For-Exx Kripto

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — AUGUST 31, 2026
🌐 TOP STORIES OF THE DAY
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, emphasizing the need to "get the job done" on inflation, rattled crypto markets; U.S. airstrikes on Iranian rocket launch sites over the weekend reignited tensions in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher and strengthening rate-hike expectations
A $6.4 billion options expiry today creates additional volatility risk in a fragile derivatives market
An attacker exploited Tectonic by inflating the low-liquidity TONIC governance token 100x within 20 minutes and borrowing aggressively against the inflated collateral; total value locked on the platform collapsed from $121.7 million to roughly $3 million, while the Cronos network coordinated a halt with 100 validators, freezing approximately $60 million on-chain
Billionaire fund manager Daniel Loeb's Third Point disclosed investments in four Bitcoin mining companies transitioning toward AI in Q2 — increasing its Hut 8 position to $151.8 million
Michael Saylor's Strategy returned to a 4.4% profit on its BTC holdings, above its average cost basis of $75,653; most of the roughly $13 billion paper loss caused by the July drop to $58,000 was erased during the latest five-day rally
Luke Dashjr left OCEAN and called Bitcoin a "spam coin"; he plans a hard fork on September 1 that will separate the BLAKE2b chain from the main chain
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC opened this morning around $77,700–$78,500, down 0.7% from yesterday's open; it fell noticeably from Friday's opening as Warsh's hawkish tone and the escalation in Iran weighed on sentiment. Expectations for a test of $80,000 failed to materialize last week, with BTC remaining range-bound below the level. Analysts are highlighting weakening exchange balances, ETF flows and spot demand as three warning signs heading into September; nevertheless, ETFs recorded approximately $924 million of inflows last week. BTC gained around 24% in August, its strongest monthly performance of 2026, but weak spot demand makes a sustained break above $80,000 more difficult.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH opened around $2,417–$2,454, down 1.6% from yesterday; XRP traded around $1.37, Solana around $103 and BNB around $687 — the broader market is in risk-reduction mode following Warsh's comments. Crypto markets have been gradually pulling back since Friday, although they remain firmly in positive territory for August overall.
━━━
📋 KEY CRYPTO DEVELOPMENTS
CryptoQuant's CEO argued that price metrics are repeating the 2023 recovery pattern and suggested that the "bear market is over" — a view that does not yet represent broad analyst consensus
According to Tokenomist, approximately $4.7 billion in token unlocks are expected in September ($1.2 billion cliff + $3.5 billion linear) — SUI, Aptos, Arbitrum and Ethena account for $292 million of that total next week
Capital B raised $24.5 million for its Bitcoin treasury strategy amid market uncertainty, with Blockstream's Adam Back also contributing
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Sui (SUI)
September 1, 2026
Amount: ~$9.7–18 million (~0.33–0.89% of circulating supply) — 13.53–22.01 million tokens (varies by source)
Recipients: Early Contributors + Community Reserve + Mysten Labs Treasury
Selling pressure: 🟢
Note: Routine cliff unlock at the start of the month, with limited float impact.
Ethena (ENA)
September 2, 2026
Amount: ~$6.05 million (0.46% of circulating supply) — 40.63 million tokens
Recipients: Fully allocated to the Foundation
Selling pressure: 🟢
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Today's $6.4 billion options expiry carries additional BTC volatility risk amid a fragile derivatives market. Warsh's hawkish stance and the escalation in Iran remain short-term pressure factors as the market enters September with three warning signs — exchange balances, ETF flows and spot demand. The September 1–2 SUI and ENA unlocks are the first small pieces of the month's broader $4.7 billion unlock schedule; larger releases involving Aptos and Arbitrum are expected later in the month. The key test remains whether BTC can retest the $80,000 resistance level.

August 31 – September 4, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar (TRT)
🎯 WEEKLY THEME
Friday’s August NFP is the climax, preceded by ISM, JOLTS, ADP and Challenger job cuts. BoC and RBNZ also decide rates in the same week, creating CAD/NZD whipsaw risk. Fed Governor Waller’s Thursday speech is also key ahead of NFP.
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Tuesday – September 1
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — ISM Manufacturing PMI, August 2026
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — JOLTS, July 2026
Weak data strengthens slowdown expectations; strong data raises caution.
Wednesday – September 2
🇺🇸 17:15 TRT — ADP Employment Report, August 2026
Final major private-sector employment signal before NFP.
🇨🇦 16:45 TRT — BoC Rate Decision
🇳🇿 04:00 TRT — RBNZ Rate Decision
Relative central-bank tone will drive CAD/NZD.
Thursday – September 3
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — Challenger Job-Cut Report, August 2026
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — Weekly Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 17:00 TRT — ISM Services PMI, August 2026
Three key releases one day before NFP; Challenger provides an early layoffs signal.
🇺🇸 During the day — Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speech
Waller’s stance is key ahead of NFP.
Friday – September 4
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — NFP, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, August 2026
🇨🇦 15:30 TRT — Canada Employment Report, August 2026
The main catalyst before September 16 FOMC. After July’s -23K, markets will assess whether weakness continues.
⚡ CRYPTO & MARKET RISKS
ISM + JOLTS: Weak readings → stronger September hold expectations and support risk assets. Strong data → greater caution ahead of NFP.
