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On September 2, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net outflow of 3,148 BTC (about $241 million). Of this, BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for a $201 million outflow, or 85% of the total outflows; Fidelity’s FBTC saw a $43.67 million outflow. This is the largest single-day outflow for Bitcoin ETFs since July 31, ending the prior streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling $924 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs had a daily net inflow of 7,522 ETH (about $17.91 million), maintaining net inflows for multiple days in a row. Over the past seven trading days, Ethereum ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $522 million, while Bitcoin ETFs saw only $215 million in net inflows during the same period—Ethereum was 2.42 times Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding out, while Ethereum ETFs are pulling in capital. This is not money leaving the crypto market; it’s money making a structural rotation within crypto assets—from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Today, the entire market is consolidating on reduced volume. Bitcoin has been pulling back and forth around 7.7, just like it previously did around 6.3. As long as it can hold steady at this level, the next phase will be a beautiful spring. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the entire network were about $152 million, with long positions accounting for roughly $103 million. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 71, entering the “Greed” zone, but the altcoin season index is only 32—so the rally has not yet fully spread. That said, you also need to watch for policy-related risks. At the annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered a hawkish speech, confirming that the 2% inflation target is a “hard constraint” and stressing that inflation has not yet met the target. Market expectations for a rate hike in September jumped from about 36% before the speech to 57%. CME FedWatch data shows traders’ bets on a September rate hike have risen to 57%. At $77,000, Bitcoin is digesting the impact of Waller’s hawkish remarks. A 57% probability of a September rate hike is the biggest knife hanging over the market. If that knife falls, Bitcoin will very likely return to around 6.3 to continue consolidating.
Stabilizing at this current level is actually very good. From above 80,000 down to where we are now is caused by multiple factors, but overall the size of this pullback is very healthy. On the other hand, if the market were to surge directly to around 90,000, then the risk of a major selloff would be relatively high. Because that level would allow many people to get out of their positions and even make a small profit, increasing the selling pressure. Yesterday, Bitcoin saw outflows of 210 million, while Ethereum continued to have inflows. This offset a large portion of the downward pressure, and overall the market is not badly damaged. In August, Bitcoin had total inflows of $3.5 billion, the largest single-month inflow this year. The market was temporarily suppressed mainly due to geopolitical conflicts. The U.S. continues to be untrustworthy—after signing an agreement, it can tear it up right away, which to some extent further reduces America’s credibility internationally. Strategy continued to buy in large amounts, purchasing nearly $400 million worth of Bitcoin between August 24 and 30. This is strong support for future market activity. If global conditions become even more uncertain, I believe gold and Bitcoin will become the assets that people chase after. Over this period, the market will enter a boring phase again. Everyone needs to stay patient and continue to lurk, waiting for the opportunity.
Keep it up, people of the crypto circle. Welcome to follow Thirteen—let’s ride through the bull and bear cycles together, and see through the dust and drama of the crypto world.
Because the Fed has indicated that there’s a possibility of further rate hikes, the market has once again pulled back. Putting aside technical analysis and trends, just speaking as a novice investor, how should you invest correctly in the crypto market? Before this round of the market rally started, Shisan didn’t know whether it would keep taking off or would pull back. Nobody can know that—maybe Trump has some inside information. So we can only invest in the lowest-risk way to protect what’s in your pocket—the most important thing. If Shisan told everyone to board above 80,000, then of course you would be losing money now. But he strongly tried to dissuade everyone. Even if the market did take off, the principal in your wallet hasn’t decreased. On the contrary, if you chased the price and got in now, you’re definitely losing money. Any investment must evaluate the risks and returns behind your actions. The current trend is not clear. Whether in terms of liquidity or news catalysts, everything is extremely uncertain right now. It has fallen to around 6.7—can you enter now? This definitely needs to be based on each person’s actual situation. When investing in crypto, never try to obtain a definite answer. Once you get trapped in a “certain answer” and can’t pull yourself out, the end result will be losing everything and going bankrupt.
