen in prior tightening cycles. Either liquidity is already so thin it can’t react, or someone is quietly absorbing the moves from below.
For now, I won’t guess which one. What matters next isn’t how prices move, but whether stablecoins contract, whether on-chain rates bite higher, and whether spot ETF money begins to price in “higher for longer” again.
That line is the real story of capital. The opening has only just begun.
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Gas fees aren’t ETH—they’re paid in USDC.
Circle’s public chain Arc went live on the mainnet today. Founding validators: BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, Standard Chartered, SBI, Galaxy, and MoneyGram—all are key players in traditional financial settlement networks. Gas is paid with USDC, with sub-second finality.
Before launch, some people were accumulating aggressively—the cost was paying a 80%–100% premium in USDC. Two hours after launch, the data came out: 372 million USDC on-chain, across 176,000 addresses. But 372 million is only 0.05% of the total USDC supply.
These figures are contradictory: the premium is close to double, yet the migration volume is only five-thousandths. This suggests that what’s coming in isn’t large-scale movement of existing USDC balances, but early speculators—on-chain Memes have already run through a full cycle: ARCAT’s market cap briefly broke $5 million, up +1288% in 24 hours, with $1.6 million in trading volume. It then pulled back about 40% from its peak and is currently at $3.5 million.
Source: BlockBeats (with Ai Yi, GMGN)
Gas fees aren’t ETH—they’re paid in USDC.
Circle’s public chain Arc went live on the mainnet today. Founding validators: BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, Standard Chartered, SBI, Galaxy, and MoneyGram—all are key players in traditional financial settlement networks. Gas is paid with USDC, with sub-second finality.
Before launch, some people were accumulating aggressively—the cost was paying a 80%–100% premium in USDC. Two hours after launch, the data came out: 372 million USDC on-chain, across 176,000 addresses. But 372 million is only 0.05% of the total USDC supply.
These figures are contradictory: the premium is close to double, yet the migration volume is only five-thousandths. This suggests that what’s coming in isn’t large-scale movement of existing USDC balances, but early speculators—on-chain Memes have already run through a full cycle: ARCAT’s market cap briefly broke $5 million, up +1288% in 24 hours, with $1.6 million in trading volume. It then pulled back about 40% from its peak and is currently at $3.5 million.
Source: BlockBeats (with Ai Yi, GMGN)
Circle’s public chain Arc went live on the mainnet today. Founding validators: BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, Standard Chartered, SBI, Galaxy, and MoneyGram—all are key players in traditional financial settlement networks. Gas is paid with USDC, with sub-second finality.
Before launch, some people were accumulating aggressively—the cost was paying a 80%–100% premium in USDC. Two hours after launch, the data came out: 372 million USDC on-chain, across 176,000 addresses. But 372 million is only 0.05% of the total USDC supply.
These figures are contradictory: the premium is close to double, yet the migration volume is only five-thousandths. This suggests that what’s coming in isn’t large-scale movement of existing USDC balances, but early speculators—on-chain Memes have already run through a full cycle: ARCAT’s market cap briefly broke $5 million, up +1288% in 24 hours, with $1.6 million in trading volume. It then pulled back about 40% from its peak and is currently at $3.5 million.
Source: BlockBeats (with Ai Yi, GMGN)
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September 15th $BTC market analysis
BTC has made an oversold rebound over the past 12 hours, with support around 76,300
The bottoming adjustment hasn’t ended yet. It surged a bit yesterday—today we’ll look for a pullback and rebound within the day
As long as 76,300 doesn’t break, the 12-hour rebound行情 has a chance to kick off
If it breaks, then we’ll look next at the daily chart; as time passes, the daily support will move upward
Right now it’s around: 73,360, and it may move up to: 75,800
So for trade planning, you can consider: 76,800 75,800 74,800 73,800
These key supports—scale in long orders
Intraday support tends to be slightly higher: 77,280 76,800 76,300
Overhead resistance zone: 79,500 81,000 82,200
Currently the bias is bullish. Since we’re near 76,500, there’s no need to chase a short—downside space is limited
Personally, I still prefer long positions at lower levels
September 15th $BTC market analysis
BTC has made an oversold rebound over the past 12 hours, with support around 76,300
The bottoming adjustment hasn’t ended yet. It surged a bit yesterday—today we’ll look for a pullback and rebound within the day
As long as 76,300 doesn’t break, the 12-hour rebound行情 has a chance to kick off
If it breaks, then we’ll look next at the daily chart; as time passes, the daily support will move upward
Right now it’s around: 73,360, and it may move up to: 75,800
So for trade planning, you can consider: 76,800 75,800 74,800 73,800
These key supports—scale in long orders
Intraday support tends to be slightly higher: 77,280 76,800 76,300
Overhead resistance zone: 79,500 81,000 82,200
Currently the bias is bullish. Since we’re near 76,500, there’s no need to chase a short—downside space is limited
Personally, I still prefer long positions at lower levels
BTC has made an oversold rebound over the past 12 hours, with support around 76,300
The bottoming adjustment hasn’t ended yet. It surged a bit yesterday—today we’ll look for a pullback and rebound within the day
As long as 76,300 doesn’t break, the 12-hour rebound行情 has a chance to kick off
If it breaks, then we’ll look next at the daily chart; as time passes, the daily support will move upward
Right now it’s around: 73,360, and it may move up to: 75,800
So for trade planning, you can consider: 76,800 75,800 74,800 73,800
These key supports—scale in long orders
Intraday support tends to be slightly higher: 77,280 76,800 76,300
Overhead resistance zone: 79,500 81,000 82,200
Currently the bias is bullish. Since we’re near 76,500, there’s no need to chase a short—downside space is limited
Personally, I still prefer long positions at lower levels
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Bybit lost about $1.3 billion in a day, while SparkLend only gained about $240 million during the same period.
