Crypto-爱币斯坦

Why are they masters? That is the result of thousands of trials and tribulations. How much time, energy and cost have you spent on learning how to trade? If you have spent nothing or very little, then don't ask why others can get results but you can't. I practiced trading for more than eight hours a day. It took two hours a day to find targets. I researched four projects at the fastest every day, and sometimes I could only finish one. The whole team researched all the currencies of Binance and OK very clearly, which took more than half a year. Most people would be numb after just one look at the Google spreadsheet. With so much information, we think the basic information is clear at a glance. Next, we will study the K-line pattern, market maker methods, project structure and operation. This is also the reason why currencies are not shared often. The reason is simple. Olympic gold medalists only have a few minutes or one chance to go on stage, but they have studied and practiced hard for more than ten years! When you see people sharing coins, your cognition is not at the same frequency and level as theirs, and you can't even tell whether the person sharing is an expert or not. So many people often suffer a lot in this regard. They call it paying a lot of tuition fees, but in fact, they have wasted their hard-earned money. They wanted to change their fate in the coin circle, but ended up becoming fuel for others.

Learning is important, and practice is more important. There is a gap in the middle that needs to be crossed. It is very difficult to integrate knowledge and practice.

My confidence comes from the fact that the entire team has been deeply involved in the coin circle for many years and has experienced the trials and tribulations of the coin circle, and the confidence brought by continuous learning and practice. That's why I say that each coin has its own temper, because in my heart they are not just a string of letters but people with life and feelings.

In the evening, the PPI data came in as a bearish surprise—5.3 above expectations, reaching 5.4. If we extrapolate from this, tomorrow’s CPI should likely be bearish; my outlook may be right.

After the data was released, Bitcoin dropped to around 766. If there’s a rebound, it probably won’t get above 780—so I’m still bearish.

I’m keeping my short position and watching to see if it can reach the 750–740 zone I predicted. Unfortunately, my short from 817—I was so sleepy that I decided to go to bed instead. Otherwise, I could have gotten stopped out. I think I could’ve entered around 820.

I’m going to scale up the level for a more comfortable trade. One position could let you make more than 5,000 points; if you’re lucky, you can even make over 10,000 points in that one to two weeks—earning more and not getting as tired. In normal times, you also have more time to study and improve yourself; meanwhile, short-term trading means you have to keep staring at the charts and it’s exhausting.
$BTC

After this big rally pushed up to 70,000, about 7,360 units were sold by those holding for 1–2 years, and about 1,860 units by those holding for 5 years. For those holding for more than 10 years, it was around 620. Overall, it clearly shows a state of distribution.

Recently, “free credit card repayment,” “money laundering through account transfers,” “running commissions for scoring,” and other projects may hide money-laundering risks. If ordinary people provide personal accounts or participate in illegal cryptocurrency transactions, they may also become “tools” of criminal groups.

Everyone should be careful not to fall for scams, so you won’t end up being forced to do menial tasks. Also, be cautious about so-called U-cards within the country—those are also illegal.

Trump, that old “father” is now so scared he’s clamping down on the card! Before he was howling so fiercely—now he’s been made so miserable by Iran.

Last night at 2:36 a.m., Trump said the war would end after the midterm elections, and negotiations are still possible! No reaction from the big talk at all—the market kept dropping; he “taco’d” it—no power left, just like the result I predicted in advance.

This mainly comes down to two things. First, the war situation has changed: Iran is taking a defensive-for-offense approach, hitting the U.S. aircraft carrier; Russia is openly supporting it, and Pakistan is also backing it. Behind Pakistan, who’s really there—everyone knows. Trump can talk tough all he wants, but in the face of facts he has to bow his head. With no money and no missiles—that’s the truth. People aren’t stupid: he can shout fiercely for a while, but he can’t keep it up forever. In the end, everyone will be able to see it.

Second, the principle of the Chinese ancestors for thousands of years: a dog that bites doesn’t bark. If Trump wants to erase Iran’s civilization and flatten its infrastructure—like MacArthur’s “Christmas” operation in Korea—only for the Changjin Lake battle to flip him. The louder he howls, the more it shows he’s afraid. Look at the photo of the Ford sailing to Thailand: the aircraft carrier looks like a ghost ship—it's also a snapshot of the whole U.S.!

The U.S. will repurchase $6 billion in government bonds—then let’s see whether the big talk falls as predicted.

Flop Labs unveils the latest tokenomics draft: no VC, no presale, with a total supply of 18.1 billion tokens in year 10

Check out this FLOP coin—if you can eat it, go ahead and take a bite.

