得鹿梦鱼Delu
65 Posts
得鹿梦鱼Delu
海外AI / Crypto / 科技信息 /投资思考
Occasional Trader
4.6 Years
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Life is the prelude where you push your own past forward and that of others; the torrent of the times presses everyone to make their own choices.
The explosive rise of AI accelerates many industries into what feels like the end days of their life cycles, while also giving birth to many opportunities.
In our country, the news about rocket recovery has a higher priority than the news of Unitree Technology’s listing—we must schedule it for the first release.
In the future, with progress measured in 100-year increments, the Earth Online game will have only two main storylines:
1) In the virtual world, realize the industrialization of spiritual eternal life—corresponding to AI.
2) In the real world, make the routine exploration of space planet resources normal—corresponding to starships.
Achieving immortal, immortal-like longevity in the virtual world, and taking space-courvature interstellar travel tourism in the real universe—these are the most distinctive life experiences for humankind in this era.
The explosive rise of AI accelerates many industries into what feels like the end days of their life cycles, while also giving birth to many opportunities.
In our country, the news about rocket recovery has a higher priority than the news of Unitree Technology’s listing—we must schedule it for the first release.
In the future, with progress measured in 100-year increments, the Earth Online game will have only two main storylines:
1) In the virtual world, realize the industrialization of spiritual eternal life—corresponding to AI.
2) In the real world, make the routine exploration of space planet resources normal—corresponding to starships.
Achieving immortal, immortal-like longevity in the virtual world, and taking space-courvature interstellar travel tourism in the real universe—these are the most distinctive life experiences for humankind in this era.
Yushu Firefighting Robot
Born to serve people—risking life in the heat of battle
Born to serve people—risking life in the heat of battle
What is the essence of being human? What are the only five types of professions in the world?
What is the “doomsday” of the President of South Korea? Why are speculative trades so prevalent in South Korea?
Art comes from life.
In the scene of the South Korean National Assembly, chaos reigns—everyone is shouting “invalid!” and “resign!”
Speaker U Won-sik keeps his eyes shut and remains unmoved.
People Party leader Lee Jae-myung walks calmly toward the ballot box.
Someone remarks that what South Korea is doing is just like making a movie—the camera work is so well-framed,
and they even joke that South Korea should apply for UNESCO world heritage status for its acting and filming techniques.
No wonder it’s a country where speculative trading runs rampant.
Art comes from life.
In the scene of the South Korean National Assembly, chaos reigns—everyone is shouting “invalid!” and “resign!”
Speaker U Won-sik keeps his eyes shut and remains unmoved.
People Party leader Lee Jae-myung walks calmly toward the ballot box.
Someone remarks that what South Korea is doing is just like making a movie—the camera work is so well-framed,
and they even joke that South Korea should apply for UNESCO world heritage status for its acting and filming techniques.
No wonder it’s a country where speculative trading runs rampant.
How to reinvent yourself?
When you don’t have a say, even telling the truth sounds like nitpicking.
When you do have a say, even saying nonsense sounds like deep philosophy.
This world talks about strength, connections, and benefits—never about reason.
Obsessing over getting other people’s approval is a subtle form of self-violence.
If nobody sends you flowers, then go buy them yourself.
Buying flowers is a small act of independence.
And independence is a revolution.
When you don’t have a say, even telling the truth sounds like nitpicking.
When you do have a say, even saying nonsense sounds like deep philosophy.
This world talks about strength, connections, and benefits—never about reason.
Obsessing over getting other people’s approval is a subtle form of self-violence.
If nobody sends you flowers, then go buy them yourself.
Buying flowers is a small act of independence.
And independence is a revolution.
How to Save Unitree Technology's Stock Price?
For forty years, public and Hou; even if it is only a dream, it is still charming
Xu Lang’s marvelous tactics—what can be done with a city emptied of men? How could the dazzling plan fail?
Xu Lang’s marvelous tactics—what can be done with a city emptied of men? How could the dazzling plan fail?
When can you “buy the dip” on property?
While “Golden September and Silver October” hasn’t arrived for housing prices, “a weakening on a month-over-month basis” has come first.
The 70-city second-hand home data released by the NBS in July shows that the number of cities with month-over-month price increases has dropped to only 8, down from 10 in June—a further decrease of 2. This year’s monthly peak was in March, when 17 cities were up; after that, the figures kept shrinking—16, 13, 10, 8. The group of cities seeing increases is continuously disintegrating, while cities with declines are becoming more and more concentrated.
In first-tier cities, the adjustment appears to be more resilient than in others. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have managed to keep their month-over-month growth above 100 for consecutive months, which forms a stark contrast to the persistent weakening in second- and third-tier cities.
That said, second- and third-tier cities are also showing some changes: the magnitude of the decline is actually narrowing. In many cities, month-over-month drops have already converged to within -1%. Cities with prices in the “high 90s” (i.e., 98.x and below) haven’t been seen for a while. To put it in one sentence: “The fall is slower now, but it’s still falling.”
The issue is that a slow decline is still exhausting. At present, mortgage rates are roughly around 3%, while the annualized rental-to-sales ratio for residential properties generally fails to reach 2%. This math, by itself, creates negative cash flow. Even if prices only fall three or five percentage points each year, when you stack that with holding costs, the experience still isn’t easy.
When this “pool of housing prices” will warm back up depends, to some extent, on when consumer demand truly picks up. Logically, these two things are tied together—so the consumer sector may not look particularly optimistic in the near term.
My personal view: internally, it comes down to the rental-to-sales ratio, which we’ve already discussed, and to existing (stock) capital. Externally, it depends on when Hong Kong can become Asia’s economic hub, so that Asian conglomerate funds can radiate from Hong Kong into the mainland. It’s a long road. For conglomerates, Singapore, Seoul, and Tokyo are also options under consideration. Let’s look at the economic situation in 2028.
While “Golden September and Silver October” hasn’t arrived for housing prices, “a weakening on a month-over-month basis” has come first.
The 70-city second-hand home data released by the NBS in July shows that the number of cities with month-over-month price increases has dropped to only 8, down from 10 in June—a further decrease of 2. This year’s monthly peak was in March, when 17 cities were up; after that, the figures kept shrinking—16, 13, 10, 8. The group of cities seeing increases is continuously disintegrating, while cities with declines are becoming more and more concentrated.
In first-tier cities, the adjustment appears to be more resilient than in others. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have managed to keep their month-over-month growth above 100 for consecutive months, which forms a stark contrast to the persistent weakening in second- and third-tier cities.
That said, second- and third-tier cities are also showing some changes: the magnitude of the decline is actually narrowing. In many cities, month-over-month drops have already converged to within -1%. Cities with prices in the “high 90s” (i.e., 98.x and below) haven’t been seen for a while. To put it in one sentence: “The fall is slower now, but it’s still falling.”
The issue is that a slow decline is still exhausting. At present, mortgage rates are roughly around 3%, while the annualized rental-to-sales ratio for residential properties generally fails to reach 2%. This math, by itself, creates negative cash flow. Even if prices only fall three or five percentage points each year, when you stack that with holding costs, the experience still isn’t easy.
When this “pool of housing prices” will warm back up depends, to some extent, on when consumer demand truly picks up. Logically, these two things are tied together—so the consumer sector may not look particularly optimistic in the near term.
My personal view: internally, it comes down to the rental-to-sales ratio, which we’ve already discussed, and to existing (stock) capital. Externally, it depends on when Hong Kong can become Asia’s economic hub, so that Asian conglomerate funds can radiate from Hong Kong into the mainland. It’s a long road. For conglomerates, Singapore, Seoul, and Tokyo are also options under consideration. Let’s look at the economic situation in 2028.
Investment Explosion, a Billion-yuan Bet—In essence, Moutai clashes with tech stocks
Duang Yongping dares to bet 100 million yuan on Moutai, but Bian Zhuo didn’t take the deal.