ADP + BoC/RBNZ: ADP will shape positioning into NFP. CAD/NZD volatility may spill into crypto through the dollar index.
NFP: Strong payrolls + high wage growth → weaker September hold expectations, stronger dollar and pressure on crypto leverage. Weak payrolls → firmer hold expectations and stronger risk-on conditions. Earlier data will pre-position markets, reducing surprise risk — but a result far from expectations can still trigger a sharp reaction.
$BTC

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 24, 2026
🌐 TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
Bitcoin and Ethereum posted their strongest performance in recent weeks over the weekend; BTC reached its highest level since May, while ETH reached its highest level since late January/early February
CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill described the rally as “a macro story, not a crypto story,” noting that easing inflation and weak employment data have weakened the case for further tightening
The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium will take place this week (August 27–29); the 2026 theme is “Financial Innovation and Payments and Their Implications for Policy” — its focus on digital assets makes it particularly relevant for crypto investors
The comment period on two joint SEC-CFTC requests covering crypto derivatives definitions and alternative compliance/swap data reporting closes today
BNB Smart Chain will activate the Pasteur hard fork this evening (22:30 TRT)
The U.S. weekly ADP employment report will be released on August 25; Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole will be critical for market direction throughout the week
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC opened this morning in the $77,700–79,100 range, up 0.8% from yesterday’s open; after gaining approximately 22–24% over the past seven days, it is trading near the local high of $78,048 reached on August 22. Since the $64,928 level on July 24, the monthly gain has reached roughly $12,788. Analysts say the move has largely been driven by renewed demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, short covering in derivatives markets, and a broad recovery in risk appetite; approximately $1.92 billion flowed into ETFs over the past seven days. Analysts warn that the market is now increasingly vulnerable to profit-taking, with $80,000 emerging as the next psychological test level.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH opened this morning in the $2,463–2,507 range, up 1.6% from yesterday and approximately 26% on the week, outperforming BTC. The rally remains broad-based; XRP gained 14.6% last week, while Solana rose around 6–7%. The broader market reflects improving risk appetite supported by two separate regulatory developments in Washington: the SEC proposal offering a pathway for crypto projects to exit securities classification and continued pressure surrounding the CLARITY Act.
━━━
📋 KEY CRYPTO NEWS
Atlantic Council senior fellow Hung Tran emphasized that the future direction of the Fed — increasingly populated by members who will take office under a new chair in May 2026 and increasingly share the White House’s economic agenda — will be more important for markets than Powell’s “farewell speech”
CoinDesk reported that the week will be shaped by “Jackson Hole colliding with geopolitical risk” — tensions between Iran and the U.S. and the risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war remain sources of uncertainty in the background
Analysts assess that the SEC’s proposal offering crypto projects a pathway out of securities classification does not directly create new demand, but is significant from a reputational standpoint by strengthening the perception that the U.S. regulatory environment is becoming more accommodating
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Humanity Protocol (H) August 25, 2026 Amount: ~$21.3 million (2.66% of circulating supply) — 266.47 million tokens Recipient profile: Three equal allocations Selling pressure: 🟡
Plasma (XPL) August 25, 2026 Amount: ~$8.91 million (3.31% of circulating supply) — 88.89 million tokens Recipient profile: Allocated to the ecosystem and growth fund Selling pressure: 🟡
According to Tokenomist, August 25 will see approximately $30.4 million in total unlocks; on August 26, HUMA is also expected to unlock 4.59% of its supply ($9.3 million).
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
The Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27–29 is the week’s most important event — the direct focus on digital assets means Fed officials’ comments are likely to carry more weight for crypto markets than usual. A dovish tone on interest rates or a further decline in yields could support the continuation of the rally, while a hawkish surprise could trigger profit-taking. A sustained breakout above $80,000 for BTC stands out as the week’s most critical technical threshold. The H, XPL and HUMA unlocks on August 25–26 appear relatively absorbable in an environment of strong risk appetite.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 20, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Trump met with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, the Winklevoss twins from Gemini, Arjun Sethi of Payward, which operates Kraken, and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev at a crypto summit held at the White House last night; he called on Congress to pass a “fair version” of the CLARITY Act.
The U.S. Treasury’s decision to double buyback operations for 20-30 year Treasuries pushed yields lower and, together with Trump’s summit, provided a second separate catalyst supporting risk assets.
The CLARITY Act is awaiting a critical procedural Senate vote on September 15; disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over government ethics provisions and stablecoin rewards continue, leaving the 60-vote threshold uncertain.
The CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee will meet for the first time today to discuss crypto assets, artificial intelligence and prediction markets.
Crypto miner manufacturer Canaan rose 20%, stablecoin issuer Circle gained 8%, and Robinhood rose 5% — showing the rally is spreading beyond BTC; despite this, BTC remains approximately 18% below its year-to-date level.
Chainlink Labs CEO Sergey Nazarov said Trump sought feedback from executives in the Oval Office following the summit and that passing the CLARITY Act appears “very possible.”
