大嗯BNB

The Ripple Swell 2026 conference opened in New York and runs through October 29.
This is Ripple’s largest industry conference of the year, and the period when major XRP-related announcements have been most concentrated over the past few years— institutional partnerships, payment corridor launches, regulatory progress, and new product releases. Historically, XRP volatility around these three days has been far higher than on ordinary trading days.
Here’s the current backdrop: XRP is trading at around $1.30–$1.31 in October, down about 6% for the month and notably weaker than BTC, which is down 1% over the same period. This relative weakness isn’t due to a problem with XRP’s fundamentals. Rather, the broader market is waiting for the FOMC meeting on October 28 and for a clearer macro direction. Capital is flowing into BTC, putting pressure on altcoins across the board.
But Swell is a catalyst independent of macro conditions.
Here are a few relevant data points: XRP ETFs saw $117.4 million in inflows in September alone, their strongest monthly figure since spot XRP ETF products launched. The market currently puts the probability of the FOMC pausing rate hikes in October at 83.9%. If the macro outlook is confirmed on October 27, that could give XRP a macro tailwind as well. XRP’s spot price is near $1.30, with resistance above at $1.37 and $1.48.
Swell conference announcements typically deliver the most information on the first day of the event. This year, areas to watch include progress on institutional expansion for RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin; new compliance tools for the XRP Ledger; and details of payment corridor partnerships with traditional financial institutions.
I’m not saying XRP will rise to a specific target because of this conference—Swell’s outcomes vary from year to year. Some years bring a sharp rally; in others, the price “drops as soon as the conference ends.”
But one thing is certain: over the next three days, XRP-related news will be far more concentrated than at any other time. This is one of the most important periods to watch this month.
Do you have an XRP position? How are you planning to trade during this period? Let us know.
$XRP
$BTC

On October 19, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Clarity Act (H.R. 10357) by a vote of 38–5. It includes a provision of particular importance to crypto investors: establishing a voluntary disclosure program specifically for digital assets that would significantly reduce penalties for proactively reporting unpaid taxes.
First, let’s look at how difficult things are under the current system. The IRS’s existing Voluntary Disclosure Practice (VDP) is designed for willful tax evasion: taxpayers must submit a written statement of admission under oath, disclose every crypto wallet they have ever used, and agree to pay all taxes owed—which may include a 75% civil fraud penalty. Even applying does not guarantee acceptance.
But a substantial share of crypto tax violations are not cases of intentional tax evasion at all; they result from the complexity of the rules themselves. Are crypto-to-crypto trades taxable events? How should cost basis be calculated across multiple platforms? How should staking rewards be treated? Many ordinary users get these things wrong. Under the current VDP, people in this situation who come forward face criminal-level penalties designed for “willful tax evaders”—which is clearly unreasonable.
The bill’s key provision is that the Treasury Department must establish a crypto-specific voluntary disclosure program within 12 months of the bill’s enactment. Taxpayers who proactively disclose within 12 months after the program is established would receive the following treatment:
0% penalty on the first $25,000 in tax underpayments; 5% penalty on any amount above that.
The current 75% fraud penalty would no longer apply to non-willful violations.
The bill has not yet become law—it still needs to pass the full House and Senate and be signed by the President, so the process is not short. But its passage by the Ways and Means Committee, 38–5, shows bipartisan agreement on this approach; it is not a fringe proposal.
What this means for the market: if enacted, the bill would give many crypto investors who have been afraid to report voluntarily because of steep penalties a path to compliance. This would encourage more taxpayers to address past tax obligations and reduce legal uncertainty around tax issues across the industry—both of which are among the barriers to institutional adoption.
U.S. crypto tax policy is shifting from “deterrence” to “guidance.”

