大头睡不醒

On August 1, according to Farside Investors monitoring, Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net inflows of $172.8 million in July. The main inflows in July came from IBIT ($227.6 million) and Grayscale BTC ($294.6 million), while Grayscale GBTC (-$360.4 million) and Fidelity FBTC (-$209.5 million) experienced significant outflows. In addition, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $61.5 million last week.

Google has started rolling out Gemini Spark to Google AI Pro users outside the United States. Spark is a personal AI agent that can run in the background 24/7, capable of handling heavy-duty tasks according to user instructions. According to a tested account, TestingCatalog revealed that the product’s next major upgrade will support true MCP (Model Context Protocol), and related features are currently in development.

Friends, this account will start streaming again today. A 15-minute line—go back and forth and eat.

Every day I want to short, but every day I haven't.

#Drift称攻击事件疑为朝鲜黑客策划
This wave of increase has not ended; during this period, short positions should be closed promptly;
Where is all this new issuance of USDC preparing to go over the past week?
The weekly level has reached the end of consolidation, and I am still optimistic about the rebound in the second quarter;

$BTC

The big pancake is exhausting.

Will cryptocurrency be about to disrupt the landscape again?

Bitcoin surged 2.3% overnight, briefly approaching $92,400 before pulling back, while privacy coins stole the spotlight. Market momentum remains unpredictable, leaving traders constantly checking charts, following rumors, and monitoring social media updates.

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As Pepe's price consolidates around $0.0000050 to $0.0000060 and Dogecoin hovers near $0.1373, Apeing provides early access for those ready to act swiftly. For crypto enthusiasts, finance students, and blockchain developers, understanding how these tokens interact with market sentiment may determine which coins become breakthrough innovations by 2026.

Is it a bull market breakout or a deeper correction?

Volatility compression signals an impending market turning point

Axel Adler's recent analysis highlights a key shift in the Bitcoin market structure: realized volatility has narrowed to 23.6%, approaching the lower end of this cycle's historical range. This decline in volatility does not indicate a directional market signal but reflects a temporary loss of momentum, with reduced price swings and weaker pulse intensity. Such conditions rarely persist for long in previous cycles.

From a structural perspective, this environment suggests Bitcoin is in a typical compression phase. As volatility contracts, underlying imbalances between supply and demand often accumulate in the background. When these imbalances reach a critical point, prices typically shift abruptly from a consolidation phase to an expansion phase.

The 30-day high-low range of Bitcoin further supports this view. The gap between recent rolling highs and lows has continued to narrow, confirming that prices are now oscillating within an increasingly tight range. Both intraday and multi-day volatility have diminished, with neither buyers nor sellers able to maintain control of the market.

Historically, breaking out of such a narrow range often attracts algorithmic trading and trend-following capital. Once the price breaks out of the range, subsequent movements tend to be stronger. While this pattern does not guarantee a rise or fall in price, it does indicate that the likelihood of a decisive move is increasing. As volatility and range indicators align, Bitcoin appears to be approaching a critical juncture, with the consolidation phase poised to end and a new directional move on the horizon.

XRP price attempts recovery

XRP price failed to hold above $2.20 and, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, began another round of decline. The price broke below $2.150 and $2.120, entering a short-term bearish zone.

The price even dipped below $2.050. After forming a low around $2.034, the price is currently attempting a rebound. The price briefly broke above $2.080 but remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $2.415 high to the $2.034 low.

Currently, the price is below $2.120 and the 100-hour simple moving average. If a new rally emerges, resistance may appear around $2.10. Additionally, on the XRP/USD hourly chart, a key descending trendline is forming, with resistance near $2.10.

The first major resistance level is near $2.120. If the price closes above $2.120, it could rise further to $2.220, or reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $2.415 high to the $2.034 low.

The next resistance level is at $2.320. If the price effectively breaks above the $2.320 resistance, it could rise further to the $2.350 resistance level. If the price continues to rise, it might extend toward the $2.3850 resistance level. The next major resistance for bulls could be near $2.40.

Today, Dogecoin's price traded around $0.1394, following the announcement of a strategic partnership among House of Doge, abc Co., Ltd., and ReYuu Japan, aimed at expanding Dogecoin's ecosystem in Japan. This fundamental catalyst aligns with a bullish divergence signal on the daily chart, the fifth such occurrence since August, suggesting that technical indicators and market sentiment may be converging, potentially signaling a price rebound.