Where did the roughly $1 billion in the middle go? Nobody has an answer.
The market is still rising: BTC is at 78,333, up 1.91% in 24h. The funds didn’t disappear—they just moved to a different place. Bybit fell from about 15.5B to 14.2B, down 8.6%; SparkLend rose from about 4.86B to 5.1B, up 5.0%. Gains and losses themselves aren’t unusual—the unusual part is that the two don’t move in sync, with more money flowing out than being absorbed.
There’s no evidence that Bybit’s money went directly into SparkLend, but the reverse movement on the same day at least suggests that risk appetite is shifting. On the exchange side things are shrinking, while on the lending protocol side they’re expanding. Funds are starting to look for somewhere to “park” rather than somewhere to rush into.
Next, we’ll watch two things: whether Bybit’s outflow is just a one-day fluctuation or a continuous action, and whether SparkLend can hold steady at 5B without giving it back.
Bybit lost about $1.3 billion in a day, while SparkLend only gained about $240 million during the same period.
Where did the roughly $1 billion in the middle go? Nobody has an answer.
The market is still rising: BTC is at 78,333, up 1.91% in 24h. The funds didn’t disappear—they just moved to a different place. Bybit fell from about 15.5B to 14.2B, down 8.6%; SparkLend rose from about 4.86B to 5.1B, up 5.0%. Gains and losses themselves aren’t unusual—the unusual part is that the two don’t move in sync, with more money flowing out than being absorbed.
There’s no evidence that Bybit’s money went directly into SparkLend, but the reverse movement on the same day at least suggests that risk appetite is shifting. On the exchange side things are shrinking, while on the lending protocol side they’re expanding. Funds are starting to look for somewhere to “park” rather than somewhere to rush into.
Next, we’ll watch two things: whether Bybit’s outflow is just a one-day fluctuation or a continuous action, and whether SparkLend can hold steady at 5B without giving it back.
Where did the roughly $1 billion in the middle go? Nobody has an answer.
The market is still rising: BTC is at 78,333, up 1.91% in 24h. The funds didn’t disappear—they just moved to a different place. Bybit fell from about 15.5B to 14.2B, down 8.6%; SparkLend rose from about 4.86B to 5.1B, up 5.0%. Gains and losses themselves aren’t unusual—the unusual part is that the two don’t move in sync, with more money flowing out than being absorbed.
There’s no evidence that Bybit’s money went directly into SparkLend, but the reverse movement on the same day at least suggests that risk appetite is shifting. On the exchange side things are shrinking, while on the lending protocol side they’re expanding. Funds are starting to look for somewhere to “park” rather than somewhere to rush into.
Next, we’ll watch two things: whether Bybit’s outflow is just a one-day fluctuation or a continuous action, and whether SparkLend can hold steady at 5B without giving it back.
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STONK market cap is 249 million (RMB), up 44% over the past 24 hours. The #1 address, point farm capital, is sitting on an unrealized gain of nearly $10 million. These figures are already loud enough, but what really makes me pause is this address’s decision to stake 79% of its total assets into a single STONK asset.
point farm capital is the top trader on the FOMO platform (a crypto trading social platform) for STONK. The account holds 35.7 million STONK. An unrealized gain of nearly $10 million. This is not a tentative position—it’s a concentrated bet near full exposure.
