Jealousy尼卡

#币安钱包
The on-chain IPO of Binance Wallet’s partnership with Pancake is coming. Supposedly, one of the projects will be @Polymarket .

In China, people care a lot about a good start. I believe that even if the first IPO isn’t @Polymarket , it will still leave everyone well-fed.

I studied the Pre-Access document details carefully. Allocation is based on three dimensions:
1. Alpha points.
2. Trencher badges.
3. bStock on-chain level.

In general, the higher the Alpha points and bStocks on-chain level, the higher the allocation. Holding a Trencher badge provides additional allocation. Trencher badges and bStock on-chain levels should both be related to the corresponding target’s trading volume—higher volume means a higher level.

Finally, if the first IPO really is @Polymarket , then the people who have been farming PM airdrops will be disappointed. Luckily, I stopped doing weekly active tasks in April and monthly active tasks in June—pretty timely damage control. Honestly, when it comes to predicted-market airdrops, I only think highly of two Binance Wallet projects: one is @predictdotfun , and the other is @42space . The rest really don’t need to be farmed.

$ENA It’s rising so well—I’m very happy. But all over the internet everyone is going long, and that makes me really scared. Even @CryptoHayes is calling trades.

I feel like every time he calls trades, it’s almost at the top....

I want to get out—what should I do? Should I sell half first?

#ena

I’m dying laughing

Trump: Whoever dares to affect my stock price before the midterm election is my enemy. They must be dealt with. This time, we’re using you three as the sacrificial flags.

Master, I got it—this is just like gambling.

Beginner: Can I make money today depends on whether my luck is good.
Intermediate: I’m skilled, and with a bit of luck I can win.
Expert: As long as I cheat, luck and skill don’t matter.

You think everyone is playing within the rules. But the rules only limit you.

Why was he able to become a gambling god? It wasn’t luck or skill—it was the art of cheating.

A “mouse” position is the cheating technique used in crypto trading.

Starting from August, the crypto market has felt like three different lines. If you haven’t made any money from all of them, you really need to check your circle and your information sources:

1. The MEME season. This includes on-chain opportunities and opportunities on exchanges. On-chain, it mainly started with RH from August, represented by $AI and $CASHCAT . There are also launch platforms like $PONS , and many of the later clones’ mechanics and玩法 were learned from it. After RH, the shitcoin-on-chain boom spread to SOL and BSC, represented by $STONK $MARSCOIN $牛来, etc.

2. The old fake-tokens season. RH kicked off the rallies in $UNI and $ARB, and I’ve already written about the logic earlier. There’s also the expectation of a spot ETF for $ZEC that drove the price up. I don’t know whether this wave can also pull a privacy-coin rally—I've noticed that today $ZAMA is also doing well. Other coins like $ENA, $INJ, and $PENDLE are also up nicely.

3. The NFT season. Both RH and ETH have been extremely hot, with brand-new NFT projects seeing big price increases. Just to name a few: Argonauts, @OriginalBlokyz, @RareFriendsNFT. Over the past couple of days, NFT hype has started shifting toward the ZEC chain. Yesterday, @zksnarks_ had an auction with nearly 20 million in funding involved, and the final sale price actually reached over $2,000. In the past few days, a lot of ZEC-chain projects have popped up as well, such as @zaddrnet, @zecfrogs, and @BITFOOTS_, with so many people competing and grinding. Besides projects on the ZEC chain, there are also a few hot RH-chain projects, such as
@YieldFields_RH.

No, big bro—what are you thinking?

One moment there’s no platform token, the next it’ll support token holders. Give us a clear answer—guys, are we holding or selling?

This candlestick chart is about like an elevator—straight up and straight down...

@minarafun $minara

Damn, that’s racial discrimination! 🥲🥲🥲

Below is ARC’s team group photo—looks like the volume of embedded documents is indeed high.

Those filthy dogs above ARC are completely unplayable now...

Good news for @RobinhoodApp and $PONS !

