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#美联储加息分歧加深 Focus of Divergence and the Current Situation • Baseline scenario: On July 29, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% (a 9-to-3 vote). This marked the fifth consecutive meeting with no policy change. • Hawkish camp (arguing for rate hikes): Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas), and Hammack (Cleveland) voted against the decision, calling for a 25bp rate increase. After the meeting, Cook (Governor), Schmid (Kansas City), and Musalem (St. Louis) all said in succession, "Be prepared to raise rates if inflation does not come down." Kashkari said, "It is not impossible to raise rates three times before year-end." His logic is that consumption, employment, and corporate earnings remain resilient; current policy is not restrictive enough. He argues that making small hikes earlier can help avoid having to slam the brakes later. • Dovish / wait-and-see camp (arguing to hold rates): Williams (New York), Boulson (Philadelphia), Daly (San Francisco), and others believe that a month-over-month decline in inflation is worth watching, but patience is being consumed. Chair Worsh herself downplayed forward guidance, not committing to a specific path. Media reports suggest that if inflation runs hot over the coming weeks and market-implied rate-hike expectations rise, she could turn hawkish in September. • Underlying contradiction: U.S. inflation has not reached the 2% target for five straight years (latest around 3.5%, core estimated at 2.4%–2.8%). On top of that, energy, tariffs, and AI-related investment demand are pushing prices higher. The hawks worry about "inflation becoming entrenched," while the doves worry about "harming the jobs market that is still cooling." Why this piece of news matters • Price-setting reshuffle: Interest-rate futures lowered the probability of a September hike from >50% to about 40%, but "at least one hike within the year" has already been partly priced in. Sensitivity of short-end Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index to inflation data is increasing. • Signaling impact: The three dissenting votes are the first under Chairman Worsh after taking office in May, breaking the "unanimous pause" narrative. It indicates the FOMC is not monolithic. Therefore, later communications—especially the wording in the statement and the dot plot—are more likely to show divisions. • Key window: The late-August Jackson Hole symposium + the September 16 FOMC meeting (with the dot plot and economic projections) are the litmus test for whether the disagreement translates into actual rate hikes. In the meantime, attention will be on the three-data run: CPI, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls. In short: It’s not that the Fed has "decided to hike and there is internal dissent." Instead, it’s that "the Fed hasn’t hiked yet, but there are so many supporters of hikes that three dissenting votes were cast—and the number of such supporters is still growing." This is a hawkish repricing at the expectations level, not a settled fact.

#美联储加息分歧加深

Focus of Divergence and the Current Situation

• Baseline scenario: On July 29, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% (a 9-to-3 vote). This marked the fifth consecutive meeting with no policy change.

• Hawkish camp (arguing for rate hikes): Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas), and Hammack (Cleveland) voted against the decision, calling for a 25bp rate increase. After the meeting, Cook (Governor), Schmid (Kansas City), and Musalem (St. Louis) all said in succession, "Be prepared to raise rates if inflation does not come down." Kashkari said, "It is not impossible to raise rates three times before year-end." His logic is that consumption, employment, and corporate earnings remain resilient; current policy is not restrictive enough. He argues that making small hikes earlier can help avoid having to slam the brakes later.

• Dovish / wait-and-see camp (arguing to hold rates): Williams (New York), Boulson (Philadelphia), Daly (San Francisco), and others believe that a month-over-month decline in inflation is worth watching, but patience is being consumed. Chair Worsh herself downplayed forward guidance, not committing to a specific path. Media reports suggest that if inflation runs hot over the coming weeks and market-implied rate-hike expectations rise, she could turn hawkish in September.

• Underlying contradiction: U.S. inflation has not reached the 2% target for five straight years (latest around 3.5%, core estimated at 2.4%–2.8%). On top of that, energy, tariffs, and AI-related investment demand are pushing prices higher. The hawks worry about "inflation becoming entrenched," while the doves worry about "harming the jobs market that is still cooling."

Why this piece of news matters

• Price-setting reshuffle: Interest-rate futures lowered the probability of a September hike from >50% to about 40%, but "at least one hike within the year" has already been partly priced in. Sensitivity of short-end Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index to inflation data is increasing.

• Signaling impact: The three dissenting votes are the first under Chairman Worsh after taking office in May, breaking the "unanimous pause" narrative. It indicates the FOMC is not monolithic. Therefore, later communications—especially the wording in the statement and the dot plot—are more likely to show divisions.

• Key window: The late-August Jackson Hole symposium + the September 16 FOMC meeting (with the dot plot and economic projections) are the litmus test for whether the disagreement translates into actual rate hikes. In the meantime, attention will be on the three-data run: CPI, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls.

In short: It’s not that the Fed has "decided to hike and there is internal dissent." Instead, it’s that "the Fed hasn’t hiked yet, but there are so many supporters of hikes that three dissenting votes were cast—and the number of such supporters is still growing." This is a hawkish repricing at the expectations level, not a settled fact.

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