Thirteen, besides the square, all other platforms have been shut down entirely—just because a couple of days ago, in an article, Thirteen said a few true things. So brutal, brothers~ The gang is filing complaints.
The world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin is building up its reserves.
Strategy had accumulated 840,447 bitcoins as of August 23, with a total purchase cost of $6.336 billion and an average buy price of $75,385.
At the current $80,000 level, the value of its holdings is approximately $6.64 billion, with unrealized gains already exceeding $3 billion.
But there is one key signal worth noting: Strategy hasn’t bought any Bitcoin since June 22.
In August, the company raised $3.28 billion by selling its own shares, but invested none of the funds into Bitcoin.
Instead, after increasing its existing cash reserves to $5.1 billion, it also established an additional independent U.S. dollar liquidity pool of $1.59 billion.
This funding can be used in the future to buy more Bitcoin, or to pay dividends, repay debt, repurchase shares, and so on.
Strategy CEO Phong Le emphasized that Strategy will maintain its long-term positioning as a company that “buys Bitcoin.”
Thirteen’s take: Strategy staying put around $80,000 suggests Saylor is waiting for a better entry point—possibly a pullback after the Jackson Hole speech, or volatility following the September FOMC meeting.
Once the $1.59 billion cash ammunition is deployed, it will be one of the strongest buy signals in the market.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index is at 73–74, placing it in the “greed” range.
The 7-day average is 66, and the 30-day average is 37. A month ago, it was still struggling in extreme fear (the index even dipped to 12). Now, sentiment has fully reversed.
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto derivatives market saw significant liquidation.
In the past week alone, shorts were liquidated to the tune of about $7.2 billion.
On the technical front, Bitcoin has broken through the key psychological level of $80,000. Resistance above lies at $82,000–$83,000 (the May high zone), while support below is at $78,000–$79,000 (the consolidation range before the breakout).
Altcoins are broadly following suit: Ethereum rose to $2,513, and Solana broke above $100. Capital is rotating from Bitcoin to large-cap altcoins—an encouraging sign that overall market risk appetite is recovering across the board.
Geopolitically, positive signals have arrived today. On the 25th, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement saying that the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff and the Minister of Interior concluded a one-day visit to Iran. In discussions with their Iranian counterparts, both sides focused on preventing the situation from escalating further, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and accelerating measures to end the conflict. This marks the first time since the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out that a third country has formally stepped in to mediate and achieved substantive progress in talks. At the same time, Iran and Oman have also restarted negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz. If oil prices continue to fall on expectations of the strait being reopened, it would further ease inflationary pressure, giving the Federal Reserve greater room for policy maneuvering—an indirect positive for the crypto market. On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act finally has a clear timeline. The CLARITY Act will face a procedural vote (cloture vote) in the Senate at 2:15 a.m. Beijing Time on September 16. This vote is not the final gate determining whether the bill will pass; rather, it is the first hurdle that decides whether the bill can move into formal consideration on the Senate floor. To clear the debate-ending threshold, the Senate typically needs 60 votes. However, Polymarket’s prediction shows that the probability the bill is signed into law in 2026 is only 15%. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May (15–9), but since then it has stalled at the full Senate level. After summer began, opposition from some lawmakers intensified. The Coinbase-funded group Stand With Crypto has endorsed 32 lawmakers in the House who voted in favor of the CLARITY Act. But the Senate deadlock is unlikely to be broken in the short term. Thirteen’s assessment: the probability of the CLARITY Act successfully breaking through on September 16 is extremely low. A 15% approval chance means the institutional turning point for the crypto industry—shifting from “enforcement regulation” to “codified law regulation”—may be delayed until 2027 or even later. The good news, however, is that Bitcoin has already been classified as a commodity by both the SEC and the CFTC, and it is “the only token that does not require the CLARITY Act.”
