老鲍的币风港

7.20 Big-pizza bear power fully revealed—still watching for 618 soon

Old Bao’s Coin Harbor Episode 393:

While the price of Big Pizza gradually rose after dipping to 577 at the beginning of the month,

it has clearly started to be pressured at the resistance line around 64–65,

and the daily-level golden cross is almost being worn out and coming to an end,
while the price remains unable to get a proper bounce.

So what this indicates here is that the big rebound the market is temporarily looking for likely won’t come.
Instead, the chances of breaking below the new low have increased quite a bit.

PS:

Long pieces talk about trends; short pieces talk about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while buy/sell levels are the least worth mentioning.

Everyday videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your long-term attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Harbor.

7.9 The big BTC pancake oscillation is about to end—bears are launching a fierce attack on 618
Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor Episode 392:
After the price of BTC has kept falling and then rebounded, it has been consuming bearish momentum while
also steadily increasing indicators for longs on lower timeframes. However, one point is worth noting:
indicators on the higher timeframe show absolutely no change.
Looking at it this way, the bullish indicators on lower timeframes may just be carrying out a bull trap.
The market is about to break down—be cautious. Being prudent is more reliable than blindly chasing pumps or panic-selling.
P.S.:
Long-form talk covers trends; short-form talk covers logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, and least worth considering are entry/exit price points;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor;

7.8 The big pancake continues to maintain a choppy trading trend; the price will enter a triangular range
Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port Episode 391:
In recent days, market fluctuations have been getting smaller and smaller. The pattern of falling during the day and rising at night has happened continuously for two days.
Today’s daytime session is again moving downward. Based on the indicators, it seems that after the price has exhausted the bullish momentum of the smaller timeframe, it is once again heading toward a decline.
However, on the higher timeframe, there are signs that the death crosses across various levels are converging, so the bigger directional move is still hard to judge in the short term.
I think a one-way opportunity hasn’t arrived yet. It’s more likely to keep trading in a range. After the pancake loses its high-volatility “luster” attribute,
reduced market liquidity is also one of the reasons it has kept moving sideways.
PS:
In the trading market, long-form talks focus on trends, short-form talks focus on logic. What’s most expensive is trading logic, and what’s least valuable is the buy/sell entry levels;
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port;

7.7 After the large coin insertion pin rebounds again after 618, the market still looks optimistic; ranging consolidation box remains
Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang Episode 390:
Yesterday I said the Monday market might drop to form the intra-week low.
In the daytime, I’d be watching the strength of the 618 support. By nighttime, I got blinded by that earlier drop.
That led me to execute incorrectly and chase a short at 618. The result was a heavy hammer from a seasoned pro—bam!
At the moment, after the price rebounded from 618, it was once again suppressed by the level at 64 and fell again. So it’s already very clear that, in the short term, the market is in a consolidation range.
During the day, I’ll continue to plan to deal with it at the high side around 64, and at 618 I’m looking to run/exit.
P.S.:
Long-form explains trends, short-form explains logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic; the least worth mentioning is buy/sell price levels.
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thanks for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

7.6 Large pancake rises early due to non-farm impact; downside momentum lacking—price may still dip below 618 in the short term
Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port Episode 389:
Last week, our entire trading approach was thrown off by the release of the non-farm data.
This is unavoidable; it’s the kind of result you can’t estimate.
In the past two years, the market on every Monday basically determines the high or low for the week.
And considering that in the short term the price tends to rebound, while at smaller timeframes it tends to pull back, then today it might drop out below the intraday low.
After that, there will be repeated consolidation and upward movement, until the price returns to the 66k resistance level, after which it will start falling again.
PS:
Long-form explanation is about trends; short-form explanation is about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, and the least worth mentioning is buy/sell entry levels.
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support of Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port.

