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What is a True Bear Market in Crypto?
In the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, the term 'bear market' is often mentioned, but few new investors truly understand its implications. Many entered the market in 2020-2021, or in 2024-2025, periods of euphoric rises, and have not experienced the intense bearish phases that have marked the history of cryptos. This article, inspired by a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), aims to demystify what a true bear market is, its consequences on prices, projects, and investor psychology, while providing advice on how to prepare for it.
Bitcoin and quantum risk: BIP-360 marks a turning point
Bitcoin reaches a significant milestone with BIP-360, a proposal aimed at reducing the exposure of public keys to potential threats from quantum computing.
⚠️ The BIP is not activated and has not yet reached consensus.
But it sends a strong signal: the Bitcoin community takes the quantum risk seriously; with or without pressure from institutional players like BlackRock.
What does BIP-360 propose?
BIP-360 introduces a new type of output: Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR).
Leon Waidmann, head of research at Lisk, stated on platform X that the daily volume of USDC transactions on Polygon has reached a record level, exceeding 12 million transactions, which far surpasses other blockchain networks. Among them, the daily volumes of USDC transactions on Base, Arbitrum, and the main Ethereum network are all below 3 million transactions.
$POL
$POL
The crypto KOL Edgy estimates that by 2025, about 85% of token launch projects will be in loss, including many projects backed by venture capital funds that are already struggling to achieve profitability.
According to data from Galaxy Research:
In Q2 2022, nearly 17 billion dollars had been raised by crypto VC funds in a single quarter through more than 80 new funds.
Today, the ROI of crypto VCs is in continuous decline, and the number of new funds has fallen to its lowest level in five years.
The 8.5 billion dollars invested recently does not correspond to new capital, but to reserves raised in 2022 still being deployed.
The total capital invested between 2023 and 2025 is approximately equivalent to that raised during the single year 2022.
Advanced conclusion:
The model "raise funds → launch a token → sell to retail" is gradually reaching saturation. With the decline of VC influence, projects with real users, actual revenues, and functional products should dominate the next cycle, while token distribution methods may evolve towards more equitable models that are less dependent on private sales.
According to data from Galaxy Research:
In Q2 2022, nearly 17 billion dollars had been raised by crypto VC funds in a single quarter through more than 80 new funds.
Today, the ROI of crypto VCs is in continuous decline, and the number of new funds has fallen to its lowest level in five years.
The 8.5 billion dollars invested recently does not correspond to new capital, but to reserves raised in 2022 still being deployed.
The total capital invested between 2023 and 2025 is approximately equivalent to that raised during the single year 2022.
Advanced conclusion:
The model "raise funds → launch a token → sell to retail" is gradually reaching saturation. With the decline of VC influence, projects with real users, actual revenues, and functional products should dominate the next cycle, while token distribution methods may evolve towards more equitable models that are less dependent on private sales.
Strategy prepares for an extreme scenario: Bitcoin at $8,000.
The company led by Michael Saylor claims to have structured its balance sheet to withstand a major drop in BTC (down to $8,000) while retaining enough assets to fully cover its debt.
The heart of the plan rests on managing its convertible debt:
Over the next 3 to 6 years, the company plans to gradually convert these bonds into shares.
In other words:
Reduction of cash flow pressure risk
Extension of the maturity horizon
The heart of the plan rests on managing its convertible debt:
Over the next 3 to 6 years, the company plans to gradually convert these bonds into shares.
In other words:
Reduction of cash flow pressure risk
Extension of the maturity horizon
Jinse Finance reported that, out of the total supply of 21 million bitcoins, more than 95% have already been mined, leaving only 1 009 606 bitcoins to mine.
Accelerated adoption for Chainlink this week.
• 12 new integrations deployed on Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Polygon, and Robinhood Chain
• RWA solutions, predictive markets, and DeFi continue to integrate its oracles and Data Streams
• The Bank of England selects the network for its Synchronization Lab 2026
• CME Group launches the first LINK futures contracts, expanding institutional access
• Co-founder Sergey Nazarov highlights continuous growth in tokenized asset markets despite volatility
While prices fluctuate, infrastructure continues to deploy.
In crypto cycles, adoption often precedes valuation.
$LINK
• 12 new integrations deployed on Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Polygon, and Robinhood Chain
• RWA solutions, predictive markets, and DeFi continue to integrate its oracles and Data Streams
• The Bank of England selects the network for its Synchronization Lab 2026
• CME Group launches the first LINK futures contracts, expanding institutional access
• Co-founder Sergey Nazarov highlights continuous growth in tokenized asset markets despite volatility
While prices fluctuate, infrastructure continues to deploy.
In crypto cycles, adoption often precedes valuation.
