蜡币小鑫
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蜡币小鑫
Square Verified+币圈资深老韭菜，涉及币圈多个领域，长期持有 #BTC#ETH#BNB 推特博主：https://twitter.com/zhuanfgghjnb
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If I had received 150,000 of $BNB in the 2017 ICO and never sold them... how much would they be worth today?
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U.S. Military Attacks Iran’s Southern Islands; Iran Vows Retaliation
Iranian Media Say Iran Fired Missiles at a U.S. Warship
According to Iranian media: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that in response to the U.S. attack on the Larak Island, it launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases located in Jordan.
Iranian Media Say Iran Fired Missiles at a U.S. Warship
According to Iranian media: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that in response to the U.S. attack on the Larak Island, it launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases located in Jordan.
Which circle do you belong to?
Kalshi lost a very critical lawsuit.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals was very direct: obtaining a CFTC license does not mean you have a pass that lets you bypass B/C regulations in every state across the United States.
Kalshi argued that it is not a traditional B/C company, but a contract trading platform regulated by the CFTC. What users trade is not “wagers,” but “sports event contracts.”
The court concluded that if a product trades outcomes like game results, point spreads, totals, player statistics, or even parlays, whether it is called an “event contract” or a “prediction market,” it is fundamentally very similar to sports B/C.
You can’t change “betting” into buying Yes and buying No, and then suddenly claim it is a financial derivative.
Therefore, the court held that Kalshi’s sports contracts do not qualify as “swap agreements” that would trigger the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, and Nevada can still regulate them under its local B/C laws. The court also noted that the CFTC’s existing rules themselves also prohibit designated contract markets from listing contracts related to “B/C.”
Previously, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals had sided with Kalshi in a New Jersey case, ruling that sports event contracts could be considered “swaps” under the definition in the Commodity Exchange Act, to be uniformly regulated by the CFTC, and that state governments could no longer interfere using B/C regulations.
Now there is an apparent split between different U.S. circuit courts.
Legally, sports predictions and political or election predictions may not necessarily belong in the same category.
Predict also serves as a strong warning signal.
Sports and games are indeed among the most promising high-frequency use cases for prediction markets, but they are also the area with the highest regulatory risk.
If Predict plans to focus on developing sports markets in the future, beyond liquidity, gameplay, and settlement efficiency, it also needs to consider licensing, KYC, geographic restrictions, and compliance boundaries in advance.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals was very direct: obtaining a CFTC license does not mean you have a pass that lets you bypass B/C regulations in every state across the United States.
Kalshi argued that it is not a traditional B/C company, but a contract trading platform regulated by the CFTC. What users trade is not “wagers,” but “sports event contracts.”
The court concluded that if a product trades outcomes like game results, point spreads, totals, player statistics, or even parlays, whether it is called an “event contract” or a “prediction market,” it is fundamentally very similar to sports B/C.
You can’t change “betting” into buying Yes and buying No, and then suddenly claim it is a financial derivative.
Therefore, the court held that Kalshi’s sports contracts do not qualify as “swap agreements” that would trigger the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, and Nevada can still regulate them under its local B/C laws. The court also noted that the CFTC’s existing rules themselves also prohibit designated contract markets from listing contracts related to “B/C.”
Previously, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals had sided with Kalshi in a New Jersey case, ruling that sports event contracts could be considered “swaps” under the definition in the Commodity Exchange Act, to be uniformly regulated by the CFTC, and that state governments could no longer interfere using B/C regulations.
Now there is an apparent split between different U.S. circuit courts.
Legally, sports predictions and political or election predictions may not necessarily belong in the same category.
Predict also serves as a strong warning signal.
Sports and games are indeed among the most promising high-frequency use cases for prediction markets, but they are also the area with the highest regulatory risk.
If Predict plans to focus on developing sports markets in the future, beyond liquidity, gameplay, and settlement efficiency, it also needs to consider licensing, KYC, geographic restrictions, and compliance boundaries in advance.
