大嗯BNB

The August nonfarm payrolls figure was 162,000, nearly three times the expected 56,000 and more than five times the monthly average over the past year.
BTC fell from 82,000 to 79,553, a drop of about 2.8%. The probability of a September rate hike jumped from 43% back to 59%, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 7.6 basis points, and the U.S. dollar index climbed back to 99.3.
But what is most worth analyzing is not how much BTC fell, but that gold fell and then recovered, while BTC did not.
After the nonfarm data was released, gold initially dropped more than 2%, from $4,469 to $4,376—then gradually recovered, eventually closing down only about 1.2% near $4,419. Over the same period, BTC fell from 82,000 to 79,553, a larger decline, and did not show the kind of recovery gold did.
This divergence shows one thing: in the market’s view, gold and BTC have asymmetric ability to cope with rising rate-hike expectations.
The reason gold was able to recover its losses is that institutions judge its function as a hedge against government debt risk to be real. Even if rates rise, the demand logic for gold still holds. BTC has not yet fully established this identity; to a large extent, it is still being treated as a high-beta risk asset sensitive to interest rates—when rate expectations rise, opportunity costs rise, and selling pressure appears.
But two things show that BTC’s "digital gold" narrative was not broken by this data. The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 75 "greed" zone after the nonfarm release—sentiment did not collapse. The structure of continuous net inflows into ETFs is still intact, and there was no large outflow because of today’s data.
The 162,000 nonfarm number removed the dovish condition from Waller’s stance—he said "if the data continues to be good," and this report was clearly too good. At the September 16 FOMC, Warsh now has rate-hike-supporting data, but also the option not to hike—because a single month of data cannot change the employment trend, and July was still -23,000.
The next key point: September 11 CPI. If CPI comes in soft and offsets the hawkish shock from nonfarm payrolls, Warsh will have a pause excuse of "strong employment but cooling inflation."
BTC’s "digital gold" story is not over; it just got tested today.
What do you think—after this nonfarm report, will the divergence between BTC and gold continue to widen, or will it narrow? Share your view.
$BTC

#BTC

$80,000 held, and today opened at $81,271.
Fed official Waller said something last night: "I lean toward supporting keeping interest rates unchanged."
The probability of a September rate hike dropped from 63% to 50.4% overnight — ETFs then recorded their biggest single-day inflow in nine months.
$80,000 has turned from resistance into support, marking the most important level shift of the year.
Next resistance: $82,000-$82,800; if this is broken, shorts will be squeezed on a large scale.
Today’s nonfarm payrolls data will be released later, with expectations for 55,000-65,000 new jobs — the only variable left in Waller’s conditional statement.
If nonfarm data is weak, $85,000 opens up. If nonfarm data is strong, $80,000 will be tested again.
$BTC
#btc触及80000美元

BTC is around 82,000, continuing the rally driven by Waller’s dovish signal. But today I want to talk about something else.
The procedural vote date for the CLARITY Act on September 15 has already been confirmed, and this is the last realistic window in 2026.
Then I looked around at industry views, and it was a bit quiet.
One line in CNBC’s report left a deep impression on me: "Many have already concluded that the CLARITY Act is dead in 2026." It’s not pessimism, it’s resigned—the kind of mindset where, after waiting too long and being delayed too many times, you completely accept that "it probably won’t pass this year."
How much effort has this industry put into pushing this bill? Lobbying expenses, political donations, White House meetings, CEOs speaking out collectively... yet it’s still stuck in the same place: it needs 60 votes to break the filibuster, it needs at least 7 Democratic cross-party votes, and those 7 votes still haven’t materialized.
That’s not all. The key on September 15 is not the final vote, but the procedural "motion to invoke cloture"—if this hurdle isn’t cleared, the bill won’t even get to a substantive vote. The Senate only has 14 working days in September, and then it enters the midterm election cycle; what attitude the next Congress will have is still unknown.
The bill isn’t dead, but it isn’t alive either—it’s in that suspended state where it can neither give people certainty nor disappear completely.
Ironically, even without the CLARITY Act, the institutional inflows the crypto market needed have still arrived. BTC has risen from 64,000 to 82,000, and ETF inflows reached $3 billion in a single month. There’s no regulatory framework, but the money came in.
This shows two things: institutional allocation demand does not depend entirely on legislative progress; and if the CLARITY Act really passes, the incremental capital released would be even larger, because the money that has come in so far is only from the part of institutions willing to bear uncertainty.
On September 15, we’ll get the answer.
Is there anyone in the square who has already stopped expecting the CLARITY Act to pass this year? Share your current mindset.
$BTC
$XRP

