暗流追踪
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暗流追踪
HFD.FUND 用数据，掌控趋势
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Summary:
Building on the previous section, after the shakeout, continue by inserting a new high.
Price projection:
First, fall below the area around 78560. After encountering support at 78540, rebound. Then fluctuate between 78540 and 79270. Afterwards, break above 80370 and 81300. The highest possible outcome is a quick spike (pin) up to 81593, followed by a pullback.
Previous projection:
Consolidate between 76327 and 78729. After a small-range rise breaks through 77290, the high could reach 77688.
Note: If 77688 holds, the target is 79659, even up to 80371.
Actual price movement:
After 77688 held, it immediately broke through 79659, and the high reached 80000.
Overall analysis:
There is a gap in positioning, with near-term consolidation. Consolidation may fall below 78596, and then break upward through 80337.
Price channel & long-term moving averages:
The long-term moving averages rise to 78540, acting as support. Price fluctuates between 78540 and 79270 and is still in a strong phase.
Limit-order absorption:
After breaking down around 78560, price will rebound. It may eventually break through 80371, with the pin reaching the 81300–83000 zone.
Volume/Price order blocks:
The appeal of the latest resting orders may attract price toward the 81593 area.
Building on the previous section, after the shakeout, continue by inserting a new high.
Price projection:
First, fall below the area around 78560. After encountering support at 78540, rebound. Then fluctuate between 78540 and 79270. Afterwards, break above 80370 and 81300. The highest possible outcome is a quick spike (pin) up to 81593, followed by a pullback.
Previous projection:
Consolidate between 76327 and 78729. After a small-range rise breaks through 77290, the high could reach 77688.
Note: If 77688 holds, the target is 79659, even up to 80371.
Actual price movement:
After 77688 held, it immediately broke through 79659, and the high reached 80000.
Overall analysis:
There is a gap in positioning, with near-term consolidation. Consolidation may fall below 78596, and then break upward through 80337.
Price channel & long-term moving averages:
The long-term moving averages rise to 78540, acting as support. Price fluctuates between 78540 and 79270 and is still in a strong phase.
Limit-order absorption:
After breaking down around 78560, price will rebound. It may eventually break through 80371, with the pin reaching the 81300–83000 zone.
Volume/Price order blocks:
The appeal of the latest resting orders may attract price toward the 81593 area.
Summary:
Continuing from the previous section: the earlier-mentioned range has already been breached. As a result, the current downtrend is likely to continue with further selling.
Next price projection:
After a period of consolidation, the price will keep falling. The first target is to break through the area around 62661, and then move to 62500 to find support.
Previous projection:
Because of the influence of the short-term bulls, the price may rebound as high as around 64430. When it meets resistance, it will drop again and then consolidate in the range of 63700–64000.
Actual price movement:
The price reached a high of 64486, then kept falling. It is currently consolidating between 63300 and 64000.
Next price movement:
Positioning vacuum
All the latest short-term bullish advances have been filled. Above in history, there were bearish advances; for now, we expect the ongoing bearish advance trend within consolidation.
The medium-term bearish advance trend is still present, but the entire attack defense line has been filled. The outlook is bearish, but we will first see consolidation.
The long-term historical bullish advance has been filled. The bullish trend appears to be over, and there is no latest bearish advance trend. So we expect consolidation.
Overall, the price is fluctuating up and down significantly. Once there is a clear attacking side, it will likely be filled. But overall, the trend remains down while consolidating.
Price channel
For the same amount of short-term average: 63490; upper limit 69370; lower limit 58260.
For the same amount of medium-term average: 63370; upper limit 66810; lower limit 58260.
For the same amount of long-term average: 70020; upper limit 93760; lower limit 59160.
The most direct way to interpret this indicator is that the average price continues to decline. The current price is still hovering near the average, which suggests the price is currently at a market’s natural fluctuation level and matches the institutions’ expected value.
Support is provided by 63370–63490. As that support keeps moving down, it also indicates a downward trend. However, the institution’s average price can still hold the price, meaning there is no obvious deviation in the market.
For the same-time short-term average: 64370; upper limit 66810; lower limit 62310.
For the same-time medium-term average: 64200; upper limit 66810; lower limit 61750.
For the same-time long-term average: 64050; upper limit 65200; lower limit 62500.
Based on this indicator, the current price is below the average price—so it is in a downward trend. But the lower limit is very close, because the moving averages have lost their support. Therefore, with the downtrend, it will seek support around 62500.
Based on these two indicators, the price is already below the “same-time average.” The outlook is that it may drop toward around 62000 to find support. But since the same-quantity average line keeps moving down, it provides support to the price—so the decline may not be smooth.
Continuing from the previous section: the earlier-mentioned range has already been breached. As a result, the current downtrend is likely to continue with further selling.
Next price projection:
After a period of consolidation, the price will keep falling. The first target is to break through the area around 62661, and then move to 62500 to find support.
Previous projection:
Because of the influence of the short-term bulls, the price may rebound as high as around 64430. When it meets resistance, it will drop again and then consolidate in the range of 63700–64000.
Actual price movement:
The price reached a high of 64486, then kept falling. It is currently consolidating between 63300 and 64000.
Next price movement:
Positioning vacuum
All the latest short-term bullish advances have been filled. Above in history, there were bearish advances; for now, we expect the ongoing bearish advance trend within consolidation.
The medium-term bearish advance trend is still present, but the entire attack defense line has been filled. The outlook is bearish, but we will first see consolidation.
The long-term historical bullish advance has been filled. The bullish trend appears to be over, and there is no latest bearish advance trend. So we expect consolidation.
Overall, the price is fluctuating up and down significantly. Once there is a clear attacking side, it will likely be filled. But overall, the trend remains down while consolidating.
Price channel
For the same amount of short-term average: 63490; upper limit 69370; lower limit 58260.
For the same amount of medium-term average: 63370; upper limit 66810; lower limit 58260.
For the same amount of long-term average: 70020; upper limit 93760; lower limit 59160.
The most direct way to interpret this indicator is that the average price continues to decline. The current price is still hovering near the average, which suggests the price is currently at a market’s natural fluctuation level and matches the institutions’ expected value.
Support is provided by 63370–63490. As that support keeps moving down, it also indicates a downward trend. However, the institution’s average price can still hold the price, meaning there is no obvious deviation in the market.
For the same-time short-term average: 64370; upper limit 66810; lower limit 62310.
For the same-time medium-term average: 64200; upper limit 66810; lower limit 61750.
For the same-time long-term average: 64050; upper limit 65200; lower limit 62500.
Based on this indicator, the current price is below the average price—so it is in a downward trend. But the lower limit is very close, because the moving averages have lost their support. Therefore, with the downtrend, it will seek support around 62500.
Based on these two indicators, the price is already below the “same-time average.” The outlook is that it may drop toward around 62000 to find support. But since the same-quantity average line keeps moving down, it provides support to the price—so the decline may not be smooth.
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