疯狂的Jerrick
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疯狂的Jerrick
🤖 AI trains me to become a professional trader.
12Y Software Engineer｜10Y Crypto
工程师视角研究Crypto，不喊单，只聊逻辑。
Quant Strategy｜Automation｜AI｜Livestream
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Open Trade
BNB Holder
High-Frequency Trader
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If every bull market (mini bull market) has signs of getting started, then I see a very positive signal. That is the launch of the platform token.
1) OKB has already kicked into gear early, and it has stabilized and consolidated at a high level with no major negative feedback. It’s different from the old days of stretch rallies. If it were only a short squeeze, then it would have already turned downward.
2) If it were just OKB’s rally, I wouldn’t consider it a good sign. So tonight I saw BNB start its move, and it has already broken through the prior small range-bound consolidation area.
If I’m not mistaken, in every previous bull market (mini bull), it was accompanied by the platform token launching first.
It’s like in the stock market, brokerages are the flag-bearers of a bull market.
The switching of capital isn’t only SPACEX—there’s also Crypto.
So everyone can allow themselves a small anticipation.
#BNB_Market_Update
1) OKB has already kicked into gear early, and it has stabilized and consolidated at a high level with no major negative feedback. It’s different from the old days of stretch rallies. If it were only a short squeeze, then it would have already turned downward.
2) If it were just OKB’s rally, I wouldn’t consider it a good sign. So tonight I saw BNB start its move, and it has already broken through the prior small range-bound consolidation area.
If I’m not mistaken, in every previous bull market (mini bull), it was accompanied by the platform token launching first.
It’s like in the stock market, brokerages are the flag-bearers of a bull market.
The switching of capital isn’t only SPACEX—there’s also Crypto.
So everyone can allow themselves a small anticipation.
#BNB_Market_Update
Honestly, I don’t dare to short easily anymore.
1. Yesterday, Jasonleo posted the “last chance to board” theory. Even though the big guys’ previous long positions were stopped out, old advice still needs to be listened to.
2. Today, I took a serious look at the recent ETF fund inflows and outflows. And regardless of BTC or ETH, the funds are showing the same pattern: net inflows. Such a strangely consistent five days of synchronized buying is something that hasn’t happened in a long time.
3. On the BTC daily chart, the downtrend line has already been broken, and there are signs of it poking its head out.
4. Although recently, whether it’s storage, AI, or even Musk’s rockets, they’ve grabbed a lot of attention and liquidity in the crypto space, the big BTC hasn’t weakened and continued downward. Instead, it’s been moving up steadily in small steps. So every time you think it’s time to short it, it can come back and slap you with a reversal when the U.S. stock market opens.
5. Recently, the U.S. stock market has hit new highs—S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gold has also broken out of its daily-level ranging box, and that also has a driving effect on BTC.
6. The Fear & Greed Index is currently back to 40, back in the neutral zone. From last October until now, the Fear & Greed Index has basically formed a daily-level head-and-shoulders-bottom pattern—this is unprecedented in history and extremely rare.
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线
1. Yesterday, Jasonleo posted the “last chance to board” theory. Even though the big guys’ previous long positions were stopped out, old advice still needs to be listened to.
2. Today, I took a serious look at the recent ETF fund inflows and outflows. And regardless of BTC or ETH, the funds are showing the same pattern: net inflows. Such a strangely consistent five days of synchronized buying is something that hasn’t happened in a long time.
3. On the BTC daily chart, the downtrend line has already been broken, and there are signs of it poking its head out.
4. Although recently, whether it’s storage, AI, or even Musk’s rockets, they’ve grabbed a lot of attention and liquidity in the crypto space, the big BTC hasn’t weakened and continued downward. Instead, it’s been moving up steadily in small steps. So every time you think it’s time to short it, it can come back and slap you with a reversal when the U.S. stock market opens.
5. Recently, the U.S. stock market has hit new highs—S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gold has also broken out of its daily-level ranging box, and that also has a driving effect on BTC.
6. The Fear & Greed Index is currently back to 40, back in the neutral zone. From last October until now, the Fear & Greed Index has basically formed a daily-level head-and-shoulders-bottom pattern—this is unprecedented in history and extremely rare.
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线
Now looking back, my understanding of the storage sector is also correct.
But I didn’t hold onto it,
because there are other sectors that look even more promising.
Gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are all coming to the fore.
And the narrative of the massive sell pressure around SpaceX has also pushed me to put more of my focus on SpaceX’s stock.
Yes, I’ve also gotten some results.
The rest of the story still needs time to unfold.
Recently, I’ve been doing a live trading challenge from 500U to 1M.
The situation over the past month has been pretty good:
500U-> 74U -> 500U->700U+
Feel free to go watch on my public account.