Since the block explorer doesn’t provide the time of entry or cost basis, we can’t tell whether that $10 million unrealized gain was rolled out of the latest 44% surge or whether they entered earlier and are still sitting on it. The only thing we can truly confirm is the concentration: 79%. That number means if STONK drops for a period, the account’s overall drawdown will be directly amplified by this position.
So the next thing I’ll watch for is when he starts moving these STONK. The #1 label, the near ten-million unrealized gain, and the 79% concentration matter less than the information contained in the first time he transfers STONK on-chain. When that move appears, that’s when the second half of this story starts.
STONK market cap is 249 million (RMB), up 44% over the past 24 hours. The #1 address, point farm capital, is sitting on an unrealized gain of nearly $10 million. These figures are already loud enough, but what really makes me pause is this address’s decision to stake 79% of its total assets into a single STONK asset.
point farm capital is the top trader on the FOMO platform (a crypto trading social platform) for STONK. The account holds 35.7 million STONK. An unrealized gain of nearly $10 million. This is not a tentative position—it’s a concentrated bet near full exposure.
Since the block explorer doesn’t provide the time of entry or cost basis, we can’t tell whether that $10 million unrealized gain was rolled out of the latest 44% surge or whether they entered earlier and are still sitting on it. The only thing we can truly confirm is the concentration: 79%. That number means if STONK drops for a period, the account’s overall drawdown will be directly amplified by this position.
So the next thing I’ll watch for is when he starts moving these STONK. The #1 label, the near ten-million unrealized gain, and the 79% concentration matter less than the information contained in the first time he transfers STONK on-chain. When that move appears, that’s when the second half of this story starts.
point farm capital is the top trader on the FOMO platform (a crypto trading social platform) for STONK. The account holds 35.7 million STONK. An unrealized gain of nearly $10 million. This is not a tentative position—it’s a concentrated bet near full exposure.
Since the block explorer doesn’t provide the time of entry or cost basis, we can’t tell whether that $10 million unrealized gain was rolled out of the latest 44% surge or whether they entered earlier and are still sitting on it. The only thing we can truly confirm is the concentration: 79%. That number means if STONK drops for a period, the account’s overall drawdown will be directly amplified by this position.
So the next thing I’ll watch for is when he starts moving these STONK. The #1 label, the near ten-million unrealized gain, and the 79% concentration matter less than the information contained in the first time he transfers STONK on-chain. When that move appears, that’s when the second half of this story starts.
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Meme coin LAPTOP posted by Biden’s son Hunter Biden goes up on Base tomorrow. The contract was deployed about 132 days ago, and 1 billion coins are minted once and all at once.
The most uncomfortable part to break down: 80% is controlled by the same Gnosis Safe multi-sig. A multi-sig and a lock-up are two different things. A multi-sig only means multiple people can sign to transfer; it doesn’t mean transfers are impossible.
The official website’s promotions include lock-ups, vesting/entitlements, predicted/burned destruction, and charitable donations. However, it’s currently suspected that none of these commitments are directly written into the token contract. On-chain, you can’t see any enforceable constraints on these promises.
Before launch, I only look at two things: whether this multi-sig will move the bulk into a real lock-up contract, and whether the team will later implement the contract via an official follow-up. Without that before, treat it as if it isn’t locked.
Meme coin LAPTOP posted by Biden’s son Hunter Biden goes up on Base tomorrow. The contract was deployed about 132 days ago, and 1 billion coins are minted once and all at once.
The most uncomfortable part to break down: 80% is controlled by the same Gnosis Safe multi-sig. A multi-sig and a lock-up are two different things. A multi-sig only means multiple people can sign to transfer; it doesn’t mean transfers are impossible.
The official website’s promotions include lock-ups, vesting/entitlements, predicted/burned destruction, and charitable donations. However, it’s currently suspected that none of these commitments are directly written into the token contract. On-chain, you can’t see any enforceable constraints on these promises.
Before launch, I only look at two things: whether this multi-sig will move the bulk into a real lock-up contract, and whether the team will later implement the contract via an official follow-up. Without that before, treat it as if it isn’t locked.
The most uncomfortable part to break down: 80% is controlled by the same Gnosis Safe multi-sig. A multi-sig and a lock-up are two different things. A multi-sig only means multiple people can sign to transfer; it doesn’t mean transfers are impossible.
The official website’s promotions include lock-ups, vesting/entitlements, predicted/burned destruction, and charitable donations. However, it’s currently suspected that none of these commitments are directly written into the token contract. On-chain, you can’t see any enforceable constraints on these promises.
Before launch, I only look at two things: whether this multi-sig will move the bulk into a real lock-up contract, and whether the team will later implement the contract via an official follow-up. Without that before, treat it as if it isn’t locked.