Duang Yongping’s logic is simple:
Moutai is one of China’s best companies—worth holding long term, even if it means risking 100 million yuan to compete with domestic funds on returns.
But Bian Zhuo’s view is more interesting:
Moutai is still a core asset, but investing shouldn’t look only at the past.
In the AI era, new high-growth tracks are being created around the world.
Rather than clinging to traditional core assets, it’s better to widen your horizons globally and look for the next batch of companies that truly have long-term growth potential.
So this isn’t a question of whether “Moutai is good or not.”
The times are changing; industries are changing; investors should also continuously break out of their comfort zones.
The real answer may not be whether Moutai can win, but whether you’re willing to back a business you can understand—waiting ten years, whether it’s Moutai or tech stocks.
Time is the friend of great companies and the enemy of mediocre ones. The national team has cast its votes with their feet.
Duang Yongping dares to bet 100 million yuan on Moutai, but Bian Zhuo didn’t take the deal.
Duang Yongping’s logic is simple:
Moutai is one of China’s best companies—worth holding long term, even if it means risking 100 million yuan to compete with domestic funds on returns.
But Bian Zhuo’s view is more interesting:
Moutai is still a core asset, but investing shouldn’t look only at the past.
In the AI era, new high-growth tracks are being created around the world.
Rather than clinging to traditional core assets, it’s better to widen your horizons globally and look for the next batch of companies that truly have long-term growth potential.
So this isn’t a question of whether “Moutai is good or not.”
The times are changing; industries are changing; investors should also continuously break out of their comfort zones.
The real answer may not be whether Moutai can win, but whether you’re willing to back a business you can understand—waiting ten years, whether it’s Moutai or tech stocks.
Time is the friend of great companies and the enemy of mediocre ones. The national team has cast its votes with their feet.
得鹿梦鱼Delu
·
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It’s blown up—what a mess! Profits are sliding, and even the national team has pulled out.
Last night, Kweichow Moutai released its interim report for the first half-year, but the “taste” doesn’t feel right anymore. Overall performance is clearly below expectations.
For the first half-year, revenue was about RMB 90.7 billion, up only 1.47%; non-GAAP net profit was about RMB 44.4 billion, down 2.04% year over year.
If you look only at Q2, the pressure is even more obvious:
Revenue declined about 9.2% year over year; non-GAAP net profit fell about 6.88%. Compared with earlier analyst expectations, it was roughly 10% lower.
This isn’t just a simple “slowdown in growth”—core profits are starting to show negative growth.
But I think within this Moutai report, there are a few changes that are truly worth paying attention to:
First, direct sales are getting stronger, while distributors are getting weaker.
In the first half-year, Moutai’s direct-to-consumer (direct) sales revenue was about RMB 51.9 billion, already accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously, it relied heavily on a large distributor network; now it’s accelerating the shift toward direct operations and the end-user (C-end).
When the industry is booming, the distributor system helps spread the market. But once the industry enters an adjustment period, these middle links turn into costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing, in essence, is reorganizing its sales system.
Second, the cash flow looks almost overly impressive.
Net cash flow from operating activities was about RMB 70.7 billion, up more than 400%.
Cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet have also reached about RMB 184.8 billion.
With still more than RMB 80 billion in earnings in a year, and so much cash sitting there.
My view is simple:
Don’t keep the money idle on the books forever.
Either increase dividends, or repurchase shares—anyway, it should find a way to return real cash to shareholders.
Of course, Moutai’s dividends have never been low over the years, and the core reason is easy to understand: Moutai Group holds about 60% of the shares of the listed company.
The more dividends paid, the more cash the major shareholder receives.
So compared with buybacks, dividends clearly better match the major shareholder’s cash-flow needs.
Third—and this is the one chart I think is most worth noticing— the national team is exiting.
From this list of the top ten tradable shareholders, Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation are no longer appearing.
As for whether they’ve fully cleared their positions or the exact path of the reduction, it still needs confirmation with the complete holdings data.
But at least from the shareholder structure, the signal is already very clear:
Moutai is going through a comprehensive round of changes—across channels, profits, and even the shareholder structure.
Last night, Kweichow Moutai released its interim report for the first half-year, but the “taste” doesn’t feel right anymore. Overall performance is clearly below expectations.
For the first half-year, revenue was about RMB 90.7 billion, up only 1.47%; non-GAAP net profit was about RMB 44.4 billion, down 2.04% year over year.
If you look only at Q2, the pressure is even more obvious:
Revenue declined about 9.2% year over year; non-GAAP net profit fell about 6.88%. Compared with earlier analyst expectations, it was roughly 10% lower.
This isn’t just a simple “slowdown in growth”—core profits are starting to show negative growth.
But I think within this Moutai report, there are a few changes that are truly worth paying attention to:
First, direct sales are getting stronger, while distributors are getting weaker.
In the first half-year, Moutai’s direct-to-consumer (direct) sales revenue was about RMB 51.9 billion, already accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously, it relied heavily on a large distributor network; now it’s accelerating the shift toward direct operations and the end-user (C-end).
When the industry is booming, the distributor system helps spread the market. But once the industry enters an adjustment period, these middle links turn into costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing, in essence, is reorganizing its sales system.
Second, the cash flow looks almost overly impressive.
Net cash flow from operating activities was about RMB 70.7 billion, up more than 400%.
Cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet have also reached about RMB 184.8 billion.
With still more than RMB 80 billion in earnings in a year, and so much cash sitting there.
My view is simple:
Don’t keep the money idle on the books forever.
Either increase dividends, or repurchase shares—anyway, it should find a way to return real cash to shareholders.
Of course, Moutai’s dividends have never been low over the years, and the core reason is easy to understand: Moutai Group holds about 60% of the shares of the listed company.
The more dividends paid, the more cash the major shareholder receives.
So compared with buybacks, dividends clearly better match the major shareholder’s cash-flow needs.
Third—and this is the one chart I think is most worth noticing— the national team is exiting.
From this list of the top ten tradable shareholders, Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation are no longer appearing.
As for whether they’ve fully cleared their positions or the exact path of the reduction, it still needs confirmation with the complete holdings data.
But at least from the shareholder structure, the signal is already very clear:
Moutai is going through a comprehensive round of changes—across channels, profits, and even the shareholder structure.
It’s blown up—what a mess! Profits are sliding, and even the national team has pulled out.
Last night, Kweichow Moutai released its interim report for the first half-year, but the “taste” doesn’t feel right anymore. Overall performance is clearly below expectations.
For the first half-year, revenue was about RMB 90.7 billion, up only 1.47%; non-GAAP net profit was about RMB 44.4 billion, down 2.04% year over year.
If you look only at Q2, the pressure is even more obvious:
Revenue declined about 9.2% year over year; non-GAAP net profit fell about 6.88%. Compared with earlier analyst expectations, it was roughly 10% lower.
This isn’t just a simple “slowdown in growth”—core profits are starting to show negative growth.
But I think within this Moutai report, there are a few changes that are truly worth paying attention to:
First, direct sales are getting stronger, while distributors are getting weaker.
In the first half-year, Moutai’s direct-to-consumer (direct) sales revenue was about RMB 51.9 billion, already accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously, it relied heavily on a large distributor network; now it’s accelerating the shift toward direct operations and the end-user (C-end).
When the industry is booming, the distributor system helps spread the market. But once the industry enters an adjustment period, these middle links turn into costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing, in essence, is reorganizing its sales system.
Second, the cash flow looks almost overly impressive.
Net cash flow from operating activities was about RMB 70.7 billion, up more than 400%.
Cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet have also reached about RMB 184.8 billion.
With still more than RMB 80 billion in earnings in a year, and so much cash sitting there.
My view is simple:
Don’t keep the money idle on the books forever.
Either increase dividends, or repurchase shares—anyway, it should find a way to return real cash to shareholders.