Bad news again for the CLARITY Act today: the Senate has reduced by 8 the number of voting days left, and the legislative window is even narrower than last week’s expectations.
The impact on the crypto market is a slow blade.
If the bill passes: the CFTC will gain authority to regulate spot markets, XRP’s commodity-like status is locked in, the institutional entry channel opens up, and BTC and major coins all have catalysts.
If the bill is delayed until 2027: the regulatory gray zone will persist, institutional compliance departments will keep getting stuck, and smart money will continue to wait.
Now the Senate returns on September 14, and the effective legislative time left is only a few weeks—still stuck in a head-on conflict between the banking industry and the crypto industry. The ICBA is calling for closing the stablecoin rewards loophole, while the crypto industry won’t give ground.
Galaxy Research sets the probability of passage this year at about 29%.
Those betting on this are watching from the sidelines today.
$BTC
$XRP
#clarity法案面临延迟参议院减少8个投票日

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touches 4.803% today, the highest since November 2023.
The last time this number appeared, BTC was at $35,000.
Now BTC is at $77,000.
The market’s question isn’t whether yields are high—but whether the Fed will truly raise rates on September 16. The probability of a rate hike is currently about 65–68%. If the September 5 jobs data comes in strong, this number will continue to rise.
$79,000 is today’s bulls’ line of defense. Hold it and wait for the jobs report; if it breaks, look toward $76,500.
Before the data is released, every position you take is a bet on a report.
$BTC
$QQQ
#美国10年期美债收益率触及2023年11月来最高

SOL drops about 3% to around $99, alongside ETH and XRP as they lead the decline among the top ten cryptocurrencies—during the same period, BTC falls below $76,500, while oil prices break above $93.
There’s only one reason: macro risk aversion. The U.S. military strikes Iranian targets again today, causing market risk sentiment to contract across the board. As a high-beta asset, SOL’s decline is larger than BTC’s.
But there is one coordinate worth remembering: SOL at $99 today, versus $63 a month ago. The month-to-date increase is up more than 35%; today’s 3% pullback is a normal retracement of that rally, not a trend reversal.
Two key technical levels matter most today: $100 is the crucial integer level for SOL’s breakout this round—whether it can hold through the close will determine the strength of the structure. $95–$96 is the first support below; if that breaks, the market may look toward the prior high dense zone of $89–$90.
Today’s ETF data flows against the tide: SOL spot ETF saw net inflows for five straight days this week. In a risk-off mood, institutional behavior is a key point to watch in judging whether SOL can rebound quickly.
With the odds of further rate hikes at 65–68% + tensions in the Middle East heating up + whether $100 can hold—three things are weighing on SOL at the same time.
$SOL
#solana
#solana跌逾3%

On September 3, BTC hovered around 78,000 to 79,000 and formed the "Bart Simpson" pattern that technical analysts talk about—an abrupt spike, sideways consolidation, a sharp drop, and then another period of sideways movement, with the price returning to the starting point.
This pattern usually appears in thin, directionless ranges, and is a typical market reaction while it waits for clear signals.
Then I saw two news items appear almost at the same time, which made me both laugh and want to cry.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said he is "confident" the CLARITY Act will be passed.
SALT CEO John Darsie, speaking at Jackson Hole, said, "Personally, I’m more pessimistic about the CLARITY Act being passed."
One is the head of the regulator responsible for enforcement, and the other is an industry veteran who has spent years in Washington—two people who know the bill inside out gave completely opposite assessments.
The disagreement itself is more real than any probability figure could be in reflecting the situation right now—CLARITY Act is scheduled to be voted on on September 15, and nobody really knows what will happen. Polymarket’s odds of approval bouncing between 58% and 20% are the result of the market repeatedly changing its mind under the same uncertainty.
On-chain data is also issuing warnings: exchange BTC reserves have continued to rise after August 25—more BTC flowing to exchanges suggests holders are preparing, and potential selling pressure is building. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative again, indicating that domestic U.S. demand hasn’t stabilized yet.
Two key hurdles—September 15’s CLARITY Act and September 16’s FOMC—are getting closer, but the direction is getting more and more murky. Today’s JOLTS job openings data is the second of five data releases this week, and any surprise will reprice the probability of rate hikes.
The "Bart Simpson" pattern, two authorities singing opposite tunes, and on-chain warning signals all showing up on the same day—that’s the real state of affairs for the September opening.
In the square, is anyone judging the probability of the CLARITY Act passing completely differently from everyone else? Share your logic.
$BTC
#BTC