Sun Peng, Xiao Yu, Zhongnan, Geng Xin, the squid, Xiao Cui, Old Zhang, plus me—eight people in total. The office hasn’t been this lively in a long time.

We all share our experiences and gains and losses in doing trades, and this makes a huge difference for everyone’s improvement. In the middle of it, I even video-called Guo Xiaobai. Everyone keeps asking, “When is Sister Guo coming back to Chongqing?” I saw Guo Xiaobai looking so exhilarated, as if she were happy like she’d just made 1 billion in earnings.

During the training, I had one realization: when you’re still a beginner—when you’re Xiao Bai—you know nothing. Either you revere the market blindly or you’re blissfully fearless because you don’t know any better, and you charge in very aggressively. After learning, though, you’ll fall into a period of confusion for a while. Before, you couldn’t read it; later, you could see it, but you still couldn’t read it correctly. Then it becomes a constant tug-of-war between your left and right brains. For example, if you look at the daily chart and it suggests price should rise, the 4-hour chart shows it should fall, the 1-hour chart also shows it should fall, and the 5-minute chart suggests it should rise—so is it going to rise or fall? Even though it’s clearly supposed to fall, the students on-site might notice that the coach is buying spot right there.

This is exactly the big gap between “knowing” and “being able to use it when it matters.” It’s a gap I’ve always emphasized how important practice is for. Practice isn’t about making students money; it’s about bridging that gap.

There are more than a hundred indicators. Some point downward, some point upward—who should you believe? With all kinds of pattern theories, you’ll get different conclusions. What do you do then? That’s also why you see so much disagreement between the bulls and the bears.

To solve this, you need to clearly define the trend timeframe: analyze the analysis cycle and the trading cycle, and then step-by-step work through to your conclusion. At the same time, you also need to pay attention to the macro side—connect the data—review the trading conditions and the emotional/market sentiment. And throughout continual practice, you verify whether the theory is correct, then adjust according to real-world situations.

On September 9, Strategy released a pair of Bitcoin-themed Air Jordan 1 sneakers priced at $250, but its official website checkout only supports bank cards and Apple Pay, not Bitcoin payments.

MicroStrategy has started doing side hustles—it’s starting to buy shoes. But I think $250 is too expensive. If this were 10 to 20 years ago, I’d think it was cheap. Back then, it was generally around that price. Now that China’s manufacturing has picked up, $250 feels expensive to me instead.

I think this is a bad sign. MicroStrategy is starting to get into side businesses. If it were 250 RMB, I could consider buying a pair to wear.

Soon, the U.S. Treasury will implement a U.S. Treasury bond repo—this time with increased力度. We mentioned before that Treasury bond repos would use TGA, and as a bonus, we'd test the trainees in the office.

When the U.S. Treasury makes this move, everyone basically knows whether the big picture means it will rise or fall—it’s basically going to drop. Because this action will drain liquidity from the crypto market.

Looks like the lessons have been useful. Whether this specific conclusion is correct or not, I don’t know—I can only wait for time to verify it. Anyway, holding the short position is fine while waiting.

$BTC

Tonight at 9:00 PM live stream content is as follows:
1. Analysis of the large coin’s trend and future outlook
2. The past and present of the Robinhood exchange, the rise of public chains, and the story behind the phenomenon-level surge of the corresponding meme coins.
3. A preview of the CPI and the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes
4. The difference between trading and investing—how to position yourself to achieve stable profitability
5. Major taboos in trading

If there’s anything else that fellow coin enthusiasts need to consult or understand, feel free to leave a message in the comments.

【BTB Investment & Research】: Be a guide in the crypto world
【Four No’s】: No pump-and-dump calls, no guiding trades, no referral commissions, no teaching contracts
【Coach Love】Binance Growth Companion Official: Live stream every Tuesday and Saturday at 9:00 PM
@Richard Teng @Yi He @CZ

Recently, the meme coins that have been getting hot after going live are Robinhood chain’s meme coins—pons and cashcat are both phenomena. You can just play around with this kind of coin; basically, it’s mostly a one-wave run. But their activity brings liquidity to ARB, helping ARB start its uptrend again.

At the same time, after BSC went live, there were also 4stock and bnc4, and they’ve been doing pretty well too. This is also why BNB suddenly started pumping on its own. Their narrative is linked to stocks in the US stock market. When you buy the coin, the project team goes and buys the corresponding stock. It looks more trustworthy than what people usually see in the crypto space. But you should dig deeper and check two things. First, what intermediaries they use to buy the stocks, and whether the storage address is real. Second, how the underlying stock is actually growing—if it’s good, you can hold; if it’s a trash stock, then you need to be careful.

