David-1

I feel like a lot of people around me are hoping to see a repeat of the early-2023 bull market, but I don’t think there’s much chance we’ll break below that 75,000 support level. Here’s what caused things to play out that way in 2023:
- March 3: Silvergate Bank, which had many crypto clients, began winding down, and Coinbase started cutting ties with it;
- March 7: In testimony to Congress, Powell said inflation was still stubborn and interest rates might need to go higher and stay there for longer;
- March 8: Silicon Valley Bank faced a bank run, then regulators took it over, making it one of the largest US bank failures since 2008;
- March 10: Circle disclosed that it had about $3.3 billion deposited at SVB, and the USDC depeg worsened, with USDC briefly falling to around $0.87;
- March 11: Another crypto-related bank, Signature Bank, was also shut down by regulators;

I’m not saying another black swan event like this is completely impossible—just that the odds are very low..... My current view is that if last night wasn’t the bottom, then we’ll probably dip to around 78,000–79,000 sometime in the next day or two.

I think what’s more worth looking back on is how, early in the last bull market, BTC bounced back after a pullback and then surged 45% in just two weeks, despite all those black swan events—from rate-hike fears to major blowups.

Early bull markets always surge amid FUD. Treasure the chance to build a position at these low levels, and don’t get shaken out by a little volatility early in the bull market. #比特币反弹至8.3万美元

I think the moats around crypto businesses are actually much deeper than people think. After all these years, when people think of lending, they still think of Aave; for DEXs, it’s still Uni and Ray; in Asia, it’s USDT for stablecoins, while in the West and on-chain, it’s USDC; for CEXs outside the West, it’s Binance, while in the West, it’s Coinbase; for perp DEXs, it’s Hype. Even in launchpads—the business with the most challengers and the shallowest moat—people still use Pump to play memecoins.

All of these businesses have faced challenges from newcomers, many of them formidable competitors. Some were short-lived; others could only capture a tiny slice of the pie or carve out a niche on a new chain.

For most businesses in crypto: product strength defines user habits > user habits determine liquidity > liquidity, in turn, determines product competitiveness.

Trying to predict how low or how high Bitcoin will go in the short to medium term is one of the most pointless things you can do. It’s enough to have a rough, general idea in mind;

What matters is knowing what you should do when it gets there—and being able to take the right actions you believe you should take.

The purest relationship in this world is the one based on money, and the noblest thing you can do is make a fair deal.

Picture this: It’s the middle of the night—just before dawn. It’s pouring rain (or snowing heavily), and you have a fever. You need some fever-reducing medicine.

All you have to do is open Meituan, JD.com, or Taobao. For less than 10 yuan in delivery fees, the delivery guy will bring the medicine right to your door in half an hour.

Now imagine asking your boyfriend or girlfriend to bring it. Or your best friend. Or even your parents or your son.

Think about it.

Why is the crypto primary market dying so fast? We were once one of the most active investment firms, and over the past decade, we’ve seen the problems become increasingly clear. First, the narratives have collapsed: from white papers and institutional endorsements to inflated TVL, the market basically no longer buys it. Second, supply is out of balance. There are now tens of thousands of projects, making it extremely difficult for excellent ones to stand out. Third, the 1➕3 vesting mechanism is essentially designed to kill VCs, letting projects, market makers, and exchanges exit first. Fourth, there’s the cost of getting listed. Why do primary-market projects now need high valuations and large funding rounds? Mainly because listing on several leading exchanges costs an average of tens of millions of dollars. VCs have plenty of problems too, but without substantial VC support for the primary market, all that’s left is active token-launching syndicates and MEME coins. The primary market is a vital source of crypto innovation, and industry leaders need to genuinely focus on building. For example, Binance should improve its listing criteria; under its current model, even Vitalik’s ETH wouldn’t have been listed on Binance back then. Next, the 1➕3 vesting mechanism should be abolished altogether. VCs take on the greatest risk and shouldn’t be saddled with the worst vesting terms. Whether a project succeeds or fails is fundamentally not up to VCs. Finally, crypto projects need to return to generating real revenue and buying back tokens. The most important factors behind the U.S. stock market’s sustained prosperity over so many years have been earnings growth and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. That’s what industry leaders should be doing, so that secondary-market investors can find genuinely high-quality projects.

I grew up in Shenzhen.

Hot dry noodles, zhajiangmian, rapeseed oil, stir-fried dishes drenched in oil, and chili peppers.

The brain fog never went away. I felt chronically inflamed, weak, and exhausted.

No discipline. No ambition. No sense of control over my own life.

Then I discovered the “Thin Muscle” diet—and it gave me a new life.

The crypto market has been bearish since October 2025 for half a year; although Bitcoin has only fallen by a bit over 50%, 99% of altcoins have been in such a sorry state that it's hard to watch—many are even worse than in previous bear markets.