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC opened this morning in the $68,150-$69,300 range, 7.1% above yesterday’s open — its strongest daily performance since February 2026. The price briefly climbed to $71,980-$71,986, breaking above $70,000 for the first time since early June, before retreating to the $68,000-$69,000 range. $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated during the rally — forced buying by short sellers further fueled the move. Liquidation maps show heavy liquidity accumulation above $71,000-$72,000; breaking and sustaining above this zone is critical for the rally to continue. BTC is still approximately 40% below its October 2025 peak of ~$126,000.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH outperformed BTC, rising 17.5% to the $2,250-$2,290 range — up more than 18.3% from Tuesday. XRP gained 15.6%, Solana 12.4%, and BNB 6.7%; the rally is progressing with broad-based participation. Crypto-linked stocks also benefited from the same wave, with Coinbase and Robinhood among the companies standing out in the rally.
━━━
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Analysts emphasize that the rally is driven not by a single trigger but by two separate catalysts — the Treasury’s bond buybacks and Trump’s push for the CLARITY Act. The Treasury announcement had already begun lifting BTC alongside stocks, bonds and gold before the summit.
The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in May and the House in July 2025; if the Senate vote on September 15 fails, the bill could effectively be considered dead for this year — the limited window before the midterm elections adds further pressure.
SEC Chair Atkins said this week’s “Regulation Crypto Assets” proposal is connected to the need for the legal permanence that the CLARITY Act would provide, but emphasized that Congress cannot be replaced as the final solution.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Avalanche (AVAX)
August 21, 2026
Amount: ~$23 million (~0.7% of market cap) — ~3.58 million tokens (0.5% of total supply)
Recipient profile: Foundation
Selling pressure: 🟢
Note: Routine monthly Foundation unlock; strong overall risk appetite could facilitate absorption.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Whether the heavy liquidity zone above $71,000-$72,000 is broken will determine whether the rally develops into a lasting trend reversal or a short-term squeeze. The September 15 procedural CLARITY Act vote is now the market’s most important medium-term event; failure remains possible and could lead to part of the rally being retraced. The CFTC’s first Global Markets Advisory Committee meeting today will be monitored for regulatory direction. The August 21 AVAX unlock is a routine release expected to have limited impact in the strong risk-appetite environment.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 19, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
The U.S. Treasury, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, announced it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury buyback operations — the per-operation limit was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion; major operations will begin on September 9 and cover 10- to 30-year maturities.
Hours after the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007, the announcement triggered a sharp pullback in yields; the dollar weakened, and markets interpreted the move as liquidity support.
The SEC announced a new rule proposal called “Regulation Crypto Assets” on August 18 — it includes a “startup exemption” allowing crypto entrepreneurs to raise up to $5 million over four years without registering securities; a 60-day public comment period has begun.
Metaplanet plans to establish a U.S. treasury platform called “Superplanet” through a 2,100 BTC ($132 million) contribution to Nasdaq-listed Super League; the company held 43,000 BTC as of August 18.
South Korea’s Media and Communications Standards Commission classified Polymarket as an illegal gambling platform and decided to block domestic access; the Kospi index plunged 5.8% the same day.
The FOMC minutes from the July meeting will be released today; the White House will also hold a high-level meeting with crypto industry executives today.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC surged 5-6% over the past 24 hours to the $68,000-$68,500 range following the Treasury’s buyback announcement, briefly touching a two-month high of $69,700 during the day. The price was rejected around the 200-day moving average at approximately $68,989-$69,031, a level tested for the first time since October 2025, before pulling back. $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated during the move. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said holding above $65,500 is the critical threshold for further upside, adding that investors should position toward a $100,000 year-end target. BTC had previously remained range-bound between $60,000-$67,000 for weeks, while implied volatility was at multi-year lows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $297.5 million on August 17, led by BlackRock IBIT with $160.2 million.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH outperformed BTC, rising 8.4% to $2,084; open interest briefly surged to $13 billion. Solana gained 7%. Gold also benefited from the same liquidity wave, rising 3.5% to $4 ,489, while silver reached $65.60. Crypto-linked stocks also joined the rally: Bullish rose 13% and Coinbase gained 11%, ahead of Trump’s meeting today with crypto and financial executives.
━━━
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Analysts described the Treasury move as “quietly doing the Fed’s job,” interpreting it as an attempt to provide liquidity support amid rising public debt and interest payments — comments that “all roads eventually lead to Bitcoin” gained attention.
The SEC’s new proposal could open a path for mature networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to move beyond securities classification by meeting decentralization criteria; while the CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate, the SEC has moved forward with its own regulation based on existing law.
A Forbes analysis published the previous day had highlighted the risk that rising Treasury yields could trigger a 30% decline in BTC — the Treasury’s move appears to have reversed that risk for now.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
LayerZero (ZRO)
August 20, 2026
Amount: ~$20.5 million (4.40% of circulating supply)
Recipient profile: Private Investors + Founders/Team + Community
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: LayerZero’s ongoing ZRO buyback program, funded by Stargate revenue, partially offsets unlock pressure; the broader increase in risk appetite could also facilitate absorption.
Sui (SUI)
September 1, 2026
Amount: Community Reserve allocation; 40.75% of circulating supply has been unlocked so far
Selling pressure: 🟡
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Today’s FOMC minutes will be critical for how markets interpret the Fed’s rate path following the Treasury’s liquidity move — if the minutes are hawkish, part of the decline in yields could reverse. The White House’s meeting with the crypto sector today, together with the SEC’s new regulatory proposal, makes this an important day for the industry’s position in Washington. Whether BTC can sustainably reclaim the 200-day moving average (~$69,000) is the most critical technical threshold in the coming days; failure could bring a pullback toward $65,500. The August 20 ZRO unlock appears relatively absorbable in an environment of increasing risk appetite.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 18, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S.-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked; restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have revived concerns over energy supply, pushing Brent crude to around $91 per barrel.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.73%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.31%, its highest level in more than two years; elevated yields and oil prices are weighing on risk appetite.
