Learn2trades

📉 4H TIME FRAME — Main Bearish Scenario
This is currently the main bearish scenario.
🌊 Elliott Wave Structure:
🔹 Finished ABC Up from the July bottom
🔹 Wave 1 / A: Expanding Diagonal down
🔹 Wave 2 / B: Corrective upward movement
🔹 Currently: we are working on Wave 3 / C down
🚩 The main issue with this scenario:
The Leading Expanding Diagonal in Wave 1/A is extremely rare, which reduces the likelihood of this count.
But we don’t rule it out—we just keep in mind that this is the biggest factor weakening the scenario.
🧠 Therefore, we monitor Price Action + Wave Structure to confirm that Wave 3/C has actually started, rather than relying on the count alone.
The bearish scenario remains valid, but with lower probability because of the rare expanding diagonal. 📉🌊

📊 4H TIME FRAME — Cheeky Alternative Scenario
Here we have an interesting alternative scenario with the Expanding Diagonal, and in this scenario we still consider that we are working on Wave 2 / B.
🎯 Main idea:
The price may first take liquidity from most of the Lower Highs that formed since 66.8K, and then afterward it starts to reverse and fall. 📉
🔑 The key in the coming days is to detect a 5-wave upward move to confirm the start of Wave C.
Currently, I believe we are still inside Wave 1 of Wave C.
⚠️ IMPORTANT — B Wave
The B Wave reached about 0.9 Fibonacci, which makes a Flat formation plausible.
But in this case:
🔸 The B Wave must exceed the High of the A Wave at 65.4K for us to consider the Flat complete.
❌ It cannot be considered a Running Flat unless it takes the B High above the A.

📈 4H TIME FRAME — Alternative Bullish Scenario
We have another interesting scenario that could develop to target 67K+ 🚀
🌊 Elliott Wave Structure
🔹 W: An upward ZigZag in July
🔹 X: Triangle
  ↳ We are currently working on Wave D, and we still need Wave E
🔹 Y: An upward ZigZag during August / September
🎯 What we need to activate this scenario:
First, we need to see a corrective move down for Wave E.
If we can identify this correction over the coming days, we could get a very strong Swing Long opportunity. 📈
🔥 Potential entry methods
We have more than one way to approach the trade:
1️⃣ Aggressive: Enter from the expected support area of Wave E.
2️⃣ Safer: Wait for a Trendline Breakout + Confirmation after Wave E completes.
3️⃣ Wait for a 5-wave impulse up from the Wave E area as additional evidence that the upward move is starting.
🛑 Clear Invalidation:
$62,550
If this level is broken, this scenario becomes invalid.
🎯 The big idea:
Wave E down → Swing Long → Wave Y higher → 67K+
Keep an eye on this scenario, because it could give us one of the cleanest Swing opportunities if the structure completes as we expect. 🧠📊

📊 4H TIME FRAME — The scenario is still in place
The scenario is still relevant: we expect a bearish move in the short term, followed by a bullish scenario targeting and reaching 67K. 📉➡️📈
🌊 Elliott Wave Structure
🔹 W: Upside ZigZag in July
🔹 X: WXY Double ZigZag
  ↳ We are currently working on Wave B from Y
🔹 Y: Upside ZigZag during August / September
🎯 Swing Long area of interest:
61K area
If the price reaches the 61K area, we will monitor the structure and confirmations there and update you regarding the Long opportunity.
🧠 Core idea:
Short-term bearish → Swing long around 61K → bullish move toward 67K.
The scenario is there, but we are waiting for the price to reach the zone and give us confirmation. 📊🎯

🧩 Potential Larger WXY
There is a possibility that we may be dealing with a larger WXY.
🔹 Wave X may form as a Triangle
🔹 After it completes and the Triangle breaks upward, Wave Y may begin moving upward.
👀 This scenario is still a possibility and needs confirmation from the structure and the upcoming movement before relying on it.
We are watching for the Triangle break to confirm the start of Wave Y. 📊🎯

🧩 This scenario is still on the table.
And honestly, I personally want to see the price drop even more 📉🔥
Because reaching those levels could give us a very strong and special Long.
👀 We keep the scenario open and wait for the price to reach the important levels before making a decision.
Sometimes the best trade is the one we patiently wait for. 🎯

🔴 Resistance zones on the upper side
We have several Order Blocks at the top that can act as important resistance areas. 📊
👀 These are the zones we will watch when the price reaches them, especially if rejection appears or momentum weakens.
🎯 Order Blocks = potential resistance zones, not confirmation by themselves.
We wait for the price to react from them before making any decision. 🧩

📊 ETH/BTC — Update
Ethereum is still outperforming Bitcoin in terms of performance.
👀 However, after this outperformance, we may soon see a correction in the form of a B-wave pullback, before the next move becomes clear.
⚠️ Therefore, we are watching the ETH/BTC reaction over the coming period, especially if Ethereum’s relative momentum starts to weaken.
🎯 So far, the outperformance is still in place, but the possibility of a near-term correction should remain in mind.

📊 ADA — Analysis Update
Cardano ADA continues developing the expected recovery wave 4 within the larger bearish structure.
🟢 Although the current rebound may extend to higher levels, there is still no confirmation that the larger correction has ended.
🟢 Main scenario:
The preferred count still indicates the possibility of Wave 4 continuing toward the resistance zone:
🎯 $0.23 – $0.52
If we see a price rejection from this zone or a downward move forming 5 waves, it will strengthen the likelihood that the bearish Wave 5 is still coming.
⚠️ Alternative scenario:
If the price manages to record a bullish 5-wave impulsive move and stay above $0.52, this would lead to a clear improvement in the bullish scenario and increase the probability of a larger recovery.
🎯 The first target in this case would be toward the November 2024 high near:
$1.30
📌 Most important resistance levels:
🔹 $0.23
🔹 $0.314
🔹 $0.40
🔹 $0.52
🧩 Summary:
ADA is still in the Wave 4 Recovery phase, while the larger structure remains bearish and a new bottom via Wave 5 is preferred.
However, if a strong impulsive breakout appears above $0.52$, we will need to reassess the count and the entire scenario.
👀 We’re monitoring the structure and letting the price confirm the correct scenario.