#SK海力士拟191万亿韩元投建M17工厂
But I didn’t hold onto it,
because there are other sectors that look even more promising.
Gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are all coming to the fore.
And the narrative of the massive sell pressure around SpaceX has also pushed me to put more of my focus on SpaceX’s stock.
Yes, I’ve also gotten some results.
The rest of the story still needs time to unfold.
Recently, I’ve been doing a live trading challenge from 500U to 1M.
The situation over the past month has been pretty good:
500U-> 74U -> 500U->700U+
Feel free to go watch on my public account.
#SK海力士拟191万亿韩元投建M17工厂
疯狂的Jerrick
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Let me share a few of my insights on the next encrypted cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH), the storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX), and the Musk-related theme (SPCX, TSLA):
1. Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH):
I was in a bearish mode for a while, but now I’m suddenly not as bearish. The main reasons are as follows:
1）On August 3, MicroStrategy did an update on its buy/sell activity. It sold more than 1,300 BTC, but the impact on the market wasn’t very damaging. The market didn’t immediately drop in response. This may be because market expectations have already been “priced in.” So this round of selling coins is just the realization of a bearish factor—the bearish expectation being realized means it won’t truly be bearish anymore.
2）The ETF data has been trending upward these past two days. Institutions bought 211.5M yesterday and 170.1M the day before. These are real, hard-money net inflows, which have absorbed a substantial portion of bearish sentiment.
However, overall, BTC’s market liquidity is still insufficient. The U.S. stock market has been moving extremely wildly recently, but BTC has only followed slightly—it hasn’t been really falling much, and it hasn’t been really rising much either. Overall, it’s just hovering at the 4-hour downtrend line. A few days ago I even thought it might plunge dramatically, but now I no longer have any short positions.
2. Storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX):
1）At 4:30 a.m. in Beijing time, SanDisk will release its earnings report. Recently, SanDisk has been moving very aggressively alongside U.S. stocks—every day it’s at least up around 10% as a baseline. If the earnings come out above expectations, there could be another wave of a sharp spike.
2）The entire storage sector recently has been following the broader U.S. market. The S&P is hitting new highs—so it really proves the saying: don’t short anything; don’t short the U.S. stock market. In contrast, the A-share market is still in the bottoming-and-rebounding phase.
3）Actually, I’ve always thought storage wouldn’t move up so quickly. Personally, I think there will be a “second dip” (a second test of lows). So recently I’ve mostly been bearish and shorting, but last night I already cut two short positions to stop losses.
3. Musk-related theme (SPCX, TSLA): In the comments.
#SpaceX财报前涨9.8%
$BTC $SPCX $SNDK
1. Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH):
I was in a bearish mode for a while, but now I’m suddenly not as bearish. The main reasons are as follows:
1）On August 3, MicroStrategy did an update on its buy/sell activity. It sold more than 1,300 BTC, but the impact on the market wasn’t very damaging. The market didn’t immediately drop in response. This may be because market expectations have already been “priced in.” So this round of selling coins is just the realization of a bearish factor—the bearish expectation being realized means it won’t truly be bearish anymore.
2）The ETF data has been trending upward these past two days. Institutions bought 211.5M yesterday and 170.1M the day before. These are real, hard-money net inflows, which have absorbed a substantial portion of bearish sentiment.
However, overall, BTC’s market liquidity is still insufficient. The U.S. stock market has been moving extremely wildly recently, but BTC has only followed slightly—it hasn’t been really falling much, and it hasn’t been really rising much either. Overall, it’s just hovering at the 4-hour downtrend line. A few days ago I even thought it might plunge dramatically, but now I no longer have any short positions.
2. Storage sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX):
1）At 4:30 a.m. in Beijing time, SanDisk will release its earnings report. Recently, SanDisk has been moving very aggressively alongside U.S. stocks—every day it’s at least up around 10% as a baseline. If the earnings come out above expectations, there could be another wave of a sharp spike.
2）The entire storage sector recently has been following the broader U.S. market. The S&P is hitting new highs—so it really proves the saying: don’t short anything; don’t short the U.S. stock market. In contrast, the A-share market is still in the bottoming-and-rebounding phase.
3）Actually, I’ve always thought storage wouldn’t move up so quickly. Personally, I think there will be a “second dip” (a second test of lows). So recently I’ve mostly been bearish and shorting, but last night I already cut two short positions to stop losses.
3. Musk-related theme (SPCX, TSLA): In the comments.
#SpaceX财报前涨9.8%
$BTC $SPCX $SNDK
Really, if there hadn’t been this big bullish candle, I genuinely think Bitcoin would just have gone to sleep like that.
The stored sectors have pretty much already been played up.
The S&P has recently made a new high.
Gold and silver have already broken out.
Even BTC now seems to be hinting at a breakout.