$BTC
#irs拟降低加密案件税务披露罚款

SpaceX announced that it would acquire nationwide 800 MHz spectrum licenses held by private equity firm Grain Management for approximately $8 billion in cash. That same week, the FCC approved the Starlink Mobile Gen2 constellation plan—up to 15,000 satellites, optimized specifically for the 2 GHz band.
Taken together, these two developments mean SpaceX has secured both “high-band” spectrum (satellites, 2 GHz, high bandwidth) and “low-band” spectrum (800 MHz, strong building penetration and broad coverage). Most existing phones already support 800 MHz, so users can connect without upgrading their devices.
But there’s a technical reality: satellites alone can’t provide sufficient coverage indoors in cities or in densely populated areas. SpaceX’s own FCC filing makes this clear—it plans to install ground-based radio equipment at cell sites, on rooftops, and at other locations.
Bernstein analysts estimate that if SpaceX wants to build a nationwide terrestrial mobile network, it would need 30,000 to 120,000 sites, depending on the scale of coverage, at an investment of $50 billion to $130 billion. The U.S. builds just 1,200 to 2,000 new cell sites a year—far too slowly to meet that need. SpaceX will likely have to lease a large number of existing towers from Crown Castle, American Tower, and SBA Communications.
After the news broke, Crown Castle rose 13% in a single day, American Tower gained 7%, and SBA was up 6%. These three companies had previously been most worried about Starlink bypassing terrestrial cell sites to connect directly to phones. Now they could become its biggest potential landlords.
What this means for $SPCX: this strategy takes SpaceX from a “satellite broadband company” toward becoming a “full-stack mobile operator,” putting it in direct competition with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. The latter three fell more than 6% in a single day. But this transition will require enormous capital, and SpaceX already has $38.4 billion in debt.
Whether it can really break into the market will depend on how quickly it can build out its terrestrial network.
Do you think SpaceX will become America’s fourth-largest mobile operator?
$SPCXB
#SpaceX

POLYX is a compliance-focused blockchain designed specifically for security token issuance, with a core focus on the RWA (real-world asset tokenization) sector. It touched an all-time low of $0.0276 on August 18, then gradually stabilized.
On the 1-hour chart:
The price rebounded from a low of $0.03265 and is currently at $0.03477, up 1.58% on the day. The consolidation range in the green box is roughly $0.0341–$0.0361. The price is now hovering near the top of the range, with a noticeable increase in trading volume—a typical signal ahead of a breakout, though it could also be a false breakout. The key is whether the price can close and hold above this level.
Looking at the moving averages: MA7 and MA25 are converging, with no clear bullish alignment yet. MA99 is still overhead, acting as resistance, which suggests this rebound is still in its early stages.
The RSI is around 47, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for both bulls and bears.
Polymesh launched its v8 mainnet upgrade in July this year, its biggest technical update since going live in 2021. It is also testing Confidential Assets, a feature that lets institutions conduct private securities transactions on-chain. This puts it at the intersection of three narratives—RWA, compliance, and privacy—and there is a fundamental rationale behind it.
But price action and fundamentals are two different things. POLYX is down 95% from its all-time high of $0.75, so there is still a long road to recovery.
My key level to watch: whether it can close above $0.0361 on the daily chart will be crucial in determining whether this rebound has staying power.
Are you building a position in POLYX?
$POLYX #POLYX

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, sent a letter to the parliamentary Committee on Finance. Its wording was cautious, but the message was clear: lawmakers should start preparing the legal framework for the possible introduction of a digital krona.

First, some background. Sweden launched its e-krona research project in 2017, making it one of the world’s earliest central banks to explore a CBDC. But in 2023, a government inquiry concluded that there was not enough need to issue a digital krona at that stage, and the project was effectively put on hold.

Three years later, the Riksbank itself has brought the issue back to the forefront, citing three reasons:

First, the ECB’s digital euro project is moving ahead. EU trilogue negotiations are expected to conclude in 2026. Although Sweden is not in the euro area, if the digital euro becomes widely used across Europe, the Swedish krona payment system could gradually be sidelined in cross-border transactions.

Second, the potential threat posed by foreign-currency stablecoins. The letter states directly that if stablecoins pegged to foreign currencies become attractive for everyday transactions, the use of the krona itself within Sweden could come under pressure. That may sound like a distant concern today, but the Riksbank believes it should not be taken lightly.

Third, the question of timing. The Riksbank estimates that even if preparations for legislation began now, it would take at least five years to go from legal amendments to technical implementation. So the point of starting now is not to say “we’re going to issue one,” but to “open the door”—so that it won’t be too late if one is needed in the future.

It is worth noting that the letter makes no decision on issuance and sets no timetable. The Riksbank was clear: whether to issue a digital krona is a political decision, not one the central bank can make unilaterally.

