蜡币小鑫

It’s been exactly nine years since I entered the crypto industry.

Over those nine years, I’ve experienced almost every sector in crypto.

I got into crypto in 2017, right in the middle of the ICO craze and a major bull market. Binance was also founded that year, and I invested heavily in the BNB ICO.

From taking part in all kinds of ICOs and private sales, to speculating on memes, arbitrage trading, and farming airdrops; from the rise and fall of the NFT era to the age of inscriptions—I’ve weathered just about every storm in crypto.

Of course, I’ve also experienced plenty of ups and downs along the way. But I’m grateful that, over my nine years in crypto, I’ve built something from nothing and gained a lot.

If you could go back to 2017, what would you say to your younger self?

Binance Prediction Master kicks off today, with a 1 million USDC prize pool. How much can one account earn?

Competition period

Beijing time: October 21, 08:00–November 16, 07:59.

How it works: Complete tasks to earn points → use points to make predictions → climb the season and weekly leaderboards.
You can close a prediction early or hold it until settlement. Your points balance will change based on the prediction outcome.

How to earn points

① Early-bird registration: Users who registered in advance received an extra 200 points. Registration is now closed.

② Daily check-in: 10 points per day Monday through Thursday, 20 on Friday, 30 on Saturday, and 40 on Sunday—for a total of 130 points for a full week.

③ Post in Square: Publish an event-related post longer than 20 characters and include
#币安神算子 #BinancePick
. You can complete this task once per day. Remember to check its status.

④ Trading tasks: Make at least $50 in eligible daily trading volume on Spot, Convert, or Futures; or make at least $5 in actual daily trading volume in the Prediction Markets within Binance Wallet
@predictdotfun-华语
. These also earn daily task points. Zero-fee trading pairs do not count toward the first requirement.

⑤ Invite friends: Earn 300 points for each eligible new user, up to 50 users per season. Friends must register and sign up after the season starts, and complete a first deposit of at least $10.

⑥ Points top-up station: If your points balance is below 100 and you meet the eligibility requirements, you can claim points once a day to bring your balance up to 100.

💰
How much can one account earn?

Based on an estimated 100,000 participants, the overall prize pool works out to about 10 USDC per person. The actual amount depends on the prize tier:

🔹
Check-in participant accounts: Check in on at least 5 days and receive no season leaderboard or weekly leaderboard rewards to qualify for a share of 100,000 USDC. Assuming 50,000–80,000 people qualify and split it equally, that’s about 1.25–2 USDC per account, capped at 5 USDC per person.

🔹Season leaderboard accounts: Finish the season with a positive points balance and rank in the top 20,000. 500,000 USDC ÷ 20,000 means an average of about 25 USDC per winning spot.

Weekly leaderboard accounts: Finish the prediction week in profit and rank in the top 8,000. Each week, 100,000 USDC ÷ 8,000 means an average of about 12.5 USDC per winning spot.

If you qualify for the season leaderboard and all four weekly leaderboards, the total would be about 75 USDC based on the equal-split estimates above.

These figures are estimates based on average prize-pool distribution. Actual rewards per account depend on the official prize tiers.

Seeing everyone in the group already getting in, $DNA made a killing

A lot of people bought right at launch, and it’s already doubled or tripled at the highs

I was so anxious I couldn’t sleep half the night, so I took advantage of the pullback and bought in with $5,000 for fun

I just took a look at Predict’s FDV prediction market, and it seems pretty interesting.

500M: 71%
800M: 50%
1B: 34%
2B: 22%

There’s still a 34% chance of a $1B FDV, and surprisingly, a 22% chance of $2B.

This suggests that while the market doesn’t see a valuation above $1B as the mainstream expectation, some people are still willing to bet on a high valuation.

Predict shouldn’t be valued like an ordinary prediction market.

CZ has mentioned it publicly several times, it’s a traffic gateway to the Binance ecosystem, the prediction market sector has plenty of room to grow, and Predict already has a points system and user base—all of these are important factors in its future valuation.

The cost of PP is gradually approaching $0.05. If its TGE valuation ends up at only $300M or $500M, those paying a high cost to earn points now will all lose money.

If Predict ultimately reaches an FDV of $1B or more, that would be a pretty good return.

After all, it’s one of the most noteworthy prediction market projects in the Binance ecosystem, backed by traffic, an ecosystem, and a compelling sector narrative.