BTC has been trading sideways around 77,000 to 78,000. Global bond markets are facing selloffs, and the market is waiting for one thing: whether this week’s data can reset the pricing for the September 16 FOMC.
This week has the highest information density since September—a cluster of five key data points compressed into five days: September 2 ADP employment, September 3 JOLTS job openings, September 4 ISM Services PMI plus Fed Governor Waller’s remarks, September 5 ADP Beige Book, and September 6 the official August nonfarm payrolls report.
With these five data releases, any direction they point to will reprice the probability of a September rate hike. Current market pricing is close to a 60% chance of a rate hike—up after Warsh’s hawkish speech, but July’s nonfarm payrolls came in weak at -23,000. If August nonfarm payrolls remain soft, the 60% hike probability will be quickly corrected, easing the macro pressure on BTC.
At the same time, the CLARITY Act’s official September 15 voting date has been confirmed. CFTC Chair Selig has expressed confidence in its passage—this is the first time, among supporters of this year’s bill, that a positive stance has been taken at the level of officials responsible for regulation. This isn’t a political statement by legislators; it’s the judgment of the head of the executive agency—on a very different signal scale.
Put these two together: macro data determines September 16’s FOMC pricing, and the CLARITY Act determines the September 15 regulatory framework. The two milestones are a day apart. Today’s ADP employment data is the first datapoint that can help gauge the direction in advance.
ADP’s private employment numbers were only 44,000 in July. If August remains lackluster, the “soft landing + no rate hike” narrative will regain dominance, strengthening the buy-side logic around BTC near 77,000. If ADP beats expectations, nonfarm expectations will likely rise as well, giving the rate-hike camp fresh ammunition.
This number today is worth watching closely.
What’s your plan for these five data releases this week—are you going to wait for the results before acting, or position early? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC

Dell shares rose about 9-10% after hours—this is the most important earnings report so far this year for AI infrastructure.
Let’s get the numbers straight first:
Q2 revenue was $46.97 billion, beating expectations of $44.92 billion, up 58% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $7.04, beating expectations of $4.92—by about 43%. Full-year FY2027 guidance calls for $192.0 billion in revenue, well above analysts’ expectations of $173.8 billion; full-year EPS guidance is $25.50, above expectations of $18.92.
But the most important line tonight came from Dell’s AI server guidance:
"AI server revenue will triple this year."
Six months ago, Dell predicted it would double. Today they changed it to triple.
New AI server orders in the quarter were $60.9 billion, a record high; ending backlog orders were $95.0 billion—also a record.
Also climbing after hours: HPE +6% (a positive reading-through effect for the peer group), Super Micro +2.4%, GitLab +20% (its standalone earnings beat expectations), MongoDB +5%.
For BTC: Dell tonight used concrete order numbers to confirm that AI infrastructure demand is accelerating—not slowing down. "AI narrative" is the single most important indirect support for this year’s BTC rally—tonight Dell provided the strongest one-time validation in history. The probability of further rate hikes (65-68%) is weighing on BTC, but AI demand confirmation is supporting risk appetite—both forces are present tonight.
$BTC
$NVDA
#美股盘后戴尔涨近9%gitlab涨20%

The CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting at 65–68%, up from 36% before the Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech by Powell—more than doubling.
JP Morgan Wealth Management strategist officially updated the forecast today: expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting—JP Morgan’s first shift in 2026 from “no hikes” to “hikes.”
There are also two data releases today: JOLTS job openings (10:00 AM ET) + ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET).
The importance of these two sets of data is not just the numbers themselves, but the five-day data window starting today:
Today: JOLTS + ISM Manufacturing; Friday, Sep. 5: August nonfarm payrolls; Sep. 10: August CPI. With three sets of data, each set on its own could push the 68% probability higher toward near certainty, or pull it back to below 30%.
Powell has made it clear that he will not tell the market in advance what number would trigger a rate hike—meaning the 10:00 AM ET data today is not an input parameter, but the market’s verdict.
Direct impact on BTC today: rate-hike probability 68% → US dollar strengthens → non-yielding assets face pressure → BTC continues to trade under pressure around $79,000 today. But the three data windows are not over yet—if any one comes in below expectations, the 68% will quickly fall, and BTC will be freed from the pressure.
This year’s Sept. 16 FOMC is the most important FOMC of the year. Today is the last complete update of market information before that decision is made.
$BTC
$QQQB
#美联储加息概率升至68%