Of course, Moutai’s dividends have never been low over the years, and the core reason is easy to understand: Moutai Group holds about 60% of the shares of the listed company.
The more dividends paid, the more cash the major shareholder receives.
So compared with buybacks, dividends clearly better match the major shareholder’s cash-flow needs.
Third—and this is the one chart I think is most worth noticing— the national team is exiting.
From this list of the top ten tradable shareholders, Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation are no longer appearing.
As for whether they’ve fully cleared their positions or the exact path of the reduction, it still needs confirmation with the complete holdings data.
But at least from the shareholder structure, the signal is already very clear:
Moutai is going through a comprehensive round of changes—across channels, profits, and even the shareholder structure.
Last night, Kweichow Moutai released its interim report for the first half-year, but the “taste” doesn’t feel right anymore. Overall performance is clearly below expectations.
For the first half-year, revenue was about RMB 90.7 billion, up only 1.47%; non-GAAP net profit was about RMB 44.4 billion, down 2.04% year over year.
If you look only at Q2, the pressure is even more obvious:
Revenue declined about 9.2% year over year; non-GAAP net profit fell about 6.88%. Compared with earlier analyst expectations, it was roughly 10% lower.
This isn’t just a simple “slowdown in growth”—core profits are starting to show negative growth.
But I think within this Moutai report, there are a few changes that are truly worth paying attention to:
First, direct sales are getting stronger, while distributors are getting weaker.
In the first half-year, Moutai’s direct-to-consumer (direct) sales revenue was about RMB 51.9 billion, already accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously, it relied heavily on a large distributor network; now it’s accelerating the shift toward direct operations and the end-user (C-end).
When the industry is booming, the distributor system helps spread the market. But once the industry enters an adjustment period, these middle links turn into costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing, in essence, is reorganizing its sales system.
Second, the cash flow looks almost overly impressive.
Net cash flow from operating activities was about RMB 70.7 billion, up more than 400%.
Cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet have also reached about RMB 184.8 billion.
With still more than RMB 80 billion in earnings in a year, and so much cash sitting there.
My view is simple:
Don’t keep the money idle on the books forever.
Either increase dividends, or repurchase shares—anyway, it should find a way to return real cash to shareholders.
Of course, Moutai’s dividends have never been low over the years, and the core reason is easy to understand: Moutai Group holds about 60% of the shares of the listed company.
The more dividends paid, the more cash the major shareholder receives.
So compared with buybacks, dividends clearly better match the major shareholder’s cash-flow needs.
Third—and this is the one chart I think is most worth noticing— the national team is exiting.
From this list of the top ten tradable shareholders, Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation are no longer appearing.
As for whether they’ve fully cleared their positions or the exact path of the reduction, it still needs confirmation with the complete holdings data.
But at least from the shareholder structure, the signal is already very clear:
Moutai is going through a comprehensive round of changes—across channels, profits, and even the shareholder structure.
How to tell if a boy will have a promising future?
You’ve probably heard of Sequoia Capital. As one of the world’s top venture capital firms, over more than 50 years it has almost “witnessed” and backed every major company of the tech era: from Fairchild Semiconductor and Apple, to Google, WhatsApp, ByteDance, and now OpenAI.
So if you want to study “what kind of people are more likely to achieve success,” Sequoia’s long-standing logic for selecting talent is well worth paying attention to.
I’ve summarized it into a few traits:
First, a strong sense of “insecurity.”
This “insecurity” is closer to the English word desperation—an intense desire to prove oneself.
People like this often haven’t had a smooth ride. They may have experienced setbacks, failures, or long periods of not being recognized, so deep down there’s always a drive:
I need to prove myself. I can do even better.
Doug Leone, Sequoia’s former managing partner, is a typical example. Born to an Italian immigrant family, he came to the United States at age 11. Because he couldn’t speak English, he faced exclusion and bullying.
Such experiences may leave a “gap” in someone’s heart—but they can also be transformed into powerful motivation.
What’s truly frightening isn’t that someone has ambition, but that they have ambition and are also willing to suffer for the long term.
Second, it’s best if a person has some traits that seem “contradictory” at the same time.
Sequoia cares a lot about these combinations:
Aggressive but humble: assertive, yet remain modest
Demanding and supportive: hold yourself and others to a high standard, while being willing to help others
Strong under scrutiny: can stand up to questioning and high-intensity discussions
High give-a-shit, zero bullshit: deeply cares about outcomes, with no nonsense
Truly impressive people are often not outstanding in just one dimension. Instead, they can hold ambition and humility, toughness and kindness, persistence and openness within themselves at the same time.
This reminds me of a line by F. Scott Fitzgerald:
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time and still function.”
Third, whether he is someone who focuses on “Fewer, Better Things.”
Do less, but take what matters most to the absolute extreme.
One of the biggest traps of this era is that there are too many opportunities.
If you want to grab everything and do everything, you often end up not going deep into anything.
You’ve probably heard of Sequoia Capital. As one of the world’s top venture capital firms, over more than 50 years it has almost “witnessed” and backed every major company of the tech era: from Fairchild Semiconductor and Apple, to Google, WhatsApp, ByteDance, and now OpenAI.
So if you want to study “what kind of people are more likely to achieve success,” Sequoia’s long-standing logic for selecting talent is well worth paying attention to.
I’ve summarized it into a few traits:
First, a strong sense of “insecurity.”
This “insecurity” is closer to the English word desperation—an intense desire to prove oneself.
People like this often haven’t had a smooth ride. They may have experienced setbacks, failures, or long periods of not being recognized, so deep down there’s always a drive:
I need to prove myself. I can do even better.
Doug Leone, Sequoia’s former managing partner, is a typical example. Born to an Italian immigrant family, he came to the United States at age 11. Because he couldn’t speak English, he faced exclusion and bullying.
Such experiences may leave a “gap” in someone’s heart—but they can also be transformed into powerful motivation.
What’s truly frightening isn’t that someone has ambition, but that they have ambition and are also willing to suffer for the long term.
Second, it’s best if a person has some traits that seem “contradictory” at the same time.
Sequoia cares a lot about these combinations:
Aggressive but humble: assertive, yet remain modest
Demanding and supportive: hold yourself and others to a high standard, while being willing to help others
Strong under scrutiny: can stand up to questioning and high-intensity discussions
High give-a-shit, zero bullshit: deeply cares about outcomes, with no nonsense
Truly impressive people are often not outstanding in just one dimension. Instead, they can hold ambition and humility, toughness and kindness, persistence and openness within themselves at the same time.
This reminds me of a line by F. Scott Fitzgerald:
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time and still function.”
Third, whether he is someone who focuses on “Fewer, Better Things.”
Do less, but take what matters most to the absolute extreme.
One of the biggest traps of this era is that there are too many opportunities.
If you want to grab everything and do everything, you often end up not going deep into anything.
The 2026 World Robot Conference is about to open, and China’s domestic robot industry chain is coming together for a “grand gathering”
That evil yet all-powerful salted fish has already grabbed an early-bird ticket.
And a Red Sweet Potato (Xiaohongshu) netizen joked: before, I thought robots would explode in five years; after, I think it’ll be ten years.
Below is the overview. Personally, I’m quite looking forward to it.
Time: August 19—August 23
Venue: Beijing Beiren Yichuang International Exhibition Center
This year’s conference brings together many leading companies in China’s embodied intelligence and robotics sectors.
Intelligence Innovation Hall (Hall C)
Companies including Unitree Robotics, Xinghai Tu, UBTECH, Galaxy General, Zibian, Mingshi Technology, VIT.A Power, Zhishen Technology, Cloud Deep, Furier, Youbot, Xian Gong, and CAS-Intelligence will showcase humanoid robots, embodied intelligence systems, and complete robot products.