Looks like the BTC that’s been quiet for so long is finally going to refuse to be outdone.
It’s time to add a bit of color to the crypto world that’s been silent for so long.
What’s interesting is that in the last time there was a decent bounce, BTC took roughly about two months to adjust—this time it’s also just about two months.
If you really take the time to go back and read further, you can find lots of similar two-month adjustment windows.
Anyway, I’ve already summarized this before:
Every year, BTC has a round of bull market.
It’s just the difference between a big bull market and a small one.
For this round, personally I don’t see it going too high—I’m only treating it as a rebound for now.
#BTC Breaks Through the Daily-Level Downtrend Line
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线
The stored sectors have pretty much already been played up.
The S&P has recently made a new high.
Gold and silver have already broken out.
Even BTC now seems to be hinting at a breakout.
Looks like the BTC that’s been quiet for so long is finally going to refuse to be outdone.
It’s time to add a bit of color to the crypto world that’s been silent for so long.
What’s interesting is that in the last time there was a decent bounce, BTC took roughly about two months to adjust—this time it’s also just about two months.
If you really take the time to go back and read further, you can find lots of similar two-month adjustment windows.
Anyway, I’ve already summarized this before:
Every year, BTC has a round of bull market.
It’s just the difference between a big bull market and a small one.
For this round, personally I don’t see it going too high—I’m only treating it as a rebound for now.
#BTC Breaks Through the Daily-Level Downtrend Line
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线
疯狂的Jerrick
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BullishSpcx now feels like a new listing stock in a bull market—it’s starting to gather momentum and get ready to move.
Right now, besides being bullish on Spcx, I also bought a bit of silver.
In this account, I don’t hold any positions in silver. But in another account, I do.
There are two reasons to be bullish on silver:
1）Gold has already formed a complete double-bottom structure, and after that it developed into a standard converging pattern breakout. Then it broke through the top of the hourly timeframe trading range, and the trend is very strong.
2）Similarly for silver. Silver and gold are essentially in perfect resonance.
3）Silver already broke through the top of the large-scale (daily timeframe) trading range before gold did, and then gold followed through and also broke out. I entered my long position at the top of the trading range, and I’m currently slightly in profit.
Whether it’s gold breaking out of a large-scale trading range, or Spcx having its massive post-unlocking buy order absorb the sell pressure, the next steps are all aimed at creating room for even larger upside.
Tonight, we’ll see the show from Wall Street’s financial predators.
Let’s wait and see.
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线
Right now, besides being bullish on Spcx, I also bought a bit of silver.
In this account, I don’t hold any positions in silver. But in another account, I do.
There are two reasons to be bullish on silver:
1）Gold has already formed a complete double-bottom structure, and after that it developed into a standard converging pattern breakout. Then it broke through the top of the hourly timeframe trading range, and the trend is very strong.
2）Similarly for silver. Silver and gold are essentially in perfect resonance.
3）Silver already broke through the top of the large-scale (daily timeframe) trading range before gold did, and then gold followed through and also broke out. I entered my long position at the top of the trading range, and I’m currently slightly in profit.
Whether it’s gold breaking out of a large-scale trading range, or Spcx having its massive post-unlocking buy order absorb the sell pressure, the next steps are all aimed at creating room for even larger upside.
Tonight, we’ll see the show from Wall Street’s financial predators.
Let’s wait and see.
#黄金突破1月下行趋势线
Based on the unblocking of SpaceX stock, I wanted to take a look at some historical data from the US market.
You don’t know until you look—turns out there’s actually something to it.
I originally just wanted to check historical data, but I still ended up seeing some reasons for anticipation.:
Facebook (now Meta, FB) — November 14, 2012: a large-scale unblocking day (releasing about 777 million shares). The stock closed up 12.5% that day (rising from the previous day’s close of $19.88 to $22.36), and trading volume increased by about 3x. After that, it continued rising, and by the end of the month it had gained over 40% in total. At the time, the company had strong earnings-report momentum support.
Shake Shack (SHAK) — July 29, 2015: the 180-day lock-up period after the IPO expired that day. The stock jumped about 20%, setting the largest single-day gain since listing at the time. Trading volume was close to doubling. There was no major news from the company that day; the market interpreted it as strong investor confidence in the company’s growth, plus short-covering support.
Snowflake (SNOW) — January 2021: unblocking allowed early investors to sell about 37.9 million shares. The market had expected pressure, but the stock still climbed about 6% that day (after having already risen more than 13% the previous day), continuing the uptrend.
However, historical data can only be a reference and doesn’t constitute one-to-one results.
It’s only a bit of psychological comfort for those who hold positions.
Still, we must respect the market.
Act according to your instincts.
Let profits be left to probability.
#SpaceX9.115亿股周四解禁 $SPCX
You don’t know until you look—turns out there’s actually something to it.