BitMine Immersion Technologies increased its holdings by 53,501 ETH over the past week, bringing its total stash to about 5.9 million ETH—close to 4.9% of the total ETH supply of 12.07 billion.
What’s even more noteworthy is the behavior pattern behind this number: it has been buying continuously for 65 straight weeks, starting from June 30, 2025, with no weekly interruption.
In terms of scale, this has already pushed beyond most people’s imagination—one company holds close to 5% of the total supply of the world’s second-largest crypto asset. This level of concentration in the crypto market is almost unprecedented, except for Strategy’s approach to BTC.
BitMine’s chairman, Thomas Lee, has named this goal “5% Alchemy.” The logic is not complicated: it continuously generates ETH returns through a staking strategy (MAVAN staking operations), uses cash flow to support ongoing accumulation, and forms a self-reinforcing accumulation loop.
Whether this strategy can be sustained depends on three things: the ETH price must be able to support the company’s balance sheet; staking rewards must cover operating costs; and the market must not experience extreme pressure that forces them to liquidate.
For now, all three conditions still hold. ETH has risen more than 20% this month; BitMine’s latest round of financing provides ammunition for continued buying; and staking rewards are already running.
From a market-structure perspective, with 5.9 million ETH locked on BitMine’s balance sheet, plus Ethereum’s 34.4% staking rate—an appreciable proportion of ETH is in a non-liquid state. On the demand side, with institutional ETFs seeing net inflows for 10 consecutive days, circulating supply is contracting, which is the most basic support logic for price.
After the Glamsterdam upgrade is rolled out, mainnet throughput increases and the burn rate rises, bringing deflationary pressure back. BitMine’s “5% Alchemy” bet is precisely on this long-term narrative.
How deeply do you think the move by a company to lock up close to 5% of ETH’s total supply into its treasury will affect ETH’s long-term price structure? Share your view.
$BNB

$ETH
#ETH

Gold fell from its three-month high of $4,697 on August 25 to around $4,436 today, down 5.5%, and it has broken below the 200-day moving average—its first time making multiple closing below this line since early June.
Gold was still up about 10% for August, the strongest monthly performance since September 1999. Then Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole: the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 55.7%. The U.S. dollar strengthened as a result, and in the final few trading days, gold rapidly gave back roughly $300 of its gains.
The logic behind the drop is clear: gold yields nothing; the higher the interest rates, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold. "The market is pricing in a possible rate hike in September, the dollar at a 13-month high, and lower inflation expectations—all of which put heavy pressure on precious metals."
Technically, there is a specific warning line: $4,300 is what analysts describe as the "line between bulls and bears"—if the weekly close breaks below it, the next technical target is $3,400 (corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci extension of this year’s April high). Today’s $4,436 is still above this level, but not by much.
However, Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end target of $4,900, citing central bank gold-buying demand of roughly 60 tons per month—this figure provides structural downside support. Fidelity also keeps a moderately bullish stance.
For BTC: gold and BTC are both being restrained today by rate-hike expectations. They are priced within the same interest-rate expectations framework. If rate-hike expectations cool further, both have room to rebound; if a hike actually materializes, both face pressure.
$XAUT
$BTC
#黄金较三个月高点下跌5.5%

NVIDIA announced that it will purchase $3.5 billion worth of MediaTek convertible bonds—NVIDIA’s largest single direct investment outside the United States. In a Bloomberg TV interview, Jensen Huang called it “a large-scale engineering alignment between our two companies, with a plan that spans the next decade.”

Collaboration details: MediaTek will use NVIDIA’s NVLink Fusion and the newly announced NVHBM technology to help large tech companies and supercomputing customers design custom AI chips, and enable those chips to plug directly into NVIDIA’s ecosystem for data centers dominated by NVIDIA.

Forbes today used a word that captures the most essential strategic intent behind this deal: a tollbooth.

Big tech companies (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are developing their own AI chips to replace NVIDIA’s GPUs, which is NVIDIA’s biggest long-term threat. Investing in MediaTek is saying: you can develop your own chips, but those chips must connect to NVIDIA’s NVLink ecosystem, use NVIDIA’s interconnect standards, and run through NVIDIA’s infrastructure—NVIDIA may not necessarily sell you the chips, but it will collect the “toll” for the infrastructure.

