梧桐Pro

#清晰法案
#重点关注
August begins and the first week is already a knockout opening!
The pending clear bill only has five days left to be voted on!
And the unemployment rate in July as well as the July non-farm data will be released this week!

First, before the Senate recesses on August 7, there are five working days to pass the Clarity Act,
Senator Lummis says that she still plans to hold a vote before the recess.
The latest seat distribution for the 119th Congress is as follows, with the specific breakdown of the proportions among the two parties and independents:
Republicans: 53 seats
Democrats: 45 seats
Nonpartisan independent members: 2 seats
The Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, but they need 60 votes to pass this—meaning at least 7 Democrats must support it.
The probability of the bill passing has dropped from above 80% in February to about 30%.

This week, keep an eye on the data releases that could affect the probability of rate hikes:
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 20:15
[U.S. July ADP Employment]★★★★

Thursday, August 6, 2026 20:30
[U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1]★★★★

Friday, August 7, 2026 20:30
[U.S. July Unemployment Rate]★★★★★
[U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls]★★★★★

$BTC
$ETH

#清晰法案
#美联储利率决议即将公布

Major events this week, with strong correlation to the direction of your positions—definitely worth paying attention to!
As July is about to end, major events are coming one after another. Each major event will determine the direction of the crypto market, so be sure to watch them!

1. On July 27, according to CoinDesk, the Senate has released the latest consolidated text of the Digital Assets Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act). It integrates two versions of drafts from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, and for the first time includes an ethics provision—prohibiting senior government officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies.

From the timeline perspective: if the Senate puts forward a “motion to proceed” on Monday or Tuesday this week, and reaches consensus on the ethics provision by Thursday, July 30, the bill could still complete voting by August 7.

The crypto industry broadly supports the bill, believing it provides the necessary investor-protection framework. Multiple heads of organizations have publicly called on leaders from various departments to pass the bill immediately, to maintain the United States’ leadership in the crypto space.

At present, Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing within 2026 to 30%. The bill requires 60 votes to advance, meaning at least 7 Democratic lawmakers must cross party lines to support it.

2. Focus on the following

Thursday, July 30, 2026, this week
02:00
The Federal Reserve FOMC releases the interest rate decision.
02:30
Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference.
19:00
Bank of England—interest rate decision as of July 30
20:30
U.S.—Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 25
20:30
U.S. June Core PCE Price Index, year-over-year

Also, if you’re interested in U.S. stocks, you can take a look at:
July 29, 08:00
SK Hynix releases its Q2 earnings report.
July 30, 04:00
Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and ARM will release their 2026 Q2 earnings reports after the U.S. market close on July 29.
July 31, 04:00
Amazon and Apple will release their earnings reports after the U.S. market close on July 30.

$BTC
$ETH

#SHIB
#Dogecoin‬⁩
Is there still a rule of law? Is there still the law?
Is this really the flagship of a meme coin?
I really shouldn't have believed Musk—it's just talk, isn't it?
Whatever you do, don't go and learn from Trump!!!
Doge, don't let your fans down—don't let them walk away!
Weren't we supposed to go to the Moon, to Mars?!!!
Learn from Shib's growth—come on, you can do it!
$SHIB $DOGE

#CLARITY法案

Breaking News, Breaking News. Important Headline. According to multiple media reports:

Chuanzi has agreed to the moral clause in the “Clarity Act”!!

The Senate must vote no later than the first week of August!!

According to news reported by multiple media on 7.21:

U.S. President Trump has agreed to the moral clause in the “Clarity Act,” clearing the final major obstacle for advancing the senate vote on this digital-asset market-structure bill.

The clause is intended to restrict the president, vice president, members of Congress, and other federal officials from profiting from digital assets during their terms of office.

The text of the bill is expected to be published within the next few days. The Senate must vote no later than the first week of August. If passed, it will be sent back to the House for review, and then submitted to the president for signature.

$BTC $ETH

#美联储官员密集发声
#一周要闻
This week, new Federal Reserve Chair Wosch attends hearings at both the House and the Senate for two consecutive days.
Added to this, major CPI and PPI data are set to roll out.
With a flurry of comments from Fed officials—this is all about the probability of rate hikes. You can’t afford to miss these key time points!