Fifth bullish divergence signal since August

The daily chart shows a bullish signal from the RSI divergence indicator at 51.66, marking the fifth instance since August. Previous similar signals in early September, mid-October, late November, mid-December, and early January all preceded subsequent price increases of 15% to 30%.

This indicator identifies situations where price makes new lows while RSI makes new highs, indicating that although downward pressure persists, selling momentum is weakening. Such divergence typically signals a potential price reversal, as weak sellers retreat and buyers step in at support levels.

The 30-minute chart shows Dogecoin holding the super trend support level at $0.1386, which also served as the bottom during recent consolidation. The price is currently testing the downward channel resistance near $0.1400.

The Parabolic SAR reading is $0.1401, slightly above the current price. If the closing price exceeds this level, the indicator will turn bullish on the short-term timeframe, confirming that buyers are actively defending the structure rather than merely providing temporary support.

"Long Trap"?

After a strong upward move following the January opening, Bitcoin has risen for five consecutive days, rebounding over 13% from its December low. Although the price has broken above the downward trend since November, it still remains confined within the December opening range.

As long as the price is still suppressed below the range's resistance, the overall structure suggests that long positions remain relatively vulnerable. The current focus shifts to: will this rally evolve into a sustained breakout, or will it ultimately be proven a "long trap," paving the way for renewed downward pressure? The battle lines on Bitcoin/USD's technical chart have now been drawn.

In fact, Bitcoin is still trading below key technical resistance while the December opening range remains intact—watching the breakout direction will provide guidance. From a trading perspective, if the price continues to lean downward during this phase, any rebound should be capped around 94,236.

Bitcoin faces pressure and tests the 90,000 support level; is this rebound a 'bull trap'?

On Thursday (January 8), during the Asian session, Bitcoin attempted to hold the 91,000 USD mark after a sharp drop the previous day. Analysts believe this correction in the virtual asset market is a short-term adjustment following a rapid price surge. Since the beginning of the year, virtual asset prices have risen sharply in a short period, triggering a wave of profit-taking sell-offs that pushed the market downward.

According to data from the global cryptocurrency market tracking platform CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin fell over 2% yesterday, dipping as low as 90,629 USD during the session.

The CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies, dropped nearly 4% during the same period, with XRP leading the decline, falling over 8%. Ethereum dropped 3.6%, despite major Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley announcing it would offer a spot Ethereum ETF, which failed to provide a price boost.

This crypto sell-off occurred as the Nasdaq index rose 0.5%; meanwhile, precious metals, which had seen strong gains earlier, reversed course—gold fell 1%, and silver dropped 5%.

Stocks related to 'Digital Asset Treasury' (DAT) did not strengthen noticeably despite MSCI's announcement Tuesday evening that it would 'temporarily not exclude Strategy (MSTR) from its index'.

Strategy performed relatively well, rising 1%, but most other stocks in the sector declined: Bitmine Immersion fell 6%, Sharplink Gaming dropped 2%, and XXI declined 5%.

Looking at the weekly chart, the ratio between MSTR and iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has rebounded near the 3 level for the second consecutive week, currently standing at approximately 3.11. In March 2024, this ratio found support near 3, then rose steadily to a peak of 9.5 in November 2024, coinciding with MSTR's all-time high stock price. Bulls will closely watch whether the 3 level can continue to serve as a support.

Strong start, following a somewhat rocky beginning, Bitcoin ETFs are entering 2026 with strong momentum, with expected net inflows reaching $1.2 billion, signaling a significant shift in institutional dynamics.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown remarkable growth momentum at the beginning of 2026, indicating a notable change in institutional demand for Bitcoin. In just the first two trading days of the new year, these funds attracted over $1.2 billion in net inflows. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the Bitcoin ETFs' start to the year as "lion-like."

At the current growth rate, annual net inflows could reach $150 billion, nearly a 600% increase compared to the total in 2025.

Bitcoin prices rebounded after the sharp volatility at the end of 2025, when prices dropped significantly due to insufficient liquidity and end-of-year position pressure. Now, this pressure has eased. On Monday alone, Bitcoin saw net inflows of $697 million, marking the highest single-day figure in three months, and the price has once again stabilized above $90,000.

