kithe

Teachers, can you pass this follow task?

#创作者大奖

Okay, okay, okay, playing secretly again, huh?

During the hour starting at 23:00 last night, MBL surged from 0.000758 to 0.001381. It’s now at 0.000947, giving back most of its gains.

Each rebound since then has been lower than the last: 0.001260, 0.001100, and 0.001060, with volume also declining. After such a sharp rally, I’d rather see it return to its previous trading range, where it moved sideways at 0.000720–0.000860 for the three weeks before that.

I’ll wait for it to return to 0.000850–0.000880 before adding a little spot. That was the high it failed to break through several times in late September. I’ll keep the position small, set a stop-loss at 0.000805, and look first for 0.000980, then 0.001100. If a 4H candle closes below 0.000810, I’m out.

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.

$MBL

Came across some data: the exchange balance for $BTC has dropped another notch.

Put simply, coins have been withdrawn from the exchange.

Where they went, we don’t know. Could be a cold wallet, could be institutional custody—either way, they’re no longer sitting on the order books.

You can’t call this bullish based on that move alone.

But when you look at it alongside the recent activity on the ETF front, it gets interesting.

On one side, ETFs are gradually absorbing supply; on the other, coins are being withdrawn on-chain.

Both sides are taking coins off the market.

Whether prices react right away in the short term is hard to say.

But at least it suggests that people looking to sell aren’t as eager as they were before.

If you’re keeping an eye on things, watch whether exchange balances keep falling or start flowing back in.

If they keep falling, coins really are being locked up.

If they flow back in, then all this excitement was for nothing.

I’m personally leaning positive, but I’m not rushing to chase it.

I just saw some data: $ETH ’s exchange balance has fallen to its lowest level in years.

Put simply, there are fewer coins sitting on exchanges ready to be sold.

That doesn’t necessarily mean prices will rise right away, but it does show one thing: quite a few people have withdrawn their coins and aren’t planning to sell at this price.

They may be staking them, or moving them to cold wallets to hold.

Either way, the result is the same: there’s less supply on the market that can be dumped at any moment.

That’s the exact opposite of what we saw last year, when exchange balances kept rising. Back then, everyone seemed to be lining up to sell. Now it looks more like people are locking their coins away and sitting tight.

I think this signal is more meaningful than looking at the candlestick chart alone. You can draw whatever you want on a chart; it’s harder to fake on-chain balances.

Of course, don’t get carried away. Low balances don’t mean prices will shoot up immediately. If demand doesn’t follow, prices could still move sideways for a long time.

My take: cautiously bullish, but I’m not chasing. If you want to keep an eye on things, watch whether exchange balances keep falling and whether spot buying can pick up.

If the money stays on the sidelines, withdrawals alone won’t take us far.

Someone's started scooping up $BTC again.

I just noticed that an old wallet that had been dormant for a long time has become active.

It transferred a few hundred $BTC to an exchange.

The first reaction is bound to be panic.

But hold on a second.

This one transaction alone doesn't really tell us anything.

An old wallet moving coins could mean it's about to sell.

Or it could just be moving them somewhere else.

Or simply reorganizing its holdings.

That's a different thing from “a whale is about to dump.”

What really matters is what happens next.

If more and more coins are transferred to exchanges over the next few days,

then the selling pressure is worth taking seriously.

As for this one transaction, I don't think there's any need to scare ourselves.

Let's see what happens next.

There are fewer and fewer $ETH coins sitting on exchanges.

I came across this data and did a double take, then thought it made sense.

The $ETH balance on exchanges is now relatively low compared with the past few years.

Put simply, fewer people are willing to keep their coins on exchanges, ready to sell at any moment.

There are two sides to this.

The good news is that there are fewer coins available to dump, so supply is tightening.

But don't rush to call for a huge rally.

A low balance doesn't mean the price will rise right away. People may have moved their coins into staking or cold wallets.

What really matters is whether the price follows through from here.

If $ETH goes up while exchange balances keep falling, that would mean coins are genuinely being locked up.

If the price doesn't move, even a low balance won't help.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not chasing it.

I'll wait for it to make the first move.

PIXEL has surged from 0.0059 to 0.0082 in three 4H candles. Should I chase it now?

I’m not chasing. This move broke straight through 0.0066–0.0068, a level that had been capping the price from late September through 10/4. The price is now at its highest since mid-May, and volume is several times higher than it was over the past few days. There are actually more accounts short than long, open interest is up 80%, and the funding rate is pretty flat. I think there are still short positions that will need to be covered.

I’ll wait for a pullback to 0.0069–0.0072 before entering, with a stop at 0.0065. I’ll first look for 0.0088, then 0.0092. If the 4H candle closes back below 0.0066, I’ll consider it a false breakout.

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.

$PIXEL

There’s a data point I looked at twice this week.

The balance on exchanges, $BTC , dropped another notch.

Put simply, coins are moving off exchanges.

What’s interesting is that it’s not just one or two wallets moving coins—it’s been a steady decline.

