defioasis

Predict Fun Daily fee capture has reached a new high after the end of the World Cup

On August 21, Predict Fun’s daily fee capture neared $150,000

- Crypto market fees contributed by ultra-short-term predictions represented by BTC Up/Down accounted for nearly 60%

- Dota2, currently the official focus and heavily incentivized, has become the second-largest fee-contributing market

- Besides Dota2, CS2 has also become one of the top five fee-contributing markets, and the entire Esports segment contributed over 25% of daily fees

The strategy is very clear: Predict Fun is using a differentiated experience driven by being friendly to Chinese-speaking users plus esports/local events to compete against Polymarket

The Chinese-facing audience is the real top draw—rolling from the World Cup to events like Dota2/CS2 has kept the momentum going, and the record-high fees show the localization strategy in Asia is working

It looks like Crypto’s biggest open-source data website, Dune, is also starting to struggle...

From going from 10c per single refresh to pay-per-credits, from partial table downtime and maintenance, to starting to charge, and then turning free users into read-only mode

The cost of operating data keeps rising. Profitability depends on unstable revenue from paying C-end members, while B-end customer expansion seems to lag behind its competitor, Allium.

Another issue is that there seem to be fewer and fewer reliable analysts. On one hand, there aren’t that many on-chain topics left to analyze; on the other hand, teams using a “blockworks + artemis” style mode tend to achieve a higher average quality.

Introducing AI analysis is a highlight—Dune CLI and MCP reduce on-chain analytical capabilities to the extreme. However, verifying the authenticity of the data still poses a certain barrier, and the paid pricing isn’t cheap. There may not be enough Native users willing to pay for it long-term.

Dune is still here, but the halo of being the largest open-source data community is gradually being worn down by the realities of cost and commercialization

After the World Cup, esports appears to be gradually becoming a new growth catalyst for prediction markets.

After launching prize and points incentive programs for DOTA 2 matches, Predict Fun’s daily active trading address count doubled, nearing 30,000.

Judging by the number of trading addresses, the DOTA 2-related market has become the second most active trading market on Predict Fun, behind Crypto Up/Down.

In terms of trading volume, another major esports event, LOL, has also entered the ranks of Predict Fun’s top trading volume markets.

As for the esports market, Predict Fun’s coverage of events and its understanding of Asian entertainment culture together create a unique advantage.

Leading in storage profits

On major exchanges such as Binance, OKX, Bitget, Gate, and Bybit

SanDisk SNDK has been reigning at the top for a long time, becoming the largest trading-volume asset for TradFi Perp perpetuals

On Binance, one SNDK accounts for nearly 30% of TradFi Perp daily trading volume

On some exchanges, such as OKX and Gate, SNDK’s share can reach 45% or more

Besides SNDK, the storage sector’s SK Hynix and Micron MU are also among the top TradFi Perp CEXs

The two major prediction markets’ Perp perpetuals are continuing to move forward

- Polymarket Perp open interest exceeds $30 million
- Kalshi Perp daily trading volume has returned to $500 million – $700 million

What’s interesting is that Polymarket Perp open interest is 2 times that of Kalshi Perp, but trading volume is only 1/10 of its.

The Hyperliquid HIP-4 at the current stage can only be considered a half-finished product.

The number of active markets for HIP-4 has dropped to single digits, and daily trading volume has been slashed by half again and again, leaving only $400,000–$500,000.

Previously, the Validator deployed Outcomes markets completely for free; plus, with the World Cup’s massive hot streak ending, there’s even less motivation to launch new markets.

With the introduction of a HIP-3-like model into the event contracts market, we’re expecting to see a mature Deployer deploy a large number of markets on HIP-4.

Although it’s predicted that overall trading volume in prediction markets will continue to decline, event contracts on ultra-short-term price rise/fall predictions that get listed on CEXs have already become the trend.

Going forward, it’s likely that this will expand from Crypto short-term price predictions to TradFi underlying assets such as commodities and stocks.

Hyperliquid has released an event contract HIP-4 Phase 2 technical update

HIP-4 will become more flexible—Outcomes and configurable fees for the Deployer can be added later

Markets deployed by the Deployer can collect fees on their own, similar to HIP-3; the base fee multiplier is between 0 and 10

After the next upgrade, the Outcomes markets deployed by Validators will also start charging fees, with average fees of about half of spot trading fees

Robinhood Chain will distribute 10% of its net protocol revenue to Arbitrum

Of this 10%, 8% goes to the Arbitrum treasury, which is considered additional revenue for the Arbitrum chain; 2% goes to the Arbitrum Developer Fund to fund development, which is considered a cost

In July, the revenue shared by Robinhood Chain with Arbitrum was $357,200; after deducting the Developer Fund, the revenue was $285,800, accounting for about 34.8% of Arbitrum’s total revenue

Entering August, Robinhood Chain had already shared $143,000 with Arbitrum; after deducting the Developer Fund, the revenue was $115,000, accounting for about 45.2% of that month’s total Arbitrum revenue

It can be expected that Robinhood Chain’s revenue-sharing will become increasingly important for Arbitrum’s revenue

However, for ARB token holders, the net benefit to holders is always 0

Kalshi is going public?