That said, the market’s median expectation of an $800M FDV is also worth taking seriously.

What do you think Predict will be worth at TGE?

$500M, $800M, $1B, or $2B?

Wishing everyone a Happy National Day! My wallet assets will soar into the blue skies in October—unstoppable, charging forward; rising step by step, climbing to new heights with every stride, soaring into the sky like an arrow. My future looks bright and promising. I’m the best! I’m the best! I’m the best!

Thanks for inviting Token 2049 by Binance—who’s going?

Looking forward to Binance’s event in SG on October 7

I didn’t participate in Polymarket, but on Predict, there was an event related to Polymarket that cost me 10,000 U.

As Polymarket’s valuation kept climbing, why could the story of buying it still lead to losses?

Polymarket’s valuation in 2024 was around $350 million for that round; in 2025 it was around $1.2 billion for that round.
Later, ICE took an equity stake, corresponding to a pre-money valuation of about $8 billion;
In the spring 2026 funding round, according to media reports, the valuation was close to $15 billion.
In September, the market also reported a new financing valuation of around $21 billion.

I spent $112 million to acquire the licensed trading venue QCEX and enter the U.S. regulated market;
In addition to investing, ICE also plans to distribute Polymarket’s prediction data to institutions.

DeFiLlama shows that over the past 30 days, on-chain trading volume on the Polygon chain was about $2.21 billion, and U.S. off-chain business was about $2.252 billion; funds locked on-chain are about $361 million.

The issue is on the trading side: people aren’t actually buying the same ticket.

The subscription price for PPOLY was $15.5; when I checked the price, it was about $17.05. On the other side, Aster’s POLYMARKET/USD1 perpetual contract was about $21.58 USD1, which is roughly 26.6% higher than pPOLY.

One is an indirectly exposed token issued by a third party; the other is a perpetual contract. The price gap is right there—so you can’t treat it as risk-free arbitrage.

Now look at the Predict data:

On the first day of the IPO, the closing market value exceeded $15B, $20B, and $25B; the “YES” prices were approximately 30%, 27%, and 23%, respectively.

It’s not just betting on valuation—it’s also betting that Polymarket can IPO before the end of 2027; if it doesn’t get listed by then, all tiers are judged “NO.”

So when the private market talks about $21 billion, it doesn’t mean that buying “over $20 billion” guarantees profits.

Polymarket’s story has already moved from on-chain prediction/guessing to the U.S. market, institutional data, and a possible IPO.

But for those who received the air drop and participated on the secondary market, they’ve already been badly hurt.

In the Chinese-speaking community, no one says Polymarket is good. They hope Predict will use the Binance wallet entry to pin Polymarket to the pillar of shame.

When the market comes, you have to be bold and act

Just yesterday I said that an old-school MEME hadn’t risen yet, and in the middle of the night they all pumped together

When the market moves, sectors will rotate and run up one by one

You might not believe yourself, but you can’t not believe your cousin @CZ

This round of gains has nearly squeezed the bears—shouldn’t it be time to squeeze the bulls too?

Aster has launched the POLYMARKETUSD1 perpetual contract

In this round of Polymarket funding, the benefits may not be limited to Polymarket itself.

From a sector perspective, I actually think this is a solid win for Predict.

Polymarket’s previous funding valued it at around $12 billion. It later rose to $15 billion, and now the market is even starting to discuss valuations above $20 billion. More importantly, the funding agreement reportedly includes token warrants.

This is good not only for Polymarket, but also for Predict.

Previously, Predict needed to prove to the market first whether prediction markets are a business that can be developed long-term.

Now Polymarket has already completed most of the education for the entire industry.

What Predict needs to prove next is no longer whether the sector has a future, but whether it can capture a portion of users, trading volume, and liquidity from it.

Also, prediction markets are not strictly winner-takes-all.

Users will use multiple platforms at the same time, comparing odds, depth, and settlement efficiency. Price gaps between platforms will also attract arbitrage capital to move back and forth.

The bigger Polymarket gets, the more users and capital it brings in; in the end, some of that will spill over to Predict.

The valuation logic is the same.

When the valuation of the market leader is pushed up to $20 billion, capital will naturally look for targets in the same space with lower valuations and faster growth. At that point, Predict becomes the most direct sector proxy.

So whether it’s Polymarket’s funding or the expectations around token issuance, the impact on Predict is not just competitive pressure.