#ARC 上面的土狗P了一天亏了200u，有以下几个感想：

1. The volume/market momentum can’t compare to RH
2. Not a single launch platform has really taken off—most anticipated is @minarafun. (Its parent company, Minara, is invested in by CRCL, so it’s basically ARC’s own kid.) It pumped to 5m and then started dropping; it’s still only at 2m. Peach also looks pretty good, but there’s no officially Verified token—most of it is just people trying to scam hookups.
3. Tonight, see if foreigners can pull up a big moneymaking memecoin. If there isn’t a big one, ARC’s ceiling will never be opened; or hopefully $ARGUS can keep going up.
4. Right now, the biggest winner in arc is still $UNI . Even without a big moneymaker, the fees are still insanely high.

#美联储加息是否已成定局

The worst thing still happened: the CLEAR Act failed to pass + rate hike

Next, the market is going to adjust. $BTC

The industry outlook for #光通信 can still be seen at least through 2027—2029.

1. At present, 1.6T and 800G remain the core sources of incremental growth. In 2027, the 1.6T order volume is expected to more than double compared with 2026, and 800G is expected to increase by at least twofold. By 2028, with the ramp-up of 2.4T, more CSP adopting 1.6T, and the new demand driven by CPO, momentum for growth will take over. Meanwhile, 800G will gradually be replaced by 1.6T. Single-wave 400G technology is expected to mature in 2028—2029, which will further drive bandwidth upgrades.

2. On the technology roadmap, one important judgment is that CPO will not quickly fully replace pluggable optics. Pluggable, NPO, and CPO will coexist for a long time. Pluggable optics still have a long lifecycle in scale-out scenarios. NPO is also not a short-term transitional product; the second and third generations will evolve toward 2.5D and 3D packaging, and are expected to begin deployment in the second half of 2027. CPO offers better performance, but it is currently still facing issues such as reliability, maintainability, cost, and the maturity of the industrial supply chain. Truly large-scale adoption is expected to come after 2030.

3. The supply chain remains an important bottleneck for the industry. Especially for key components such as 1.6T DFB and DSP in 2026—2027, companies can lock in production capacity in advance through methods like advance payments, long-term agreements, and strategic investments. However, as demand continues to grow steadily, the tight supply situation will be difficult to fully relieve in the short term.

4. Competitive barriers are also higher than the market might think. Optical modules are not simply a “assembly business.” There are technology hurdles across areas such as silicon photonics, thin-film lithium niobate, coherent technology, high-frequency circuits, and advanced packaging. At the same time, customer certification cycles are long and the number of suppliers is limited, forming strong customer barriers.

In the end, technology, customer, and supply-chain barriers still give leading manufacturers an advantage. Besides some U.S.-listed blue-chip leaders, I believe the above logic also applies to the “A-share” market.

$LITEB $COHRB $FN.US

Has the market for $牛来 ended?

I think it’s come to a close—what do you think?

#Robinhood
Robinhood Gas revenue has dropped by more than 82% from its peak. On September 4th there was still 6 million in revenue, but yesterday it was only 940,000.

But there’s something interesting: trading activity has decreased, yet TVL hasn’t gone down. Currently, RH still has 900 million in TVL. This figure was 830 million on September 4th.

So it’s not that everyone has already withdrawn their money from RH and stopped playing on this chain. Rather, the market conditions are not good right now, so people are temporarily not participating in trades.

Of course, the ones who are likely most hurt here are
$PONS and $UNI , because with trading activity dropping, these two protocols face the biggest impact. Revenue for the platform of $PONS fell from 9 million to 6 million, and the coin price also dropped from nearly 1 billion to 600 million.

Personally, I believe that the market situation on RH won’t end in the short term. This is a normal tide—when you press the spring down, it’s to make it rebound better. In addition, RWA is the next big narrative for the bull market, and RH has a natural advantage in this area.

The last payment from the “old version” salary has arrived.

The next salary for the new version will be paid on September 25.

An old era is moving farther away from us, and a new era has already arrived.

$牛来 This place is really a bit bad—it's up or down by 50% at the drop of a hat. It’s really driving retail investors crazy.