Liangxi is Sun Ge’s disciple; he won’t repay the money he owes Qianmeng Xiaoqi, and he even ate a 190-yuan KFC meal meant for someone else’s little girl.
Sun Ge only started a “refund-only” campaign.
#孙宇晨
Sun Ge only started a “refund-only” campaign.
#孙宇晨
Today, when looking at Predict’s esports section, the one I personally play the most is League of Legends.
From a betting perspective, here’s how to filter
1. Prioritize: LCK
2. Secondary: LEC, LCP, LCS
3. Proceed with caution: CBLOL, LCK Challengers League
4. Try to avoid as much as possible: Circuito Desafiante, EBL, the Arab League, Hitpoint Masters
In the next few events, lineup changes are more likely, young players’ form can fluctuate, and betting market liquidity may be insufficient.
🎮 Two LCK qualifying matches to choose from
Both matches are BO5 (best of five, first to three wins).
1️⃣ KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION
📊 Outcome: KT win
🧭 Handicap: BRO (+2.5) ⭐
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games / Under 4.5 games
✅ First choice: BRO (+2.5) 71¢
2️⃣ Nongshim RedForce vs BNK FEARX
📊 Outcome: Nongshim RedForce win ⭐
🧭 Handicap: For now, don’t chase NS (-1.5)
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games
✅ First choice: Nongshim 58¢
Come try your hand at the esports section recently.
From a betting perspective, here’s how to filter
1. Prioritize: LCK
2. Secondary: LEC, LCP, LCS
3. Proceed with caution: CBLOL, LCK Challengers League
4. Try to avoid as much as possible: Circuito Desafiante, EBL, the Arab League, Hitpoint Masters
In the next few events, lineup changes are more likely, young players’ form can fluctuate, and betting market liquidity may be insufficient.
🎮 Two LCK qualifying matches to choose from
Both matches are BO5 (best of five, first to three wins).
1️⃣ KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION
📊 Outcome: KT win
🧭 Handicap: BRO (+2.5) ⭐
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games / Under 4.5 games
✅ First choice: BRO (+2.5) 71¢
2️⃣ Nongshim RedForce vs BNK FEARX
📊 Outcome: Nongshim RedForce win ⭐
🧭 Handicap: For now, don’t chase NS (-1.5)
🎯 Score: 3:1 | 3:2 | 2:3
📈 Total games: Over 3.5 games
✅ First choice: Nongshim 58¢
Come try your hand at the esports section recently.
Genius trader, Leng Xi’s ex-girlfriend, Meng Xiao Xi.
A woman who truly crawled out of the pile of the dead from the crypto world.
One of the few top creators on Douyin who dares to publicly promote OKX and Binance—and still hasn’t been shut down.
When others get liquidated, it’s the account that bleeds.
When she gets liquidated, it’s—she literally gets liquidated to the point of a nosebleed.
A woman who truly crawled out of the pile of the dead from the crypto world.
One of the few top creators on Douyin who dares to publicly promote OKX and Binance—and still hasn’t been shut down.
When others get liquidated, it’s the account that bleeds.
When she gets liquidated, it’s—she literally gets liquidated to the point of a nosebleed.
Genius trader, Liangxi's ex-girlfriend Mengxiaoxi
Another identity: a major customer of OKX. I figured it out—at the very least, I've been liquidated for over 10 million.
Another identity: a major customer of OKX. I figured it out—at the very least, I've been liquidated for over 10 million.
Why run here and there—Predict has it all.
After the Predict prediction event for DOTA 2 went live, the 王者荣耀 (Honor of Kings) KPL has also launched in sync.
Now, Predict has basically shoved everything into one prediction market: games, politics, crypto, the secondary market, sports events… all of it.
Bullish. At first, everyone just thought it was a movie.
Now Btc is at 69,000. From “bullish” to “the bull really has arrived”—the “Bullish” I bought earlier: YES for $75 million, has already been secured.