After the surge, the real test is about to begin. This week, the focus of global markets is undoubtedly the annual meeting at Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak on August 28 (Friday) at 10:00 p.m. Beijing time. This will be Powell’s first appearance at a global central bank annual event since taking office. Markets will be looking for clues about the Fed’s rate-hike path for September in every word he says. A recent report from CICC notes that Powell’s earlier remarks—“letting the market price in rate hikes for the Fed”—failed to ease concerns about inflation. Combined with the ineffectiveness of interventions by the Ministry of Finance, the credibility of policy has been undermined, and U.S. Treasury yields have continued to climb. CICC expects Powell this time to reiterate inflation risks and keep rate-hike options on the table in order to rebuild credibility. The probability of a rate hike in September remains high. At the Fed’s July meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike, the largest number of dissenting votes since 2016. Attention is now shifting to Powell’s speech on Friday. Market expectations are that his wording may directly determine pricing for September and subsequent meetings. Thirteen’s view: If Powell releases a dovish signal at Jackson Hole (emphasizing that inflation is moving downward and retaining policy flexibility), Bitcoin could continue to test 85,000 and even 90,000. If Powell reiterates a hawkish stance (emphasizing inflation risks and keeping rate-hike options), levels above 80,000 may face a rapid pullback.
Today’s market action gives the bulls a reason to hold their heads high—and leaves the bears completely stunned. During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin surged violently, breaking through the $80,000 mark in one move. It topped out at $81,257, the highest since mid-May this year. As of the time of writing, BTC is around $80,700–$80,800, up more than 4% over the past 24 hours, with a cumulative gain of nearly 26% over the last 7 days. Ethereum also climbed in sync to $2,513, reaching its highest level since January this year. Solana broke above $100, rising 7.5% intraday. Over the past 24 hours, the entire crypto market has erupted. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index today stands at 73–74, having returned to the “Greed” zone after a lapse of several months. The 7-day average is 66, and the 30-day average is 37. One month ago, the market was still struggling in extreme fear; now, sentiment has completely flipped. Bitcoin has rebounded from the June low of $58,000 all the way back above $80,000. In two months, it’s rallied nearly 40%. What on earth has happened in this magical world of crypto? Actually, in earlier articles, Shisan has already made it clear: this is the rule of how crypto prices rise and fall. The subdued market over the past year or so—Shisan never considered it a bear market. It was only a brief dip in a bull run. When the bull turns its head up again, it lifts in an instant. It won’t give retail investors any time to react. You won’t know whether you should get on—or even dare to get off. It’s incredibly uncomfortable. Take a look at the retail investors across the whole market right now: if they don’t have any positions in hand, are they going in or not? No one can give you a definite answer, because if Shisan tells you to get in and then it drops afterward, Shisan will instantly become the villain. So, as stated in the earlier article, stabilize first. Even if it truly takes off from here, we can still make money getting in on the right side.
Whenever a bear market comes, we see countless groups demanding rights protection. In this more-than-a-year’s dull market, everyone must have seen plenty of them too. People like “Thirteen” who can still be here talking to everyone in the same way now are few. Many so-called group-management platforms that used to provide signals are now involved in all kinds of rights-protection claims. But can you find him? Obviously not. He changes to another ID and comes back—maybe you’ll even fall into the same trap again. Everyone can take a look at some of the bigger bloggers now; many of them are in Dubai. It’s not that they want to leave their homeland behind—it’s just that they have to. Over there, they can do what they want, and their own IP can keep running. Even if they’re losing money with their followers, there’s always some people who end up profiting. Of course, there are many other reasons for going abroad. As for us, once you grow big, all kinds of trouble will come looking for you. Back then, there was a relatively big blogger who was doing crypto education and training—did it on a large scale, charged high fees, and made a lot of money. So what happened? Someone maliciously filed complaints and reports, and then they were subjected to all kinds of inspections. Although the person wasn’t really affected, the IP was gone, and the company had to disappear from the annals of the crypto world. That’s the cruelty of the crypto market. So “Thirteen” has been taking every step very carefully. If you can’t grow big, then I’ll just manage by laying back my pace—just chat in articles and keep things light. During this period, I even haven’t updated, to avoid being targeted by anything “unclean.” Before “Thirteen” got involved with fans—during the time when the market was good—there were nearly ten friends whose capital all exceeded one million. They trusted “Thirteen,” handed the funds over directly to “Thirteen,” and asked him to help manage trading. “Thirteen” refused. Given the market at the time and “Thirteen”’s investment strategy, they wouldn’t have lost money either. But among them, there must inevitably be 1–2 people who end up filing for rights protection claims—or even slandering “Thirteen.” That’s human nature.