Monday, July 13, 2026
17:25
Fed Governor Bowman delivers remarks on “modernizing financial supervision.”

WebX 2026 to be held in Tokyo, with the Japanese Prime Minister appearing via video.

Tuesday, July 14
00:30
Fed Governor Waller delivers remarks.

20:30
【U.S. June CPI data released】
Previous: 4.20% Forecast: 3.8%

22:00
Fed Chair Wosch attends the House Financial Services Committee hearing on the “Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.”

Wednesday, July 15
00:40
Fed Governor Barr delivers remarks at the Fed’s annual Financial Inclusion event on AI.
01:00
2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat.
01:30
Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers remarks at the Fed’s annual Financial Inclusion event.
02:55
Fed Governor Bowman delivers remarks at the Fed’s annual Financial Inclusion event.
20:30
【U.S. June PPI data】
Previous: 6.50% Forecast: 6.2%
20:45
Permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers remarks.
22:00
Fed Chair Wosch attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the “Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.”

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) issues its first biweekly dividend distribution.

Thursday, July 16
01:00
Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers remarks on the economic outlook.
02:00
The Fed releases its Beige Book on economic conditions.
06:30
2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivers remarks.
20:30
U.S. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11
Previous: 21.5 Forecast: 21.8

Friday, July 17, 2026
00:30
2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers remarks.
01:25
2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivers remarks.
07:00
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson delivers remarks on the economy and monetary policy.
17:00
Eurozone June CPI data

U.S. NCUA deadline for the request for public comment on standards regarding stablecoin issuance institutions.

The House holds a special hearing on the “CLARITY Act.”

#经济数据
#BTC跌破六万

The seventh month is about to turn around after a cycle of adversity—brand-new July begins again!

At the start of July, a major move may be on the way!

Since last year, the big coin has been drifting downward for five months in a row, then saw two months of rebound—good times didn’t last, and it has since dropped for another two months consecutively!

What kind of performance will July bring? From the overall market “square,” I don’t really have much to look forward to.

In July, the likelihood of further rate hikes is probably not high, and the current probability of the《CLARITE Act》passing is also not great.

The good news is that the EU’s MiCA framework under the Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets will fully take effect on July 1—doesn’t that also suggest that regulatory compliance is getting one step closer?

If the bill in the “beautiful country” gets passed via a vote, would that also be a positive catalyst?

Right now, the probability that the Fed hikes rates in September is 80%. If expectations for a rate hike decline, would that count as a positive move?

We can’t predict the future—we can only walk forward and watch. The data released on July 1st and 2nd should also have a significant impact on the market, right?
$BTC

#BTC信仰充值
#预祝法案七月份通过
Who else？？ Who else？？？

With such an old position, I guess there’s probably nobody else left, right？？

This is the position of someone who carries the order— is it the power of belief, or the perseverance in hoping for the future？？？
$BTC $ETH

#比特币跌破彩虹图下限 #比特币跌破200周均线

Bitcoin has recently faced a serious price correction, dipping below $60k and continuing to probe lower past $59k!

From my personal analysis, how low can BTC's future price go?

The square is filled with lamentations, with people adamantly calling for $43k while prices keep creeping down. Those worried about MicroStrategy's position are a dime a dozen! Meanwhile, Saylor isn't sweating it; he’s got enough cash reserves to weather the storm. Why are you all stressing?

Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow has stated he’s unfazed by the market sell-off, believing Bitcoin's fundamentals remain unchanged, viewing it as a "neutral, permissionless store of value."

Mow pointed out that the market is overlooking the impending massive buy order from Adam Back's Bitcoin Standard Hashrate Token (BSTR), expected to purchase up to 25,400 bitcoins, which will increase their holdings to over 55,000.

While Binance saw an influx of $479 million in BTC, at the same time, Coinbase Pro experienced an outflow of 1,168 BTC in just 24 hours! Panic sellers are dumping their bags while believers are quietly accumulating.