Intelligence Synergy Hall (Hall B)
Companies such as Zhongqing, Xindong Yuan, Accelerated Evolution, SIASUN, Leju, Songyan Power, YouriQi, Qianxun Intelligent, Pasini, Hechuan, Lingxin Qiaoshou, and Tishan Technology will appear, covering areas like motion control, robot bodies, and intelligent interaction.
Intelligent Manufacturing Hall (Hall A)
Companies including Jingcheng Electromechanical, Luoshi, CITIC Heavy Industries, Haier, Feixi, Reelman, Yunjì, Qiling, Pudu, and more will demonstrate robot manufacturing and application scenarios.
In addition, core component companies such as Green HARMONICS, Wolong Electric Drive, Motic Electrical, Leisai Intelligent, and Wuzhou Xinchun will also be concentrated on-site, showcasing breakthroughs in underlying technologies across the robot industry chain.
Intelligence Fun Hall (Hall D)
Companies including CAS Cloud Valley, MindTalk Technology, Moke Robotics, Hongke Zhixing, Penetrating Mountain Axle (Chuangshanshajia), Songling, and others will bring more innovative applications, and some of them will also hold robot interactive performances.
From the robot body itself, to the AI “brain,” to core components—China’s robot industry chain is speeding up to take shape.
In the past few years, the industry was still stuck in the “concepts and demos” stage. Now, with continuing breakthroughs in embodied intelligence, humanoid robots, motion control, and AI models, robots are moving from laboratories toward commercial deployment.
On August 19, Beijing will witness a new round of competition for China’s robot industry.
Humanoid robots may be becoming the next new battleground for China’s technology industry after new energy vehicles.
#世界机器人大会
That evil yet all-powerful salted fish has already grabbed an early-bird ticket.
And a Red Sweet Potato (Xiaohongshu) netizen joked: before, I thought robots would explode in five years; after, I think it’ll be ten years.
Below is the overview. Personally, I’m quite looking forward to it.
Time: August 19—August 23
Venue: Beijing Beiren Yichuang International Exhibition Center
This year’s conference brings together many leading companies in China’s embodied intelligence and robotics sectors.
Intelligence Innovation Hall (Hall C)
Companies including Unitree Robotics, Xinghai Tu, UBTECH, Galaxy General, Zibian, Mingshi Technology, VIT.A Power, Zhishen Technology, Cloud Deep, Furier, Youbot, Xian Gong, and CAS-Intelligence will showcase humanoid robots, embodied intelligence systems, and complete robot products.
Intelligence Synergy Hall (Hall B)
Companies such as Zhongqing, Xindong Yuan, Accelerated Evolution, SIASUN, Leju, Songyan Power, YouriQi, Qianxun Intelligent, Pasini, Hechuan, Lingxin Qiaoshou, and Tishan Technology will appear, covering areas like motion control, robot bodies, and intelligent interaction.
Intelligent Manufacturing Hall (Hall A)
Companies including Jingcheng Electromechanical, Luoshi, CITIC Heavy Industries, Haier, Feixi, Reelman, Yunjì, Qiling, Pudu, and more will demonstrate robot manufacturing and application scenarios.
In addition, core component companies such as Green HARMONICS, Wolong Electric Drive, Motic Electrical, Leisai Intelligent, and Wuzhou Xinchun will also be concentrated on-site, showcasing breakthroughs in underlying technologies across the robot industry chain.
Intelligence Fun Hall (Hall D)
Companies including CAS Cloud Valley, MindTalk Technology, Moke Robotics, Hongke Zhixing, Penetrating Mountain Axle (Chuangshanshajia), Songling, and others will bring more innovative applications, and some of them will also hold robot interactive performances.
From the robot body itself, to the AI “brain,” to core components—China’s robot industry chain is speeding up to take shape.
In the past few years, the industry was still stuck in the “concepts and demos” stage. Now, with continuing breakthroughs in embodied intelligence, humanoid robots, motion control, and AI models, robots are moving from laboratories toward commercial deployment.
On August 19, Beijing will witness a new round of competition for China’s robot industry.
Humanoid robots may be becoming the next new battleground for China’s technology industry after new energy vehicles.
#世界机器人大会
Buffett doesn’t lack an understanding of technology—he’s simply been waiting for tech companies to become businesses he can truly understand.
Berkshire has finally started spending money.
In Q2, Berkshire sent out a very important signal: after 14 consecutive quarters of net selling stocks, it finally returned to large-scale buying.
In Q2, Berkshire bought about $23.5 billion worth of stocks, sold about $3.7 billion, and achieved a net purchase of roughly $19.8 billion.
Even more worth noting is that Alphabet (Google’s parent company) has officially entered Berkshire’s top five largest holdings, replacing Chevron.
As of now, the top five holdings include:
① Alphabet
② American Express
③ Apple
④ Bank of America
⑤ Coca-Cola
Meanwhile, in Q2 Berkshire repurchased about $4.53 billion of its own shares, with the buyback力度 clearly increasing.
Cash reserves also fell from about $397.4 billion at the end of Q1 to about $364.7 billion at the end of Q2.
In other words, Berkshire is undergoing a clear shift:
In recent years, it kept stockpiling cash and waiting for opportunities; now it has started putting that cash back into the market.
And the most thought-provoking part of this is the roughly $10 billion Alphabet investment.
In the Buffett era, Berkshire has long centered on high-quality consumer and financial businesses represented by Apple. But now Google has entered the core holdings.
Behind this bet, it’s obviously not just the traditional search business—it’s:
The search moat + AI large models + Google Cloud growth.
So what this earnings report is truly worth focusing on isn’t how much profits have risen, but the shift in capital allocation:
Berkshire has finally begun re-entering the market from a “cash-on-hand while waiting” posture.
The most interesting change is that Buffett’s rare tech-heavy late-era positioning may be turning into Berkshire’s new core asset.
And Buffett is betting that Google can emerge victorious after competing with other tech companies in the AI race—with a 90% likelihood. His judgment is simply too sharp.
Berkshire has finally started spending money.
In Q2, Berkshire sent out a very important signal: after 14 consecutive quarters of net selling stocks, it finally returned to large-scale buying.
In Q2, Berkshire bought about $23.5 billion worth of stocks, sold about $3.7 billion, and achieved a net purchase of roughly $19.8 billion.
Even more worth noting is that Alphabet (Google’s parent company) has officially entered Berkshire’s top five largest holdings, replacing Chevron.
As of now, the top five holdings include:
① Alphabet
② American Express
③ Apple
④ Bank of America
⑤ Coca-Cola
Meanwhile, in Q2 Berkshire repurchased about $4.53 billion of its own shares, with the buyback力度 clearly increasing.
Cash reserves also fell from about $397.4 billion at the end of Q1 to about $364.7 billion at the end of Q2.
In other words, Berkshire is undergoing a clear shift:
In recent years, it kept stockpiling cash and waiting for opportunities; now it has started putting that cash back into the market.
And the most thought-provoking part of this is the roughly $10 billion Alphabet investment.
In the Buffett era, Berkshire has long centered on high-quality consumer and financial businesses represented by Apple. But now Google has entered the core holdings.
Behind this bet, it’s obviously not just the traditional search business—it’s:
The search moat + AI large models + Google Cloud growth.
So what this earnings report is truly worth focusing on isn’t how much profits have risen, but the shift in capital allocation:
Berkshire has finally begun re-entering the market from a “cash-on-hand while waiting” posture.
The most interesting change is that Buffett’s rare tech-heavy late-era positioning may be turning into Berkshire’s new core asset.
And Buffett is betting that Google can emerge victorious after competing with other tech companies in the AI race—with a 90% likelihood. His judgment is simply too sharp.
得鹿梦鱼Delu
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Google’s parent company Alphabet’s latest earnings report sends an important signal: the AI arms race hasn’t cooled down yet.
Alphabet reported second-quarter results:
📌 Revenue: $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year
📌 Operating profit: $40.8 billion, up 30% year over year
📌 Net profit: $112.1 billion, up 298% year over year
Both revenue and operating profit beat market expectations.