All three major U.S. stock indexes declined; energy stocks were strong, while technology stocks were mixed.
The U.S. Treasury Department opened public comment on stablecoin implementation rules under the GENIUS Act.
Japan’s 5-year government bond yield rose 2 basis points to a record 2.18%.
A macOS screen-sharing vulnerability was exploited by attackers to gain root access and distribute Monero mining malware.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC recovered to the $64,000-$64,500 range today after falling below $63,000 at the start of the week; the $65,000-$65,600 range remains a strong supply zone that has not been broken on any attempt this month. Despite more than $385 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, net inflows resumed on Monday following a three-day outflow streak.
$63,245 is being watched as short-term support, with a close below it potentially bringing the $62,665 area into focus; a break above $64,470 would signal strengthening buying confidence. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 40, around the fear-neutral boundary, while the Altcoin Season Index recovered to 46 — cautious, but no panic. $BTC
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH is trading weakly in the $1,895-$1,910 range in line with BTC; the continued deadlock in the Middle East is generally weighing on risk appetite. Total crypto market capitalization rose 2.6% daily to $2.28 trillion; BTC dominance stands at 56.5%, while ETH dominance is 10.1%. The Polkadot and XRP Ledger ecosystems were among the day’s top gainers. On the losing side, a sharp correction occurred: Velvet fell 44.5%, Cysic 36.4%, and SAFEbit 30.5%.
━━━
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Jane Street’s Q2 13F filing showed that it increased its Bitcoin ETF position by $630 million, bringing its total to approximately $1.06 billion; in the previous quarter, it had reduced its overall BTC ETF position by 71%.
Bitmine increased its total Ethereum holdings to 5.82 million ETH with a new purchase of $19 million and 9,926 ETH — equivalent to 4.8% of circulating supply, approaching its 5% accumulation target.
Total stablecoin market capitalization fell to approximately $308.3 billion in July — the third consecutive month of net outflows.
Pump.fun launched a zero-commission trading model with cross-chain fees fixed at 0.1%.
The Ethereum Foundation released Platåberget, the early testnet for the Glamsterdam upgrade; the upgrade aims to increase L1 transaction capacity and block production efficiency in the second half of 2026.
Hyperliquid supported the SEC’s proposal to remove the order-protection rule, calling for best-execution guidance specifically tailored to on-chain markets.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Avalanche (AVAX)
August 20, 2026
Amount: approximately $268 million (2.4% of circulating supply) — 9.4-9.5 million AVAX
Recipient profile: Part of the routine monthly vesting program (team/investor and foundation allocations)
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: One of the largest dollar-denominated unlocks of the month; its size creates short-term downside pressure risk for AVAX.
No new confirmed unlock above the threshold was identified for August 19.
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
The U.S. August PMI data and Japan’s CPI, both due on August 21, will coincide with AKE’s unlock representing 9.35% of circulating supply, potentially increasing volatility toward the weekend. The August 20 AVAX unlock will be closely watched as one of the largest individual supply events remaining this month. Restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices are likely to continue pressuring risk assets, including crypto, through the geopolitical risk premium.

August 17–21, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
July CPI softened to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to a five-month low of 2.5% — both came exactly in line with expectations. PPI remained unchanged, with the expected 0.2% increase failing to materialize. This combination of softer data, together with July’s -23K NFP shock, pushed expectations for a September hold to 64%. However, while the data has calmed, the calendar has not: this week brings both the July FOMC minutes and a global central-bank PMI package — the market will get its first look at what was actually discussed at the meeting that passed with three dissenting votes under Warsh. August NFP and CPI have not yet been released; this week is an interim breather on the road to the September FOMC, but the minutes could contain surprises.
📅 Economic Calendar
Tuesday – August 18
🇺🇸 15:30 TRT — Housing Starts & Building Permits, July 2026
🇺🇸 16:15 TRT — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, July 2026
The July picture for the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector and manufacturing side. Following the weak employment picture, these two indicators will test the breadth of growth — is only the labor market weakening, or is the broader economy slowing as well?
🇬🇧 09:00 TRT — UK CPI, July 2026
The trajectory of UK inflation; a parallel data point showing whether a global disinflationary picture is emerging alongside the Fed’s easing signals.
Wednesday – August 19
🇺🇸 21:00 TRT — FOMC Minutes (July 28–29 Meeting)
The centerpiece of the week. At that meeting, three members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while Warsh defended the framework that “we are looking at the direction of the data, not a single data point.” The minutes will show the depth of this internal debate: How strongly were the dissenting members’ arguments presented? Since the members were discussing this at the meeting before the July NFP came in at -23K, the minutes reflect an internal Fed debate that was unaware of the weak employment picture we have today — this lag factor will shape how the market interprets the minutes.
Friday – August 21
🌍 Afternoon — Global S&P Flash PMI Package (Germany, Eurozone, UK, U.S.)
🇺🇸 16:45 TRT — U.S. S&P Global Flash PMI (Manufacturing + Services), August
The first real-time activity data for August. Following July’s -23K NFP shock, this will provide the first fresh signal on businesses’ hiring and growth plans. The prices sub-indices will show whether the zero growth in PPI is continuing.