If we were to take a historical view, the last wave dipped from $69k to around $15k! That previous drop from around $130k to $30k seems plausible if you do the math!

However, each bear market has seen diminishing drops, which is undeniable! Adding to that, institutions like MicroStrategy and Bitmine are likely to hold their positions and not dump, so this bottom shouldn’t be too low.

The housing bill is stuck due to Mr. Not-So-Trustworthy! He directly stated that he would only sign the housing bill after Congress approves the "Rescue America Act."

Coupled with the upcoming votes on the July bill, midterm elections, and the fading expectations of three rate hikes predicted by Bank of America, along with Fed's Waller's policies likely to be clarified soon, these should all be considered bullish signals!

$BTC

#加密货币政策
#加密资产骗局

Is this really the scam market??
With all kinds of trash altcoins flying around, making ten, twenty, or even a hundred times gains, exchanges aren't listing spot trades, just contracts to bait aggressive traders. Meanwhile, the top fifty crypto assets with real applications are barely hanging on!

Is this what they call a bear market???

I have to admit, this low-level consolidation is testing everyone's patience! Maybe this is what a bear market looks like!
I remember back in late November 2022 when we hit that bottom of over 15,000, it took a year before we saw that top again!

Now, it's only been nine months since we reached nearly 130,000!
And last bear market, Bitcoin stayed below 30,000 for around 18 months!
This time, the drop below 60,000 has been minimal!

Every bear market is different, just like the hype and narratives during each bull run!
But history does have its similarities; highs keep getting higher and lows are consistently rising!

In the past two drops below 60,000, whether it was influencers or so-called well-known institutions, they all started shouting danger, saying things like we’ll drop below 30,000, and Ethereum below 800. If you’re so confident, why don’t you show your shorts and wait for your predicted price levels to take profit??

I honestly feel that we might not be at the true bottom yet, as I can’t predict any black swans or gray rhinos coming our way!
However, buying Ethereum at 1500 and Bitcoin below 60,000 still seems like a good move! After all, the risk of going down from here is far lower than the potential gains going up!

Honestly, my patience is running thin too, and writing this is just to reinforce my confidence, to help me hold on a bit longer through this waiting game…
$BTC

#op🔥🔥
#OP主网首次调整了交易排序规则
Once a major L2 network, OP has been quiet for a long time, but it's finally getting some positive news!

Without further ado, the first point is that they are starting an experiment to stake OP.

The Optimism OP mainnet has kicked off a four-week experiment, allowing users to stake at least 100,000 OP to boost their transaction priority. This is the first time its sorting mechanism deviates from purely gas fee sorting. According to the official announcement from Optimism, the OP mainnet has adjusted its transaction sorting rules for the first time, adding a staking-based priority track. Users can voluntarily participate in this four-week pilot, running until June 23.

The aim of this experiment is to test whether staking-based sorting can reduce harmful arbitrage flows, create new demand for OP, and provide more predictable block space guarantees for complex users.

The pilot is divided into two phases: in the first week, all addresses meeting the staking threshold will be treated equally under a strict first-come, first-served rule, while weeks two to four will switch to a priority multiplier mechanism based on staking duration. This experiment runs parallel to the existing priority gas auction system, and the transaction sorting for non-participating users remains unchanged.

The second point is that according to Binance, the daily unlock of OP is finally nearing completion, with an end date of May 31, 2026!

As a steadfast holder of OP, I’ve weathered the storm of coin-based spot liquidation when it was delisted, yet I haven't given up on my OP holdings, hoping for all holders to reap good rewards!!!
$OP

#夏令时
#提前一小时

Unknowingly, Daylight Saving Time in North America is about to begin!!

March 8, 2026, 15:00
Daylight Saving Time will start in North America, and the trading hours of financial markets in the United States and Canada, as well as the release times of economic data, will be one hour earlier than Standard Time.

In the future, macroeconomic data that needs to be released at 21:30 will also be one hour earlier!

The opening time of the US stock market will also be one hour earlier, opening for trading at 21:30! Similarly, pre-market trading will be moved up from 5:00 PM to 4:00 PM!!!