📊 ATOM Update — Based on Mustafa’s request 🔥
Among the currencies that caught my attention, ATOM’s chart is currently quite interesting.
On the hourly timeframe (1H), we are currently watching two main possibilities:
🟡 The first scenario:
We are working on forming a corrective ABC structure, or we may be at the beginning of forming a new impulse (impulsive wave).
The key support zone we are watching:
🟢 1.332 - 1.297
This area is important for the possibility of completing the fourth wave (Wave 4) in yellow.
🔵 The blue scenario:
If we get a deeper correction, we may see a retest of the following areas:
📍 1.260 - 1.240
These are important zones where we are watching for the price reaction.
📌 Summary:
It’s likely that we are still seeing a final upward push before the formation of the local top, and there is no confirmation that the top has been placed yet.
🎯 Plan:
⏳ Patience is required right now.
We have two options:
1️⃣ The first scenario:
Wait for the structure to complete, and if price completes a bigger downward wave 1 or wave A, we can look for Short opportunities after getting confirmations.
2️⃣ The second scenario:
Wait for the correction and reach the important areas, then look for Long opportunities from the attractive zones as shown in the chart:
🟢 Green = buy interest zones
🔴 Red = sell interest zones
👀 First, we monitor the structure, and we shouldn’t rush to enter before the scenario is completed.$ATOM

📊 CRCL – Analysis Update
We continue to follow the bullish scenario shown in gray.
After the completion of the ABC model in orange, we saw an impulse wave consisting of 5 waves; currently, we are working on the fifth wave of wave C (in yellow) within wave 2.
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
Breaking the $72.75 level will give us the first signal regarding the likelihood of the start of wave 3 (Wave 3), which may target the green zone between:
🎯 $158.46 – $297.00
🔴 Alternative Scenario (Invalidation):
A break below the $49.80 level will invalidate the current structure; then we will start looking for an alternative wave scenario.
📌 Summary:
✅ Holding and breaking $72.75 supports the start of a strong upward wave.
❌ Breaking $49.80 invalidates the current scenario and forces us to reevaluate the wave count.
👀 We will keep monitoring price action and waiting for confirmation before finally favoring any scenario.

📊 Important note about Bitcoin (BTC)
The last time a positive deviation (Bullish RSI Divergence) appeared on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin needed about 6–7 weeks before resuming its upward move.
⏳ This time, it has been 5 weeks since the positive divergence appeared on the weekly timeframe, which means we are approaching the same time window in which the previous upward move began.
📈 In addition, the Copper/Gold Ratio shows signs of a bullish cross, but this cross will only be confirmed at the end of August on the two-month monthly timeframe (2M Time Frame).
🚀 Historically, this cross has preceded very strong bullish moves for Bitcoin, and this event hasn’t occurred in 6 years, making it a development worth closely monitoring.
👀 The end of August will be a very important period, and we will watch to see whether these historical signals repeat again.

📊 DOT – Analysis Update
Polkadot (DOT) is trying to register a short-term recovery from its most recent low, but the current upward move is still not sufficient to confirm the start of a larger rebound.
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Leading Scenario):
As long as the support zone between $0.76–$0.79 holds, there is still a chance to see another upward push.
📈 The first local resistance area is at:
$0.83
🔴 Alternative Scenario (Risk Scenario):
A break below the $0.76 level will weaken the current recovery attempt and refocus attention on retesting the most recent low.
📌 Support Zones:
$0.76–$0.79
$0.75
📌 Resistance Zones:
$0.83
📍 Summary:
The technical structure has improved slightly in the short term, but the market still needs additional confirmations before considering that a bigger recovery has started.

📊 LINK – Update Analysis
🟢 Main Scenario (Leading Scenario):
As long as the current decline remains corrective and the support zone at $7.35 – $7.89 holds, the possibility of seeing another rebound toward resistance areas remains on the table.
📈 The first short-term resistance zone lies between:
$8.27 – $8.70
While the main resistance zone extends between:
$8.75 – $9.90
🔴 Alternative Scenario (Risk Scenario):
If the price breaks below the $7.35 level, the probability of a drop toward $5.95 increases, and possibly to even lower levels.
So far, the upward movement since the June low is still a 3-wave corrective structure, and we have not yet received a 5-wave impulsive wave that confirms the start of a new bullish trend.
📌 Support Zones:
$7.35 – $7.89
$5.95
📌 Resistance Zones:
$8.27 – $8.70
$8.75 – $9.90
📍 Summary:
The current pullback still appears corrective, which keeps the chance of retesting resistance areas active. However, the technical structure still lacks the necessary confirmation to start a larger recovery or a sustainable bullish reversal.

BCH:
The price is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level. The possibility of a bounce within Wave C or Wave 3 remains from this area, but we need to see an upside movement composed of 5 waves to confirm the completion of Wave (B) or Wave 2.
📌 Local Support Zone (Micro Support):
$195.3 – $215.7
🎯 Until we get clear confirmation, this scenario remains under observation, awaiting the required bullish structure to appear before leaning toward the start of the next wave.