7.1 The big monthly candle line closes down; early in the month there’s still a crash-like行情
Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang Episode 388:
Yesterday’s price first tested the buying strength around 58k. After the rebound, it remains in a weak state.
Moreover, the short-term price range is continuously moving lower, forming a stepped-down pattern.
The monthly candle’s body is a bearish (yin) candle closing below 60k. Our first reaction to that is: the price still has to keep falling.
After the release of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, this view may be confirmed.
PS:
When it comes to trends, a long story; when it comes to logic, a short one. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is trading logic, while buying/selling levels are the least worth mentioning.
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your long-term attention and support of Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

6.30 Big Cake: The long/short battle and key moves are still around 60k—one more “shakeout” needed
Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang Episode 387:
Last night, the drop we expected didn’t happen. Instead, the price went back up to test the sell pressure in the 606–608 zone.
It turns out that once the bulls show up, more sell orders come in to hammer the market down. As a result, even if the price holds steady around 59k in the short term, it isn’t a lasting solution.
At the moment, the only possible way for the price to rebound is for it to first oversell—only overselling would attract more buy orders to enter, and push more sellers to exit.
Otherwise, Big Cake will keep following a sideways-to-downward rhythm, with no hope of a rebound.
PS:
Long stories talk about trends; short stories talk about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while buy/sell levels are the least worth mentioning;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

6.29 Weekly Chart for Big Pie: Broke the 60K Support, Still Weak Overall—Within the Week We May See 53K
Lao Bao’s Coin Wind Harbor Episode 386:
After several days of consolidation, on the weekend the Big Pie tried to break through the 608 level twice, but was pushed back down.
From Friday to now, the market has provided more than two opportunities for our 60.8K push, and our strategy of reducing positions at 59K continues to shine.
So this is a pleasant weekend: after the weekly chart fell below 60K earlier in the day, the close is set below 60K, and the rebound during the Asian session has once again weakened.
So tonight, we expect further downside.
PS:
Long-form content talks about trends; short-form content talks about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while buy/sell levels are the least worth mentioning.
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thanks for your continued attention and support of Lao Bao’s Coin Wind Harbor.

6.26 Finally Hits the $50K Range: Ample Momentum, Still Paired with the Moving Average Line to Continue Falling
Old Bao’s CoinWind Harbor Episode 385:
After yesterday’s 4H wiped out the long (bullish) trend on Bitcoin, the price formed a “window”
After the sell-off went deep, the reason rebounds occurred twice and the probability is high is that the massive short covering by the bears led to a surge in buy pressure—combined with long positions entering via contracts
One point worth noting: every time the price rebounds upward, while the buy pressure weakens, the selling pressure increases quite a bit as well
Therefore, the bottom this week is not expected to be only as simple as 58k—so after today’s repair and the direction is set, it will continue to fall
PS:
Long-form discusses trends, short-form discusses logic—in the trading market, what’s most expensive is trading logic, while what’s least worth mentioning are the buy/sell levels;
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s CoinWind Harbor.

6.25 Bitcoin breaks 6, triggering a mass exodus of shorts and a price rebound that leads to further decline
Old Bao's Crypto Haven Episode 384:
This week, since Monday, we've been emphasizing
That Monday was likely to hit the weekly high before the price started a one-way bearish trend.
Last night's drop was so deep that it forced a lot of high-position shorts to exit, resulting in a surge in buying pressure and a price rebound.
After the price rebound, some of the shorts chasing below 6 were liquidated, allowing the price to continue rising and boosting bullish confidence.
Currently, this rebound may appear strong in the short term, but in the larger cycle, it remains in a bearish position.
Therefore, I believe the decline isn't over; there's still room for shorts to keep harvesting.
PS:
Long discussions on trends, short discussions on logic; in the trading market, the most valuable is trading logic, and the least significant is entry and exit points;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao's Crypto Haven.