According to a report by The Information, Sequoia Capital and Wellington are currently in talks to invest in Kalshi, with the valuation reaching $40 billion

Compared with the previous round’s $22 billion valuation, this round is nearly doubling again

Sequoia participated in four rounds of Kalshi’s fundraising, three of which took place in the past year—wildly propping up the price

Wellington is a new investor. It often invests in companies close to the IPO stage, which may suggest that a Kalshi IPO is already on the schedule

With the adjustment to Binance Alpha's bStocks trading volume rules

On-chain trading volume for bStocks has fallen from a daily peak of $1.1 billion to less than $100 million

The number of active addresses and the number of trades have also been cut in half

However, even so, bStocks' on-chain daily active data remains significantly higher than other tokenized stock products

Binance's exclusive advantage is that it can quickly be integrated into its own chain, Alpha, and ecosystem, creating a synergistic effect—one that other players are hard to surpass in the short term

After the World Cup, the prediction market is going through difficult years similar to those that followed the U.S. presidential election back then.

Prediction markets with daily trading volume exceeding $1 million

Whether at the top or mid-tier

Measured by weekly or monthly trading volume, it is in a downward trend

Within the weekly trend, Kalshi, Predict Fun, and Limitless all have smaller declines in trading volume, at around -5%

A Builder fireplace affiliated with Polymarket Developers has announced it will shut down

From going live on the mainnet in late January to closing just a little more than half a year later, it even raised $1.5 million during that time

After the World Cup ends, the prediction markets may be heading into a winter, which is even more damaging to small terminal platforms

While the number of Polymarket Builders is over 450+, weekly trading volume has been declining for 5 straight weeks, and there may be quite a few smaller platforms that will shut down next

In the Robinhood Chain trenches

There are 17 meme coins with more than 10,000 holders, including

- 8 for Noxa launched
- 3 for Pons
- 2 for Uniswap - Pools
- 2 for Bankr
- 1 each for Lunch and Virtuals

Robinhood Chain Emitter Showdown

Looks like the stage/platform Pools launched by Uniswap are also doomed to be short-lived

On the other hand, flap’s stability has always been relatively strong, but its problem is that it can’t produce high-market-cap tokens

Less than two weeks after launch, Robinhood Chain has already contributed 420,000 UNI burned

Robinhood Chain has entered the top 4 chains in UNI burn history, accounting for over 5%

At this pace, with the current DEX activity levels, it’s estimated that by the end of this month the amount of UNI burned on Robinhood Chain will surpass Arbitrum

Based on UNI burned across the whole chain over the past 7 days, the annualized value of UNI burned exceeds $87 million

Investor 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino, who participated in four rounds of Polymarket funding, strongly supports Polymarket

- Polymarket’s monthly website traffic reaches 43.1 million visits, exceeding the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and competitor Kalshi, with a marketing budget lower than many similar apps

- Polymarket holds a dominant position in on-chain prediction markets; on-chain trading is crucial for achieving information transparency and global accessibility

- Polymarket US is already on track and has made strides in both product and business

Since this year, Polymarket has become the largest use case for stablecoin trading on the Polygon network.

Over the past three months, the Polygon network’s average monthly stablecoin Transfer transaction volume has exceeded $80 billion, with Polymarket accounting for more than 30% of the stablecoin Transfer transaction volume.

In July, Polymarket’s stablecoin Transfer transaction volume reached $26.25 billion, which is more than 10 times higher than the same period last year.

Polymarket Builders trading volume fell for 4 consecutive weeks, returning to the level from one month before the start of the World Cup

Builders with nominal trading volume of over $5 million decreased from a peak of 13 to just 5

- betmoar $30.39m
- Gate $26.61m
- traderline $19.31m
- PolyCop $7.26m
- polymtrade $6.95m

From the perspective of assets held by Polymarket, it can be broken down into four parts:

- pUSD balance: $475 million
- Polymarket TVL: $318 million
- Polymarket US open positions: $77.72 million
- Polymarket Perp TVL: $31.81 million

Polymarket’s asset peak occurred during the World Cup period, when the total of the four items reached over $1.1 billion at one point.

Although it has declined from the peak, compared with the recent decline in daily trading volume, the drop remains within a manageable range—the retained funds are still fairly good

Polymarket International surpassed a cumulative trading volume of $100 billion in July

Despite the World Cup ending and Polymarket International’s monthly trading volume falling by more than 35% compared with June

Polymarket US has still been setting new highs in succession—its trading volume has exceeded $4 billion for two consecutive months. It feels like we may see US trading volume overtake International within this year

In the United States, regulated prediction markets are also Kalshi’s foundation. And now the US is becoming Polymarket’s most core growth driver