Polymarket is responsible for taking prediction markets from 0 to 1—boosting the industry’s valuation, doing education, and driving liquidity.

What Predict needs to do is, over the next 1 to N stages, secure its own position.

At least for now, prediction markets no longer need to prove whether they have a future.

Your cousin @CZ gave another hint, so you know what to do next, right?

Seize every opportunity during market downturns!

Teachers, happy holidays! Thank you for everything you’ve done for me this past year—teaching me what memes are, what application coins are, what unbeatable angles are, and all of it.

📣predict.fun's API Key can now be requested by yourself!

Previously, to get a Predict API Key, you had to first join the official Discord, then open a Support Ticket, explain your use case, and wait for manual review and issuance.

Now this process has finally been simplified. You no longer need to issue invoices in Discord—just go directly to the developer console:

Application steps:

1️⃣ Open the Developer Console
You can register and log in using Discord, Google, or email.

2️⃣ Create an Application
After entering the dashboard, select Create Application, then fill in the application name and purpose according to the prompts.

3️⃣ Generate an API Key
Once the app is created, you can generate a new Key. After copying it, be sure to store it securely. Do not post it in group chats, take screenshots, or upload it to public code repositories.

4️⃣ Check Usage
In the backend, you can directly view API call volume, your current limit, and usage status. Management is much clearer than before.

5️⃣ Request a Higher Tier
API limits are divided into Volume-based Tiers based on your transaction volume over the past 30 days. Once you meet the corresponding criteria, you can manually request a higher tier in the backend.

6️⃣ Import Old Keys
API Keys previously obtained via Discord can also be imported into the new backend for unified management.

According to the official documentation, the default limit for mainnet API Keys is:
240 Requests/Minute

However, note that new applications’ order placement and cancellation requests are also subject to a separate Trade Burst Limit restriction. 240 RPM does not mean you can place and cancel orders indefinitely at high frequency.

Also, an API Key is only a credential for the mainnet interface. If you want your program to place orders, cancel orders, or read personal orders, you’ll also need to sign with your wallet to obtain a JWT.

The South Korean market is also joining the coin-stock craze—AVAX is getting a leg up

South Korea is preparing to move settlement for bonds, funds, stocks, and even stablecoins onto the blockchain, and $AVAX has already made its way into the financial infrastructure of a major brokerage.

Hanwha Investment & Securities began development with FairSquare Lab as early as 2025, and the platform is now complete, supporting networks such as Avax and HypeBesu. Although it is not exclusive to AVAX, being able to enter the technology stack of a major brokerage alongside enterprise-grade blockchains is itself an important institutional endorsement.

The relevant South Korean laws will take effect on February 4, 2027, formally recognizing distributed ledgers for securities registration.

The regulatory roadmap will start with institutional bonds, private MMFs, and unlisted stocks, gradually expand to publicly issued securities, and eventually explore an on-chain payment system connected to stablecoins. Financial Services Commission of Korea

Hanwha is clearly not doing a one-off proof of concept:

→ Hanwha affiliates collectively hold about 9.6% of Securitize
→ Invested about KRW 30 billion in Digital Asset, the company behind Canton Network
→ Completed an Avalanche-compatible tokenized securities platform
Issuance, registration, circulation, settlement—it is assembling an entire tokenized finance landscape.

The real bullish case for AVAX is not “how much fees it will add immediately,” but rather:

Before South Korea’s securities tokenization is officially opened up, Avax has already secured a ticket into the technology stack of licensed financial institutions.

Once financial infrastructure completes compliant integration, custody, and system integration, switching costs become extremely high. Getting into the tech stack today could mean taking part in standards-setting, asset issuance, and liquidity accumulation tomorrow.

Of course, it has not yet been disclosed whether the platform is deployed on the public C-Chain or whether AVAX is used to pay gas, so one cannot directly equate securities scale with AVAX buying pressure.

In the past, the market priced AVAX as “just another public chain”;

In the future, the market may reprice it as—

Hanwha is only the entry point; the real incremental upside is South Korea’s capital markets moving on-chain.

Missed the big money
Pounding the chest and stamping the feet
Started fomo
Grinding to farm chains
All kinds of rugs
Charging wildly at beasts
Keep recharging
Going crazy getting ripped off
Crying in agony
Sitting idle is useless
Review and accept defeat
Start slacking off
Missed the big money