蜡币小鑫

A weakening nonfarm is not simply a good thing for rate cuts; what the market is truly trading is the tug-of-war between economic slowdown and sticky inflation.

I’m more focused on which—weak employment or inflation persistence—can better keep rate expectations in check. Macroeconomic data by itself isn’t a trading signal; it’s the price reaction that matters.

US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below the market expectation of about 80,000; the May and June employment data were also revised down by a total of 103,000, showing that the cooling in the labor market is more severe than what the market had priced in.

BTC -0.32% latest 65009.9; $ETH -0.49% latest 1919.6; $XAUT
+0.09% latest 4328.3.

Market focus:

BTC: Look for support around 61,100; 57,200 is the defense level. 68,950 is short-term resistance—once it holds above, then look for 72,850.

ETH: Look for support around 1,800; 1,650 is the defense level. 2,050 is short-term resistance—once it holds above, then look for 2,150.

Trading bias: First observe, then wait for price confirmation. The narrative is there, but the underlying assets haven’t caught up yet.

Don’t look at only one data point for the macro theme. Weak employment can curb rate expectations and risk assets will breathe easier; but if CPI keeps sticking, the market will quickly trade the rate pressure back in.

Non-farm payrolls surprise to the downside, but don't rush to call it good news

New jobs: down 23,000; for the first two months, another 103,000 were cut; the unemployment rate fell, mainly because more people exited the labor force

The market has pushed the probability of a September rate hike down to 44%

This isn't “good news” = indiscriminate buying/pump-up. It’s that rate-hike pressure is easing while growth risks are rising: next, watch U.S. Treasury yields, and whether the Nasdaq and BTC can truly hold and absorb the move

If rates fall but risk assets don't rise, the trade isn't about easing—it’s about a recession

The most delicate aspect of US employment has arrived: companies don’t lay people off, but they’re also not in a hurry to hire.

In the short term, there’s no support for the Fed quickly turning dovish—the Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow night will be the real pricing point for US Treasuries, tech stocks, and BTC

The market is putting real money behind the bet that the United States and Iran can reach a deal, but I only look at one indicator: whether oil tankers have truly returned to normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Statements can change sentiment, but only actual navigation can change supply.

If a deal is finalized, oil prices, inflation, and U.S. Treasury yields could all fall at the same time—creating a tailwind for tech stocks and BTC; if talks collapse, the recent gains in risk assets could quickly be unwound.

Do you think this time is a real turning point, or just another case of “pump it up first, then crash”?

Yushu Technology’s IPO is entering the countdown.

The issuance schedule currently disclosed is: price inquiry on August 5 and online subscription on August 10; the official listing date has not been announced yet. The final issue price has also not been determined. The figure of about RMB 104 circulating in the market is a theoretical value derived by dividing the proposed fundraising amount of RMB 4.202 billion by the minimum number of shares to be issued (40.4464 million shares). This corresponds to an estimated valuation of about RMB 420 billion, and it is not an official pricing.

Based on a valuation of RMB 420 billion:
For 2025, revenue is about RMB 1.7 billion, corresponding to ~25x PS;
Parent-attributable net profit is RMB 278 million, corresponding to ~151x PE;
Net profit after deducting non-recurring items is RMB 591 million, corresponding to ~71x PE.

The valuation is not low, but Yushu is not relying on hype alone: In 2025, sales of humanoid robots were 5,215 units, generating revenue of RMB 868 million, with gross margin from main business reaching 60.13%. The real risk is that in Q1 2026, revenue growth of 68% is expected, while profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to fall by more than 52%. R&D and marketing investments are visibly eroding near-term profits.

A few days ago it was still “the stock must fall no matter whether the earnings are good or bad.” Now, the market suddenly starts rewarding good performance again.

Last night on Wall Street:
🔥 S&P 500 rose 1.8%, hitting a new all-time high
🔥 Nasdaq gained 2.6%
🔥 Dow surged by 907 points
🔥 Palantir jumped 29.5%
🔥 Micron rose 7.6%, and Broadcom climbed 6.6%

Why did good earnings surge this time?

Because the companies’ fundamentals were solid. At the same time, the oil price dropped 5.3% and U.S. Treasury yields fell back—two heavy stones weighing on tech stocks finally loosened.

The market isn’t blindly buying AI again; it’s selecting the companies that can truly turn AI into revenue, profits, and orders.

Next, the most important thing isn’t who shouts the loudest, but who can continue to raise guidance. Who do you think will be the next AI company to be repriced by funds?

#纳指 #AI股票 #美股

Elon Musk’s net worth shrank by $36.3 billion in July.