I originally just wanted to check historical data, but I still ended up seeing some reasons for anticipation.:
Facebook (now Meta, FB) — November 14, 2012: a large-scale unblocking day (releasing about 777 million shares). The stock closed up 12.5% that day (rising from the previous day’s close of $19.88 to $22.36), and trading volume increased by about 3x. After that, it continued rising, and by the end of the month it had gained over 40% in total. At the time, the company had strong earnings-report momentum support.
Shake Shack (SHAK) — July 29, 2015: the 180-day lock-up period after the IPO expired that day. The stock jumped about 20%, setting the largest single-day gain since listing at the time. Trading volume was close to doubling. There was no major news from the company that day; the market interpreted it as strong investor confidence in the company’s growth, plus short-covering support.
Snowflake (SNOW) — January 2021: unblocking allowed early investors to sell about 37.9 million shares. The market had expected pressure, but the stock still climbed about 6% that day (after having already risen more than 13% the previous day), continuing the uptrend.
However, historical data can only be a reference and doesn’t constitute one-to-one results.
It’s only a bit of psychological comfort for those who hold positions.
Still, we must respect the market.
Act according to your instincts.
Let profits be left to probability.
#SpaceX9.115亿股周四解禁 $SPCX
The logic is actually quite clear.
The expected market direction from the financial reports.
When a negative turns into reality, it becomes a bullish market.
#SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期 $SPCX
The expected market direction from the financial reports.
When a negative turns into reality, it becomes a bullish market.
#SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期 $SPCX
疯狂的Jerrick
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I think the biggest trading opportunity these two days (the 4th and 5th) comes from SpaceX!
SpaceX’s big rocket is about to receive two major updates:
1. Beijing time tomorrow (August 5) at 4:00 a.m. will be the time SpaceX releases its Q2 earnings report, and it will also be the first earnings report disclosure after SpaceX’s listing.
2. On the evening of August 6 (Thursday) at 21:30 Beijing time (the regular U.S. stock market open time), the first batch of up to 911.5 million shares (about 20% of the total share capital) will be released from lock-up.
These two events will directly cause SpaceX’s stock price to experience tremendous volatility.
And people like us in the crypto circle naturally place importance on how the market responds after the earnings report is released and around the period before and after the stock’s lock-up ends, as well as the stock price’s direction and trading volume.
1. Beijing time tomorrow (August 5) at 4:00 a.m. will be the time SpaceX releases its Q2 earnings report, and it will also be the first earnings report disclosure after SpaceX’s listing.
2. On the evening of August 6 (Thursday) at 21:30 Beijing time (the regular U.S. stock market open time), the first batch of up to 911.5 million shares (about 20% of the total share capital) will be released from lock-up.
These two events will directly cause SpaceX’s stock price to experience tremendous volatility.
And people like us in the crypto circle naturally place importance on how the market responds after the earnings report is released and around the period before and after the stock’s lock-up ends, as well as the stock price’s direction and trading volume.
Monitored for several weeks, MicroStrategy finally made a move.
Previously there were conference calls saying they would keep selling coins and increase their USD reserves to pay interest.
But for a long time, they never showed any extra action on their website.
Today, they finally updated it.
After three weeks, they have finally sold 1,638 Bitcoins again.
No wonder that in recent days, many large institutions’ ETFs have been constantly dumping.
At the same time, during this period BTC’s uptrend has been extremely weak.
Now it feels like the “stone has finally landed.”
This kind of landing will undoubtedly increase expectations for further selling.
Going forward, it will be hard to look for an upside in BTC.
Teachers, what do you think?
#微策略要卖比特币 $BTC
Previously there were conference calls saying they would keep selling coins and increase their USD reserves to pay interest.
But for a long time, they never showed any extra action on their website.
Today, they finally updated it.
After three weeks, they have finally sold 1,638 Bitcoins again.
No wonder that in recent days, many large institutions’ ETFs have been constantly dumping.
At the same time, during this period BTC’s uptrend has been extremely weak.
Now it feels like the “stone has finally landed.”
This kind of landing will undoubtedly increase expectations for further selling.
Going forward, it will be hard to look for an upside in BTC.
Teachers, what do you think?
#微策略要卖比特币 $BTC
If you wanted to give Trump a title, what would you want it to be?
I hope it’s “the Disband-Drum Performance Artist.””
Truly, there’s no one more suited to stock trading than him.
And no one more suited to trading crypto than him.
In the past, it was people who built their business empires by erecting skyscrapers, developing luxury hotels, and building golf courses—yet in his later years, he not only became president, launched lightning-fast campaigns, and captured other country’s presidents; he also keeps on trading crypto, trading stocks, and drawing K-line charts.
Nearly all risk assets have to pay homage to his remarks.