Now

Things are looking better

A bull market is here

And the most efficient way to make money in a bull market is to trade seriously

So, based on all of the above, it can be concluded: at a time like this, putting your energy anywhere other than trading is disrespectful to the bull market, disrespectful to opportunities, and disrespectful to yourself for having endured the bear market.

Messing around, wasting emotions—what’s the point? #Zcash现货ETF首现周度净流出9360万美元

What your fortune is like after National Day, belike:

People in the comment section saying “Take it 💸”
#ETH

🚨 Nonfarm payroll released
This 2.9w number is extremely favorable—everything is so good the market is going to panic

Wow, director is awesome. All the talkers today, come and show off for me. Historical data revised downward, and the rate-hike probability is dropping again

The non-farm payrolls report is landing tonight, and what’s really worth watching may not be the jobs data itself, but whether it can keep pushing down expectations for a rate hike in October.

Right now, the market has already priced in about a 23% chance of an October hike. A few days ago it was still around 70%, so expectations have clearly eased.

So if this NFP report only keeps the probability around 20%, or even if the data comes out and pushes it back up again, risk assets may very likely lose momentum.

What I’m hoping for more is this scenario:
NFP deals another blow, pushing the odds of a rate hike down to around 10%.

That would create another stretch of expectation vacuum in the market, allowing risk assets to keep climbing for a few more days, and maybe even carry this week’s rally through.

As for the later rebound in rate-hike expectations, there’s really no need to worry. What truly needs to be avoided is the market just beginning to relax, only for the NFP release to immediately yank those expectations back up.

The data is only the surface. The real game tonight is how pricing moves.
#非农就业数据

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Victoria Harbour—Wishing everyone a Happy National Day🎉

Fireworks🎆—From the view of the Kimpton Suite

The taste of money💸

After Williams’ remarks, the CME’s probability for the Fed to raise rates in October has dropped to 47%.

Don’t rush to assume risk assets will take off just because oil prices have fallen.

Now the market is being quite realistic:
You can look at positive news first, but the money won’t immediately re-bet just because of a single day’s change.

There have been too many swings in macro expectations ahead of this.
What investors care about now is—whether this is really a turning point, not just another brief fluctuation.

If oil prices continue to fall, the $90 area is decisively broken and held there, and the subsequent data do not push inflation expectations back up again, then it will be different.

That would mean the line the market is worried about is starting to loosen.

Only then might these “seemingly ineffective” positive developments from today slowly begin to show up in prices.

As for the stock market and the crypto market, their current positions, valuations, and capital structures are different.
So even if the macro logic is the same, the final performance will definitely be different #股票财报季

$ETH People say the crypto market is all about cycles—“one cycle every four years.” But I’m increasingly feeling that this one really is different.

What’s different isn’t the pattern, but the rhythm of time and space has changed.

Historically, whether it’s the transition from a bear to a bull market, or a major-level rebound within a bear market, when ETH enters a deep correction from its high, the decline often reaches around 80%.

Remember this number.

Now look at this round:

In terms of space, the correction hasn’t fully played out yet. If we estimate it using the historical 80% retracement level, ETH’s corresponding position should be around 2430.

That’s what I mean by “different.”

Looking at the time * space* dimension of this correction: in the past, corrections of this scale often lasted a long time. But this time, the correction cycle is being shortened again and again.

Now look at the chart:

1. The major-level correction has already played out. Now we’re entering the most grinding “tail-end行情” — not necessarily the steepest decline, but usually the most torturous: repeated tug-of-war, repeated shakeouts.

2. The position where the correction has retraced 80% is roughly around 2430. Unless there’s a macro-level black swan event, this is likely to serve as the end point of the correction.

Cycles haven’t disappeared. It’s just that this time, the timing and magnitude of the cycle may be getting repriced.

Seeing a picture, hahaha, I have to say, Big A is still unbeatable. We’ve been professionally trained; normally we wouldn’t laugh…#BigA

Rooted in #BTC

The extension of rootedness; the prerequisite is always “preparation”;

When the opportunity comes, that’s when you can seize it.

The crypto world is much the same. If you truly love it, calm down and focus on learning, and improve your trading system;

In the beginning, learning may take two or three years before you make any money. But once you’ve mastered it, the returns from those two or three years can be earned back within a single month.

On-chain entities holding 100,000 BTC suddenly reduced their holdings by 25,000 BTC after BTC broke above $86,000. This is the first major de-risking action by this group since April this year.

At present, it seems the market may be able to absorb this wave of selling pressure, though the pressure may not have fully transmitted to the secondary market yet. We should closely monitor subsequent actions to determine whether this is a one-off event or a sustained trend.

This could affect BTC’s price performance over the next 2–3 months
#本周Strategy与Strive增持2305枚BTC

No ability to catch hackers.

No ability to do security management.

And even less courage to admit their own mistakes.

So all they can do is vent at a tool that turns a hacker into a way to make money.

It’s like a group of people driving Teslas robbing a bank. Instead of going after the robbers or reporting to the police, they all go to Musk and demand that all Tesla cars stop working.

Ridiculous.