#美国伊朗对峙
#2月即将结束
It's another Friday, and the monthly close is approaching!
At the start of this month, I was still fantasizing about closing with a bullish candle, but that fantasy has been shattered, and I've managed to get through another month!

The US-Iran confrontation is about to start again, and countries are reminding their citizens to evacuate Iran!!!

It seems that the market is not dropping too much at the moment; I just hope there's not another wave over the weekend!!!

Historically, the maximum duration of consecutive declines is five months, and this time it has reached five consecutive months of decline. The last time there was a five-month drop, it was followed by a continuous rise. History doesn't repeat itself; we can only learn from it!

Currently, the market appears to be oscillating at a low level, and the duration is not yet sufficient. It has not even been a month since the lowest point on February 6th, but it feels like a change is imminent. I'm just not sure whether it will go up or down!!!

Those who are trapped have already been locked in; there is still more than 30% in positions left, and if it drops further, I'll have to go all in!

I hope to break free from the situation soon and achieve a little bit of gain!

#加密市场结构法案
#鲸鱼在持续积累
Last week, after experiencing a low liquidation of 60,000 US dollars, it has rebounded above 70,000. What kind of performance will the market show this week?

Firstly, tomorrow the White House may hold a meeting on Bitcoin and the structure of the cryptocurrency market, so we need to look at the latest progress!

Additionally, there will be data released this week,
especially on February 11 (Wednesday) at 21:30
【US January Unemployment Rate】
Previous value: 4.40% Expected: 4.40% Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★
【US January Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment】
Previous value: 5 Expected: 7 Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★

There is also relatively important data on February 13, 2026 (Friday) at 21:30
【US January Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year】
Previous value: 2.70% Expected: 2.50% Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★
【US January Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month】
Previous value: 0.30% Expected: 0.30% Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★☆

In fact, on February 6 recently, whale addresses flowed in 66,940 bitcoins, which is the largest single-day inflow in this cycle.

The Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin is currently in negative territory, currently at -10, the lowest level since March 2023, consistent with the characteristics of the end of a bear market, but it does not mean that the bear market is over.
Looking back at historical data, the Sharpe ratio fell to a low at the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023 and also at the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, both being troughs of bear market cycles. Analysts point out that a negative Sharpe ratio usually indicates that a market reversal is near.

There are large whales selling and cutting losses, while more capital continues to accumulate. The market is right here; it depends on your own understanding. I mentioned before that the current price-performance ratio is still good. It just depends on what price level of chips you want to hold and what price level of chips you can get, so you can harvest how much profit when it rises!

#突发新闻
South Korean crypto exchange mistakenly issued $95 billion worth of Bitcoin

Just now at 01:50, there was news that a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange accidentally issued Bitcoin worth $95 billion due to an operational error.

I find it quite puzzling; $95 billion at the current price of 70,000 translates to 9500000/7=1357142.857.
Currently, the market value of Bitcoin is 1.4 trillion, which means they directly issued 15% of Bitcoin!

MicroStrategy currently holds 710,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of only $49 billion. If this $95 billion Bitcoin is dumped, it would definitely break the floor!!

Hahahahaha, a sell order for 1,000 oil Bitcoins went through.

$BTC

#插针行情
#风险预警

I feel very bad,
Holding on to this point for stop loss is useless,
Is something big going to happen before dawn again??
Could it be another date event!??
Could 206 be another milestone?????
$BTC
$ETH

#特朗普称坚定支持加密货币
#加密周期

The cold winter has arrived, will spring be far behind?

The bulls and those holding spot assets must be going crazy, right?

Currently, there are basically no positive news, all we see are negatives, and everything is falling without direction! The bears are making a fortune.

I started buying the dip quite early, saying it was buying the bottom, but now it seems like I was just standing guard on the mountainside!
However, I still firmly believe that we still have a chance; this circle won't disappear!

As long as it doesn't disappear, and we hold on without letting ourselves get liquidated, I believe there is still a high probability of opportunity, I am convinced!

