丁青驭势

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Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

Still at a thousand points—don't go against the trend, don't go against the trend! Do you still not understand how valuable the four words “follow the trend” really are, everyone!

$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元 #以太坊突破2700美元

Multitudes will never give up

$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元 #以太坊突破2700美元

Big Pie Makes a Fourth Attempt to Break 820—Can We Break Through Tonight?

Key Resistance: 820–830

The price has stood above 810 for the fourth time; each time it approaches 820, it falls back by about 2000 points.

Outlook: Overall, still not bearish. Prefer to go long on pullbacks. Around 820, it’s only recommended to try with a small position, and set a stop loss properly!

If tonight holds above 798, the US session could have a chance to push higher, with targets in the 820–830 range.

$BTC #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #日本央行加息至31年高位 #比特币突破8万美元大关 #比特币市值超越特斯拉

The dot plot is landing slightly hawkish, but the risk-market volatility is limited. Everyone is waiting for Mr. Waller’s speech and watching whether it further reinforces expectations of higher interest rates.

The bond market has already priced this in ahead of time. With expectations for further rate hikes rising quickly, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note has moved higher. The market is betting that long-term inflation will be kept in check, and the 30-year Treasury yield has fallen.

After the speech, the 10-year Treasury yield remains firm. Pressure on risk assets is likely to persist. Even hawkish signals like the dot plot cannot pull it lower, so the bond market’s downside risk will be significantly amplified.

If rate hikes are combined with policy adjustments, it still may not be enough to restrain the 10-year Treasury yield. With limited available policy space in the U.S., investors can only hope that developments in the Middle East and a cooling in energy prices help.

As mentioned earlier, the key risk in this 25 bp hike is not the hike itself, but whether Waller hints at a sequence of consecutive hikes:

1. Signals are data-dependent and do not lock in an October hike → the market temporarily dips on the idea of less certainty, then rebounds after the “boots-on-the-ground” landing.

2. Emphasizes inflation risks and preserves room for tightening multiple times afterward → Treasuries and the U.S. dollar strengthen, and BTC drops below 75,000–76,000, then heads for 72,500–71,500, possibly even back into the 6 handle.

In short, this decision is overall bearish for BTC. The focus of the move is not on the rate-hike landing itself, but on Waller—whether this is a single standalone hike or the start of a new tightening cycle.

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元 #比特币下跌4%

Tonight’s key focus isn’t whether to add 25 basis points or not. Instead, there are three things to watch:

First, the dot plot—see whether the Fed has any further plans to raise rates, and how many times.

Second, the part about Powell’s remarks—mainly what he says. In particular, compare what he signals with the content of the blog post released earlier tonight to judge whether the tone is more hawkish or more dovish.

Third, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. It’s already close to 5%. If, after the meeting, yields continue to push higher, pressure will be heavy on the tech and AI sectors. If the yield clearly pulls back, that’s when the Nasdaq will have a chance to rebound.

In simpler terms: whether to add, and by how much, isn’t the main point right now. What matters tonight is whether the rate hike is a one-off adjustment or the beginning of a new round of tightening.

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元 #美国30年期国债收益率升破5.40%

Just two days ago I was telling my friend, “I dreamed about hitting 7.10. Won’t it really reach this level on Thursday?……”

$BTC #美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币跌至7.6万美元

There are two key turning points in front of us now: 80,000 and 830. The big cake wants to move upward out of the range-bound consolidation, and these two levels must be genuinely broken through.

If it’s only a fake breakout, then the market will continue to oscillate in this way, maintaining the status quo.

The opportunity on the left is indeed large and very tempting, but the corresponding risk is also high.

I’m still planning to wait until the market confirms the move before I make a trade.

$BTC #比特币现货ETF净流入1.6亿美元 #比特币守稳77000美元上方 #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元 #美联储加息概率升至89%

The big cake is currently ranging around 768, so keep a close watch on the level at 795.

After it surged to 820, there have been several attempts to break up to 795, but they were all knocked back.

When it can reclaim 795 again, the 80,000 to 82,000 range will once again become the market’s target area.

But if the 760–770 zone can’t be held, then the next level to watch is 705.

Right now, both bullish and bearish arguments have their own logic.

From the current chart, things look relatively weak, but saying the market will keep making new lows is only speculation—until it actually plays out, it doesn’t count.

To turn things around next, the big cake needs to successfully hold above 795, and let the price action speak.

$BTC #比特币四周内第三次单块重组 #美国10年期国债收益率逼近5% #全网爆仓6.74亿美元

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates next Wednesday is already close to 90%—this will be the first rate hike since July 2023.

Here’s where it gets interesting: on the day the CPI data was released, the rate-hike expectations jumped straight from 69% to 87%. That day, BTC—the big one—printed a dramatic “天地针” candlestick, and then the market slowly started drifting downward.

Another key point: most officials inside the Fed believe that this won’t be the only rate hike. The market is currently pricing in at least three more rate-hike moves before June next year.

$BTC #全网爆仓6.74亿美元 #Clarity法案9月15日程序性投票

The market is now giving a nearly 90% chance of a rate hike in September. Goldman Sachs has also directly changed its view: it used to expect to stay put, but now it predicts a 25-basis-point hike.

However, I personally think September may not necessarily see a real rate hike. Rate hikes are like a sword hanging over the market: the threat is strongest before it falls. Once it actually lands, its impact may weaken, and it could also make the market worry about the re-start of the rate-hike cycle. Even Goldman Sachs itself said the reason it is forecasting a hike is that it’s afraid that if the market has fully priced in expectations and there is no hike, the market could see severe volatility.

Let’s see how the BTC has been moving these past two days: the CPI data itself tends to support the case for a hike. But after briefly dropping to 75,900 in an instant, it didn’t keep falling. It ended the week’s slump and repaired back toward around 80,000.

A clear takeaway is that the market has already digested a round of bad news about the rate hike in advance.

So this shows that you can’t judge the market based only on probability numbers—you ultimately need to verify right or wrong through the trading action on the chart.

$BTC #CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息 #比特币CPI后反弹站上79000美元

SNDK touches the final support!
The current pullback has broken through the breakout level and is near diagonal support. Once it breaks down, you can directly look at 1500.
You must close above the trendline to maintain the bullish structure on the daily and weekly charts; if it fails, next week’s market will face pressure.

$SNDK #CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息