What many people want to know now is how the next market move for “13” will look. Do you all remember what 13 previously told everyone—the Double Peaks theory? Imagine a double-humped camel. This round of movement is very likely to unfold like this: first it surges upward, then it falls back into a low valley, then it rises again, and only after that will it fully enter a bear market. So is this a bear market now? 13 believes this doesn’t count as a bear market. The real bear market is ten times more terrifying than what we’re seeing now. The crypto market is being affected too much by external forces. Of course, whatever happens in the future is just prediction—don’t go all-in on any single forecast, no matter who it comes from. So in the end, it’s all about controlling your position size to manage risks in the crypto space. As I always say: be able to attack when conditions are favorable and retreat with protection. When the market rises, you can get your meat; if the market crashes violently, you’ll have cash as a safety floor. If the market develops along its current path—once the U.S. bill is passed, the U.S.–Iran conflict is completely over, and the rate-cutting cycle arrives—then in the first half of next year, there’s a good chance we’ll see a second wave of peaks. At that time, I hope 13’s fans will all be there. When it happens, I hope everyone follows 13’s rhythm: don’t be greedy, and don’t think about taking the very last copper coin from the market. Be decisive and lock in profits. Recently, everyone has felt quite hopeless about the market. Please remember this: every market will rise and fall—it won’t keep dropping forever, and it won’t keep rising forever. Right now can be said to be the best period to enter gradually and bottom-fish. Conversely, it’s also the period when the “newbies/grass” would never dare to enter the crypto market. At the moment, only professional investors, institutions, and big players are quietly bottom-fishing. When a bull market arrives, they will harvest the newbies who got on the train. It’s the same in any investment market. Even if 13 repeats this a hundred thousand times in articles, this rule won’t change. 13 only hopes that the friends around 13 can avoid the fate of being harvested. Truly take control of your wealth in the crypto world.
Binance will delist six tokens—ACX, HFT, PIVX, PYR, VANRY, and VIC—on August 17. For a long time, “Thirteen” has hoped that Dahuang doesn’t touch junk coins. There are many reasons for this delisting—some are elaborate and varied—but the fundamental reason is that this stuff is essentially trash with no value. Many gamblers are especially fond of these coins, and even some people hold them in large positions. If you don’t lose money, who will? This time, it’s only these few coins that are being delisted. Back in the last-to-last bear market, when the market was down, dozens of coins were delisted all at once. Including the then-popular pai. Almost every time the market enters an undervalued phase, a large batch of junk coins gets gradually kicked out by exchanges. These coins can’t create any value for exchanges anymore. If there are sponsors behind these coins who keep hyping them, the exchanges definitely won’t delist them—at most, they might delist a little bit. Once these coins are delisted, they’ll disappear forever into the long river of history. In the entire crypto world, more than 80% of coin types are junk and have no value. It’s just that someone keeps hyping them, there’s sponsorship and backing, and the consensus of the “bagholders” is what allows them to exist. So for some less-mainstream coins, don’t hold them long term. You should enter and exit quickly—don’t have any sentimental attachment. In the future, exchanges will list many new coins. When the market is doing well, these coins will collectively come on stage. Everyone can “steal a chicken” and run—just don’t be greedy. This includes the Trump coin from before. At the time, there were people in the “Thirteen” circle who even challenged “Thirteen,” believing that this coin would rise to 100 U per unit. So please don’t ever trust the wealth-myth of “a hundredfold” or “a thousandfold.” That kind of bonus has already disappeared.