Almost all ETFs experienced net inflows, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading again, further solidifying its leadership position in the sector.

For reference, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $21.4 billion in net inflows in 2025, below the $35.2 billion in 2024. The explosive growth in 2026 indicates renewed market confidence, not short-term speculation.

Bitcoin weekly chart closely monitors new target

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has returned to the upper boundary of the multi-month price range and, for the first time in nearly a month, retested the $94,000 level. Since the correction at the end of November, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, having dropped to an eight-month low of $80,600 at that time.

During this period, Bitcoin's weekly chart has been fluctuating within the $86,200 to $93,500 range, encountering strong resistance near the midpoint of the range. However, last week, Bitcoin successfully closed above the $90,500 resistance level, moving closer to the key upper boundary.

Analyst Rekt Capital emphasized that the $93,500 area is a critical level for Bitcoin's future price movement and noted that Bitcoin has failed to break through the $93,500 zone for most of the fourth quarter.

Now, the price is once again challenging this level, "which is not only the upper resistance of the weekly range but also a confluence resistance level that has been troubling prices since mid-October 2025, forming a multi-week downtrend."

Rekt Capital pointed out that because the price has closed below this level for the past 12 months, this level is likely to act as a macro resistance. "In a four-year cycle, such resistance levels typically hinder price increases for about three years before being broken during a halving year," he explained.

He added that if Bitcoin has already entered a bear market, "this means the price may break through $93,500 in the coming months to confirm the macro low, before continuing to decline." Therefore, Bitcoin is unlikely to return to this level until the next halving year in 2028.

Support is found between $90,850 and $92,900

The Bitcoin correction found support between $90,850 and $92,900, a zone that has been crucial over the past week.

After briefly touching the lower end of this range, the price rebounded, further confirming that bulls are still defending the trend. Analysts state that maintaining price above this zone is critical to preserving the short-term bullish outlook.

So far, price action within this range has been as expected, with no signs of panic selling.

The resistance level at $94,780 may signal the next upward move.

On the positive side, experts are closely watching $94,780, the recent high for the week. If Bitcoin's price effectively breaks above this level, it could confirm the arrival of the next upward move.

If this occurs, analysts believe potential upside targets are around $97,000 (a retracement level) and $98,400.

10X Research says Bitcoin has entered a 'bull market trend'

On Sunday, 10X Research pointed out that technical indicators show 'Bitcoin has entered a bull market trend'.

The cryptocurrency declined in December and has now fallen for the third consecutive month — a situation that has only occurred 15 times in history, often setting the stage for Bitcoin's rise in January.

Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, said late Monday: 'The opportunity for a tactical rebound is high.'

Farrell believes that the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, along with a decline in the Treasury General Account (TGA), which is similar to the U.S. government's checking account, are both positive signals for Bitcoin.

Farrell said: 'We are seeing improvements in liquidity, improvements in capital flows, and finally, several days of relative outperformance compared to the stock market.'

The strategist believes that under certain scenarios, Bitcoin could test the range of $105,000 to $106,000; however, his base case remains that prices may experience a significant pullback in the first half of the year, followed by a steady rebound through the end of 2026.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has increased by over 16% in the past week, and the current trading price is $0.147. Despite a slight drop of 3% over the past 24 hours, the price remains above last week's low of $0.117. The daily trading volume reached $1.83 billion, indicating strong market interest in this "meme coin," which has also been boosted by other tokens like SHIB and PEPE.

This classic meme coin once touched a local high of over $0.15 before pulling back slightly. The current price is approaching resistance levels, and traders are closely monitoring for subsequent trends or signs of a pullback.

The pattern indicates the beginning of a recovery phase.

The three-month chart of Dogecoin provided by trader Tardigrade shows that this cycle has occurred twice since 2021. Each complete cycle follows the same pattern: five quarters of decline, followed by five quarters of recovery, and finally four quarters of growth. The recent downtrend seems to have ended by the end of 2025.

Based on the trajectory of past cycles, the current candlestick formation suggests the potential beginning of a recovery. This formation indicates that the recovery could last several quarters and may initiate the next uptrend phase at some point in 2027. Tardigrade wrote:

"Dogecoin ($DOGE) may be entering a recovery phase and is preparing for an upward trend."