⚡ Crypto & Market Risks
FOMC Minutes (Wednesday 21:00):
Strong representation of the dissenting members’ arguments in the minutes → the market remembers that a September hike remains on the table, and the dollar could recover. If the minutes show Warsh’s “we are waiting for the data” framework as dominant → the current 64% hold pricing is reinforced, maintaining a neutral-to-positive backdrop for risk assets. The critical point: The minutes are a backward-looking snapshot — they do not include the July NFP shock, meaning the market may view them as “old news” and largely look past them.
Flash PMI (Friday 16:45):
A signal that hiring intentions are weakening → strengthens the interpretation that the NFP shock was not a one-month anomaly but part of a genuine slowdown; September hold expectations become even more entrenched, supportive for crypto. A strong PMI, however, would support the thesis that -23K was statistical noise and could make the market cautious again.
Calm but fragile week:
August NFP and CPI have not yet been released — this week is an interim window. Combined with low summer liquidity, an unexpected sentence in the FOMC minutes or Flash PMIs could trigger a disproportionately large market reaction. Jackson Hole (August 27–29) is the next major event; this is a positioning week.
$BTC $XRP

Fed’s Search for a New Path: Rate Hike Risk Remains on the Table After Inflation Data
The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting has brought a persistent question back to the forefront of markets: Will the Fed’s next move be a cut or a hike? The inflation data released on August 12 and a series of hawkish central bank messages suggest that the answer may be shifting in a different direction from what markets previously expected.
July Decision: Divergence Beneath the Surface
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady at its July meeting was not unanimous, passing by a 9-3 vote. The fact that three committee members voted for a 25-basis-point hike showed that differences of opinion over inflation risks had surfaced within the committee. The meeting minutes, due to be released on August 19, will reveal the reasoning behind this divergence and will be closely watched as a critical data point ahead of September.
CPI Softer Than Expected, But Did Not Change the Picture
The July inflation data released on August 12 presented a mixed picture. Annual CPI edged down to 3.4% from the previous month, while the monthly increase was 0.1%. Core CPI came in at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Ahead of the data, weak employment figures — including a 23,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and ADP private-sector employment coming in below expectations — had strengthened expectations that inflation could slow; while the CPI’s moderate reading did not completely remove the hike scenario, according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a September hike fell to 50% from around 60% before the employment data.
Hawkish Camp: Kashkari, Cook and Warsh on the Same Line
Despite inflation losing momentum, the hawkish tone within the Fed has not faded. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the three members who voted for a hike at the July meeting, argued that rates should begin to rise gradually now to contain inflation. Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivered a similar message, saying they are prepared to hike if inflation does not slow and emphasizing that policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting for a return to the 2% target.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also closed the door on any flexibility around the inflation target; he said there would be no “soft inflation target” or “implicit loose target” approach, with 2% remaining the only reference point. According to the Financial Times, Warsh also signaled that he would be prepared to raise rates at the September meeting if inflation data came in high.
Change in Leadership: From Powell to Warsh
Kevin Warsh became the Fed’s 17th Chair on May 22, 2026, replacing Jerome Powell. His Senate confirmation passed by a narrow 54-45 margin, making the appointment one of the most contentious chair confirmations of the modern era. Warsh was known for his strong criticism of the Fed becoming overly involved in markets and arguing that forward guidance could lead to policy mistakes; sources close to the matter have also confirmed that he has raised the possibility of reducing the frequency of FOMC meetings since taking office.
Trump, meanwhile, said the rate-decision process depends partly, though not entirely, on Warsh, emphasizing that the decision does not belong to him alone.
Jackson Hole in Focus
Investors are now turning their attention to Warsh’s first major speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Market participants expect broader and more directional signals from the speech; given Warsh’s distance from forward guidance, he is likely to avoid firm commitments and emphasize data dependence.
Next Stop: September 16
There is no scheduled FOMC meeting in August; the next rate decision will be announced at 21:00 TRT on Wednesday, September 16, following the September 15-16 meeting. This meeting is particularly important because it is one of the four meetings that will include updated economic projections (SEP) and the dot plot.
In summary, the picture is as follows: The moderate CPI reading reduced rate-hike expectations somewhat, but a series of hawkish messages from Kashkari, Cook and Warsh shows that the debate over “rate-hike risk” continues to replace the “rate-cut cycle” scenario that markets had priced in for a long time. The August 19 meeting minutes and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be key in determining the direction before September.
$BTC

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 14, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
July PPI came in at 4.7% year-over-year, below expectations of 4.9%; however, the crypto market failed to recover despite the moderate reading, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows for a second consecutive day.
The SEC canceled its “Regulation Crypto” meeting, its first major regulatory initiative for crypto assets, citing scheduling issues and without providing a new date.
Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion — the deal brings approximately $30 billion in options-based revenue ETFs, including Bitcoin- and Ethereum-linked funds, under Goldman’s asset management umbrella.
Sharplink is expanding its yield strategy by directing $200 million of ETH from its Ethereum treasury into liquid staking through Lido; the assets will be held in custody by Anchorage Digital.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) fell to ~36%, its lowest level of 2026 — the VIX index is also at its lowest level since January, indicating a low-volatility regime across markets.
Ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions and rising sovereign debt/bond yields remain background risk factors.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC fell to the $62,700-$63,000 range this morning, opening unchanged from yesterday but declining more than 1% intraday to its lowest level since August 3; the entire rally from last week has been erased. Trading below all major moving averages, BTC’s Fear & Greed Index fell to 29, while the daily RSI14 stands at 42, weak but not yet in oversold territory. The support zone around $62,532 overlaps with the lower Bollinger Band; reclaiming the EMA20 above $63,961 could signal that the downtrend is weakening. Nevertheless, Bitcoin ETFs still recorded $850 million in net inflows — institutional demand has not completely disappeared despite spot weakness.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH is trading in the $1,870-$1,885 range, showing relative resilience compared with BTC despite the broader low-volume market sell-off. XRP continues to consolidate near the $1 level. NEAR, Morpho, TAO and Jupiter have fallen approximately 2% since midnight; cautious positioning remains the dominant theme across altcoins.
━━━
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $192 million for a second consecutive day — the first back-to-back outflow streak since late July.
RedotPay has suspended plans for a $1 billion U.S. IPO, according to Bloomberg.
Market pricing for the CLARITY Act remains uncertain; analysts believe the bill’s eventual passage would be a long-term catalyst, but is unlikely to be a decisive factor in the near term.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Connex (CONX)
August 15, 2026
Amount: ~$11.55 million (1.43% of circulating supply) — 1.32 million tokens
Selling pressure: 🟡
Arbitrum (ARB)
August 16, 2026
Amount: ~$7.19 million (1.61% of circulating supply) — 92.65 million tokens
Selling pressure: 🟡
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Despite PPI coming in below expectations, BTC’s failure to recover and the second consecutive day of ETF outflows indicate that the market is experiencing weakness driven more by liquidity and positioning than by macro factors. The SEC’s postponement of the Regulation Crypto meeting extends short-term regulatory uncertainty. Goldman’s acquisition of NEOS shows that institutional consolidation in crypto-linked income products is continuing. The CONX, ARB and YZY unlocks on August 15-16 could provide an additional source of volatility across altcoins in the coming days; whether the low implied-volatility regime continues should become clearer toward the end of the weekend.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 13, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said the transfer of 5,014 BTC ($322 million) was a routine treasury operation, with no sale taking place and the company’s 43,000 BTC holdings remaining unchanged; the transfer cost only ~$8 in network fees.
Fidelity filed with the SEC to add staking to its spot Ethereum ETF.
In Hong Kong, HashKey began offering its regulated HKDAP stablecoin to eligible investors.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said valuations of crypto assets outside Bitcoin could at least double if protocols direct their revenues toward token buybacks and burns.
In South Korea, the head of CeFi lender Delio was sentenced to 15 years in prison for embezzling $50 million from more than 1,100 customers.
U.S. July PPI data and jobless claims for the week of August 8 will be released today; Cisco and Coherent will report quarterly results, while Google will announce a new product launch.
━━━
₿ BITCOIN
BTC opened this morning in the $63,400-$63,600 range, slightly negative from yesterday; every daily opening this week has been lower than the previous day, and daily/weekly/monthly/yearly trends have turned negative. After briefly recovering to $64,400-$64,500 following yesterday’s CPI, the price failed to hold its gains and pulled back to the $63,200-$63,300 range. The $62,000-$66,000 range remains the main trading range since CPI; as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and no lasting solution is reached with Iran, it is becoming harder for BTC to hold above $65,000.
━━━
🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH opened in the $1,870-$1,880 range and is slightly negative from yesterday. Monero and Hyperliquid started the day outperforming to the upside in a broader market moving within a narrow, low-volatility range. Fidelity’s application to add staking to its ETH ETF is notable for the expansion of institutional Ethereum products.
━━━
📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
KuCoin Research reported that the moderate CPI reading eased rate-hike pressure, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are limiting the upside potential in risk appetite.
Bullish reported a $280 million loss in the second quarter due to a $244.6 million decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings; subscription revenue partially offset the slowdown in digital assets.
Figure’s tokenization-focused blockchain lending marketplace volume surged to $4.3 billion, while quarterly revenue reached $226 million.
━━━
🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
UP
August 13, 2026
Amount: ~$3.06 million (7.44% of circulating supply)
Selling pressure: 🔴
Note: One of the highest-ratio unlocks of August; high relative to the circulating float.
SEI
August 15, 2026
Amount: ~$3.7 million (1.42% of circulating supply)
Selling pressure: 🟡
STRK
August 15, 2026
Amount: ~$3.2 million (3.61% of circulating supply)
Selling pressure: 🟡
━━━
🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS
Today’s PPI data and jobless claims will be watched to see whether they confirm the moderate inflation picture created by yesterday’s CPI. BTC’s declining opening trend every day this week and its inability to hold above $65,000 show that the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to limit risk appetite. UP’s high-ratio unlock today, followed by SEI and STRK unlocks on August 15, could create volatility among mid-cap altcoins. Progress in the SEC process for Fidelity’s ETH staking ETF application will continue to be monitored as a potential medium-term catalyst for institutional Ethereum demand.

What Is Worldcoin (WLD)? Why Has Sam Altman’s Project Fallen More Than 97%?