There are still 100M and 150M YES remaining.
KPL for Honor of Kings is the highest-level league in China. The regular season is basically BO5—best of five, first to three.
Chengdu AG Super Play vs Guangzhou TTG—I chose TTG to win.
📍
Venue: Chengdu
Match result: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 1: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 2: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Score: 1:3 / 0:3, for 2:3 prevention
After the Predict prediction event for DOTA 2 went live, the 王者荣耀 (Honor of Kings) KPL has also launched in sync.
Now, Predict has basically shoved everything into one prediction market: games, politics, crypto, the secondary market, sports events… all of it.
Bullish. At first, everyone just thought it was a movie.
Now Btc is at 69,000. From “bullish” to “the bull really has arrived”—the “Bullish” I bought earlier: YES for $75 million, has already been secured.
There are still 100M and 150M YES remaining.
KPL for Honor of Kings is the highest-level league in China. The regular season is basically BO5—best of five, first to three.
Chengdu AG Super Play vs Guangzhou TTG—I chose TTG to win.
📍
Venue: Chengdu
Match result: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 1: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Game 2: TTG wins ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Score: 1:3 / 0:3, for 2:3 prevention
Life imprisonment, Xu Jiayin was sentenced!
On the morning of August 20, 2026, the Intermediate People's Court of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province announced in a public trial the first-instance verdict against the defendant entity Evergrande Group and the defendant entity Evergrande Properties.
For the case of Xu Jiayin, life imprisonment was handed down, along with a fine of 8.82 billion yuan.
He has to be as powerful as Wang Jianlin.
On the morning of August 20, 2026, the Intermediate People's Court of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province announced in a public trial the first-instance verdict against the defendant entity Evergrande Group and the defendant entity Evergrande Properties.
For the case of Xu Jiayin, life imprisonment was handed down, along with a fine of 8.82 billion yuan.
He has to be as powerful as Wang Jianlin.
Seems like the circuit breaker has tripped again
Stop after earning 30 million, I’ve already made 30 million 🤑
《Niu Lai》I thought it was taken down. Then today I checked—
Predict has put《Niu Lai》back on its box-office prediction market: by September, how much will《Niu Lai》make?
The current odds roughly are:
▪️> 15 million: 100%
▪️> 20 million: 90%
▪️> 30 million: 70%
▪️> 40 million: 70%
▪️> 50 million: 50%
I’d even been thinking: “It’s about to get taken down—what’s there to play with in this bet?”
But today I see that’s not the case. On August 17, theaters are still temporarily adding screenings. As of the morning, the cumulative box office has already surpassed 10 million yuan, with cumulative attendance of about 363,000.
Maoyan at one point directly raised its final box-office prediction to: 89 million yuan—a typical “curiosity-bait” traffic play.
Can《Niu Lai》really rely on one round of nationwide “everyone’s watching” attention to push itself from a few tens of millions to 50 million, and even challenge Maoyan’s 89 million prediction?
Sometimes the best part of prediction markets is right here:
How far can human nature, traffic, and attention ultimately get out of control.#牛来
Predict has put《Niu Lai》back on its box-office prediction market: by September, how much will《Niu Lai》make?
The current odds roughly are:
▪️> 15 million: 100%
▪️> 20 million: 90%
▪️> 30 million: 70%
▪️> 40 million: 70%
▪️> 50 million: 50%
I’d even been thinking: “It’s about to get taken down—what’s there to play with in this bet?”
But today I see that’s not the case. On August 17, theaters are still temporarily adding screenings. As of the morning, the cumulative box office has already surpassed 10 million yuan, with cumulative attendance of about 363,000.
Maoyan at one point directly raised its final box-office prediction to: 89 million yuan—a typical “curiosity-bait” traffic play.
Can《Niu Lai》really rely on one round of nationwide “everyone’s watching” attention to push itself from a few tens of millions to 50 million, and even challenge Maoyan’s 89 million prediction?