If you see a message like this on a plane, do not click the verification link under any circumstances. If you enter your mobile number and the verification code, and your exchange account is also registered with your mobile number, then all the coins in your account will be stolen in an instant. Please be extremely careful.
During this period, I hope everyone can rest well and not overwork yourself in the crypto world. Today, when I passed by a mall, I saw a room where a person was talking to a group of elderly ladies and gentlemen about the crypto world—about blockchain and about financial freedom. I listened for a bit. I felt that this teacher probably doesn’t even know what he’s talking about. The logic was all over the place, but one thing was very clear: he explained how to make money and how much you could make. A bunch of elderly ladies and gentlemen listened and got all fired up. Thirteen also hopes you’ll go take a look at your own elders—whether they’ve been drawn into a situation where “getting in” is a dead end. The Pi coin, which was very popular a couple of years ago—what’s its situation now? Countless old people rushed in, chasing what they think is a second spring of life. Some even mobilized all their relatives and brought everyone along to get it done. Of course, if you’re only mining, then it’s not too bad. But if you use real money to buy, then you’re basically done for now. These trends are starting to flare up again. Everyone must be careful and stay on guard. In the crypto world, there is no financial freedom without effort. Any way of making quick money is almost always a scam. During the current period, the market is extremely sluggish. Protect your principal. If you lose, then admit it—after all, for fans of Thirteen, at most you may only lose a little. Most of your principal won’t be affected. Most people are currently basically even or even making a small profit. If you accidentally fall into a scam, then it’s almost always a dead end: all your money will be talked out of you. Please be sure to stay cautious.
Come on, crypto people! Welcome to follow Thirteen—we’ll cross the bull and bear markets together and see through the world’s ups and downs in crypto.
Today’s on-chain data paints a classic picture of divergence: “giant whales buying while mid-sized players are selling.” According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin whales (wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC) accumulated 66,700 BTC worth about $4.3 billion last week, increasing their holdings for a third consecutive week. Meanwhile, mid-sized holders (wallets holding 10 to 1,000 BTC) sold 77,800 BTC worth about $5.0 billion. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that recent activity within the Bitcoin holder base has shown a clear split: large whales continue to add to their positions, while mid-sized wallets are selling at an ever faster pace. Historically, when supply shifts toward large holders, it often signals sustained price gains, because whale-level investors tend to hold through market cycles rather than actively trade. With Bitcoin’s supply cap fixed at 21 million, a reduction in net absorption by large wallets means less liquid supply is available to exchanges; this dynamic has supported price increases in prior cycles. Glassnode data shows that the share of Bitcoin supply in a loss state has risen to roughly 54%, for the first time ever surpassing the 46% of profitable supply. This implies that more than half of Bitcoin holders are in unrealized losses—typically seen near the bottom of a cycle. Thirteen’s take: Whale accumulation of 66,700 BTC is the most important on-chain signal to watch in the past few weeks. With U.S. institutions selling and global whales buying, this kind of structural divergence in history often corresponds to regions where periodic bottoms are being formed., This week’s focus: Will the U.S.-Iran military conflict further escalate July 28–29: the second FOMC meeting after Chair Powell takes office The Senate schedule for the CLARITY Act (the last window before August recess) Whether ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows
On the macro front, the FOMC meeting on July 28–29 is now in the countdown stage. This will be the second interest-rate decision chaired by Waller since taking office. Notably, Waller has, against expectations, kept his cards close to his chest regarding the Federal Reserve’s next move. At last week’s two-day congressional hearings on Capitol Hill, he made it clear that he has zero tolerance for persistently high inflation, vowing that the era of high inflation that has plagued the past five years will become a thing of the past. However, on the key question of whether to support an immediate rate hike, he has never sent a clear signal. According to CME data: The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 85.6%. The probability of a total 25-basis-point rate hike by September is 53.5%. The probability of a total 50-basis-point rate hike by September is 7.9%. Bank of America Global Research’s U.S. Economic Research Director said that Waller can “easily secure enough votes in the FOMC to push for a rate hike.” The June dot plot already shows that nine officials expect at least one rate hike this year, while six expect more than one. Thirteen’s take: The biggest highlight of the July FOMC is no longer whether there will be a rate hike, because in all likelihood there won’t be. The real focus is on how the dot plot will change—and whether Waller will break his silence at the press conference. With a 53.5% probability of a rate hike in September, the market is still pricing in the possibility of a hike.