The upcoming meme coin from former U.S. President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, LAPTOP

Starting with Trump’s coin, now Biden’s kid is also launching coins—does this mean the Democrats will win the midterm elections?

Issuing coins has no cost. One Trump coin wiped out $50 billion in liquidity in the crypto coin space—so, does that suggest celebrity coins are about to explode, with all kinds of celebrities coming to launch coins?

Since this is out anyway and not necessarily a bad thing, start by riding the initial wave—just like when the Trump coin came out. Make money and then leave; don’t be greedy. For reference, look at the trend of the Trump coin.

Then as more and more celebrities issue coins over time—just like inscriptions back then—it will eventually become widespread and oversaturated. In any case, just don’t be the last person holding the bag. The probability of making money by entering early is very high.

The live stream scheduled for this Saturday at 9:00 PM has been postponed to Sunday at 9:00 PM. The live stream on Tuesday at 9:00 PM will proceed as normal.

On Saturday night, friends invited me to a meal. I was worried that I’d have too much going on, so I arranged it in advance today. Since I really can’t turn it down, and a group of people have brought their wives and husbands along, I also don’t want to, because of the live stream, notify them one by one again to change the time.

Think about it—there isn’t really much going on on Saturday either. There are no orders I can place, so I’ll postpone it to Sunday at 9:00 PM. It’s also suitable to analyze next week’s market on Sunday.

Going forward, we’ll still keep the live streams on Tuesday and Saturday at 9:00 PM. Hope everyone in the crypto community understands.

The market is closed tonight and there isn’t much action either. If there is any movement, it’ll likely be Bitcoin dipping downward, while the big players will try to push the price upward to sweep liquidity.

Go wash up and get some sleep early—fight again tomorrow!

Chongqing Santuo Yī—go down, climb back up. It’s been so long since I climbed this long!

The old-style Chongqing hotpot is still so comfortable!

Cui came to Chongqing. I was busy learning and didn’t get out to look around, either. Zhongnan said he’d take Cui out to tour the city, so I tagged along and went back once more to the place I grew up when I was little.

I have to say, Chongqing really is magical—beautiful in its layout and design—nestled among mountains and beside water, truly a land blessed with excellent feng shui.

The non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate on Friday were clearly bullish, yet Bitcoin still fell, which makes no sense at all. Over the weekend I spent time carefully analyzing the data, the behavior models of Trump, Bessent, and Warsh, as well as the Fed’s data. I found the reason.

Everyone thinks the data is good, the probability of a rate hike is high, and therefore prices should fall, but that cannot explain why in 2023 there was also a rate hike and prices went up. Trump wants the midterm elections, and he is still fighting Iran to keep oil prices high and push up inflation. Could it be that Trump is not worried? Also, Bessent wants Japan to raise rates to save himself, but does not allow selling U.S. Treasuries. Now all signs point to the Fed raising rates, U.S. Treasury interest costs will be pushed higher, the difficulty of U.S. debt issuance will increase, AI debt financing will compete with the Treasury for money. A rate hike will bring liquidity contraction. Everything points to a drop. But Trump seems very calm; otherwise he would not keep going after Iran and pushing up oil prices, making himself passive.

In the future, it is very likely that rates will be raised while Warsh, who has long opposed reserve balances, basically the money commercial banks keep at the Fed to earn interest. The Fed has been losing money for a long time, probably around 3 trillion dollars. If this money is gradually returned and then rates are hiked, on the surface the dollar becomes more expensive, but liquidity becomes ample. This can both solve the financing problems of AI and the Treasury, and push stock prices higher to help Trump with the midterm elections, while also completing the return of the dollar through rate hikes. This can explain the previously unreasonable phenomena.

What impact will this have on the crypto market? If my prediction is correct, then next, before the ICP data is released, Bitcoin will pull back to around 750. Then ICP will get a bullish catalyst and break above 830. After the Fed raises rates, Bitcoin will fall back into the 730-670 range. As subsequent easing comes in, Bitcoin will surge all the way toward around 100,000.

As for whether this is right or not, time will verify it. I analyzed all this mainly to prepare for my own future trades. The purpose of analysis is trading, and the purpose of trading is to make a living.

So I think that whether it is Bitcoin or altcoins, missing out is not the point. When Bitcoin gets into the 730-670 range, that is the opportunity to get in. During this period, keep a close eye on the altcoins you like. Once Bitcoin reaches the target, go long on Bitcoin, and also buy the altcoins you believe in!