But viewed in the context of the global CBDC landscape, the message is clear: the shift from “there’s no need” to “we can’t afford not to prepare” is itself a statement.

Stablecoins are forcing sovereign currencies to reassess their own digitalization plans, and that pressure is spreading from the dollar to the euro area, the Nordic region, and Asia. Every country is taking a different path, but the direction is becoming increasingly consistent.

Do you think CBDCs will ultimately compete with stablecoins—or replace them?
$USDC
#瑞典央行敦促重新评估电子克朗

Gold (XAUUSDT) fell to $3,994.52, dropping below the $4,000 mark for the first time since July, down 2.36% on the day.
A look at the backdrop explains the logic behind this drop: Gold rallied from around $3,800 in early October, briefly reaching a record high of $4,381 on October 20. It gained nearly 16% in three weeks, and those gains were the “trade tension premium”—the market had priced in the risk of worsening U.S.-China relations.
Now that expectation is starting to ease. At the ASEAN meeting, U.S. and Chinese negotiators reached a provisional working framework. Restrictions on rare earth exports may be eased, and the risk of 100% tariffs has declined. Trump said he “feels very good about making a deal with China,” and a meeting between the two leaders has been added to the APEC agenda.
As the safe-haven rationale weakens, gold prices fall. CPM Group put it plainly: this pullback is unwinding the trade tension premium that built up over those three weeks.
ETFs are selling too—the largest single-day outflow from gold ETFs since May occurred last Friday, with institutional investors actively reducing their holdings.
What this means for crypto: Gold and BTC have not been highly correlated this year, but both fall under the broader “de-dollarization/safe-haven assets” narrative. Gold’s decline suggests improving market risk sentiment and cooling demand for safe havens. Against this backdrop, capital may shift toward risk assets, which could be a short-term positive for BTC.
Keep an eye on two things: the Fed’s rate decision (this week) and the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping. If either sends a dovish signal, gold could remain under pressure, while BTC may benefit in the opposite direction.
With gold falling below $4,000, do you think this is a temporary pullback or a trend reversal?
$BTC $XAUT
#黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元

Trump is invoking the Defense Production Act to expand oil production. This needs to be viewed as a series of actions, not a one-off policy.
On April 20, Trump signed five executive orders formally invoking Section 303 of the Cold War-era Defense Production Act (DPA), designating oil production, refining, and logistics infrastructure as “industrial resources essential to national defense.” This effectively gives the federal government a blank check: it can provide direct financial support, guarantee financing for projects, and bypass local and state approval processes.
In September, Vice President Vance announced that the DPA would be used to support the expansion of a Texas refinery in partnership with the Delek Group. This is the first time in the DPA’s history that it has been used directly for the expansion of a single refinery. Traditionally, the law has been used to address strategic supply-chain shortages, so targeting a refinery itself is a signal.
On October 9, Reuters, citing three sources, reported that Trump was preparing to issue another presidential memorandum directing agencies to find ways to bypass state-level regulatory hurdles and further lower diesel prices. The backdrop is the November 3 midterm elections, with diesel prices near historic highs.
The bigger picture: Rising risks around the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict with Iran, combined with surging electricity demand driven by the AI infrastructure boom, have led the Trump administration to frame energy supply as a national defense issue rather than a market issue.
The transmission path to crypto is straightforward: downward pressure on oil prices → lower inflation expectations → a greater likelihood that the Fed will continue cutting rates → a weaker dollar → gains for risk assets, including BTC. But this is a long-term thesis. The DPA is not an instant fix, and infrastructure projects have long lead times.
In the short term, the policy’s direct impact in putting downward pressure on oil prices is uncertain—the supply shock from the situation in the Middle East cannot be offset immediately by new U.S. refineries. The market is pricing in the signaling value of “Trump continuing to push the energy independence narrative” more than anything else.
Energy prices ultimately affect inflation, inflation affects the Fed, and the Fed affects BTC. Are you keeping an eye on this chain of events?
$BTC
#特朗普援引国防生产法扩大石油产能