Worldcoin (WLD) emerged as one of the most ambitious crypto projects aiming to distinguish real humans from bots on the internet and create a global digital identity network during a period of rapid AI development.
At the center of the project are World ID, World App, World Chain, and the WLD token. Users can verify that they are unique humans through a specialized biometric device called the Orb and, in eligible countries, earn WLD tokens.
The project attracted significant attention even before launch because OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was among its co-founders.
However, WLD’s price performance developed in the opposite direction of the expectations created by the project. WLD reached an all-time high of approximately $11.74 in March 2024. In 2026, it is trading around $0.30. This represents a loss of approximately 97% from its ATH.
What Is Worldcoin (WLD)?
Worldcoin is a blockchain ecosystem focused on human verification and digital identity that now operates under the broader name World Network.
Its main components are:
World ID: A digital identity that allows users to prove they are real and unique humans.World App: A mobile application providing access to World ID, a wallet, crypto assets, and applications.World Chain: An Ethereum-based Layer-2 blockchain designed for human-centered use.WLD: The native token of World Network.
The primary purpose of World ID is to prove that you are a “real human” online without revealing your personal identity. The system aims to accomplish this using zero-knowledge proofs and biometric verification infrastructure.
How Did Worldcoin Emerge?
The foundations of Worldcoin were laid in 2019 with the establishment of Tools for Humanity.
Its co-founders include Sam Altman, Alex Blania, and Max Novendstern.
After years of development and beta testing, the project officially launched on July 24, 2023.
Alongside the launch, the WLD token was introduced and token distribution began for millions of users who had previously been verified through the Orb.
What Did Worldcoin Promise?
The vision presented by Worldcoin was much broader than that of a traditional cryptocurrency project.
The core idea was:
Being able to prove that you are human on the internet in the age of AI.
The project’s promises included:
Global digital identityHuman verification against bots and fake accountsPrivacy-focused identity systemGlobal financial accessBroad distribution of WLDHuman-centered blockchain infrastructure“Proof of Humanity” in the age of AILong-term infrastructure for the concept of an AI-supported universal basic income
World’s own documentation describes one of the fundamental goals of WLD as distributing a large portion of the tokens to unique humans.
What Is Sam Altman’s Role in Worldcoin?
Sam Altman is one of Worldcoin’s co-founders.
However, there is an important distinction.
While the independent governance of World Network is managed by World Foundation, Tools for Humanity plays an important role in technology development and products such as World App.
Tools for Humanity CEO Alex Blania, while Sam Altman serves as chairman of the company.
Therefore, describing Worldcoin as “Sam Altman’s company” would technically be an oversimplification.
However, Altman’s role as a co-founder was a major factor in Worldcoin gaining global recognition.
What Is the Orb?
One of Worldcoin’s most controversial and notable technologies is the biometric device called the Orb.
Users visit a physical location where an Orb is available.
The device uses biometric characteristics to verify that a person is a real and unique human.
Following verification, the user receives a World ID.
According to World’s technical explanation, the system uses cryptographic methods and zero-knowledge proofs designed to protect raw biometric data.
However, this biometric structure is precisely what created one of Worldcoin’s biggest controversies.
Why Did Worldcoin Generate So Much Hype?
Worldcoin’s biggest difference from other crypto projects was its direct connection to the AI narrative.
Sam Altman’s global recognition through OpenAI and ChatGPT helped turn Worldcoin into more than an ordinary altcoin.
During 2023 and 2024, investors focused on the following scenario:
AI will increase the number of bots on the internet → humans will need to prove they are real humans → World ID will become a standard → WLD will gain significant value as a result.
This narrative created very strong speculative demand for WLD.
Why Did WLD Reach $11.74?
WLD’s biggest rally occurred during the first months of 2024.
The combination of the AI and Worldcoin narratives, the broader bull market in crypto, and expectations for global expansion of World ID generated significant demand for the token.
WLD reached an all-time high of approximately $11.74 on March 9, 2024.
At these levels, the market began pricing Worldcoin not merely as a token, but as a potential major component of future global digital identity infrastructure.
However, token economics and regulatory issues gradually became more prominent afterward.
Why Has WLD Fallen More Than 97%?
Several factors contributed to WLD’s collapse following its all-time high.
The most important include:
Very high token supply and continuous unlocksEarly investor and team tokens entering circulationWLD’s real-world usage falling short of expectationsRegulatory issues surrounding World IDBiometric data controversiesWeakness across the broader altcoin marketThe AI narrative failing to translate directly into token priceDeclining investor expectations around its high valuation
Token unlocks in particular created significant selling pressure on WLD for an extended period.
Why Did Token Unlocks Become Such a Major Problem for WLD?
WLD was designed with a total supply of 10 billion tokens.
Not all of the tokens were initially in circulation.
According to data released by World in April 2026, approximately 4.9 billion WLD had been unlocked at that time, with 3.3 billion in circulation.
The total daily unlock rate, previously around 5.1 million WLD, was planned to fall to approximately 2.9 million WLD on July 24, 2026.
This represents an approximately 43% reduction in emissions.
However, the daily unlock mechanism has not completely ended.
This is important for WLD investors because the entry of new tokens into the market can create selling pressure when demand does not grow at the same pace.
Why Has Worldcoin’s Tokenomics Been Criticized?
One of Worldcoin’s fundamental goals was to distribute WLD as broadly as possible among the global population.