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Liquid network (Bitcoin sidechain) had about 4,000 BTC transferred out, which comes to about $318 million at the current price of $79,612. The other party claims to be a “white hat.” They used OP_RETURN on-chain messages with PGP-encrypted information to communicate with Blockstream (the developer of Liquid), saying that after the vulnerability is fixed they will return “most” of it—note: “most,” not all.
At block height 965,822, there’s another action: a Blockstream address first sent 1,000 sats to the relevant address(es). That amount doesn’t look like settlement; it looks more like confirming that the two sides’ addresses can still communicate.
Next, I’m watching just two signals: when the Liquid vulnerability fix notice will be released; and whether the addresses associated with those 4,000 BTC will start splitting up the funds or remitting them back. Once the remittance begins, the return ratio and the remaining gap can be calculated.
Liquid network (Bitcoin sidechain) had about 4,000 BTC transferred out, which comes to about $318 million at the current price of $79,612. The other party claims to be a “white hat.” They used OP_RETURN on-chain messages with PGP-encrypted information to communicate with Blockstream (the developer of Liquid), saying that after the vulnerability is fixed they will return “most” of it—note: “most,” not all.
At block height 965,822, there’s another action: a Blockstream address first sent 1,000 sats to the relevant address(es). That amount doesn’t look like settlement; it looks more like confirming that the two sides’ addresses can still communicate.
Next, I’m watching just two signals: when the Liquid vulnerability fix notice will be released; and whether the addresses associated with those 4,000 BTC will start splitting up the funds or remitting them back. Once the remittance begins, the return ratio and the remaining gap can be calculated.
At block height 965,822, there’s another action: a Blockstream address first sent 1,000 sats to the relevant address(es). That amount doesn’t look like settlement; it looks more like confirming that the two sides’ addresses can still communicate.
Next, I’m watching just two signals: when the Liquid vulnerability fix notice will be released; and whether the addresses associated with those 4,000 BTC will start splitting up the funds or remitting them back. Once the remittance begins, the return ratio and the remaining gap can be calculated.
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The address suspected to be a16z’s HYPE address transferred another 13.05 million USDC to Hyperliquid 8 hours ago. This time it wasn’t a one-shot sweep; it used TWAP, slowly buying in with time-weighted split orders.
A week ago, it had just spent 66.4 million USDC to buy 816,000 HYPE at an average price of $81.3. Now, the total amount this address has bought and staked has reached 5.201 million HYPE, worth about $445 million, with an overall average cost of $67.2.
An address willing to make large purchases switched to slowly splitting orders this time, either because it doesn’t want to leave traces in the order book, or because it’s afraid of directly pushing up its own cost basis. What I’m even more curious about is that its behavior of buying and immediately staking has never stopped.
For now, I’m only watching two things: after this 13.05 million is spent, when will the next transfer happen; and will the staking amount keep rising in sync. If the interval gets shorter, then this isn’t a swing trade — it’s continuous accumulation.
The address suspected to be a16z’s HYPE address transferred another 13.05 million USDC to Hyperliquid 8 hours ago. This time it wasn’t a one-shot sweep; it used TWAP, slowly buying in with time-weighted split orders.
A week ago, it had just spent 66.4 million USDC to buy 816,000 HYPE at an average price of $81.3. Now, the total amount this address has bought and staked has reached 5.201 million HYPE, worth about $445 million, with an overall average cost of $67.2.
An address willing to make large purchases switched to slowly splitting orders this time, either because it doesn’t want to leave traces in the order book, or because it’s afraid of directly pushing up its own cost basis. What I’m even more curious about is that its behavior of buying and immediately staking has never stopped.
For now, I’m only watching two things: after this 13.05 million is spent, when will the next transfer happen; and will the staking amount keep rising in sync. If the interval gets shorter, then this isn’t a swing trade — it’s continuous accumulation.
A week ago, it had just spent 66.4 million USDC to buy 816,000 HYPE at an average price of $81.3. Now, the total amount this address has bought and staked has reached 5.201 million HYPE, worth about $445 million, with an overall average cost of $67.2.
An address willing to make large purchases switched to slowly splitting orders this time, either because it doesn’t want to leave traces in the order book, or because it’s afraid of directly pushing up its own cost basis. What I’m even more curious about is that its behavior of buying and immediately staking has never stopped.
For now, I’m only watching two things: after this 13.05 million is spent, when will the next transfer happen; and will the staking amount keep rising in sync. If the interval gets shorter, then this isn’t a swing trade — it’s continuous accumulation.
117
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