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635 million in net outflows in a single day.
Breakdown across three issuers: BlackRock’s IBIT saw $254 million in outflows, Fidelity’s FBTC $217 million, and ARK’s ARKB $109 million.
This wasn’t the largest single-day outflow of the year—larger outflows occurred in September and at the start of the year—but against the backdrop of a difficult October, the figure stands out.
Ethereum ETFs also saw outflows of $110 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at $75.5 million and ETHB at $17.2 million.
Looking at October as a whole: BTC ETFs have recorded more than $1 billion in net outflows so far this month, while ETH ETFs are nearing $1 billion—making this one of the worst months for outflows this year.
These outflows came against a specific backdrop: in early October, BTC slid from around $80,000 to lower levels, while the Nasdaq was also under pressure. The peak week of earnings season (Meta and Tesla), combined with elevated 10-year Treasury yields, left overall risk sentiment defensive. In this environment, institutional investors trimming their ETF positions makes sense.
But there’s one contradiction worth watching: BTC ETFs are still seeing net inflows year to date; October has simply been quickly eating into the buffer built up over the previous months. If upcoming earnings data improves risk sentiment, the return of capital could also be rapid.
ETF flows are a barometer of institutional sentiment, not a direct driver of prices—but consecutive net outflows often mean that short-term incremental capital is waiting for a better entry point, rather than actually leaving the market.
What do you make of this wave of outflows—is it a shakeout or a real retreat?
$BTC
$ETH

Celestia has launched Eden, an EVM-compatible chain designed specifically for AI Agents. TIA jumped 16% that day, reaching a new price high for 2026.
Eden’s concept isn’t complicated, but it fits the 2026 AI narrative perfectly: enabling AI agents to trade, make payments, and issue tokens onchain autonomously, without human intervention. Eden uses the Celestia mainnet as its data availability layer, and TIA is Eden’s native gas token—every transaction on Eden directly drives demand for TIA.
Block times are 100 milliseconds, or 10 blocks per second. Eden’s first testnet project is called Botfun—AI Agents issue and trade tokens based on narratives they generate themselves. It looks like a pretty wild experiment.
Celestia’s official positioning is measured: it calls Eden “a tool for measuring how much blockspace demand autonomous Agents can create.” Not a promise—just a measurement.
But one data point is worth noting: from September 18 to October 15, the daily volume of data rollup projects submitted to Celestia fell by about 26%. Before Eden launched, Celestia’s actual usage was already shrinking.
So the underlying logic behind this rally is that the AI Agent narrative and expectations of demand for TIA as a gas token have gotten ahead of real usage data.
TIA climbed from $0.47 on October 10 to a high of $0.769, before facing resistance at $0.80. The RSI is nearing 74, suggesting it’s overbought in the short term.
Whether Eden can genuinely drive onchain transaction volume is what will determine if TIA can keep rising. The narrative is already priced in; now it’s time to watch the data.
Can Eden generate real onchain demand from AI Agents? What do you think?
$TIA
#celestia涨16%创2026年新高

#BinancePick
The next day, Ben was still there

Twice a year, the crypto market gets “held hostage” by U.S. stocks: during Q1 and Q3 earnings season. And right now, we’re in the busiest stretch of the latter.
This week (October 19–23) is the peak of the entire Q3 earnings season, with 70 S&P 500 companies reporting results. The main events: SpaceX (Tuesday), Netflix (Tuesday), and Meta and Tesla (both after the market closes on Wednesday).
Why does this matter to crypto?
The short-term correlation between the Nasdaq and BTC has stayed between 0.5 and 0.7 this year. Last week (October 13–17), the Nasdaq fell about 2.5% for the week, and BTC also pulled back to the $80,000 range. The mechanism is simple: when risk appetite rises, institutions add to both BTC and tech stocks; when it falls, they reduce exposure to both.
There are several key points of divergence in this week’s earnings to watch:
Meta: Q2 EPS came in well below expectations ($6.18 vs. the expected $7.19), due to a one-off tax expense—not a deterioration in the business. Ad revenue actually beat expectations. Q3 revenue is expected to be $6.1–6.4 billion, with AI-driven ad efficiency in the market’s spotlight. Its full-year capex guidance of $130–145 billion will also face repeated scrutiny.
Tesla: Q3 deliveries came in at 486,500 vehicles, about 5% above expectations. But revenue is expected to be down roughly 2% year over year, with margins under pressure from pricing. What Musk says on the earnings call often has a bigger impact on the stock’s direction than the numbers themselves.
SpaceX (already reported): It posted its first-ever quarterly profit, while its AI computing rental business grew about ninefold year over year—directly boosting market sentiment toward the AI infrastructure sector.
The structural logic is this: if Meta and Tesla can reassure the market about AI spending, the Nasdaq could recover, increasing the odds that BTC rises alongside it. On the other hand, if guidance is cautious or capex gets out of control, risk appetite could weaken further, and $80,000 may remain a resistance level.
Earnings season isn’t just about individual companies; it’s about the market repricing its consensus on whether “AI spending is still worth it.”
Once this week’s earnings are out, do you think their impact on BTC’s direction will be more bullish or bearish?
$BTC $SPCXB
#股票财报季

