姜楠的笔记

When anxious, go work out or learn English.
Because this is one of the few things in the world that "as long as you put in the effort, you will definitely be rewarded."

Making money is not like that.
Making money has never been linear; the more you work, the more you earn—not necessarily; it often happens suddenly, it’s about timing, cycles, and the random leaps that come after accumulation.

Yet many people remain stubborn:
The more they trade, the more they lose; they become shareholders from trading stocks, landlords from flipping houses, and end up with a husband from dating...
They think persistence is the direction, but the result is just losing more and more in life.

So don’t use all your energy to chase money.
Reclaim your life, strengthen your body, and add another dimension to your language, and you will find:
What can change you is not working harder, but being healthier, clearer, and freer. #共勉

Korea's inflation has surged to a two-year high, and to put it bluntly, it's been dragged down by Middle Eastern oil prices. Even though the Korean government is hustling to keep fuel prices in check, ticket prices and other services are already on the rise, and the momentum of price hikes isn't likely to slow down anytime soon.
Now the Vice Governor of Korea is coming out hawkish, and there's a high chance that things will change by the end of May. As long as the rate hike in July doesn't hit the market, the tightening liquidity expectations will be like a knife hanging over the market's neck.

This week, the market's gearing up for some major events that could directly impact risk assets:
1. US-Iran negotiations: Iran's proposing to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict. If talks resume, it's bullish for the market.
2. Bank of Japan decision: Expected to hold steady, with a focus on forward guidance. If they lean hawkish, it could be bearish; if inflation is seen as temporary, it’s bullish.
3. Federal Reserve decision: Expected to pause interest rate hikes; keep an ear out for Powell's remarks.
4. Earnings reports from tech giants: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Apple are set to drop their earnings, collectively accounting for over 25% of the S&P 500's weight.
5. US ISM PMI: April data drops on Friday; staying above 52 signals economic expansion.

Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan is having a meeting. If they clearly announce an interest rate hike in June, the yen is hanging by a thread on those rate hike expectations. If they continue to hesitate and don't provide a solid statement about the June hike, then any verbal intervention will just become a joke, and global funds will definitely kick the USD/JPY exchange rate over the 160 mark. For us, this macro-level bomb, once it detonates, will lead to a massive unwinding of yen carry trades, triggering a liquidity earthquake that will surely impact the crypto market.

Since the Bank of Japan hasn't revealed their cards yet, let's not catch this falling knife. I'd rather miss out on this minor rebound in the yen than risk emptying my bullets at this critical moment. The best strategy is to sit tight and watch how these central bank big shots wrap things up.

Bitcoin's bull market score has bounced back to 50. Right now, both the bulls and bears are standing their ground.
Back in March 2022, this index also hit 50, and the market was yelling 'the bull is back', but then $BTC plummeted from 48k straight down below 20k.

So, just because the index is warming up doesn't mean the bull is back. The current derivatives market is still pointing towards range-bound volatility rather than a sustained breakout, with front-end volatility being sluggish and skew still leaning towards bearish protection. So this score is just smoke and mirrors; your capital is what really matters.

Trump's tariffs will continue to be maintained, and the expectation of a strong dollar still exists, making it difficult for the market to trend upward.

In my personal opinion, the real variable is not the tariffs themselves, but how China responds. If the tariff war escalates into a full-scale trade war, and the global supply chain is reshaped, this narrative is what the crypto market truly needs to focus on as the macro main line.

The Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates in April due to the chaotic situation in the Middle East. What is really worth paying attention to is June. Even if there is no action in April, the central bank is likely to give a strong hint at this meeting that it may take action as early as June. After all, inflationary pressures are present.

Many speculative funds like to look for cryptocurrencies that are listed on Binance, OKX, and Coinbase at the same time, and have a relatively low market capitalization to ambush.

For ordinary retail investors, this is certainly reliable; at least they won't run away. These speculative funds use this kind of institutional endorsement to eliminate retail investors' fear of withdrawing from meme projects, allowing them to dare to invest heavily.

How many people are currently holding $RAVE ? This coin has risen from 0.3 to break 18, with a monthly increase exceeding 6,000%. Currently, the circulation of $RAVE only accounts for about 25% of the total supply, and the top three wallet addresses control nearly 90% of the chips. This means that the market makers have a high level of control, and the cost to drive up the price is very low. This type of coin can skyrocket without warning, and when it falls, there will be no support. The current 14-day RSI has reached 95, indicating an extremely overbought state. It is recommended to pay attention to its funding rates and the changes in the top ten holding addresses. Once large whales are found to be offloading in bulk, one must decisively exit.

In the past two days, $BTC has been fluctuating above 70k, the market is not particularly strong, but it hasn't weakened either.
It now looks more like a consolidation at a high level rather than an end of a trend.
The initial resistance is seen in the range of 73k to 73.8k above.
Below, 70k is still a key psychological level, and 71.5k is a short-term support.
If it can stabilize and continue to push upwards, the market will look to test the previous high again.
However, if 70k is lost, the rhythm is likely to weaken, and support may need to be found below.

In my personal view, the current $BTC is still in a high-level structure, the bears haven't truly broken through, and the bulls haven't fully opened up space.

Several signals that the market fears the most have now gathered together.

Oil prices have broken through 110 dollars.
This is currently the biggest macro variable. The oil price of 110 dollars has already surpassed the red line for many economists. Inflation expectations are heating up again, and the Federal Reserve is even less likely to cut interest rates. The expectation of tightening liquidity directly suppresses risk assets.

The Trump tariff war has reignited.
Trump has started to threaten to impose tariffs on other countries again. What the market fears the most is this kind of uncertainty. The longer the trade war lasts, the more chaotic the global supply chain becomes, and the greater the inflationary pressure.