Alphabet also participated in this round of MediaTek’s $3.9 billion convertible bond issuance, though it did not disclose the specific amount.

On the same day, Amazon AWS announced the deployment of an additional 2 million NVIDIA components—when the two announcements are combined, they reinforce the same signal: supercomputing customers are fundamentally reducing their reliance on NVIDIA GPUs, but NVIDIA is becoming increasingly irreplaceable at the platform and interconnect layers.

For BTC: AI infrastructure investment continues to accelerate; NVIDIA’s “tollbooth” strategy confirms that AI demand does not rely on a single product—this provides medium- to long-term support for the broader tech narrative and risk appetite.
$BTC
$NVDA
#英伟达拟向联发科投资35亿美元

The FTC, along with more than 20 state attorneys general, filed a lawsuit against Amazon in the federal court in Seattle, accusing Amazon of secretly manipulating ad reserve (floor) prices over the past seven years, extracting additional tens of billions of dollars from advertisers. Amazon’s share price fell by about 2.5%–3.3%.
The core alleged conduct: Starting in 2018, Amazon secretly injected its own bids into ad auctions (internally called “soft floors”), artificially raising the price advertisers actually paid, while advertisers were unaware. Executives tracked the “surcharge” revenue generated by this strategy and deliberately limited outsiders’ understanding of the mechanism.
This is the FTC’s third-largest case against Amazon. Last year, Amazon settled a Prime subscription fraud case for $2.5 billion; another antitrust case is not set for trial until next year. The advertising business contributed $68 billion in revenue for Amazon in 2025, making it the second-largest revenue source—just behind AWS. This is not a peripheral business being sued; the core business model is being called into question.
Amazon denies all allegations, saying its systems accurately reflect ad value and that “similar practices are common in the digital advertising industry.”
On BTC and the broader market: The FTC lawsuit comes at a time when oil prices are already elevated (Brent around $90) and renewed expectations of FOMC rate hikes (September probability about 40%). Today, U.S. stocks are broadly weak overall. BTC has held near $79,000 today and has not shown any clear reaction to this news. This is a market driven by macro narratives, so the transmission effect of a single company’s regulatory event is limited.
$BTC
$QQQB
#美股收跌亚马逊遭ftc起诉

In August, U.S. crypto-linked stock indexes rose 8.81%—behind this number lies the biggest single-stock divergence of the year.
Put this month’s figures together:
Bullish (Bullish Exchange) rose 46% for the month—Q2 earnings beat expectations and it also launched a tokenized stock trading platform; Coinbase rose about 25%; Circle rose about 22%; MARA rose about 21%; MSTR rose about 29% (the strongest week).
In the same month: Cipher Mining fell 33%—Q2 revenue was far below expectations, and New York State issued a pause order for new data center construction; Core Scientific fell 24%—a $1.16 billion quarterly loss compounded with the failed acquisition of CoreWeave.
In a market where BTC rose 26% in the same month, two directions coexist.
CoinDesk summed up the month today in one line: “In August, crypto stocks rise or fall based on earnings, not on BTC.”
This is the most important structural change in the crypto-stock market this year: when BTC climbed from $64,000 to above $80,000, it’s no longer the case that all crypto-linked stocks rise together—stronger fundamentals overperform, while weaker ones fall even in a bull market.
How the market prices crypto stocks has started to resemble the way ordinary growth stocks are priced: cash flow, gross margins, customer quality, and execution ability.
In one sentence: the index’s 8.81% gain is an average—between Bullish’s +46% and Cipher’s -33%. Today, it’s no longer an era where you win just by buying a basket.
$BTC
$MSTRB
#美国加密关联股指8月涨8.81%

The U.S. Department of War announced it would provide Alcoa with equity financing of $174 million to build a gallium production facility at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia. The project is expected to produce 100 tons per year and account for up to 10% of global supply.

Partners include Australia’s Export Finance Agency, the Japanese government, and Sumitomo Corporation. The plant officially began construction on August 25.

What is gallium, and why it matters:
Gallium is a core raw material for high-performance semiconductors. It is used in AI chips and in millimeter-wave radar for data centers, satellite communications, missile guidance, and thermal imaging sensors. At present, about 98% of global gallium production comes from China—this share is higher than that of any other type of critical mineral.

In 2023, China introduced export controls, and in 2024 it fully banned direct gallium exports to the United States. Western governments have taken this gap seriously since then.