In fact, we don't really know where the true bottom is, just like last time with Bitcoin, when it fell to around seventy-five thousand, those who said it would drop to fifty thousand were considered merciful, while many were saying it would drop to twenty or thirty thousand! The same goes for Ethereum; when it fell to over thirteen hundred, to be honest, I was liquidated at that time. At first, I thought there was a high probability it wouldn't break 2500, and later I even thought 2000 was strong support. Then 1500 also broke down, and at that time, I really wondered if it might truly break 880 and hit a new low as the influencers said, but I still kept buying whenever I had funds!

This time, from the high position down, Bitcoin has only dropped by over forty points, and Ethereum is currently down less than sixty points. I think the probability of Bitcoin breaking sixty thousand and dropping to fifty thousand is really low, and I believe we are already at the bottom range!

I feel that the altcoins have already hit the bottom with their severe drop, of course, many trash altcoins may still drop another eighty or ninety points, but how much further can many quality altcoins drop? They have already hit new low after new low!

Finally, let's encourage each other: control your positions, persist to the end, winter will eventually pass, face the sea, and the spring flowers will bloom!

$BTC $ETH

#特朗普对欧洲加征关税 #比特币2026年价格预测

This year, it seems that this circle may be harder to operate, as it appears to have broken away from the original four-year cycle, and the fluctuations seem random!

Behind this seemingly random rise and fall, it is indeed dictated by an old man with yellow hair!

I have to admire this old man, translated as Trump or Trump, who is incredibly impressive.

$BTC

#美联储降息预期升温
#美联储理事米兰提前剧透

Major event, the most important data will be released shortly. Was there a hint in the speech by Federal Reserve Governor Milan at 9:30 PM tonight?

Federal Reserve Governor Milan said:
It is expected that the data will continue to indicate that rate cuts are appropriate.

Does this mean the upcoming data should be supportive of rate cut expectations?

Moreover, Milan stated that the Fed should cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year.

Milan has been a staunch supporter of Trump, a clear dovish advocate for rate cuts, and his views merely reflect his personal stance. He was also an advocate for aggressive rate cuts in the previous two instances!

His opinions are largely self-referential and unlikely to be adopted, but they do provide some psychological support for those firmly bullish!

#比特币2026年价格预测
#本周重要数据即将公布

At the beginning of 2026, the market has gained five consecutive days of growth!!!
Even the US-Venezuela conflict has not hindered the market's upward trend!

Important data is coming this week; will the market continue to surge upward as always, or will it pull back and then continue to rise, or is a major correction approaching?

First, let's take a look at the data that will be announced in the coming days:

January 7, 2026, Wednesday, 21:15
【US December ADP Employment Change】 Ten Thousand
Previous Value: -3.2 Expected: 4.5 Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★☆

January 8, 2026, Thursday, 21:30
【US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3】 Ten Thousand
Previous Value: 19.9 Expected: 21.6 Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★☆

January 9, 2026, Friday, 21:30
【US December Unemployment Rate】
Previous Value: 4.60% Expected: 4.50% Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★★
【US December Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls】 Ten Thousand
Previous Value: -10.5 Expected: 5.5 Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★★

There are many experts and KOLs in the market, many are bearish, talking about dead cat bounces, of course, there are also many bullish influencers, and I tend to favor the latter!

Because I believe that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and the release of liquidity have not fully manifested yet. Recently, ETFs have started to see net inflows again, and with the expectation that there will not be an interest rate cut in January, the probability of a cut is only a few percentage points. If there is favorable data, even if there is no rate cut in January, the probability of a cut in March and April will increase! Of course, we still need to look at inflation and other data before each meeting!

In fact, there has never been a market that keeps falling, nor one that keeps rising; there will always be pullbacks in between. Even in a bear market, there are rebounds. I think our main focus should be on managing our positions well, controlling risks, surviving, not blindly chasing highs, finding suitable entry points, and seizing opportunities to secure profits is the way to go!!

Although news and data cannot determine everything, they may become excuses for harvesting. Investment carries risks, and safety must be remembered!!!

A new year, a new beginning, new hopes, new vitality, new opportunities, new achievements; I wish everyone success and more wealth!

$BTC