However, the sharp surge in net profit was mainly driven by one-time factors, including gains from investments in spcx and Anthropic, and does not fully reflect growth in core business.
What the market is really watching is AI spending.
Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to:
$195–205 billion
Previously, the guidance was:
$170 billion
The increase is about 17%.
For the entire AI industry supply chain, this is an important signal.
Earlier, the market had been worried that after rapid expansion in AI infrastructure investment, tech giants might start slowing their capital spending.
But Google continues to ramp up spending, at least temporarily easing some market concerns.
Yet behind the earnings report there are also hidden risks.
Alphabet’s free cash flow in the second quarter was:
-$5.9 billion
This is the first time since the company went public that quarterly free cash flow turned negative.
The main reason is massive AI infrastructure investment.
The capital markets have already made their own judgment:
After the earnings release, Alphabet’s stock price fell by about 5%.
Investors aren’t worried that Google won’t have AI opportunities—they’re worried instead about:
How long will AI spending take to translate into real returns?
This question also affects the entire AI hardware supply chain.
Whether it’s:
AI chips, HBM memory, optical modules, high-speed interconnect cables, liquid-cooling equipment
At their core, all of them depend on cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon to keep increasing capital expenditures.
If these giants start cutting budgets, the industry cycle for upstream suppliers could also peak.
So the message from Alphabet’s earnings report is contradictory:
On one hand, AI demand remains strong, and the giants are still pouring money in relentlessly;
On the other hand, massive capital spending is testing investors’ patience.
The core question for the future of the AI industry has shifted from:
“Who will spend more?”
to:
“Who can turn investment into business returns the fastest?”
This will determine the winners in the next round of the AI industry supply chain.
#AI #Google #Alphabet #NVIDIA #Semiconductors #TechInvestment #ArtificialIntelligence
Alphabet reported second-quarter results:
📌 Revenue: $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year
📌 Operating profit: $40.8 billion, up 30% year over year
📌 Net profit: $112.1 billion, up 298% year over year
Both revenue and operating profit beat market expectations.
However, the sharp surge in net profit was mainly driven by one-time factors, including gains from investments in spcx and Anthropic, and does not fully reflect growth in core business.
What the market is really watching is AI spending.
Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to:
$195–205 billion
Previously, the guidance was:
$170 billion
The increase is about 17%.
For the entire AI industry supply chain, this is an important signal.
Earlier, the market had been worried that after rapid expansion in AI infrastructure investment, tech giants might start slowing their capital spending.
But Google continues to ramp up spending, at least temporarily easing some market concerns.
Yet behind the earnings report there are also hidden risks.
Alphabet’s free cash flow in the second quarter was:
-$5.9 billion
This is the first time since the company went public that quarterly free cash flow turned negative.
The main reason is massive AI infrastructure investment.
The capital markets have already made their own judgment:
After the earnings release, Alphabet’s stock price fell by about 5%.
Investors aren’t worried that Google won’t have AI opportunities—they’re worried instead about:
How long will AI spending take to translate into real returns?
This question also affects the entire AI hardware supply chain.
Whether it’s:
AI chips, HBM memory, optical modules, high-speed interconnect cables, liquid-cooling equipment
At their core, all of them depend on cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon to keep increasing capital expenditures.
If these giants start cutting budgets, the industry cycle for upstream suppliers could also peak.
So the message from Alphabet’s earnings report is contradictory:
On one hand, AI demand remains strong, and the giants are still pouring money in relentlessly;
On the other hand, massive capital spending is testing investors’ patience.
The core question for the future of the AI industry has shifted from:
“Who will spend more?”
to:
“Who can turn investment into business returns the fastest?”
This will determine the winners in the next round of the AI industry supply chain.
#AI #Google #Alphabet #NVIDIA #Semiconductors #TechInvestment #ArtificialIntelligence
Relationships are also a long-term investment
Intentionally distance yourself from three types of people who will keep dragging you down—
those with a victim mentality of complaining and shirking responsibility,
smart people with no moral bottom line,
and stubborn people who refuse to keep learning.
They will drain your emotions, undermine trust, and hinder your growth.
Instead, deliberately befriend people who are upright and trustworthy, who keep improving, who are generous without keeping score, who are emotionally stable, who are long-term oriented, and whose values align with yours.
These relationships can bring cognitive growth and compound opportunities.
The truly effective approach isn’t broad socializing—
it’s to simplify your circle, get to know people through the details, recognize problems early and cut your losses in time, and continuously improve yourself.
People are only drawn to others at a similar level.
Socialize only for filtering purposes: save energy, align with people whose cognition matches yours, walk alongside them, and learn from those with higher “ranks.”
Enjoy a great weekend. Have a happy weekend. Thank you.
Intentionally distance yourself from three types of people who will keep dragging you down—
those with a victim mentality of complaining and shirking responsibility,
smart people with no moral bottom line,
and stubborn people who refuse to keep learning.
They will drain your emotions, undermine trust, and hinder your growth.
Instead, deliberately befriend people who are upright and trustworthy, who keep improving, who are generous without keeping score, who are emotionally stable, who are long-term oriented, and whose values align with yours.
These relationships can bring cognitive growth and compound opportunities.
The truly effective approach isn’t broad socializing—
it’s to simplify your circle, get to know people through the details, recognize problems early and cut your losses in time, and continuously improve yourself.
People are only drawn to others at a similar level.
Socialize only for filtering purposes: save energy, align with people whose cognition matches yours, walk alongside them, and learn from those with higher “ranks.”
Enjoy a great weekend. Have a happy weekend. Thank you.
Good food isn’t afraid of being late; the Cabo Verde door-guard’s market value soars by 1000%
At 40, Cabo Verde goalkeeper Vozinija led the team at the 2026 World Cup to a clean-sheet shutout of champions Spain and a draw against Argentina. His value jumped from €50,000 to €500,000—an increase of 1000%. After the surge, he officially signed with Chilean powerhouse Colo-Colo. Currently, his International version of Little Red Book account has 30 million followers.
At the time, the ridicule was so loud it nearly drowned out your will.
Everyone looked down on you, but you were the one who proved yourself most fiercely.
After those two matches, who in the world didn’t know your name?
Good food isn’t afraid of being late; the gold will always shine.
If you truly believe you have something and real skills, then you should even more rely on that grit to make yourself.
Come on, my fan friends.
At 40, Cabo Verde goalkeeper Vozinija led the team at the 2026 World Cup to a clean-sheet shutout of champions Spain and a draw against Argentina. His value jumped from €50,000 to €500,000—an increase of 1000%. After the surge, he officially signed with Chilean powerhouse Colo-Colo. Currently, his International version of Little Red Book account has 30 million followers.
At the time, the ridicule was so loud it nearly drowned out your will.
Everyone looked down on you, but you were the one who proved yourself most fiercely.
After those two matches, who in the world didn’t know your name?
Good food isn’t afraid of being late; the gold will always shine.
If you truly believe you have something and real skills, then you should even more rely on that grit to make yourself.
Come on, my fan friends.
得鹿梦鱼Delu
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🏆 Spain Return to the Top of the World! Wins the World Cup for the Second Time in 16 Years!
The 2026 Canada–USA–Mexico World Cup final has come to an end.
After a fierce 120-minute battle with Argentina, Spain and Argentina saw a blank draw during regular time. It was only in extra time that Ferran Torres stepped up, scoring the match’s only goal and helping Spain defeat the defending champions 1-0 to secure their second-ever World Cup title.
This is a new golden age for Spanish football.
Compared with the 2010 squad, the “Bullfighters” known for their possession-based style, today’s Spain is younger and more pragmatic. Throughout the tournament, their defense stayed steady and their game control was excellent—when it mattered most, they never faltered.