Now, no matter what the current situation is, and no matter what the president’s approval rating is, his determination to love stock trading will never change.
And his confidence in striking Iran will never change either.
He’s a performance artist—one who only says what will make his K-line charts more favorable, caring nothing about other people’s lives.
No matter the reason, the repeated, triple-checked—eight times—call to halt the attack on Iran is already standard procedure.
The “wolf is coming” story can happen many times; with him, it can be countless times.
He says to stop, and they stop—maybe he just wasn’t ready yet.
His talk always reduces defense spending more than his actions do.
On the one hand, it’s to reduce ammunition consumption and save money for the army.
On the other hand, it’s so he can make money for himself in the stock market.
What a great performance by the disband-drum artist.
I hope it’s “the Disband-Drum Performance Artist.””
Truly, there’s no one more suited to stock trading than him.
And no one more suited to trading crypto than him.
In the past, it was people who built their business empires by erecting skyscrapers, developing luxury hotels, and building golf courses—yet in his later years, he not only became president, launched lightning-fast campaigns, and captured other country’s presidents; he also keeps on trading crypto, trading stocks, and drawing K-line charts.
Nearly all risk assets have to pay homage to his remarks.
Now, no matter what the current situation is, and no matter what the president’s approval rating is, his determination to love stock trading will never change.
And his confidence in striking Iran will never change either.
He’s a performance artist—one who only says what will make his K-line charts more favorable, caring nothing about other people’s lives.
No matter the reason, the repeated, triple-checked—eight times—call to halt the attack on Iran is already standard procedure.
The “wolf is coming” story can happen many times; with him, it can be countless times.
He says to stop, and they stop—maybe he just wasn’t ready yet.
His talk always reduces defense spending more than his actions do.
On the one hand, it’s to reduce ammunition consumption and save money for the army.
On the other hand, it’s so he can make money for himself in the stock market.
What a great performance by the disband-drum artist.
The market is just this weak. After the storage sector rallied and got going on the 30th, it basically died on you the night of the 31st.
Clearly, this is a textbook oversold rebound—pushing it up gives everyone a chance to escape.
After that, it’s a tug-of-war as it builds a base: short-term over a few weeks, long-term over a few months.
If storage wants to bottom-fish, there will be plenty of opportunities.
As for me, I don’t have money, so I’m not planning to bottom-fish. I’m going to keep looking for places to short.
Bitcoin’s funding situation is the same—like it’s being bled out. There hasn’t been even a decent rebound. The candlesticks are extremely ugly.
It’s already ugly enough that all the big funds are scrambling to get out.
Let’s see where this short can take profit.
In any case, it’s either breaking even, or taking profit on a deep drop.
Lately I’ve been seeing many big V’s calling for the “final sell-off.” But when it actually drops, I don’t know how many people who are ready to bottom-fish will really be willing to place their orders.
I can go in. I’ll just look at the candlestick patterns and then make my move.
I’m not a big V. These are my personal views—just for record-keeping and not investment advice.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC $SKHYNIX
Clearly, this is a textbook oversold rebound—pushing it up gives everyone a chance to escape.
After that, it’s a tug-of-war as it builds a base: short-term over a few weeks, long-term over a few months.
If storage wants to bottom-fish, there will be plenty of opportunities.
As for me, I don’t have money, so I’m not planning to bottom-fish. I’m going to keep looking for places to short.
Bitcoin’s funding situation is the same—like it’s being bled out. There hasn’t been even a decent rebound. The candlesticks are extremely ugly.
It’s already ugly enough that all the big funds are scrambling to get out.
Let’s see where this short can take profit.
In any case, it’s either breaking even, or taking profit on a deep drop.
Lately I’ve been seeing many big V’s calling for the “final sell-off.” But when it actually drops, I don’t know how many people who are ready to bottom-fish will really be willing to place their orders.
I can go in. I’ll just look at the candlestick patterns and then make my move.
I’m not a big V. These are my personal views—just for record-keeping and not investment advice.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC $SKHYNIX
疯狂的Jerrick
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Bearish1. In recent days, crypto ETFs overall saw a modest net inflow (+$52.28 million), but the composition is clearly diverging: Bitcoin ETFs attracted $49.70 million, Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of $3.40 million, XRP had a small net inflow of $5.98 million, while Solana and HYPE ETFs had zero net inflow. Judging from recent Bitcoin technicals and fund flows, individuals still tend to be bearish.
2. The HYPE ETF has had continuous net outflows over the past two weeks. Although its total size reaches $286 million, after several days of consecutive bleeding, the forthcoming trading opportunities and market attention for Hype likely won’t be too much.
3. Recently, I’ve been analyzing and judging the market based on ETF fund inflows and outflows, but lately the divergence in inflows and outflows has made me a bit dull/less sharp. So I started looking for more information related to crypto assets.