The strategic significance of this plant today isn’t the $174 million itself, but that it was the first to demonstrate a scalable alternative pathway: extracting gallium from alumina refinery byproducts. It does not require mining new ore, and it uses Alcoa’s existing facilities to produce gallium as a byproduct—this is the lowest-cost way to route gallium around China’s supply.

Linkage to the crypto and AI markets: A gallium shortage is one of the potential bottlenecks for expanding AI chip production capacity. Today, this project alleviates that bottleneck—if the supply chain is stable, AI hardware capacity expansion will proceed more smoothly, providing long-term support for the BTC AI narrative.
$BTC

#美国拨款1.74亿美元建澳大利亚镓厂

August wraps up: BTC is up nearly 25% in the month—its strongest August since March 2024. Just when things felt like they were easing, opening the September calendar gives me a bit of a headache.
In September history, it’s the third-weakest month of the year for the crypto market. Liquidity tightens seasonally, and a large number of institutions do quarterly rebalancing at month-end, concentrating the pressure from profit-taking.
And this month, it has to clear two hurdles at the same time.
First hurdle: The CLARITY Act Senate vote on September 15. The approval probability given by Polymarket has crashed from a historical high of 58% to below 20%, then rebounded again by the end of August. That level of violent fluctuation in the probability itself suggests the market hasn’t been able to reach a stable, confident view on the outcome. If it passes, it would be the biggest positive regulatory catalyst for crypto this year; if it’s delayed again, sentiment could quickly pull back.
Second hurdle: The September 16 FOMC meeting. After Warsh’s hawkish speech, CME FedWatch shows a 61% probability of a 25 bps rate hike, and Barclays goes further, predicting two rate hikes in 2026. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell said: "I think it’ll be another hawkish pause, but you have to respect the non-zero probability of rate hikes."
Two hurdles—one determines the industry’s regulatory framework, the other determines macro liquidity. And yet, both are happening in the same historical month when liquidity is thinnest.
BTC is currently trading sideways below the macro downside resistance line. Analyst Rekt Capital points out that a breakout above this resistance would imply the current bear market cycle is shorter than previous cycles—but before a breakout, it’s still a structure of macro Lower Highs.
On September 9, the Treasury expanded the bond repo facility—that’s the only certain positive liquidity support for the month. The market reaction on that day is the first test to see whether the underlying logic behind August’s rally can continue.
How the whole month plays out depends on which of these three gets priced first: the September 9 repo expansion, the September 15 vote, or the September 16 FOMC. The combination of the order and outcomes determines whether September is a digestion period of consolidation or a second wave of upside.
Does anyone in the square find the combo of "triple pressure stacking on top of seasonal weakness" for September a bit headache-inducing? Tell me how you plan to respond.
$BTC

There’s one thing most people are overlooking this week, because everyone’s been focused on Jackson Hole and FOMC expectations.
Anthropic’s AI model reduced the amount of work required to crack a mainstream post-quantum signature candidate by 67 million times.
Then, BTC and ETH both released their respective quantum-secure migration plans in the same week.
The timing coincidence is itself pretty interesting—whether Anthropic’s research directly triggered action, or whether the two events just happened to line up. Either way, the result is that the crypto industry responded faster to the perceived threat than many people thought.
First, let’s clarify the magnitude of the threat. Breaking BTC’s elliptic-curve cryptography with quantum computers—under current technical routes—still requires millions of qubits, while the most advanced quantum computers today have only a few thousand. This isn’t “it’ll be cracked tomorrow,” it’s “something that needs serious attention over the next decade.”
Anthropic’s research lowers the barrier for post-quantum cryptography research, but it doesn’t directly compromise BTC’s existing security mechanisms.
ETH’s migration plan is more specific. The roadmap after the “Glamsterdam” upgrade clearly includes quantum-safe mechanisms, with implementation expected between 2027 and 2029. In the BTC community, discussions are about introducing a post-quantum signature algorithm via a soft fork, but the timeline and exact approach are still under debate.
One thing I want to lightly complain about is this: whenever a technical risk emerges, BTC’s response speed tends to look slower than ETH’s because of the nature of its consensus mechanism—not because developers aren’t trying, but because any protocol change requires global agreement between miners and node operators, and that process is much slower than centralized decision-making.
But that’s also its moat—no one can unilaterally change the rules, including to address quantum threats.
This is something worth tracking continuously—not because something will happen tomorrow, but because it’s one of the most important technical main storylines for crypto protocol upgrades over the next five years.
Have you adjusted your assessment of the long-term security of BTC and ETH because of advances in quantum computing? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
$ETH