📊 Spain’s path to qualification this World Cup:
✅ Group Stage
0-0 Cape Verde
4-0 Saudi Arabia
1-0 Uruguay
✅ Knockout Stage
3-0 Austria
1-0 Portugal
2-1 Belgium
2-0 France
1-0 Argentina (after extra time)
Notably, after entering the knockout rounds, Spain kept four straight clean sheets—conceding only once, in the match against Belgium. Both defensively and offensively, they demonstrated champion-level consistency.
For Argentina, reaching the final in two consecutive World Cups is already highly admirable, but this time they couldn’t complete the title defense.
And for Spain, from European Championship winners to World Cup champions—this young team has officially transformed, once again standing on the highest podium in world football.
⚽ 16 years of waiting finally bring the second star.
Did you get in on this one? Anyway, with the World Cup over and liquidity back, once US stock traders return from their holidays, there will most likely be a round of corrective action.
#WorldCup #WorldCup #Spain #西班牙 #Argentina #football #FIFAWorldCup
The 2026 Canada–USA–Mexico World Cup final has come to an end.
After a fierce 120-minute battle with Argentina, Spain and Argentina saw a blank draw during regular time. It was only in extra time that Ferran Torres stepped up, scoring the match’s only goal and helping Spain defeat the defending champions 1-0 to secure their second-ever World Cup title.
This is a new golden age for Spanish football.
Compared with the 2010 squad, the “Bullfighters” known for their possession-based style, today’s Spain is younger and more pragmatic. Throughout the tournament, their defense stayed steady and their game control was excellent—when it mattered most, they never faltered.
📊 Spain’s path to qualification this World Cup:
✅ Group Stage
0-0 Cape Verde
4-0 Saudi Arabia
1-0 Uruguay
✅ Knockout Stage
3-0 Austria
1-0 Portugal
2-1 Belgium
2-0 France
1-0 Argentina (after extra time)
Notably, after entering the knockout rounds, Spain kept four straight clean sheets—conceding only once, in the match against Belgium. Both defensively and offensively, they demonstrated champion-level consistency.
For Argentina, reaching the final in two consecutive World Cups is already highly admirable, but this time they couldn’t complete the title defense.
And for Spain, from European Championship winners to World Cup champions—this young team has officially transformed, once again standing on the highest podium in world football.
⚽ 16 years of waiting finally bring the second star.
Did you get in on this one? Anyway, with the World Cup over and liquidity back, once US stock traders return from their holidays, there will most likely be a round of corrective action.
#WorldCup #WorldCup #Spain #西班牙 #Argentina #football #FIFAWorldCup
A horse without night grass will not grow fat; a person without unexpected wealth will not become rich.
People who are not blessed with unexpected wealth live a poor life; horses without night grass labor and grow sick.
A “工” character without a dot won’t show up; when you’ve experienced earning several thousand or even ten thousand in a single day,
when you’ve earned dozens or even millions in an investment game,
you’ll find that almost nothing—no unimportant people or things—can hold your interest.
Why?
Because you’ve figured out how the world works.
Seventy percent of human relationships are about draining energy;
Ninety percent of troubles come from excessive empathy.
Making money is the most efficient form of cultivation—it forces you to see what value is and what is mere noise.
Those who truly have made big money understand this:
Wealth lies in cognition, and value lies in one’s mindset.
Money flows to those who deserve it—not by sheer hard work, but because you match, you match.
At first it’s excitement, then everything returns to plainness. It’s all just probability arriving as scheduled.
No longer needing to prove anything to the outside world—there’s always a mountain beyond the mountain.
Later, you’ll hardly screenshot “battle records.”
All you think about is upgrading your own “game character.”
Maintain good sleep, maintain good emotions, maintain good protein intake, maintain proper weight, and keep working on reducing body fat.
More importantly, continuously update your cognition system, regularly review and retroanalyze, and detect and fix bugs.
People who are not blessed with unexpected wealth live a poor life; horses without night grass labor and grow sick.
A “工” character without a dot won’t show up; when you’ve experienced earning several thousand or even ten thousand in a single day,
when you’ve earned dozens or even millions in an investment game,
you’ll find that almost nothing—no unimportant people or things—can hold your interest.
Why?
Because you’ve figured out how the world works.
Seventy percent of human relationships are about draining energy;
Ninety percent of troubles come from excessive empathy.
Making money is the most efficient form of cultivation—it forces you to see what value is and what is mere noise.
Those who truly have made big money understand this:
Wealth lies in cognition, and value lies in one’s mindset.
Money flows to those who deserve it—not by sheer hard work, but because you match, you match.
At first it’s excitement, then everything returns to plainness. It’s all just probability arriving as scheduled.
No longer needing to prove anything to the outside world—there’s always a mountain beyond the mountain.
Later, you’ll hardly screenshot “battle records.”
All you think about is upgrading your own “game character.”
Maintain good sleep, maintain good emotions, maintain good protein intake, maintain proper weight, and keep working on reducing body fat.
More importantly, continuously update your cognition system, regularly review and retroanalyze, and detect and fix bugs.
Hong Kong insurance has officially come into view for offshore income taxation, and the market has begun repricing.
One recent change drawing market attention is that the investment returns of Hong Kong savings and dividend-type insurance policies have been included in the personal income tax administration. Similar to investment returns from overseas stocks and offshore trusts, tax is levied on the portion representing gains.
Insurance claim payouts from critical illness insurance, medical insurance, life insurance, etc. typically are not subject to taxation. However, for policies that include savings, dividend, or investment features, when the policyholder surrenders the policy, receives benefits, or receives dividends, the portion representing relevant gains must be taxed according to law.
This means that the original long-term return rate of about 5% will be reduced after paying roughly 20% in gains tax, and the return advantage of Hong Kong insurance over mainland products will be further compressed.
As the coverage of CRS (Common Reporting Standard) continues to expand and cross-border financial account information exchange becomes increasingly robust, income generated from offshore assets such as overseas stocks, insurance, trusts, and real estate is gradually entering the tax regulatory system. Currently, the United States has not yet joined the CRS multilateral information exchange framework, so the situation remains relatively special.
Capital markets have already started to respond. After the news was released, the share price of AIA Insurance fell by around 6% at one point, and Prudential also saw a notable pullback. The market worries that the taxation policy may weaken the appeal of Hong Kong insurance to customers from the mainland.
In fact, taxation of offshore gains is not a brand-new concept. With cross-border tax information sharing steadily improving, in the future, overseas asset allocation will not only focus on return rates, but also needs to incorporate tax costs into the overall investment return calculation.
Cross-border investing is moving into a new phase of joint pricing for "returns + taxes."
Tax planning should be done in advance to respond reasonably, not waiting until tax is due before starting to think about tax avoidance and tax saving. Going forward, tax compliance education and popularization will cover topics such as CRS’s five-tier look-through, and compliance matters under the 2026–2028 tax capacity-building and enforcement initiative.
One recent change drawing market attention is that the investment returns of Hong Kong savings and dividend-type insurance policies have been included in the personal income tax administration. Similar to investment returns from overseas stocks and offshore trusts, tax is levied on the portion representing gains.
Insurance claim payouts from critical illness insurance, medical insurance, life insurance, etc. typically are not subject to taxation. However, for policies that include savings, dividend, or investment features, when the policyholder surrenders the policy, receives benefits, or receives dividends, the portion representing relevant gains must be taxed according to law.
This means that the original long-term return rate of about 5% will be reduced after paying roughly 20% in gains tax, and the return advantage of Hong Kong insurance over mainland products will be further compressed.
As the coverage of CRS (Common Reporting Standard) continues to expand and cross-border financial account information exchange becomes increasingly robust, income generated from offshore assets such as overseas stocks, insurance, trusts, and real estate is gradually entering the tax regulatory system. Currently, the United States has not yet joined the CRS multilateral information exchange framework, so the situation remains relatively special.
Capital markets have already started to respond. After the news was released, the share price of AIA Insurance fell by around 6% at one point, and Prudential also saw a notable pullback. The market worries that the taxation policy may weaken the appeal of Hong Kong insurance to customers from the mainland.