At the geopolitical level, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate. The U.S. military has launched its 10th consecutive night of airstrikes on targets within Iran, while Iran has launched a strong counterattack, precisely striking commercial oil tankers along a key shipping route. On Monday, Trump said Iran would pay for the deaths of three U.S. servicemembers. The U.S. confirmed that at least three service members have died in recent clashes with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s ally in Yemen, the Houthi armed group, announced on Monday a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transport corridors, handling about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Oil prices are the market’s most direct signal. Brent crude briefly broke above $91 per barrel during trading on Monday, the highest level since mid-June. WTI crude was reported at $83.41 per barrel, and U.S. gasoline prices have since risen back to $4 per gallon on average. Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, warned that a significant slowdown in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the depletion of global inventories could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. However, oil prices saw a slight decline on Tuesday. Brent crude fell by about 1% to around $88.58 after Iran said mediators are working to push a plan to ease the conflict, but geopolitical uncertainty has far from dissipated. Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, and inflation is exactly what the Federal Reserve does not want to see. If oil prices remain elevated, the July CPI could start trending back up. The CPI data from June—which showed the first month-over-month decline in six years—may end up being just an outdated snapshot. Once inflation pressure reignites, the logic for Federal Reserve rate hikes will close the loop again.
The starting point of this rebound is precisely where the market shock last week originated. Last week, Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI released its latest Kimi K3 model, sparking concerns about U.S.-China AI competition. Semiconductor stocks then saw a large-scale sell-off, dragging the crypto market down in tandem. However, on Tuesday, Asian chip stocks led the rally, lifting global risk assets broadly. The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index rose 2%, ending four straight trading days of declines, with Samsung Electronics and TSMC as the main drivers. Benchmark indices in both South Korea and Taiwan rose by about 4%, while China’s mainland tech stock index surged nearly 7%. The correlation between the crypto market and chip stocks is becoming stronger by the day. Since the beginning of this month, the key forces determining Bitcoin’s direction have remained unchanged—the short-term direction has simply reversed. Previously, Bitcoin fell in line with declines in Asian chip stocks; now, as chip stocks rebound, Bitcoin has also climbed back to two-week highs. Although prices are up, given the macro uncertainty facing the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently at relatively low but still reasonable levels. Even though the market is still frosty right now, Shisan is very certain that this is a good time to enter. Unfortunately, human nature is such that chasing gains and selling into weakness is etched deep into our instincts. Shisan has also been in a kind of semi-hibernation lately, because there really haven’t been many new fans. Even if people follow Shisan, they likely won’t enter Shisan’s circle—everyone is in a period of tight capital. Only when the market turns upward will the Shisan circle become active again, but by then it will already be too late to catch the best entry opportunity.
These days, the market finally seems to be picking up. During this period, the market could be said to have dragged the entire crypto space into a gloomy, stagnant mood. Today’s chart finally has bulls lifting their heads in relief. On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged violently. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $66,808, the highest level since June 15, up 3.86% over the past 24 hours. At one point during the session, it even touched a high of $66,800. From last week’s low, it has rebounded by more than $4,000. Ethereum has been even stronger, rising to $1,941, up 4.26% over the past 24 hours. XRP climbed 3% to $1.13, while Solana rose 2% to $78. In the past 24 hours, the entire cryptocurrency market has rallied across the board. Bitcoin suddenly surged back and reclaimed $66,000. Let’s, after the fact, take a look at what the reasons might be. There are three layers of good news: first, chips; second, the ETF; and third, the CLARITY Act breaking through.