The U.S.-Iran situation is fluctuating.
Previously, Trump said troops would withdraw in 2-3 weeks, and the market was optimistic for a moment. Now there has been no movement. The news is inconsistent, and capital is hesitant to enter the market.

In my personal opinion, with these three factors combined, market funds are withdrawing from risk assets, and the market will continue to fluctuate until a clear signal emerges.

The big pancake returns to 71k, is this time really different?
$BTC rose from around 68.7k yesterday to 72.7k, nearly a 3000-point increase, which is the largest single-day increase in a while.

Since the end of March, the trend has been fluctuating in the 65-68k range for nearly two weeks. Today, it finally returned to 71k.

To be honest, there isn't particularly clear fundamental good news. It's more about technical recovery + capital rotation.
Several factors are worth noting:
First, on the US-Iran situation, Trump has recently been making remarks, and the market is trading on the expectation of "geopolitical easing." If oil prices fall, inflation pressure will ease, and liquidity expectations will improve, which is favorable for $BTC .
Second, altcoins have shown strong explosive power today. Funds are flowing from mainstream coins to small-cap assets, indicating that market risk appetite is recovering.
Third, the 71k level has been sideways for two weeks, and today it finally broke through, indicating that bullish momentum is building.

71k is the previous high point of the fluctuation range, and a breakthrough requires real money. It is still uncertain whether the breakthrough is valid.
If $BTC can stabilize at 71k, we can look up to 73-75k. If it falls again, pay attention to the support at 69k.

The topic of quantum computing threatening Bitcoin comes up for speculation every so often. It's essentially not about the issue of $BTC , but rather creating anxiety in a bear market.

In my personal view:
1. The target is wrong
If quantum computing can crack elliptic curve encryption, its primary target would not be Bitcoin. The total network computing power of Bitcoin is only a few hundred billion dollars. But how much is the banking system? The global financial derivatives market exceeds 500 trillion dollars.
When that day comes, Bitcoin won't be the issue; the banking system will be the first to collapse.
2. Asymmetric offense and defense
Bitcoin uses elliptic curve encryption (ECC), but cracking it with quantum computing requires a universal quantum computer and a sufficient number of stable quantum bits. Right now, Google's "1000 qubit" sounds like a lot, but it is several orders of magnitude away from being able to crack ECC.

So my view is:
The narrative that quantum computing threatens Bitcoin sounds scary but is logically unfounded. Every time Google publishes a new paper, the crypto world speculates for a round, and then it goes nowhere.
What should be genuinely concerning are those old systems that lack upgrade capabilities; Bitcoin is actually the one most likely to upgrade proactively.

Nomura has pushed the interest rate cut expectations to September, can $BTC hold up?
Today there is an important macro message.
Nomura Securities has delayed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from June to September and December. There are two reasons:
First, the conflict in the Middle East has arisen, oil prices are under upward pressure, and inflation risks are resurfacing.
Second, the nomination process for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has been delayed, resulting in a policy vacuum before the new chairman takes office, and no one dares to take action.
In simple terms: there is no courage to cut interest rates in the short term.

What does this news mean for the market?
Delayed interest rate cut expectations → The dollar remains strong → Liquidity tightens → Risk assets come under pressure.
This morning $BTC rebounded from 65 to 67, and $ETH rebounded from 1,980 to 2,045. It looks strong, right?
But Nomura's report is a hedge.
Rebound or not, macro pressure has not disappeared. In mid-April, there will be Walsh's hearing, and the market will have to reprice then.

However, Nomura also mentioned a medium-term logic: after the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office, there may be a quick easing.
In other words, there will be short-term pain, but a big package may come in the medium term.
This is the recent market—constantly trading on this expectation gap.

My judgment: this wave of rebound today can be participated in, but don't get carried away. There is a hearing in April, and the volatility is not over yet. Don't take too heavy a position, keep some bullets for better opportunities.

Let's chat together

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by the end of the year exceeds 30%. The market is still debating whether to lower rates in June or September. Now, with the gunfire from the Middle East, interest rate hikes have returned to the negotiating table. The surge in oil prices may cause U.S. inflation to rise again and prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or shift to raising rates.

As long as the unemployment rate remains stable and Powell has not stepped down, the Federal Reserve will fight inflation to suppress soaring oil prices, even at the cost of stalling the economy.

The current trend of Bitcoin is similar to the previous plunge to $60,000, with $65,800 becoming a key support level.

In my personal opinion, the wave that dropped from $100,000 at the end of 2025 also showed this kind of upward sloping small channel. This trend seems to be rising, but in fact, it lacks strength.
This slow climb consumes bullish funds the most. It's like climbing a mountain; if it's a constant slow climb without supplies (new funds entering the market), in the end, it often leads to exhaustion and directly falling off a cliff.

If it really reaches $65,800, it would not just be a technical breakdown, but rather a collapse caused by bullish panic, with a target aimed directly at $60,000 or even lower.

In the past, the market would plunge only when interest rate hike expectations were high and would only rebound upon seeing interest rate cuts.
Now, the market dares to plunge as long as there are no interest rate cuts, even the 'maintaining the interest rate' has become the fuse for a sharp drop.

The strongest resistance level for Bitcoin is coming.
In the past six months, top institutions (clients of BlackRock and Fidelity) have entered the market with an average holding price of around $80,000. Currently, they are still in a state of floating losses.
From the perspective of retail investors, losses would be unbearable, but institutional clients face profit pressure. Once the price returns to $80,000, institutions may choose to break even, close positions, or reduce holdings to balance their balance sheets.

The current global economy😛