IMPORTANT #BITCOIN REBOUNDED FROM A FLOOR THAT ALREADY MARKED THE START OF TWO BULLISH MARKETS AND HAS ALREADY GAINED MORE THAN 40% FROM THAT POINT. What is the RSI of #Bitcoin saying? The RSI measures price strength from 0 to 100: above 70, euphoria; near 40, selling exhaustion. When it bounces from that 40 zone and goes back above 50, the sellers run out of strength. It happened in 2019 and in 2022-2023. And now it’s repeating: 2019: #Bitcoin made a bottom near $3,500. In 2021 it surpassed $60,000. 2022: made a bottom near $16,000. In 2025 it marked its all-time high, above $126,000. 2026: made a bottom near $60,000 and today it’s trading around $86,000.
THE CALMEST MARKET IN THE WORLD IS GETTING NERVOUS
👀 And the last times this happened, something broke. (2008, 2020, and 2023)
What’s happening with U.S. bonds?⁉️
🎯 The MOVE index measures how much U.S. Treasury bond yields are moving. It’s like the “fear index” (VIX), but for bonds. 🎯 Treasury bonds are the foundation of everything: they’re used to calculate mortgages, business loans, and the government’s cost of debt.
🚨 The MOVE jumped 33% in two days and surpassed 104 points—its highest level since March. ▪️ In the week, it rose as it hadn’t since April 2025, when Trump rolled out tariffs. ▪️ The 10-year bond hit 5.17%, its highest level since 2007. ▪️ The 30-year bond topped 5.50% for the first time since 2004.
🧨 Previous times: ▪️ 2008: global financial crisis ▪️ 2020: panic from COVID ▪️ 2023: Silicon Valley Bank collapse and other regional banks
Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase. We don't see aggressive growth or a strong drop; the price is moving fairly calmly.
⚫️Every time a bearish impulse appears, buyers enter quickly and manage to hold the key levels.
From the current levels, I don't expect an immediate breakout. Most likely, we'll see another pullback toward the support zone. After the retest, I'll start looking for medium-term LONG positions, with targets toward a new high
For now, BTC is holding support around $83K and has even managed to bounce a bit, but the market’s cooling is already starting to show—especially in the altcoins and in the ETF inflows
📊 After almost a month of growth, a pause or even a deeper correction would be pretty logical. But the market usually does things its own way 🤟 So we’ll see what it has in store for us, especially heading into October
⏺Regarding the next macro data, tomorrow we’ll have the PCE and the final estimate of the US GDP. These data could give the market a fresh push, so we’ll need to watch the price reaction
For now, there aren’t any major changes to the bigger picture. Some altcoins are still showing plenty of strength even within the current range
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Buyers still hold the key zones, but momentum has weakened: the market is building up strength before the next directional move.
💰 BTC: It is testing the $78,200-$78,600 zone. This is an important mirror level: holding this zone preserves the bullish structure and offers the possibility of a reversal back above $79,500-$80,000. If it breaks below $78,200, a correction toward $77,000 is possible.
💰 ETH: It looks stronger and continues compressing into a tight range above $2,480. Key support is formed at $2,440-$2,470. Resistance is in the $2,520-$2,550 area; a breakout there would pave the way for an impulse toward $2,600.
🎯 The main priority is to watch the reaction from local supports. We only look for longs with confirmation of the defense of the levels ($78,200-$78,500 on BTC and $2,450-$2,470 on ETH).
KEY WEEK: THE DATA THAT WILL DECIDE WHETHER THE FED KEEPS RAISING RATES
👀 With the 10-year bond at 5.18% and a 70% chance of a hike in October, every data point matters.
What should you watch this week⁉️
👉 On Monday: Bank of Japan meeting minutes ▪️ If they confirm they won’t raise the rate, the risk of the carry trade decreases, which is positive for financial markets.
👉 On Wednesday: PCE inflation and Q2 GDP ▪️ PCE is the FED’s favorite inflation measure: in July, headline came in at 3.7% and core at 3.3%. ▪️ A PCE lower than expected would be positive for financial markets, since it reduces the chances that the FED will raise rates ▪️ Strong GDP would give the FED more room to keep raising
👉 On Friday: the September employment report ▪️ A strong labor market strengthens the case for more rate hikes, which would be negative for financial markets
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