In fact, taxation of offshore gains is not a brand-new concept. With cross-border tax information sharing steadily improving, in the future, overseas asset allocation will not only focus on return rates, but also needs to incorporate tax costs into the overall investment return calculation.
Cross-border investing is moving into a new phase of joint pricing for "returns + taxes."
Tax planning should be done in advance to respond reasonably, not waiting until tax is due before starting to think about tax avoidance and tax saving. Going forward, tax compliance education and popularization will cover topics such as CRS’s five-tier look-through, and compliance matters under the 2026–2028 tax capacity-building and enforcement initiative.
得鹿梦鱼Delu
·
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The “tax-avoidance myth” of offshore trusts is coming to an end
The State Taxation Administration Announcement No. 21 of 2020 and the supporting regulations—State Taxation Administration Announcement No. 15 of 2020—were issued on July 24, along with official interpretations and Q&A with reporters. The latest policy signals show that China is further clarifying the administration of individual income tax related to offshore trusts.
In the past, many high-net-worth individuals set up offshore trusts. Besides purposes such as wealth transfer and asset segregation, another important attraction is:
After assets are placed into a trust, does any tax need to be paid on appreciation and distributions?
For a long time, due to the lack of clear implementation rules, there has been a large tax gray area in this area.
In the past, many high-net-worth individuals set up offshore trusts. Besides purposes such as wealth transfer and asset segregation, another important attraction is:
After assets are placed into a trust, does any tax need to be paid on appreciation and distributions?
For a long time, due to the lack of clear implementation rules, there has been a large tax gray area in this area.
🚨DeepSeek or restarting a new round of fundraising, with its valuation continuing to set new records.
Multiple people in the market report that DeepSeek has initiated a second round of financing, aiming to raise approximately RMB 50 billion, with a pre-money valuation of about RMB 500 billion. The signing is expected to be completed in late August.
Looking back at the previous funding timeline:
The first round began in April this year;
Settlement was completed in June, raising about RMB 50 billion, with a post-money valuation exceeding RMB 350 billion—setting a new record for the largest single-round financing scale for a China AI large-model company.
It is reported that the second round was actually launched as early as mid-July, but was temporarily paused toward the end of July. Some investment institutions that had already entered the negotiation stage received notifications of a postponement of the signing. Now that fundraising is back on track, it suggests the project may have resumed its normal process.
If this round goes smoothly, DeepSeek will continue to join the ranks of AI startups with the highest global valuations, further reflecting the capital market’s attention to the long-term competitiveness of domestically developed large models.
Of course, the above information is mainly based on market reports. The final fundraising amount, valuation, and settlement timeline still need to be confirmed by official disclosures.
Multiple people in the market report that DeepSeek has initiated a second round of financing, aiming to raise approximately RMB 50 billion, with a pre-money valuation of about RMB 500 billion. The signing is expected to be completed in late August.
Looking back at the previous funding timeline:
The first round began in April this year;
Settlement was completed in June, raising about RMB 50 billion, with a post-money valuation exceeding RMB 350 billion—setting a new record for the largest single-round financing scale for a China AI large-model company.
It is reported that the second round was actually launched as early as mid-July, but was temporarily paused toward the end of July. Some investment institutions that had already entered the negotiation stage received notifications of a postponement of the signing. Now that fundraising is back on track, it suggests the project may have resumed its normal process.
If this round goes smoothly, DeepSeek will continue to join the ranks of AI startups with the highest global valuations, further reflecting the capital market’s attention to the long-term competitiveness of domestically developed large models.
Of course, the above information is mainly based on market reports. The final fundraising amount, valuation, and settlement timeline still need to be confirmed by official disclosures.
得鹿梦鱼Delu
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After watching Liang Wenfeng’s 4-hour investment talk and sharing, my biggest takeaway can be summed up in four words: long-termism.
While many AI companies are busy chasing traffic, commercialization, and valuations, DeepSeek seems to have chosen a different path.
Liang Wenfeng emphasized multiple times that what they truly want to achieve is AGI (artificial general intelligence).
Not a single model that’s just good at chatting, writing code, or generating images or videos—but a complete intelligent system that can understand the world like humans, think independently, and keep learning continuously.
Around this goal, the team is willing to restrain short-term temptations.
In their view, rather than chasing immediate business opportunities, it’s better to concentrate resources on longer-term technological breakthroughs.
As for AI competition between China and the US, his judgment is also fairly clear.
He believes China’s real gap isn’t人才 (talent), but compute power and resource allocation—the gap is roughly about a year. However, through higher training efficiency and engineering optimization, that window has already been significantly shortened.
At the same time, he remains optimistic about China-made AI infrastructure.
With domestic GPUs, software ecosystems, and developer tools continuing to mature—and as AI helps reduce migration costs for developers—those technical barriers that were once considered unbreakable may, in the future, be less solid than people imagine.
DeepSeek’s continued commitment to open source also reflects this mindset.
In his view, open source doesn’t mean there’s no business model. Even if, in the future, they only provide API services, it would be enough to build a sustainable revenue stream—so there’s no need to give up a long-term ecosystem for short-term profits.
On pricing, he also stressed “reasonable profit.”
Companies need to make money, but they don’t need to squeeze every last cent. In the long run, overly chasing profit may actually cause them to lose competitiveness.
As for the recent introduction of external capital, he explained it quite candidly.
The financing isn’t for personal wealth, but to give the team a more stable environment for development and more competitive incentive mechanisms. Great talent needs to be kept long-term, and relying only on ideals makes it difficult to accomplish this.
#AGI #人工智能
While many AI companies are busy chasing traffic, commercialization, and valuations, DeepSeek seems to have chosen a different path.
Liang Wenfeng emphasized multiple times that what they truly want to achieve is AGI (artificial general intelligence).
Not a single model that’s just good at chatting, writing code, or generating images or videos—but a complete intelligent system that can understand the world like humans, think independently, and keep learning continuously.
Around this goal, the team is willing to restrain short-term temptations.
In their view, rather than chasing immediate business opportunities, it’s better to concentrate resources on longer-term technological breakthroughs.
As for AI competition between China and the US, his judgment is also fairly clear.
He believes China’s real gap isn’t人才 (talent), but compute power and resource allocation—the gap is roughly about a year. However, through higher training efficiency and engineering optimization, that window has already been significantly shortened.
At the same time, he remains optimistic about China-made AI infrastructure.
With domestic GPUs, software ecosystems, and developer tools continuing to mature—and as AI helps reduce migration costs for developers—those technical barriers that were once considered unbreakable may, in the future, be less solid than people imagine.
DeepSeek’s continued commitment to open source also reflects this mindset.
In his view, open source doesn’t mean there’s no business model. Even if, in the future, they only provide API services, it would be enough to build a sustainable revenue stream—so there’s no need to give up a long-term ecosystem for short-term profits.
On pricing, he also stressed “reasonable profit.”
Companies need to make money, but they don’t need to squeeze every last cent. In the long run, overly chasing profit may actually cause them to lose competitiveness.
As for the recent introduction of external capital, he explained it quite candidly.
The financing isn’t for personal wealth, but to give the team a more stable environment for development and more competitive incentive mechanisms. Great talent needs to be kept long-term, and relying only on ideals makes it difficult to accomplish this.
#AGI #人工智能
Wow, wow, SpaceX's earnings report is incredibly impressive—like a sci-fi StarCraft movie!
SpaceX Q2 earnings are in, and the business is even stronger than expected, but I’m still staying on the cautious side.
I watched SpaceX’s first earnings report after going public firsthand today, and the operating numbers really are impressive:
🚀 Q2 revenue of about $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, and above market expectations;
📉 Operating losses narrowed significantly, falling from nearly $1 billion in the same period last year to about $140 million;
🛰️ Starlink revenue continues to grow at a rapid pace, still an important pillar of cash flow;
🤖 AI business revenue has jumped significantly and is starting to gradually translate investments into commercial value.