$LINK
⚠️ What if the biggest risk for Bitcoin is not yet visible?
Analyst Willy Woo believes that the market is already beginning to factor in the threat of "Q-Day": the moment when quantum computing could break current cryptographic systems.
Potential outcome: up to 4 million BTC "lost" could theoretically become accessible again, representing nearly 30% of the total supply.
Even some institutional players are reacting: Christopher Wood from Jefferies recently removed BTC from his model portfolio in favor of gold.
The risk is still distant…
But the market is already starting to price it in.
Analyst Willy Woo believes that the market is already beginning to factor in the threat of "Q-Day": the moment when quantum computing could break current cryptographic systems.
Potential outcome: up to 4 million BTC "lost" could theoretically become accessible again, representing nearly 30% of the total supply.
Even some institutional players are reacting: Christopher Wood from Jefferies recently removed BTC from his model portfolio in favor of gold.
The risk is still distant…
But the market is already starting to price it in.
Token Unlocks to watch this week
According to Token Unlocks data, several major projects will experience significant unlocks:
🔓 ARB – 92.65M tokens unlocked on February 16
≈ 11M$ | 1.88% of the circulation
🔓 ZK – 173M tokens unlocked on February 16
≈ 3.79M$ | 3.06% of the circulation
🔓 YZY – 62.5M tokens unlocked on February 17
≈ 20.33M$ | 17.24% of the circulation
🔓 ZRO – 25.71M tokens unlocked on February 20
≈ 44.99M$ | 5.98% of the circulating supply
🔓 KAITO – 32.6M tokens unlocked on February 20
🔓 ARB – 92.65M tokens unlocked on February 16
≈ 11M$ | 1.88% of the circulation
🔓 ZK – 173M tokens unlocked on February 16
≈ 3.79M$ | 3.06% of the circulation
🔓 YZY – 62.5M tokens unlocked on February 17
≈ 20.33M$ | 17.24% of the circulation
🔓 ZRO – 25.71M tokens unlocked on February 20
≈ 44.99M$ | 5.98% of the circulating supply
🔓 KAITO – 32.6M tokens unlocked on February 20
According to on-chain data, an early ETH investor woke up after 10.6 years of inactivity and attempted to transfer 1 ETH to an exchange platform, but the transaction failed. He had invested 443 dollars during the ICO to acquire 1430 ETH, which are now worth 2.81 million dollars, representing a return multiplied by 6335.
GM 👋
New week, More motivation!
Have a great week everyone 🫡
New week, More motivation!
Have a great week everyone 🫡
According to a report by Jinse Finance, Dune's data shows that the total on-chain holdings volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has reached 1.5 million BTC, currently exceeding 1.494 million BTC, which represents 7.47% of the current BTC supply. Over the past week, 22,590 BTC have flowed in, with the value of on-chain holdings reaching 168.9 billion dollars.
#bitcoin
#bitcoin
According to Darkfost from CryptoQuant, the four-year simple moving average (SMA) indicator for bitcoin has now entered the bearish market level zone. This indicator evaluates the valuation state of bitcoin using standard deviation and the SMA multiple: the higher the multiple, the greater the overbought level; the closer the price is to the four-year SMA, the lower the valuation.
Currently, the price of bitcoin has fallen back into the green zone and is approaching the level of the four-year SMA, which is currently around 57,500 dollars. According to historical trends, this level generally marks the last phase of each bear market, with the BTC price tending to fluctuate in this zone for several months. Darkfost indicates that he is generally not a proponent of models based on moving averages but believes that this indicator is worth monitoring.
Currently, the price of bitcoin has fallen back into the green zone and is approaching the level of the four-year SMA, which is currently around 57,500 dollars. According to historical trends, this level generally marks the last phase of each bear market, with the BTC price tending to fluctuate in this zone for several months. Darkfost indicates that he is generally not a proponent of models based on moving averages but believes that this indicator is worth monitoring.
According to data from Hyperbot, 10 minutes ago, Huang Licheng reduced his long position on ETH by 425 tokens. His long position on ETH is now 2,500 tokens (approximately 5.02 million dollars). In addition, he also holds a long position of 8,000 tokens VVV (approximately 2.87 dollars).
Currently, the total size of Huang Licheng's position is approximately 5.05 million dollars, with a latent loss of 94,000 dollars; his futures account recorded a loss of approximately 1.08 million dollars over the past week, for a cumulative loss reaching 26.02 million dollars.