After market close on October 20, SpaceX released its Q3 earnings report—its first quarterly profit since going public, with net income of about ¥700 billion (approximately $4.7 billion).
That figure needs some context to understand why it matters.
SpaceX went public this June at an IPO price of $135, raising about $85.7 billion in the largest IPO in history. Its market cap briefly topped $2 trillion on the first day of trading, but then fell by nearly half over the next two months. The reason was simple: Q2 revenue beat expectations ($7.8 billion, up 92% year over year), but the company still posted a net loss of $541 million and spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures in a single quarter, most of it on AI infrastructure.
The market’s thinking at the time: the company was burning through cash too quickly, and profitability was nowhere in sight.
Q3 broke that assumption.
The main driver of SpaceX’s first-ever profit was its AI business. In Q2, the AI division generated $2.6 billion in revenue, up 247% year over year. Analysts’ Q3 estimate then jumped straight to $6 billion, as the contract for Anthropic to rent the Colossus data center for $1.25 billion a month began to be fully reflected in the results in July, alongside new contracts with customers like Google. The description “AI business revenue 9x” refers to this growth curve.
The business model is straightforward: buy Nvidia GPUs, build data centers, then rent them to companies like Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. It’s the same logic as Starlink—build capital-intensive infrastructure and recoup the investment through rental income.
But one detail is worth noting: these AI computing contracts have 90-day termination clauses, so customers can choose not to renew at any time. The revenue surge is real, but whether it can continue will depend on future renewals.
One other variable: about 1.3 billion shares will be unlocked after the Q3 earnings release—more than the entire IPO offering. Even with strong earnings, that potential selling pressure shouldn’t be ignored.
What position is SPCX holding now?
$SPCXB

Is today the first day? How should I play?
Which track has the highest chance of winning?

#BinancePick

Japan was one of the earliest countries to take action on stablecoins, but progress was slow—until it began to accelerate over the past couple of years.
It all started in 2023. That year, Japan amended its Funds Settlement Act, separating stablecoins from crypto assets and defining them as “electronic payment instruments.” Only banks, money transfer service providers, and trust companies are allowed to issue them, and they must be backed 100% by yen deposits or government bonds.
Once the legislation was in place, things started heating up. In October 2025, Japan’s first compliant yen stablecoin, JPYC, went live. Issued by JPYC Inc., it is pegged at 1 yen = 1 JPYC, settles in seconds, and costs less than 1 yen in fees. The country’s three megabanks—MUFG, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho—have also announced plans to jointly issue a stablecoin by March 2027, with the Financial Services Agency officially backing the initiative.
The Digital Agency is now discussing an even bigger idea: using stablecoins for public benefit payments.
The logic is straightforward. In July 2026, the Japanese government’s “Priority Plan” set out a clear direction: use My Number (the personal identification number system) to create a system for the government to pay citizens directly. Integrating stablecoins into this system would solve the last mile of benefit payments: programmable on-chain payments that are traceable, arrive 24/7, and incur almost no fees.
Compared with traditional bank transfers, the efficiency gains from using stablecoins for benefit payments are clear. The challenge lies with users: cash and credit cards are still the norm in Japan, and stablecoin wallet adoption remains extremely low. In January 2026, SMBC ran a pilot that enabled direct JPYC payments using My Number cards, without requiring users to install a separate wallet app. This approach aims to overcome that final hurdle.
Yen stablecoins are still at an early stage, but the Japanese government is now discussing them as part of its public infrastructure framework. That sends a very different kind of signal.
Do you think yen stablecoins can become a mainstream payment method in Japan within five years?
$USDC