1）For example, the custody positions of crypto-asset treasury companies. I saw that the top 100 listed companies worldwide collectively hold more than 1.26 million Bitcoins, with high concentration at the top (Strategy holds 540,000).
2）For example, I also looked at changes in sovereign funds’ holdings—whether they are increasing or reducing exposure—but it’s very hard to track sovereign funds’ changes, because not all sovereign funds can disclose in real time or transparently report what they’re doing. So this part of the tracking can be largely ignored.
So going forward, I may focus more on the treasury company’s funding changes related to ETFs.
4. Let me talk about myself: Yesterday my trading didn’t make much progress—there wasn’t much change—but the situation of my copy-trading/following account was surprisingly good. It may be because I chose an extremely good trader. Yesterday I was basically building the live-stream traffic-push platform; today it should be almost done. I estimate that going forward I won’t have to worry too much about being bothered by using too much traffic. At least now I have two lines I can run in parallel. One line is dedicated to pushing live-stream traffic, and the other is for things like web browsing.
5. Welcome everyone to follow along and grow together. $BTC
2. The HYPE ETF has had continuous net outflows over the past two weeks. Although its total size reaches $286 million, after several days of consecutive bleeding, the forthcoming trading opportunities and market attention for Hype likely won’t be too much.
3. Recently, I’ve been analyzing and judging the market based on ETF fund inflows and outflows, but lately the divergence in inflows and outflows has made me a bit dull/less sharp. So I started looking for more information related to crypto assets.
1）For example, the custody positions of crypto-asset treasury companies. I saw that the top 100 listed companies worldwide collectively hold more than 1.26 million Bitcoins, with high concentration at the top (Strategy holds 540,000).
2）For example, I also looked at changes in sovereign funds’ holdings—whether they are increasing or reducing exposure—but it’s very hard to track sovereign funds’ changes, because not all sovereign funds can disclose in real time or transparently report what they’re doing. So this part of the tracking can be largely ignored.
So going forward, I may focus more on the treasury company’s funding changes related to ETFs.
4. Let me talk about myself: Yesterday my trading didn’t make much progress—there wasn’t much change—but the situation of my copy-trading/following account was surprisingly good. It may be because I chose an extremely good trader. Yesterday I was basically building the live-stream traffic-push platform; today it should be almost done. I estimate that going forward I won’t have to worry too much about being bothered by using too much traffic. At least now I have two lines I can run in parallel. One line is dedicated to pushing live-stream traffic, and the other is for things like web browsing.
5. Welcome everyone to follow along and grow together. $BTC
1. In recent days, crypto ETFs overall saw a modest net inflow (+$52.28 million), but the composition is clearly diverging: Bitcoin ETFs attracted $49.70 million, Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of $3.40 million, XRP had a small net inflow of $5.98 million, while Solana and HYPE ETFs had zero net inflow. Judging from recent Bitcoin technicals and fund flows, individuals still tend to be bearish.
2. The HYPE ETF has had continuous net outflows over the past two weeks. Although its total size reaches $286 million, after several days of consecutive bleeding, the forthcoming trading opportunities and market attention for Hype likely won’t be too much.
3. Recently, I’ve been analyzing and judging the market based on ETF fund inflows and outflows, but lately the divergence in inflows and outflows has made me a bit dull/less sharp. So I started looking for more information related to crypto assets.
1）For example, the custody positions of crypto-asset treasury companies. I saw that the top 100 listed companies worldwide collectively hold more than 1.26 million Bitcoins, with high concentration at the top (Strategy holds 540,000).
2）For example, I also looked at changes in sovereign funds’ holdings—whether they are increasing or reducing exposure—but it’s very hard to track sovereign funds’ changes, because not all sovereign funds can disclose in real time or transparently report what they’re doing. So this part of the tracking can be largely ignored.
So going forward, I may focus more on the treasury company’s funding changes related to ETFs.
4. Let me talk about myself: Yesterday my trading didn’t make much progress—there wasn’t much change—but the situation of my copy-trading/following account was surprisingly good. It may be because I chose an extremely good trader. Yesterday I was basically building the live-stream traffic-push platform; today it should be almost done. I estimate that going forward I won’t have to worry too much about being bothered by using too much traffic. At least now I have two lines I can run in parallel. One line is dedicated to pushing live-stream traffic, and the other is for things like web browsing.
5. Welcome everyone to follow along and grow together. $BTC
2. The HYPE ETF has had continuous net outflows over the past two weeks. Although its total size reaches $286 million, after several days of consecutive bleeding, the forthcoming trading opportunities and market attention for Hype likely won’t be too much.
3. Recently, I’ve been analyzing and judging the market based on ETF fund inflows and outflows, but lately the divergence in inflows and outflows has made me a bit dull/less sharp. So I started looking for more information related to crypto assets.
