Den Robin

Arguments in favor of the supercycle:
1) Trump was president when the first alt season happened, and at that time, on the contrary, interest rates were being raised.
2) A big beautiful law increased the national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, easing measures for people and small businesses (i.e., retail which will start to have extra money due to tax relief), a money deficit will appear because of this, forcing the Fed to print a lot of money, the dollar will start to fall, people will begin to look for instruments where they can earn more than bank deposits (about $15 trillion is sitting in deposits, and why keep them if they are losing value), and then point 3 comes into play.

Colleagues, I think that the alt-season will start in July. There are many prerequisites for this. I will start with my reasons for thinking this, but of course I could be wrong. Firstly, people have money, the m2 of America has hit a new ATH, while the DXY is falling, a cheap dollar. Trump needs a printing press, and the debt has already hit the ceiling; if the policy is softened, the ceiling can be moved, and interest rates will also be lowered due to the approaching signs of recession, so the printing press will be turned on, the interest rate will decrease, and the debt can be repaid cheaper, which is what Trump needs. I consider all this fuss with Elon to be another manipulation to increase volatility in the market, as well as to buy Tesla shares cheaper, possibly for Musk himself, since he has lost a lot of money in these six months, and this way he can buy back his shares cheaper. Today they will say we reconciled, I return the mandate, I do not remove subsidies, Tesla will fly up again, that is the opinion since they are already planning to reconcile today. Also, dominance, it used to grow crazily up, but in May it fell, and now it grows back and forth in a bearish pattern. In June, there will be a decision on rates, the chance that they will be lowered is small, and in July, if I remember correctly, there is already a 40% chance that they will lower them, and if bad data for May comes out, the Fed should intervene and lower the rate, and the chances can grow even more. The recent update of the spectrum on Ethereum, which increased the amount of Ethereum for staking, and recently the SEC approved staking, and in July a decision on Ethereum ETF staking is scheduled. BlackRock sells Bitcoin and buys Ethereum. Ethereum/BTC holds well, the amount of Ethereum on exchanges has fallen to the lows of 2016, trading volumes for altcoins are rising, spikes in new and individual cryptocurrencies that make several X's in a week (investors have started to take risks gradually. Regarding the fact that investors have started to take risks, spikes are going on gradually, new coins like BoB or whatever it is, made X's, and from there it will start gradually coming out in the media, crypto gives X's, retail will start coming in), the amount of Bitcoin is also decreasing every day and reaching lows, and also the recent notification from the hash ribbons indicator to buy, and as you all know, after such a notification, there has always been a correction, and then good growth. In general, there are a lot of prerequisites.