#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息

This CPI today might be the most important piece of information for September.

Recently, market expectations for the Fed to hike in September have clearly heated up. After yesterday’s PPI was released, the probability of a rate hike briefly climbed to around 70%.

But I think it’s still a bit early to simply bet on a “must-have rate hike.”

At the moment, the market expects August CPI to rise 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year. What really needs to be watched, though, is whether core CPI comes in meaningfully above expectations.

My view is fairly straightforward: if core CPI is ≤ 0.2%, especially if it falls below expectations, the market may breathe easier. Expectations for a September rate hike could cool down, and both tech stocks and gold could have a chance to rebound.

If core CPI comes in at 0.3%, that would be more troublesome. Given the currently stronger employment data, the PPI, and energy prices, the Fed’s rationale for hiking would become much more abundant.

If it jumps straight to 0.4% or even higher, the market may have to reprice rates again.

What’s particularly interesting right now is that the market has already priced in part of the “rate-hike expectations” in advance. So instead of focusing on whether there will be a hike, I actually think the key question is:
Will the CPI be worse than what the market is expecting?
If it just matches expectations, it may not continue falling further;
if it comes in clearly below expectations, it could even become a short-term positive catalyst.
The real danger is if CPI once again exceeds expectations.

So for this CPI, I’m leaning toward: don’t guess before the data comes out; after it comes out, look at how the market trades it. After all, the market is currently least lacking in forecasts—what usually makes money is waiting for clearer confirmation before making a judgment.

What do you think?

Everyone is about to run away, yet Hunter Biden is still comforting the “grassroots investors”: “I’ll cherish your money. All of this counts as your political donations to me. Once I get elected president, I’ll give everyone a big villa!”

$laptop has already plunged from a market value of 1000B to 0.7B. What surprises me is that it still has 0.7B left. This thing is destined to go to zero sooner or later.

What’s most amazing is that some people still want to profit while standing in the fire, betting on a rebound. Brothers, we can have the ambition to get rich—but you should also look at whose “board” you’re trading on. The other side is Hunter Biden…

Treating $LAPTOP as a “carpenter’s rule for cutting boats” by equating it to $TRUMP is a bit too wishful on one’s own.

Buying $TRUMP on the first day puts you on the road to financial freedom.

Buying $LAPTOP on the first day puts you on the road to financial zero.

So many familiar faces when you look at it at a glance—does everyone really not know what kind of person Hunter Biden is? And you still want to make money from the chart he posted?

This chart has surged as high as a $1,000B market cap before; those who managed to get it at that position are blessed—no matter if the Earth is destroyed, you still won’t be able to break even.

The market cap is still steadily dropping. Right now it’s 19B, but 19B is already outrageous. You have to know that the total market cap of $UNI is only 5B…

The son of a former president with a notorious track record—also a criminal who committed serious crimes and relied on a pardon from his father (if you’re interested, you can go look up the details). Yet in crypto, he posts a chart and people still rush in and send money. I can only say, the people in crypto are really… loaded 🥸🥸🥸

#Laptop

What is influence? This is influence!

1. @Yi He “Sister” cancels the follow of @Four_FORM_, and $4stock suddenly crashes from 0.045 to 0.032—dropping its market cap directly by 30%.
2. @Yi He “Sister” follows @fourdotmemezh’s Chinese account again, and $4STOCK is pulled back to 0.045.

One unfollow and one follow cause the related token to fluctuate by 60%. You have to know: $4STOCK is a token with a 45M market cap—its 60% is close to 30M. Of course, meme liquidity isn’t that strong; to dump 30% and pump 30% doesn’t really require 15M worth of capital, but it’s still terrifying.

In the end, looks like “Sister” still prefers Chinese accounts—Chinese memes still have a lot of room to grow? $Bull Come, today it’s back to 110M again.

$牛来 regained a market value of 110 million; this thing is really volatile—daily swings of 50% up and down are very normal.

Also, the fact that it can bounce back again suggests that the meme market is still active.