杀破狼 WolfyXBT

The bull market for Bitcoin has ended, and we have now entered a bear market.

The peak of this bull market occurred on 2025/10/06, with the price of Bitcoin at 126,000. I also do not wish to speak negatively about my career, but according to the "four-year cycle theory," the price of Bitcoin has indeed peaked. I just want to convey this fact to more newcomers who have entered this cycle.

In my opinion, the "Bitcoin halving" has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin; it is much larger than any other event (macroeconomics, regulatory policies, geopolitical issues, wars, pandemics, etc.). The four-year cycle theory is a cyclical theory that revolves around Bitcoin halving, and it is currently the most reliable cyclical theory in the cryptocurrency space, without exception.

The core of the four-year cycle theory is: "Bitcoin halving" dominates the rhythm of Bitcoin's bull and bear transitions, dividing the fluctuations of a Bitcoin bull and bear cycle into 4 parts, which are:

Bull Beginning >> Halving >> Bull End >> Bear Market

Before the "halving," there will be a "Bull Beginning,"
After the "halving," there will be a "Bull End,"
The "halving day" will be interspersed in the "middle region" of the entire bull market,
The duration of the "Bull Beginning" and "Bull End" is basically similar,

After the "Bull End," there will be a bear market lasting 1 year, and then we will wait for the next "halving day" to drive the next "Bull Beginning" market, and so on, ad infinitum.

From the diagram below, we can see that the "Bull End" of this round has already concluded, and we have officially entered the "Bear Market" zone. Even if the date I mentioned may not be absolutely accurate, there is no need for us to continue betting in this zone.

How long does it take for Huang Renxun’s fans to exceed Sha Po Lang?

Damn, Huang Renxun has joined X! He just posted his first tweet!

Making money in life relies on Kondratiev waves; making money in crypto relies on Wolf waves

I just invented a new indicator called the Wolfy Wave Index (WWI). This indicator lets us understand very intuitively which stage of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle we are currently in.

The indicator oscillates in a cycle between 0 and 1 based on Bitcoin’s block height.

The closer the WWI is to 1, the closer we are to the top of a bull market;
The closer the WWI is to 0, the closer we are to the bottom of a bear market.

The current WWI value is 0.226.

The date corresponding to the last time the WWI value was 1 was 「2025/10/12」, and the corresponding Bitcoin price was 115,090. It basically correctly predicted the bull-market top. The next date corresponding to a WWI value of 0 is expected to be around 「2026/11/08」, which also matches my rough prediction for this bear market’s bottom.

You can check the current WWI value in real time on this website: https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/

I'll teach you how to pronounce WolfyXBT, you useless wipe your nose

When speaking Chinese, don’t mix in English; when speaking English, don’t mix in Chinese. Say it cleanly and clearly, and go all in to speak a language well. Don’t treat slipping English into Chinese as something very advanced—because sooner or later, that will lead to failure.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2:0 Still Laughing

Learning AI—if your learning speed isn’t fast enough and your learning methods aren’t scientific enough, you might as well not learn it at all. Because the pace at which model capabilities improve will continuously outstrip and replace what you’ve learned.

What you learn today, tomorrow’s model can complete directly.

So either make sure your learning speed is fast enough so that speed becomes your greatest competitive advantage, or make sure your learning methods are scientific enough so that what you learn can appreciate with improvements in model capability, instead of being overtaken by it.

Today kimi-k3 is released, surpassing fable-5;
Yesterday gpt-5.6-sol was released, surpassing fable-5;
The day before yesterday grok-4.5 was released, surpassing opus-4.8;
Three days ago glm-5.2 was released, surpassing opus-4.8;
Four days ago fable-5 was released, surpassing gpt-5.5;
Five days ago minimax-m3 was released, surpassing gpt-5.5;
Six days ago opus-4.8 was released, surpassing gpt-5.5;
Seven days ago deepseek-v4 was released, surpassing opus-4.7;
Eight days ago gpt-5.5 was released, surpassing opus-4.7;
Nine days ago opus-4.7 was released, surpassing opus-5.4.

Oh wow, how did Anthropic in China drop 30% in a single day today? 😭

Lu Benwei has returned

On Douyin everyone has already stood up; on X they haven't yet stood up

Now, everyone stand up

Share your nude photos, or share your ChatGPT chat logs.

Pick one—what would you choose.

OpenAI released a keyboard accessory, selling for 1,500 yuan and 200 yuan shipping

If something like this were made by Huaqiangbei, what would the cost be? Is it difficult?

Zhipu is China’s Anthropic;
DeepSeek is China’s OpenAI;
ChangXin Memory is China’s Micron;

Anything else?

Can you call me the Malaysian Coin God? I really, really beg you. This is my lifelong wish. First, set aside the imitation season—at least I accurately predicted a bearish move at 126,000 and 82,000. If you still think I’m really not good, then when Bitcoin drops to 35,000, you can call me the Malaysian Coin God then as well.

I'm doomed

Multiple Army's Last Chance to Escape to Nogi Kana

After I made some money, I replaced the toilet paper I used to wipe with wet wipes.

From then on, my asshole has always been very clean—there’s never any residue left after I take a dump.

Bitcoin is still one last breath away from the real bottom

As soon as this breath arrives, it will be the most panic-inducing moment in the crypto market in four years. Chasing the bottom right now is still too early. Only when the Wolf Wave Cycle Index enters the deep-blue zone is the correct time to bottom-fish. Then, just don’t let fear scare you into not buying the dip.

Stop endlessly chattering and saying I’m cold and won’t reply.

I’ve already followed almost 8,000 accounts. No matter how you search on Chinese-language Twitter (CP推), you won’t find an account with 800k followers that can follow this many people. I think that by the time I’ve already followed more than 8,000 accounts, if your account is still missing from that, then chances are it’s not my problem—it’s probably your account’s problem.