话李话外

As of 2025, we have released 5 e-books, including the Crypto series and the Travel series.
Introduction to the Crypto series e-books:
1. (Dalong's Crypto Notes 2025)
This book is an e-book released by “Huali Huwai” on December 31, 2025. The full text is about 360,000 Chinese characters. It mainly records, in chronological order, some of Dalong’s (the founder of Huali Huwai) personal experiences, thoughts, and summaries from the crypto market in 2025.
2. (Blockchain Methodology) 2024
This book is an e-book released by “Huali Huwai” in 2024. The full text is about 623,000 Chinese characters. It is mainly divided into three major categories: investment strategy methodology, self-cultivation for retail investors, and annual narratives and projects. Each category is composed of different subsection articles.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
At the beginning of the month, many people were still confident about the market. But over the past two weeks, many have dubbed this month “Black October.” Indeed, it seems that a lot of major news stories have broken this month, such as:

A serious security vulnerability has emerged in PHP (the PHP2Shell vulnerability), and approximately 22,000 websites across 103 countries are expected to be facing the threat of the worst cyberattack in a decade.
Quantum computing will soon crack cryptography and reduce Bitcoin’s value to zero.
A U.S. nuclear fusion startup called Marathon Fusion announced that it had successfully turned mercury into gold. Unlimited alchemy has really arrived.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
On this day last year (October 6, 2025), Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000. Before we knew it, a year had gone by. Based on that peak, Bitcoin’s price is now 32% lower. A year ago, when Bitcoin was at $126,000, many people were discussing how much further it could rise. Today, a year later, with its price having rebounded to around $85,000, many are discussing whether the bear market is really about to end. Isn’t it interesting to compare these different sentiments?

In the previous article, we mentioned several macro indicators or factors that might affect the market’s short-term outlook ahead, including the NFP, CPI, and the FOMC meeting. From the latest CPI data released on the 12th, the U.S. July CPI year-over-year rose by 3.4% (down from June’s 3.5%). Core CPI rose by 2.5% year-over-year (i.e., after excluding food and energy; also down from the previous value of 2.6%). Both figures were in line with market expectations. Although the released data has continued to give the Federal Reserve more time, it has also made the outlook for the upcoming market moves difficult to predict and full of uncertainties. In the short term, the market is likely to continue with range-bound fluctuations—that is, at this stage, there are still no macro conditions that directly support a clear reversal.

In the previous article (Aug 4), we mentioned that MicroStrategy (Strategy) continues to sell Bitcoin, and the Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) also continues to sell Bitcoin. So some friends commented and complained, saying that MicroStrategy bought Bitcoin for $75,000 and is now cutting its losses to sell at $63,000—looks like institutions are scalpers too, for sure.

Regarding this kind of rhetoric that targets institutions as “scalpers,” I have a slightly different view. If we look purely at the outcome, selling at a loss really does resemble the kind of behavior associated with scalpers. However, the main characteristic of most scalpers is that they often make buys (chasing the price) without any plan or discipline, and sell (cut their losses) without any discipline either.

In the previous article (July 8), we mentioned some of the US stock-related lists we’re currently watching, including CRCL, MSTR, HOOD, and more. Today, let’s continue discussing HOOD (Robinhood). Specifically, on last week (July 2), Robinhood officially launched its Arbitrum-based L2 network, Robinhood Chain, as shown in the figure below.


There are two main points about Robinhood Chain. First, one of its marketing highlights claims it is an AI-native chain (meaning it supports AI agents carrying out transactions directly on-chain). Second, it is built specifically for tokenized stocks (and users can deposit tokenized stocks into a lending pool and use them as DeFi collateral).

Source: talk from within and beyond
A few days ago, a friend asked me whether I participated in new stock offerings (IPO) in Hong Kong stocks. I felt that the returns over the past half year have been pretty good. Also, recently there has been quite a high frequency of discussions about Hong Kong stock IPOs. I’ve seen people share chat records in groups: someone invested 10,000 in a single Hong Kong stock account over the past half year, and the profit could reach 15,000. If we look purely from the perspective of return rate, it’s indeed quite impressive.

Someone even did a calculation: in the first half of this year, there were 85 new stocks listed in Hong Kong, and in June alone there were 24. Suppose in the first half of the year, an application was submitted for every new stock, each stock is allotted one lot only, and everything is sold at the closing price on the first day. Then the total profit would be around HK$290,000.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
The other day, I watched a movie with my child (The Sheep Detectives). Although it’s a family-friendly comedy, within it there’s a little story that also hides an unwritten rule: almost all lambs are born in spring. Occasionally, there are lambs born in winter, and winter-born lambs are often rejected by the flock.