6.23 Bitcoin's weekly high has been hit, and a drop is coming to a breakout point
Old Bao's Crypto Port Issue #383:
Yesterday, we talked about the Monday morning rise which was likely a setup to hit the weekly high.
On the candlestick charts, it's clear that the bears are holding the upper hand, leaving us with only shorting options and deciding where to short.
The short-term bullish rebounds are getting weaker, indicating that as we approach month-end, the market is more inclined to believe that Bitcoin will drop from the 6k range back to the 5k range or even lower, as the intraday trend remains bearish.
PS:
Long discussions on trends, short discussions on logic; in the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, and the least important are entry and exit points;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao's Crypto Port.

6.22 BTC Bouncing Weakly on Positive News, Looking at 620 Support Intraday
Old Bao's Crypto Wind Port Issue #382:
BTC is still in a recovery and rotation phase after the recent massive drop.
It's worth noting that the rebound this time is relatively weak.
By past trends, after a drop from 80k, it should quickly bounce back to around 68-70k before dropping again.
However, this time, we haven't seen that typical scenario, which indicates that this round of recovery hasn't gained much bullish support.
Therefore, the price is still expected to drop in the short term, targeting 50k on the monthly chart as the endpoint.
PS:
Long discussions on trends, short talks on logic; in the trading market, the most valuable is trading logic, while entry and exit points are trivial;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thanks for your continuous support and attention to Old Bao's Crypto Wind Port.

6.12 BTC Oscillation Wraps Up This Week, Next Week's Formation Will Confirm the Downtrend
Old Bao's Crypto Harbor Issue #381:
BTC showed a strong performance in yesterday's overall market action.
This pretty much validates what we discussed during the day about prices needing to correct.
It's worth noting that while BTC appears quite robust, the rebound range isn't significant.
It's more like it's just creating a box space for correction. So, as bears, we just need to consider entering at the top of this range.
PS:
Long reads on trends, short reads on logic; in the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, the least noteworthy are buy and sell levels;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thanks for the ongoing support for Old Bao's Crypto Harbor.

6.11 CPI meets expectations, leading to a depletion of downward momentum; expect continued consolidation in the short term.
Old Bao's Crypto Harbor Issue #380:
Yesterday's CPI came and went rather uneventfully, which we were all eagerly anticipating.
The main reason is the significant drop in core CPI data, which has given the market a bit of confidence.
In the short term, any dips may encounter some resistance, but the overall trend is hard to stop.
After the consolidation phase is complete, we should see Bitcoin closing the month in the $50k range.
PS:
Long-form discussions are about trends, while short-form talks are about logic; in the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, and the least significant is entry and exit points.
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued support and interest in Old Bao's Crypto Harbor.

6.9 Bitcoin consolidation nearing its end, 4H golden cross momentum fading, a big drop is on the horizon

Old Bao's Crypto Port No. 379:
On Monday's candlestick, we maintained the idea that the price would rebound to 64k for a potential entry.
This idea has been validated from last night through today. Currently, the overall candlestick structure still favors the bears.
So in the short term, at the 61.8k level, all we need to do is trim our positions and continue waiting for a breakdown or a rebound back to 64k to add positions back.
Tomorrow night's CPI data will be key and could act as a trigger for a new round of declines.
PS:
Long discussions on trends, short discussions on logic; in the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while entry and exit points are of little consequence;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao's Crypto Port.

6.8 Bitcoin Bears Keep Pressing After Initial Correction
In this week's edition of Old Bao's Crypto Harbor #378:
Last week's overall market was like a holiday for the bears, and the slight weekend rebound was merely a bounce back to our first target zone.
I believe many savvy traders are looking to short at the 64k level. However, the 4-hour golden cross momentum is gradually being consumed.
Once that's fully spent, we can expect another wave of bearish volume. Right now, Bitcoin's liquidity is at its peak.
With significant divergence between bulls and bears at the 60k level, daily fluctuations are slightly better than the past few months. Yet, with opportunities and risks coexisting, it's crucial to manage your positions carefully.
PS:
Long discussions about trends, short ones about logic. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is trading logic, while entry and exit points are often trivial.
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued support of Old Bao's Crypto Harbor.