1）For example, the custody positions of crypto-asset treasury companies. I saw that the top 100 listed companies worldwide collectively hold more than 1.26 million Bitcoins, with high concentration at the top (Strategy holds 540,000).
2）For example, I also looked at changes in sovereign funds’ holdings—whether they are increasing or reducing exposure—but it’s very hard to track sovereign funds’ changes, because not all sovereign funds can disclose in real time or transparently report what they’re doing. So this part of the tracking can be largely ignored.
So going forward, I may focus more on the treasury company’s funding changes related to ETFs.
4. Let me talk about myself: Yesterday my trading didn’t make much progress—there wasn’t much change—but the situation of my copy-trading/following account was surprisingly good. It may be because I chose an extremely good trader. Yesterday I was basically building the live-stream traffic-push platform; today it should be almost done. I estimate that going forward I won’t have to worry too much about being bothered by using too much traffic. At least now I have two lines I can run in parallel. One line is dedicated to pushing live-stream traffic, and the other is for things like web browsing.
5. Welcome everyone to follow along and grow together. $BTC
疯狂的Jerrick
·
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In this phase, you don’t need to look at any indicators anymore:
1. The capital flows of Bitcoin ETFs already say it all. The consecutive 5 days of net outflows from spot ETFs have already indicated that institutional money at this level no longer allows you to bounce to a higher position. Even a strong rebound is the standard spot to go short. The only question is: to achieve big results, you need staying power and discipline. Repeated up-and-down shaking is just off-market interference noise. Order-book exhaustion is the problem signal; what you need to do next is either stay out of the market, or go short.
2. Lately, no matter which exchange you look at, they’re all shouting toward TradFi. Almost every day there are new US stocks, Korean stocks, and various ETFs and funds flowing into the exchanges, further compressing liquidity in the crypto trading market. Even I, who used to not trade US stocks, have recently spent most of my time and trades on the most watched storage project. This shows that in this phase of crypto, unless there’s a massive piece of good news, it’s hard to even lift a small, reasonably priced head.
3. The storage and semiconductors that have been hyped up recently have collectively entered the darkest moment of halving-flag after halving-flag. In Korea, the streets are already packed with protesters and people demanding rights. The Korean finance minister has stepped in to crack down on chaotic leverage practices in Korea. But no matter how much they clean it up or require more margin, the trend has already started, and it will be very hard to go back. Investors who focus on fundamental research should have taken quite a roller-coaster ride in this round. After that, without a few months of consolidation, if it surges upward again, it will also be the best time for you to exit.
4. Let’s talk about trading: a few days of consecutive profits, and yesterday there was a pullback. I feel that the first 30 minutes after I open a trade are actually very hard to control. Going forward, you should still focus on exploring and researching your mindset in the first 20 minutes before you open the order, and then find a correct way to handle it. Deleveraging and having stop-loss amounts set within my reasonable psychological expectations are extremely important. They can almost determine whether I can respond to the coming volatility with a rational mindset. The losses yesterday caused by going long storage were also because the rebound strength of storage was still too weak. When big money comes, there must be a flagship, big bullish candle. If it’s mainly small funds participating in the game, wait until the time is right, then add position and trade the upside. $SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX #韩国限制杠杆ETF交易
1. The capital flows of Bitcoin ETFs already say it all. The consecutive 5 days of net outflows from spot ETFs have already indicated that institutional money at this level no longer allows you to bounce to a higher position. Even a strong rebound is the standard spot to go short. The only question is: to achieve big results, you need staying power and discipline. Repeated up-and-down shaking is just off-market interference noise. Order-book exhaustion is the problem signal; what you need to do next is either stay out of the market, or go short.
2. Lately, no matter which exchange you look at, they’re all shouting toward TradFi. Almost every day there are new US stocks, Korean stocks, and various ETFs and funds flowing into the exchanges, further compressing liquidity in the crypto trading market. Even I, who used to not trade US stocks, have recently spent most of my time and trades on the most watched storage project. This shows that in this phase of crypto, unless there’s a massive piece of good news, it’s hard to even lift a small, reasonably priced head.
3. The storage and semiconductors that have been hyped up recently have collectively entered the darkest moment of halving-flag after halving-flag. In Korea, the streets are already packed with protesters and people demanding rights. The Korean finance minister has stepped in to crack down on chaotic leverage practices in Korea. But no matter how much they clean it up or require more margin, the trend has already started, and it will be very hard to go back. Investors who focus on fundamental research should have taken quite a roller-coaster ride in this round. After that, without a few months of consolidation, if it surges upward again, it will also be the best time for you to exit.