However, the line from the protagonist, George—“You’re okay”—gave that winter-born lamb the warmest affirmation.


Actually, for a lamb born in winter, it hasn’t done anything wrong. It’s just that, because it was born at a time different from most lambs, it was rejected. It’s like in real life too: what most people agree on isn’t necessarily correct, but as long as the majority accept and believe it, it’s often regarded as the truth. Even if a minority’s viewpoint is truly the correct answer, it can only end up being questioned.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
Today’s article covers two topics. We’ll first briefly discuss Strategy (MicroStrategy):

Recently, I’ve noticed that many people have been discussing Strategy. Some seem to be even hoping that this institution—holding 840,000 bitcoins—will blow up, and some are already waiting for Bitcoin below $30,000.

If we look at the price trends of Strategy’s common stock (MSTR) and preferred stock (STRC), the current drawdown has indeed put significant pressure on Michael Saylor (the founder of MicroStrategy). As of the time of writing, MSTR is trading at $85, which is down 81% from its peak of $457 in July of last year. Meanwhile, STRC has fallen to a new low of $75, clearly deviating from its $100 par value.

Source: Talking Li Outside the Box
Remember we shared an interesting website before that tracks every declaration of Bitcoin's death (or going to zero) by mainstream media, celebrities, and economists since 2010. As of April 2026, Bitcoin has been declared dead 472 times, as illustrated in the chart below.


The latest media outlet to declare Bitcoin dead is The Economic Times, and this time the declaration comes from renowned economist Steve Keen, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis. He recently warned that Bitcoin might eventually go to zero, citing excessive energy consumption as his reasoning. See the chart below.

Source: Talking about Li, talking about the outside
In the previous article (June 18), we mainly discussed the Fed's policies and interest rates, and we also touched on the US-Iran conflict. I thought the formal talks in Switzerland on the 19th would go off without a hitch, but due to some new squabbles, it got indefinitely postponed.

As a 'straight-up' trader, sometimes I just can't wrap my head around 'politics', so let's not dive into that topic today. Regardless of who wins or loses in a war, it's always the regular folks who get the short end of the stick, and the ones who are most rattled and sensitive are the financial markets.

Source: Talk about Li, talk outside
In the last article (June 16), we talked about 4 factors influencing the current short-term market trends. When discussing the Fed's policy expectations, we mentioned that if the newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can provide a more dovish sentiment on June 17 (Eastern Time), then with a potential pullback of the DXY, the market might continue to react accordingly.

So, what impact did the FOMC meeting that ended early this morning (June 18, corresponding to Beijing time) have on the market?

Source: Talking about the market
From a sentiment and liquidity perspective, the current short-term market trends are mainly influenced by several factors, including the US-Iran conflict, SpaceX's IPO, ETF fund flows, and expectations around the Fed's policies.

First up, the US-Iran conflict. Yesterday (June 15), there were reports that both sides have signed a memorandum of understanding online (the formal signing is set for June 19). This is definitely bullish for the market, as risk appetite has quickly rebounded, leading to a noticeable uptrend over the past couple of days.

Source: Talking about Li
Since 2024, I've been all about making cuts for myself. For instance, I've gradually stopped updating some of my social media accounts, and my content output has shifted from daily to weekly. Even in the crucial trading aspect, my trading frequency has been on the down low; most of the year is spent waiting, and I don’t engage in too many trades.

I took a quick look back at my historical notes in Notion, and throughout 2025, I've basically been executing sell orders as per my plan. I sold Bitcoin twice, and I cleared out all my altcoin positions in batches before Q3. Of course, the sell operations in 2025 mainly target the positions I bought during 2022-2023. For those interested, you can check out my eBook (Big Dragon's Crypto Notes 2025) for a recap and search; I won't go into detail here.

Source: Talking about Li
In the last article (June 6), we mainly talked about indicators, including macro indicators like DXY (Dollar Index) and US Treasury yields. However, due to space constraints, we didn't delve deeper. Some traders asked: Can we analyze the market trends with these macro indicators?

In our previous article, we discussed the specific applications of those macro indicators. We've shared this in previous posts multiple times, but data is always refreshing when you revisit it. So today, let's dive back into macro indicators.

Source: Talking About It
A couple of days ago, a buddy hit me up in the DMs with an interesting question: why do you prefer dollar-cost averaging when the market drops instead of just going short?

That's a solid question. I actually touched on this topic in my last piece (the Notion article from June 4th). It really comes down to personal risk tolerance. I like to think of time as my ally, not my enemy. Shorting is like playing with fire in a high-stakes game, and that's not my style. I remember economist Keynes once said something that sums it up nicely: 'The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.'