Currently, the total size of Huang Licheng's position is approximately 5.05 million dollars, with a latent loss of 94,000 dollars; his futures account recorded a loss of approximately 1.08 million dollars over the past week, for a cumulative loss reaching 26.02 million dollars.
according to HyperInsight's monitoring, the address of "Big Brother Whale" Huang Licheng added to his long position in ETH 10 minutes ago, currently holding a long position of 2700 ETH with a leverage of 25x, for a floating profit of $150,000.
Historical BNB prices on Lunar New Year
🔶 2018 – $11.20
🔶 2019 – $8.79
🔶 2020 – $16.98
🔶 2021 – $136.95
🔶 2022 – $385.46
🔶 2023 – $303.05
🔶 2024 – $323.13
🔶 2025 – $667.69
🔶 2026 – ?? 👇 (Prix actuel : $628.47 )
Interesting fact:
Historically, BNB has often entered strong momentum phases after Lunar New Year, particularly when broader market liquidity expands in late Q1.
In 2021, BNB accelerated aggressively in the weeks following Lunar New Year and eventually reached its cycle ATH ($671) during one of the most explosive expansion phases of the market.
🔶 2018 – $11.20
🔶 2019 – $8.79
🔶 2020 – $16.98
🔶 2021 – $136.95
🔶 2022 – $385.46
🔶 2023 – $303.05
🔶 2024 – $323.13
🔶 2025 – $667.69
🔶 2026 – ?? 👇 (Prix actuel : $628.47 )
Interesting fact:
Historically, BNB has often entered strong momentum phases after Lunar New Year, particularly when broader market liquidity expands in late Q1.
In 2021, BNB accelerated aggressively in the weeks following Lunar New Year and eventually reached its cycle ATH ($671) during one of the most explosive expansion phases of the market.
According to Bitcoin.com, Jurrien Timmer, global director of macroeconomics at Fidelity, stated on platform X that bitcoin recently fell to $60,000, reaching the support zone anticipated several months ago, which could indicate the formation of a bearish floor and the opening of a new phase of expansion. He emphasized that the drop to $60,000 remains relatively moderate and that as bitcoin matures, its volatility is expected to gradually decrease. He forecasts that after several months of consolidation, a new bullish cycle could begin, with the possibility of reaching new highs.
Timmer attached a chart analysis showing the correlation between the price of bitcoin and the global money supply, identifying $60,000 as a technical support level. Another chart, titled "The Path to Bitcoin Maturity", traces its historical waves: from early levels at $2 and $24, up to the breakthrough peak at $64,000, and points towards a projected sixth wave at $290,425. This model incorporates the adoption curve and macroeconomic variables, outlining a long-term framework towards a goal of one million dollars. He emphasized that if cycles and adoption trends continue, bitcoin could follow a structured maturity path after consolidating around $60,000.
Timmer attached a chart analysis showing the correlation between the price of bitcoin and the global money supply, identifying $60,000 as a technical support level. Another chart, titled "The Path to Bitcoin Maturity", traces its historical waves: from early levels at $2 and $24, up to the breakthrough peak at $64,000, and points towards a projected sixth wave at $290,425. This model incorporates the adoption curve and macroeconomic variables, outlining a long-term framework towards a goal of one million dollars. He emphasized that if cycles and adoption trends continue, bitcoin could follow a structured maturity path after consolidating around $60,000.
According to The Fintech Times, the digital bank of the United Arab Emirates Zand is expanding its collaboration with Ripple, particularly by supporting RLUSD in the regulated digital asset custody services of Zand, studying direct liquidity solutions between the regulated stablecoin of the dirham AEDZ and RLUSD, as well as exploring the issuance of AEDZ on XRPL.
According to SaniExp, on February 14, 2026 (Saturday) at 23:53:18 (UTC+8), centralized exchanges hold a total of 3.4985 million BTC. Over the last 48 hours, individuals have sold 7,015 BTC. Historical data shows an increase of 5,482 BTC over 24 hours, 10,084 BTC over 48 hours, 16,231 BTC over 7 days, and 74,499 BTC since the beginning of the year.
GM 🌅
Happy Sunday
Happy Sunday
Steve Kurz, head of asset management at Galaxy Digital, stated that the recent decline in cryptocurrencies reflects a healthy deleveraging, while infrastructure growth and institutional adoption support optimistic prospects. Kurz believes that the recent market decline was driven by liquidity factors and a reduction in leverage, rather than a systemic failure; the market cycle is more mature than in 2022, and most forced sales may be over. He emphasizes that stablecoins, tokenization, and the integration of blockchain with traditional finance are accelerating, with cryptocurrencies becoming financial assets and central financial infrastructures. He forecasts that there will not be a V-shaped rebound, but rather a gradual rise after a period of fluctuations, and that with the deepening of institutional capital, the "deep fusion" between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance will continue to progress.
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