何渔

1、Overall assessment:
The current market has shifted from a “structural repair after a rebound” to “weak consolidation under macro pressure.” BTC has not yet entered a continuous cascading deleveraging, but after it broke below 65,480 yesterday, the prior short-term support has turned into rebound resistance. 64,636 is the new low of this leg, and it is the key level for today’s assessment—whether the market continues to range and repair laterally, or expands downward again.
Binance’s publicly available data snapshot shows that over the past 24 hours, BTC fell by about 0.47%, ETH fell by about 2.06%, SOL fell by about 2.11%, and SPCX rose by about 0.33%. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is about $2.22 trillion, with trading volume of about $59.5 billion, and it continues to decline. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 37. Shrinking volume alongside weak sentiment suggests the market is not experiencing broad panic-selling right now, but it also lacks enough incremental spot capital to support a sustained rebound.

1. Overall assessment:
The current market is closer to a structure repair after a rebound and range rebalancing, but it has not yet re-entered a smooth, one-way uptrend. This month, BTC has recovered from around 58,030 to 66,924, but it hasn’t managed to hold at higher levels. In the past two trading days, it has returned to the 65,500—66,300 range. According to Binance’s market overview, the total market cap of the crypto market is about $2.24 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $64.3 billion, down 7.59% compared with the previous cycle. The Fear & Greed Index is 39, so the market is still in the “Fear” zone. Prices have not shown an all-out, runaway selloff, but trading volume is shrinking and passive selling is not dominating; instead, sell orders are in the lead, indicating that short-term capital is more cautious.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting: rate-cut expectations are heating up—will BTC really just jump straight up?
First, the conclusion:
For events like the FOMC, it’s not as simple as “rate cut = positive for BTC”.
What truly affects BTC is how the market re-prices the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and risk appetite.
In this July FOMC meeting, the focus isn’t on guessing a single line—it’s on three things:
First, whether the interest-rate decision is more hawkish or dovish than expected.
If the outcome is pretty much in line with market expectations, the first wave of volatility may be absorbed quickly.
Second, whether the wording in the statement turns more dovish.
If the Fed releases clearer signals of easing, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakening, then the near-term pressure for BTC to repair could be reduced.