What does that mean?

The wealth he lost in a single month is more than the entire net worth of any one person among ranks 2 through 10 on the global rich list.

But the most painful part isn’t that he lost so much—it’s that after losing it all, he will most likely still be the world’s richest person.

Ordinary people: This month their account is down 10% and they can’t sleep.

Musk: Lost a world-class billionaire in one month and keeps going to work.

This is the “drawdown” of a top billionaire. 😂

The market was terrified to death yesterday, and today it’s back to accumulating positions. Why?

It’s not because the economy suddenly got better—it’s because oil prices fell.

Brent crude dropped 4.7% in a single day, and US stocks immediately surged:

🔥 Nasdaq up 2.1%
🔥 S&P 500 up 1.5%, just about 0.1% away from its all-time high
🔥 Dow up nearly 700 points, setting a record close

Now the market switch is very clear:
Oil prices rise = worries about inflation, worries about rate hikes, tech stocks get punished;
Oil prices fall = easing inflation pressure, and capital comes back to buy growth stocks.

So don’t just focus on tech stocks. Going forward, you should pay more attention to crude oil and US Treasury yields. They’re the real remote controls for global risk assets right now.
#美股 #原油 #科技股

The financial market is, in essence, a way to monetize cognition.

If you believe you have insights, come to the market and cash them in.

If you think you don't, you can also come in to test it.

The market will only tell you the answer through profit and loss. Welcome to the world of challengers!

A few days ago everyone was scrambling to escape; today they’re scrambling to buy again.

South Korean stocks surged 17.9% in a single day: Samsung rose 28%, and SK hynix rose 30%.

The market suddenly figured out one thing: if the money spent on AI can be turned into profits, then it isn’t a bubble.

But a one-day rally doesn’t mean the risks are gone. A real bull market depends on orders, earnings, and a continuous inflow of capital—not just a one-day turnaround in sentiment.

How outrageous is this Samsung earnings report?
In Q2, operating profit was about 89.5 trillion KRW—up more than 19x year-on-year—basically making money off AI, HBM, and storage price hikes.
So what happens next?
The stock price should drop… but will it?
The old market was:
Earnings beat expectations → funds immediately pile in.
Now the market is:
Earnings beat expectations → first, see if it can get even better;
Growth not fast enough → drop;
Capital expenditures too high → drop;
Slightly conservative guidance for the future → still drop.
What investors worry about isn’t that Samsung can’t make money today, but rather how long storage price hikes can last, whether the frenzied capacity expansion could lead to oversupply, and whether Chinese manufacturers will start fighting for profits.
The market no longer buys “good earnings”—it’s voting on whether things can stay good in the future.
This may be the most dangerous change in global tech stocks right now.

Late-day pullback in the Han market, but the truly dangerous signals haven’t changed.

The KOSPI fell more than 8% during the day, but ultimately ended down 6%. SK Hynix logged record profits, yet its stock price closed down 9.4%, while Samsung fell 4.8%.

Months ago, results that beat expectations lifted the market. Now, when earnings are merely average, the stock falls; even when earnings are strong but don’t exceed the most optimistic forecasts, it still falls. The market isn’t punishing current-period profits—it’s pricing in an overextended valuation and a future that has already been discounted too aggressively.

Is a market crash coming? Global AI chip stocks are going through a valuation stampede:

🇰🇷 South Korea: The KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker yesterday and closed down 10.8%. It fell another 8.2% at midday today; $SK hynix fell 12.6%, and Samsung Electronics fell 8%.

🇺🇸 United States: Micron fell 8.9%, AMD fell 8.1%, and Applied Materials fell 7.8%.

Most ironic of all: now, as long as you release earnings results, the stock will drop. SK hynix just turned in a record 60.5 trillion won quarterly operating profit, up about sixfold year over year, yet its share price keeps plunging.

Next, watch three things:
1️⃣ Whether U.S. chip stocks continue their heavy-volume selloff
2️⃣ Whether major tech companies can prove that AI investments are turning into cash flow
3️⃣ Whether the Federal Reserve signals even stronger rate hikes

After South Korea’s stock market falls, US chip stocks take over.

Ahead of the bell, Micron is down 4.6%, Applied Materials is down 3.5%, and Nvidia is also declining. What the market is worrying about now is no longer just a domestic DUV system, but the previously lofty valuations of AI chip stocks—whether they can withstand intensifying competition and falling returns on capital expenditures.

The most important signal tonight: after the market opens, whether investors truly step in to buy the dip—not just how much stocks are down premarket.