Sometimes the best part of prediction markets is right here:
How far can human nature, traffic, and attention ultimately get out of control.#牛来
Flexible competition, flexible circulation, hear the peak and lose courage.
GPT's strictest father.
GPT's strictest father.
I just love collecting gold items.
I booked two 30-gram gold coin denominations—I hope I get selected!
I booked two 30-gram gold coin denominations—I hope I get selected!
Why is everyone posting #牛来 today?
I checked the overall market—no bull has come yet!
I’m still behind. Turns out it’s your bulls that arrived—I still haven’t seen mine!
I checked the overall market—no bull has come yet!
I’m still behind. Turns out it’s your bulls that arrived—I still haven’t seen mine!
People really need a victory in a worldly sense
A Peng spreads wings on a single day, riding the wind—yet a young person's drive can never be obtained again. We must achieve success with worldly meaning before we turn 30
I just love this scene of Dapeng accepting an award, full of spirit and energy
A Peng spreads wings on a single day, riding the wind—yet a young person's drive can never be obtained again. We must achieve success with worldly meaning before we turn 30
I just love this scene of Dapeng accepting an award, full of spirit and energy
How much is Wang Sicong’s “million-dollar computer” from back then worth today?
Many people think electronic products only depreciate after being bought. Let me calculate the current market price of Wang Sicong’s “million-dollar computer” from back then.
▪️ Dell R7525 server
Back then: 28,000 RMB | Now: 27,000 RMB | Drop: 3.57%
▪️ AMD EPYC 7763 processors ×2
Back then: 130,000 RMB | Now: 26,000 RMB | Drop: 80.00%
▪️ 64GB 3200 memory ×32
Back then: 73,600 RMB | Now: 249,600 RMB | Increase: 239.13%
▪️ Samsung 30TB hard drives ×16
Back then: 544,000 RMB | Now: 752,000 RMB | Increase: 38.24%
▪️ 15TB hard drives ×4
Back then: 92,000 RMB | Now: 88,000 RMB | Drop: 4.35%
▪️ Intel Optane system drives ×4
Back then: 140,000 RMB | Now: 120,000 RMB | Drop: 14.29%
▪️ RTX 3090 24GB graphics cards ×3
Back then: 48,000 RMB | Now: 27,000 RMB | Drop: 43.75%
Total hardware cost for the whole build back then: about 1,055,600 RMB; now: 1,289,600 RMB
Overall increase: 22.17%
The most outrageous part isn’t the graphics card or the CPU—it’s the memory and large-capacity hard drives.
I can only say this: Storage is king, CWW.
Many people think electronic products only depreciate after being bought. Let me calculate the current market price of Wang Sicong’s “million-dollar computer” from back then.
▪️ Dell R7525 server
Back then: 28,000 RMB | Now: 27,000 RMB | Drop: 3.57%
▪️ AMD EPYC 7763 processors ×2
Back then: 130,000 RMB | Now: 26,000 RMB | Drop: 80.00%
▪️ 64GB 3200 memory ×32
Back then: 73,600 RMB | Now: 249,600 RMB | Increase: 239.13%
▪️ Samsung 30TB hard drives ×16
Back then: 544,000 RMB | Now: 752,000 RMB | Increase: 38.24%
▪️ 15TB hard drives ×4
Back then: 92,000 RMB | Now: 88,000 RMB | Drop: 4.35%
▪️ Intel Optane system drives ×4
Back then: 140,000 RMB | Now: 120,000 RMB | Drop: 14.29%
▪️ RTX 3090 24GB graphics cards ×3
Back then: 48,000 RMB | Now: 27,000 RMB | Drop: 43.75%
Total hardware cost for the whole build back then: about 1,055,600 RMB; now: 1,289,600 RMB
Overall increase: 22.17%
The most outrageous part isn’t the graphics card or the CPU—it’s the memory and large-capacity hard drives.
I can only say this: Storage is king, CWW.
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