#日本国交相将研究稳定币退税

Last October, NEAR cut its annual issuance rate from 5% to 2.5%. The way it was carried out was interesting: the community vote failed to reach the 66.67% threshold, but the core team pushed the code into an upgrade package anyway, leaving validators 30 days to decide whether to accept it.
It passed in the end. But validators including Chorus One publicly criticized the move: If the vote didn’t pass, what do you call it when you push it through anyway? Governance?
This history matters because the same scenario is now unfolding for a second time.
On September 30, Sal Ternullo, CEO of NEAR treasury company SVRN, proposed a new plan on the governance forum: cut the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, phased in over 24 months, while lowering the annualized staking rate from about 5.4% to 3.5%.
The reasoning behind the numbers: NEAR issues about $140 million worth of new tokens each year, while its TVL is only about $157 million and annual transaction fees are under $3.2 million. Put simply, the network is using high inflation to subsidize security costs, even though there isn’t enough usage to justify those costs. Halving issuance would mean issuing about 970,000 fewer NEAR each year.
But this proposal signals something more far-reaching: SVRN also mentioned the idea of a “fixed supply” on the forum. It’s not part of this vote, but co-founder Illia Polosukhin has already publicly endorsed similar ideas. If NEAR really moves toward a fixed supply, that would mean a completely different valuation model.
The vote is still underway. Clearing the 66.67% threshold is the first hurdle; if it passes, validators will still need to go through another round of the upgrade process.
History tells us that even if the vote fails, the core team might still push it through—but that would provoke a backlash over governance.
The outcome of this contest is worth watching more closely than the “inflation cut” itself.
If you hold NEAR, what impact do you think this vote will have on the price?
$NEAR

#near投票拟将年增发率降至1.6%

In my previous post on ZEC, I analyzed the NU7 upgrade and the controversy over 22,000–25,000 coins frozen in the Sprout pool. I initially thought this would create bearish pressure.
Unexpectedly, it surged 8.5% in just 24 hours on October 21.
Looking back at this rally, there are a few clues worth piecing together.
First, the broader privacy narrative is still alive. Naval Ravikant kicked off the first wave last year when he called “ZEC insurance for BTC.” Arthur Hayes later followed with a $10,000 price target, and ZEC climbed from just over $20 in October 2025 to an eight-year high. That narrative hasn’t faded.
Second, Grayscale has already renamed its ZEC trust “The Zcash ETF,” and its NYSE Arca listing application is still awaiting SEC effectiveness. Expectations of institutional investment have continued to build.
Digging further back, ZEC gained 16% in a single day on July 26—the catalyst was Binance announcing its support for the NU7 upgrade and hard fork. Then, just a day later, we saw the same recipe: news of a network upgrade paired with a technical-breakthrough narrative, and ZEC took off.
After the 30% crash in June triggered by the vulnerability scare, the mainnet was fixed within eight weeks, and the price soon reached an eight-year high. The market has been more forgiving of ZEC than expected.
Today’s 8.5% gain was most likely driven by the same combination: the privacy narrative, upgrade expectations, and progress on the Grayscale ETF. It wasn’t a single catalyst—several factors were playing out at once.
Now around $480, with a year-to-date low of $34 and a high of nearly $700—do you think it can hold this level this time?
$ZEC
#zcash24小时上涨8.5%