In other words, fewer people are willing to keep their coins on exchanges to sell.

But don’t rush to call it a breakout just yet.

A falling exchange balance could mean people are holding their coins, or moving them to cold wallets for other reasons.

This number alone isn’t enough to tell us it’s purely buying pressure.

What I care more about is what happens next: if the balance keeps falling and the price holds steady, that means there are real buyers stepping in.

At this level, I’m neither chasing it nor shorting it.

I’m just watching to see whether this trend continues.

There are fewer $BTC on exchanges again.

I just saw this figure, and my first thought was—oh, someone’s withdrawing coins again.

It’s not complicated. Fewer coins on exchanges means fewer tokens readily available to dump on the market.

But don’t rush to call it a supply crisis.

There are plenty of reasons to withdraw coins. They might be moving them to cold wallets, placing them in institutional custody, or simply not wanting to keep them on an exchange.

What really matters isn’t how much was withdrawn this time.

It’s the direction.

If coins keep flowing out for several weeks in a row, that suggests holders aren’t in a hurry to sell. That signal is far more useful than a single day’s data.

On the other hand, if a large amount suddenly flows back onto exchanges one day, that’s when you should be cautious.

As things stand, I’d say the supply is gradually being locked up—but it’s still too early to call for a rally.

Just keep an eye on the trend over the next few weeks.

I just saw some on-chain data.

An address withdrew several thousand $BTC from an exchange.

My first thought was: another whale making a move.

But honestly, this one transaction alone doesn’t tell us much.

A withdrawal could mean someone’s holding and not selling, or they could simply be moving their coins to another wallet.

What I care more about is what happens next.

If the amount of $BTC held on exchanges keeps falling over the next few days, then that’s getting interesting.

It would mean there are genuinely fewer sellers.

At this price, I’m not too keen on chasing it.

Let’s first see whether this trend continues.

One or two transfers don’t tell us much.

It’s worth paying closer attention when withdrawals keep happening.

I just saw some data saying that $BTC on exchanges has decreased a little more over the past week.

Put simply, coins have been withdrawn from exchanges.

Whether they’re being moved to cold wallets or transferred to another chain, there’s a little less supply available to dump in the short term.

But don’t rush to shout “to the moon.”

Withdrawing coins doesn’t mean they definitely won’t be sold—they can be transferred back at any time.

What really matters is what happens next: if the price holds steady after the withdrawals, it suggests some people are holding and aren’t in a hurry to sell.

If the price keeps falling, they’ve probably just moved their coins somewhere else.

What I’m more interested in is whether this wave of withdrawals is passive lockup or active accumulation.

The former doesn’t mean much; the latter is worth watching.

First, let’s see whether the market can hold up over the next couple of days.

Someone's started scooping up $BTC again

Just saw some data.

An address that had been quiet for quite a while suddenly sprang into action, buying more than 3,000 $BTC .

At first glance, it looks pretty significant.

But when you look closer, it’s not really all that remarkable.

A single buy doesn’t tell us much.

What’s really worth looking at is what this wallet was doing before.

If it belongs to a seasoned player, then this move is kind of interesting.

At the very least, it suggests someone thinks the current price isn’t too high.

But don’t rush to follow them.

One transaction doesn’t make a trend.

What I care more about is whether exchange net inflows change over the next few days.

If funds keep moving off exchanges, then that’s when someone’s really accumulating.

For now, just keep an eye on things.

Don’t get carried away just because you see the word “whale.”

These past couple of days, $BTC has been hovering around 【Current Price X】, unable to move either up or down.

Put simply: neither buyers nor sellers are in a hurry.

Two figures make it clear.

First, money is still slowly flowing into ETFs, but at a slower pace than before.

Second, coins on exchanges haven’t been moving out much lately.

The money hasn’t left, but no one is rushing to buy either.

That’s interesting.

It’s not that nobody’s optimistic; everyone’s just waiting for a reason.

Waiting for what? For the price to move first.

Whoever loses patience first will be the first to give up their position.

For now, I’m leaning toward waiting and seeing.

If you’re watching anything, watch one thing: whether trading volume picks up.

Without volume, any rally is hollow.

If it holds above 【Resistance X】 on strong volume, I’ll consider turning bullish.

Until then, there’s no point rushing.

I just saw a set of data.

The exchange balance of $BTC has dropped again.

Put simply: coins are being withdrawn from exchanges.

Don’t get excited just yet.

Withdrawals don’t mean the price is about to rise.

But they do indicate one thing at least—someone isn’t in a hurry to sell.

I might have glanced right past data like this before.

Now I take a closer look.

Because when there are fewer coins on exchanges, prices can shoot up if more people want to buy.

On the other hand, if the coins get deposited back after being withdrawn, that’s a different story.

So what matters most now isn’t how much was withdrawn.

It’s whether any of it gets deposited back later.

If it doesn’t, I’ll lean a little bullish.

If it does, then this data was pointless to look at.