4. Let’s talk about trading: a few days of consecutive profits, and yesterday there was a pullback. I feel that the first 30 minutes after I open a trade are actually very hard to control. Going forward, you should still focus on exploring and researching your mindset in the first 20 minutes before you open the order, and then find a correct way to handle it. Deleveraging and having stop-loss amounts set within my reasonable psychological expectations are extremely important. They can almost determine whether I can respond to the coming volatility with a rational mindset. The losses yesterday caused by going long storage were also because the rebound strength of storage was still too weak. When big money comes, there must be a flagship, big bullish candle. If it’s mainly small funds participating in the game, wait until the time is right, then add position and trade the upside. $SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX #韩国限制杠杆ETF交易
It feels like today, whether it’s X or the square or even the planets, everything is especially lively—whether it’s people arguing or debating. The “buy at dig” versus “sell at Halfway Hill” talk is particularly exciting.
Why is it that in a more fearful market, more people come out shouting?
Either they shout about how awesome their bearish stance is, or they shout about how their long-term bullish view means they’re holding semiconductors to keep their conviction unchanged. Or they’re just annoyed by some little troublemaker and then act like an absolute idiot while trying to flaunt their “real strength.”
In short, today is very lively.
After all the commotion, things will eventually return to calm.
I hope calm comes sooner.
Because the bear market hasn’t reached the end yet.
Keep it up, guys on the way to making money and the guys who are already making money.
$DOGE
#长鑫科技IPO定价8.66元估值5791亿元
Why is it that in a more fearful market, more people come out shouting?
Either they shout about how awesome their bearish stance is, or they shout about how their long-term bullish view means they’re holding semiconductors to keep their conviction unchanged. Or they’re just annoyed by some little troublemaker and then act like an absolute idiot while trying to flaunt their “real strength.”
In short, today is very lively.
After all the commotion, things will eventually return to calm.
I hope calm comes sooner.
Because the bear market hasn’t reached the end yet.
Keep it up, guys on the way to making money and the guys who are already making money.
$DOGE
#长鑫科技IPO定价8.66元估值5791亿元
疯狂的Jerrick
·
--
BearishI really didn’t sleep well all night. On one side, China’s storage IPO is rewriting the “ceiling” of single-stock market value in A-shares. On the other side, there are all kinds of plunges in US storage industry stocks.
From SpaceX to the huge pullback in the storage sector (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk—either they fell hard or crashed), this year’s US mega-IPO “miracle” story is gradually cooling off.
And Chinese companies, represented by ChangXin (CXMT), have risen with a force that’s overwhelming.
As AI semiconductor valuations pull back and investors take profits, overvalued assets begin to accept the market’s repricing again.
Musk’s net worth evaporated by $130 billion in just five days, which also reflects that the capital market’s risk appetite for the “AI narrative” is cooling.
And then, within the crypto world, a doge coin that’s related to Musk suddenly caught my eye.
Looking across this round of the mega pullback, doge is actually still in a downtrend that isn’t even moving slowly—meaning that although spcx and tesla have both recently fallen by a lot, doge hasn’t dropped much at all.
This is what I find unusual.
I think either the crypto market hasn’t reacted yet, or doge has its own positive catalysts— or maybe it has gradually started to break free from being trapped in the “Musk” IP. But doge’s narrative has always followed the memes and expressions of the old man. When Musk’s wealth falls, it will inevitably—still—affect doge’s future direction.
So at around 2 a.m. last night, I got up and opened a short position on doge, using all the remaining funds I had.
I think in this round of pullback, #doge won’t be absent—it will just be late.
#美国存储股扩大跌幅 $DOGE
From SpaceX to the huge pullback in the storage sector (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk—either they fell hard or crashed), this year’s US mega-IPO “miracle” story is gradually cooling off.
And Chinese companies, represented by ChangXin (CXMT), have risen with a force that’s overwhelming.
As AI semiconductor valuations pull back and investors take profits, overvalued assets begin to accept the market’s repricing again.
Musk’s net worth evaporated by $130 billion in just five days, which also reflects that the capital market’s risk appetite for the “AI narrative” is cooling.
And then, within the crypto world, a doge coin that’s related to Musk suddenly caught my eye.
Looking across this round of the mega pullback, doge is actually still in a downtrend that isn’t even moving slowly—meaning that although spcx and tesla have both recently fallen by a lot, doge hasn’t dropped much at all.
This is what I find unusual.
I think either the crypto market hasn’t reacted yet, or doge has its own positive catalysts— or maybe it has gradually started to break free from being trapped in the “Musk” IP. But doge’s narrative has always followed the memes and expressions of the old man. When Musk’s wealth falls, it will inevitably—still—affect doge’s future direction.
So at around 2 a.m. last night, I got up and opened a short position on doge, using all the remaining funds I had.
I think in this round of pullback, #doge won’t be absent—it will just be late.
#美国存储股扩大跌幅 $DOGE
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