However, this distribution model had an important consequence:
Token supply grew rapidly over the years.
On one side, there were WLD tokens distributed to millions of users, while team and investor allocations also needed to enter circulation over time.
Therefore, WLD’s price needed more than simply attracting new users to rise.
Growth in new users and usage needed to exceed the amount of new tokens entering the market.
That balance could not be maintained for an extended period.
Biometric Data Controversies
One of Worldcoin’s biggest problems emerged not from the technology itself but from regulation.
Scanning irises through the Orb led to investigations in several countries over data privacy and consumer rights.
In Spain, the data protection authority temporarily halted Worldcoin’s collection of biometric data in 2024.
Portugal similarly imposed a 90-day suspension on data collection.
The Spanish data protection authority later initiated a process seeking the deletion of iris data collected by Worldcoin.
These developments became one of the most important factors slowing Worldcoin’s global expansion.
Was Worldcoin Really Created to Scan People’s Eyes?
The project’s primary purpose is not simply to collect biometric data.
The fundamental idea advocated by World Network is that as AI develops, distinguishing humans from bots on the internet will become increasingly difficult, creating a need for a global “Proof of Personhood” infrastructure.
However, the use of biometrics for this infrastructure naturally brings serious privacy and centralization debates.
Therefore, Worldcoin’s success depends not only on whether the Orb works technically, but also on whether societies and regulators accept the technology.
Worldcoin Became World Network in 2024
In October 2024, the project underwent a major rebranding.
Worldcoin is now positioned as World Network / World.
The new structure consists of three core components:
World ID + World Chain + Worldcoin (WLD)
This repositioned the WLD token from being the entirety of the project to being the economic component of a broader human-verification and financial network.
World Chain was also launched as the mainnet during the same period.
Does Worldcoin Really Have That Many Users?
World announced that the network had reached more than 20 million participants by the end of 2024.
However, there is an important distinction here:
A “World App user,” a “World ID holder,” and a “unique human verified through the Orb” are not the same metrics.
Therefore, directly interpreting the total number of users announced by the project as the number of active users can be misleading.
World’s primary goal is to increase the number of verified humans globally and make this identity usable across third-party applications.
Was Worldcoin Promoted in Türkiye?
Worldcoin also became one of the projects closely followed by crypto communities in Türkiye.
The “scan your eyes and earn WLD” model and the free-token narrative attracted the attention of individual users in Türkiye.
However, available public sources reviewed do not provide sufficient evidence showing that JrKripto, Paradotor, or another major Turkish crypto influencer conducted a verified paid and organized investor campaign for Worldcoin.
Therefore, it would not be accurate to portray a specific Turkish influencer as having “brought people into WLD.”
Worldcoin’s expansion in Türkiye appears to have occurred primarily through global interest in the project, free WLD distribution, social media, and crypto communities.
Why Did WLD Investors Suffer Losses?
The fundamental problem experienced by Worldcoin investors is not that the project completely disappeared.
The problem is the huge gap between the expectations created by the project and the economic performance of the WLD token.
For an investor who bought WLD at $11.74 in 2024, the decline to around $0.30 represents a loss of approximately 97%.
During the same period, World ID and World Chain continued to be developed.
In other words, this is not a case of “the product disappeared”; rather, the token value collapsed while the product continued to develop.
This distinction places Worldcoin in a completely different category from Terra, SafeMoon, or FTX.
What Are the Expectations for Worldcoin?
Worldcoin’s story is not over yet.
The growth of bots and fake-account problems driven by AI could increase the need for technologies capable of proving that someone is a real human.
If World ID can be used across social media, finance, gaming, ticketing, and other internet services, the project could become an important infrastructure provider.
World Network is also continuing to expand its Orb infrastructure and integrate World ID into different applications in 2026.
However, for WLD to deliver a strong performance again from an investment perspective, two problems need to be solved:
Real growth in World ID usage and the ability of demand to absorb the selling pressure created by increasing token supply.
What Is Worldcoin’s Biggest Risk?
For Worldcoin, the biggest risk is no longer simply the crypto market.
The project’s future also depends on biometric data regulations and social acceptance.
The global expansion of highly sensitive technology such as iris scanning will continue to attract the attention of governments and data protection authorities.
Indeed, investigations and restrictions have occurred in different countries regarding Worldcoin’s Orb operations.
Therefore, if Worldcoin fails, the reason may not be the token price alone.
Failure of regulators or users to sufficiently adopt the project’s underlying identity model could also limit its growth.
Conclusion
Worldcoin is one of the most unusual projects in the crypto market.
On one side, there are extremely powerful narratives involving Sam Altman, artificial intelligence, biometric verification, World ID, and global digital identity.
On the other side, there is a more than 97% decline in token price, billions of new WLD entering circulation, and regulatory problems across different parts of the world.
WLD fell from its approximately $11.74 ATH to around $0.30, losing approximately 97% of its value.
However, it would not be accurate to consider Worldcoin a “dead coin.”
World Network is still being developed, the use cases for World ID are being expanded, and the Orb infrastructure continues to grow.
The real question now is:
Can Worldcoin’s technology for verifying real humans become the standard for the internet of the future, or will WLD remain another major altcoin disappointment left behind by the AI and Sam Altman hype of 2024?
What will determine WLD’s future is not simply its price; it is whether a sustainable balance can be established between real users, real usage, and token economics.