◢ Re-poster

🛢️ The oil buffer is getting thin.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is down to around 285 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1984.

The Energy Department said the SPR's minimum inventory is determined by "cavern mechanics," which @MorganStanley says translates to a conservative operational minimum of about 70 million barrels.

Morgan Stanley estimates monthly U.S. crude oil use at around 520 million barrels.

A monthly SPR drawdown of 30 million barrels accounts for only about 6% of U.S. crude oil use.

Financial conditions actually eased by about an 8bp cut after the September rate hike.

Odds of a one-and-done hike are lower given looser financial conditions after the first rate hike.

@WolfeResearch sees $30-$50B revenue opportunity for $META from Muse agent launch

• Meta launched Muse on September 8 and it rattled a chunk of the internet sector immediately
• $EXPE fell 5.4%, $BKNG dropped 9.0%, $DASH slid 3.5%, $SHOP lost 8.9%

$SPX 25-delta put IV to 25-delta call IV at a constant 30-day maturity (skew) has plunged today.

$SPX up
$VIX up

Spot up.
Vol up.

We’re all gonna die.

AI doom searches shifted from SaaSpocalypse to jobs to extinction in 2026

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Google Trends data shows AI-related search interest in 2026 has rotated through three distinct fear cycles:

First, the "SaaSpocalypse" (AI kills software businesses)…

…then jobs displacement

…and now outright extinction risk.

@DeutscheBank charted this shift globally, indexed against each topic's peak of 100%, year-to-date.

@UBS cuts $KOSPI ( $EWY ) 12-month target by nearly 10% to 8000 as macro headwinds worsen

The revision lowers UBS’s implied target P/E to 7x from 8x, reflecting deteriorating macro headwinds even as UBS still forecasts robust KOSPI EPS growth of 256% in 2026 and 38% in 2027.

Key drivers cited: the 10-year Korean government bond yield has risen to 4.5% from 3.4% at the start of the year (≈+110bps), the Bank of Korea has raised rates twice since July, oil is trading above $100, and a stronger won is also a drag.

@MorganStanley says that sentiment is subdued as their Global Risk Demand index hits fear signal.

Tough to see a market top with sentiment in the gutter.

Prediction odds have shifted in favor of Bolsonaro and against Lula.

That has been reflected in $EWZ performance and stronger call volumes. GS positioning metrics show a material rebuild in long-BRL exposure.

Call/Put open interest has risen materially in line with recent spot moves and now sits near historical highs.

On the vol surface: the BRL surface is heavily skewed toward $USDBRL puts, with the risk reversal trading at its lowest level since 2020.

The event continues to command a hefty vol premium, broadly in line with the highest weights seen in prior election cycles. But USD call skew has recently collapsed.

When the broad basket is bleeding harder than the low-income tape, the "resilient consumer" narrative is quietly getting repriced.

BofA's chart title is blunt: hyperscalers went from buying back ~$160bn/year, peak in 2022, to being net share issuers.

6-month average pairwise correlations are at multi-year lows across major equity markets

Correlation is the market structure tell.

Goldman says stock correlations are at multi-year lows across the major equity markets, using 6-month average pairwise correlation.

They say correlations have fallen sharply within Technology too.

That means index-level strength can hide a lot more single-stock dispersion.

If valuations are not likely to rise, Goldman says earnings become the critical driver of returns (duh).

Industrials PE is close to the 90th percentile of its 20-year range while Technology is below its 20-year median

AI capex is changing who gets the multiple.

Goldman says globally technology has seen its PE ratio moderate, falling below its 20-year median.

At the same time, AI spending has spilled over into better earnings and more visible cash flows elsewhere.

Industrials has re-rated and now has a PE close to the 90th percentile of its 20-year range.

Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials are all more expensive in absolute terms than IT.

AI still matters, but the market is capitalizing the beneficiaries outside Technology more aggressively.

SpaceX $SPCX has been assigned a 2.82% weight in the Nasdaq-100 in this index rebalance.

The fine tuning, small-language model services for https://radon.run has finally begun.

The U.S. Army tests a cheap missile made to intercept drones built by @PerseusDefense 🚀

https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-tests-a-cheap-missile-made-to-intercept-drones/

About an incoming vol event…

Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate his war against Ukraine and intensify hybrid attacks on Kyiv’s allies in Europe.

— @Telegraph

If capex were fully expensed, consensus 2027 S&P 500 EPS would be 22% lower than under current accounting rules.

Kylian Mbappe ends long-term $NKE partnership to become the face of $ONON's soccer

$VXN, the VIX for the NASDAQ, just printed its lowest value since January 15 2026.

Another one. 🏌🏼‍♂️

@shieldaitech in Talks for Valuation of at Least $20 Billion

http://theinformation.com/articles/defense-startup-shield-ai-talks-valuation-least-20-billion?utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=bluesky,facebook,instagram,linkedin,threads,twitter