JPMorgan has made a clear shift in its stance on BTC this year.
In February 2026, JPMorgan Chief Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou published a report setting BTC’s long-term target at **$266,000**.
The reasoning isn’t bullish sentiment; it’s a very specific quantitative framework: the volatility ratio of BTC to gold has fallen to a historic low of 1.5, suggesting that BTC is maturing as an asset class—its volatility is approaching gold’s, while the gap in market capitalization remains substantial.
Gold’s current market cap is around $28 trillion, while BTC’s is under $2 trillion.
If this volatility gap continues to narrow and institutional investors keep adding BTC to their portfolios, BTC’s theoretical upside is a linear extrapolation based on gold’s market cap—with $266,000 as the figure produced by this model.
Following this line of thinking, in September JPMorgan updated its outlook again: Bitcoin ETFs still have a large amount of open downside-hedging positions (put options), while similar hedges in gold ETFs have largely been unwound. Once this “insurance” weighing on BTC’s price eases, the odds of BTC outperforming gold could rise significantly.
BTC is now trading around $80,000, leaving 230% upside to $266,000.
Of course, this is a long-term target, not a prediction for tomorrow. JPMorgan itself has made that clear: this isn’t a forecast for the next 12 months, but a theoretical value “once volatility has converged,” and the time horizon could be several years.
But what’s interesting is the shift in the underlying logic: from “BTC is a speculative asset” to “BTC is an undervalued store of value.” This change in perspective is more noteworthy than the price target itself.
At the current price of $80,000, do you think this is a chance to get in, or is there still room to fall?
$BTC

#摩根大通预测比特币十年领跑

SpaceX has released its Q3 2026 earnings report, with revenue beating analyst expectations.
This is SpaceX’s second quarterly report since going public. To understand the significance of these numbers, we first need to understand how its businesses are structured.
In June this year, SpaceX listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Its IPO was priced at $135 per share and raised about $85.7 billion—the largest IPO in history. On listing day, it briefly made Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Two months later, on August 4, SpaceX released its Q2 earnings: revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and nearly $1 billion above expectations of $6.9 billion. All three business lines beat expectations, but the company reported a net loss of $541 million, and quarterly capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion. The stock instead fell more than 8% after hours.
After Q2, analysts raised their Q3 revenue forecasts to around $13 billion. The reason was straightforward:
Starting in July, Anthropic began paying $1.25 billion per month to rent SpaceX’s Colossus data center. The contract only began to be fully reflected in revenue in Q3. The CFO said it directly on the Q2 earnings call: the AI business could overtake Starlink to become SpaceX’s largest revenue source in Q3. The $6.7 billion in new cloud-services contracts signed in Q2 also began contributing to revenue in October.
Another key factor in Q3 is the lockup expiration: about 1.3 billion shares will become eligible for sale after the Q3 earnings report—more than the entire IPO offering. That means early employees and investors can start selling their shares, no matter how good the earnings numbers are. This was one of the major reasons the stock fell after the Q2 report, and the same pressure applies in Q3.
SpaceX’s story has never been about whether it makes or loses money in a single quarter. It comes down to one question: can the company get from its current quarterly revenue of $13 billion to the $1 trillion in annual revenue Musk has talked about?
Can its three engines—Starlink, AI computing rentals, and Starship launches—all hit their stride at the same time? This Q3 report is the first relatively real data point.
Do you have a position in SPCX at this price?
$SPCXB

An underestimated regulatory signal: Google has opened up crypto advertising in the UAE.
Not for everyone—the bar is clear:
To run crypto ads on Google platforms targeting users in the UAE, you must hold a license from one of these three authorities:
FSRA (Financial Services Regulatory Authority), VARA (Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority), or DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority).
You also have to pass Google's own advertising certification and comply with all local UAE legal requirements. Violations won't result in an immediate account ban; you'll first receive a 7-day warning.
This update has two key changes compared with the 2023 version: first, the DFSA has been added to the list of recognized regulators, covering licensed entities under the Dubai International Financial Centre framework; second, the scope of eligible advertising has expanded from “exchanges” to “exchanges + software wallets.”
Major platforms like Binance, OKX, and Crypto.com, along with local players BitOasis, M2, and CoinMENA, can now officially run ads on Google to reach users in the UAE.
The deeper logic behind this:
More than 30% of the UAE's population currently holds cryptocurrency, making it one of the countries with the highest adoption rates in the world. The country's sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala, also invested $436 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF this year. By opening up advertising access, Google is essentially acknowledging that this market is mature enough, and its regulatory framework clear enough, to warrant an official channel for compliant players to reach users.
From a regulatory perspective, this “build a licensing system first, then open advertising channels” approach is much like MiCA's path in Europe: compliant entities get their permits first, and then the ecosystem's infrastructure follows.
Whether crypto advertising is allowed is essentially a reflection of how mature the local regulatory framework is. The UAE has cleared this hurdle. Which major market will be next?
$BTC
#谷歌更新阿联酋加密广告规则