But there’s another side that’s also worth paying attention to.
This quarter’s capital expenditures remain at a high level, with AI infrastructure investment taking up the vast majority, and management has said that over the next few quarters they will continue to maintain a fairly heavy investment pace. This means the company is growing fast, but the cash burn is also astonishing. What the market will care about next is whether these investments can keep converting into profits.
What’s truly worth watching is the stock price performance.
Before the earnings were released, $SPCX briefly surged to around $130, forcing many short sellers to cover. But once the report landed, the stock price quickly pulled back and dipped again below $120—giving back most of the gains from the prior two days.
This suggests the market isn’t denying SpaceX’s fundamentals; it’s re-evaluating whether the current valuation already priced in the future growth ahead of time.
The biggest variable ahead is the upcoming release of the first batch of lock-up shares on August 6.
The unlock doesn’t mean all shares will be sold immediately, but the amount of tradable supply will clearly increase. The market will need more incremental capital to absorb that supply. For high-valuation growth stocks, supply-and-demand dynamics often matter more for short-term share price than even a great earnings report.
SpaceX is still one of the most competitive space and technology companies globally, and Starlink, Starship, and AI all have long-term room for imagination.
However, an excellent company doesn’t necessarily mean you should buy any price.
At this stage, I’m more focused on the supply pressure caused by the unlock and whether market capital can absorb it smoothly, rather than the earnings report itself. Therefore, until the unlocking risk is fully priced out, I’m maintaining a relatively cautious stance.
The business can still be viewed positively, but the near-term valuation needs to be watched.
SpaceX Q2 earnings are in, and the business is even stronger than expected, but I’m still staying on the cautious side.
I watched SpaceX’s first earnings report after going public firsthand today, and the operating numbers really are impressive:
🚀 Q2 revenue of about $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, and above market expectations;
📉 Operating losses narrowed significantly, falling from nearly $1 billion in the same period last year to about $140 million;
🛰️ Starlink revenue continues to grow at a rapid pace, still an important pillar of cash flow;
🤖 AI business revenue has jumped significantly and is starting to gradually translate investments into commercial value.
But there’s another side that’s also worth paying attention to.
This quarter’s capital expenditures remain at a high level, with AI infrastructure investment taking up the vast majority, and management has said that over the next few quarters they will continue to maintain a fairly heavy investment pace. This means the company is growing fast, but the cash burn is also astonishing. What the market will care about next is whether these investments can keep converting into profits.
What’s truly worth watching is the stock price performance.
Before the earnings were released, $SPCX briefly surged to around $130, forcing many short sellers to cover. But once the report landed, the stock price quickly pulled back and dipped again below $120—giving back most of the gains from the prior two days.
This suggests the market isn’t denying SpaceX’s fundamentals; it’s re-evaluating whether the current valuation already priced in the future growth ahead of time.
The biggest variable ahead is the upcoming release of the first batch of lock-up shares on August 6.
The unlock doesn’t mean all shares will be sold immediately, but the amount of tradable supply will clearly increase. The market will need more incremental capital to absorb that supply. For high-valuation growth stocks, supply-and-demand dynamics often matter more for short-term share price than even a great earnings report.
SpaceX is still one of the most competitive space and technology companies globally, and Starlink, Starship, and AI all have long-term room for imagination.
However, an excellent company doesn’t necessarily mean you should buy any price.
At this stage, I’m more focused on the supply pressure caused by the unlock and whether market capital can absorb it smoothly, rather than the earnings report itself. Therefore, until the unlocking risk is fully priced out, I’m maintaining a relatively cautious stance.
The business can still be viewed positively, but the near-term valuation needs to be watched.
得鹿梦鱼Delu
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Google’s parent company Alphabet’s latest earnings report sends an important signal: the AI arms race hasn’t cooled down yet.
Alphabet reported second-quarter results:
📌 Revenue: $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year
📌 Operating profit: $40.8 billion, up 30% year over year
📌 Net profit: $112.1 billion, up 298% year over year
Both revenue and operating profit beat market expectations.
However, the sharp surge in net profit was mainly driven by one-time factors, including gains from investments in spcx and Anthropic, and does not fully reflect growth in core business.
What the market is really watching is AI spending.
Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to:
$195–205 billion
Previously, the guidance was:
$170 billion
The increase is about 17%.
For the entire AI industry supply chain, this is an important signal.
Earlier, the market had been worried that after rapid expansion in AI infrastructure investment, tech giants might start slowing their capital spending.
But Google continues to ramp up spending, at least temporarily easing some market concerns.
Yet behind the earnings report there are also hidden risks.
Alphabet’s free cash flow in the second quarter was:
-$5.9 billion
This is the first time since the company went public that quarterly free cash flow turned negative.
The main reason is massive AI infrastructure investment.
The capital markets have already made their own judgment:
After the earnings release, Alphabet’s stock price fell by about 5%.
Investors aren’t worried that Google won’t have AI opportunities—they’re worried instead about:
How long will AI spending take to translate into real returns?
This question also affects the entire AI hardware supply chain.
Whether it’s:
AI chips, HBM memory, optical modules, high-speed interconnect cables, liquid-cooling equipment
At their core, all of them depend on cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon to keep increasing capital expenditures.
If these giants start cutting budgets, the industry cycle for upstream suppliers could also peak.
So the message from Alphabet’s earnings report is contradictory:
On one hand, AI demand remains strong, and the giants are still pouring money in relentlessly;
On the other hand, massive capital spending is testing investors’ patience.
The core question for the future of the AI industry has shifted from:
“Who will spend more?”
to:
“Who can turn investment into business returns the fastest?”
This will determine the winners in the next round of the AI industry supply chain.
#AI #Google #Alphabet #NVIDIA #Semiconductors #TechInvestment #ArtificialIntelligence
Alphabet reported second-quarter results:
📌 Revenue: $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year
📌 Operating profit: $40.8 billion, up 30% year over year
📌 Net profit: $112.1 billion, up 298% year over year
Both revenue and operating profit beat market expectations.
However, the sharp surge in net profit was mainly driven by one-time factors, including gains from investments in spcx and Anthropic, and does not fully reflect growth in core business.
What the market is really watching is AI spending.
Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to:
$195–205 billion
Previously, the guidance was:
$170 billion
The increase is about 17%.
For the entire AI industry supply chain, this is an important signal.
Earlier, the market had been worried that after rapid expansion in AI infrastructure investment, tech giants might start slowing their capital spending.
But Google continues to ramp up spending, at least temporarily easing some market concerns.
Yet behind the earnings report there are also hidden risks.
Alphabet’s free cash flow in the second quarter was:
-$5.9 billion
This is the first time since the company went public that quarterly free cash flow turned negative.
The main reason is massive AI infrastructure investment.
The capital markets have already made their own judgment:
After the earnings release, Alphabet’s stock price fell by about 5%.
Investors aren’t worried that Google won’t have AI opportunities—they’re worried instead about:
How long will AI spending take to translate into real returns?
This question also affects the entire AI hardware supply chain.
Whether it’s:
AI chips, HBM memory, optical modules, high-speed interconnect cables, liquid-cooling equipment
At their core, all of them depend on cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon to keep increasing capital expenditures.
If these giants start cutting budgets, the industry cycle for upstream suppliers could also peak.
So the message from Alphabet’s earnings report is contradictory:
On one hand, AI demand remains strong, and the giants are still pouring money in relentlessly;
On the other hand, massive capital spending is testing investors’ patience.
The core question for the future of the AI industry has shifted from:
“Who will spend more?”
to:
“Who can turn investment into business returns the fastest?”
This will determine the winners in the next round of the AI industry supply chain.
#AI #Google #Alphabet #NVIDIA #Semiconductors #TechInvestment #ArtificialIntelligence
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