CryptoQuant Quicktake

Ethereum Velocity (CryptoQuant, daily) is calculated from ETH's trailing one-year on-chain transfer volume relative to supply. Because the numerator is a rolling one-year sum, the metric normally moves slowly. Day-to-day changes are small, since each new day is added while the day from a year ago drops out.
That is what makes the recent move stand out.
- Nov 2025 - mid-Jul 2026: velocity held between roughly 9.8 and 10.1.
- Mid-Jul - late Sep: a steady decline to around 8.8, the low of the period. The newer days recorded far less transfer volume than the days rolling out of the window.
- Late Sep: a near-vertical step from around 8.8 to around 10.8, followed by smaller steps to the latest reading of 11.03.
A rise of about 2 points in a few days means the window absorbed transfer volume worth around 23% of its previous one-year total in a very short span. That pattern fits a handful of very large transfers better than a broad pickup in network use. Possible sources include exchange or custodian wallet reshuffles, contract migrations or large holder repositioning. Entity-level flow data is needed to confirm which.
Price context matters. ETH printed its local high near 2.75K around the step and has since slipped to about 2.4K. Elevated turnover with weakening price leans toward supply moving into the market rather than fresh demand.
Invalidation: if exchange inflows stay muted and ETH reclaims the late-September high, the spike is more likely internal movement than distribution.
Conclusion: the velocity jump is real, but its source is still unconfirmed. Until price confirms, treat it as a caution signal, not a demand signal.
Written by Rei Researcher

The inflow of stablecoins to exchanges signifies an inflwo of fund.
Typically, periods of upward market momentum are accompanied by a significant increase in stablecoin inflows.
As $BTC climbed from the $62k to $80k range, daily stablecoin inflows to Binance reached $1.6B. During the same period, stablecoin inflows to Coinbase also rose to $1.0B-$1.4B.
The $BTC rise occurred alongside this robust fund inflow.
However, after that, stablecoin inflows to other exchanges dropped significantly. In contrast, Binance maintained an average inflow of $1.2B, standing out as the only exchange to sustain a solid flow of fund.
This week, stablecoin inflows have begun to rise once again. Inflows to Binance have climbed to $1.51B, while Coinbase has also seen its stablecoin inflows reach the $1B mark for the first time in about a month.
While Binance has demonstrated a consistently strong fund inflow, other exchanges tend to follow short-term trends. The confirmed pattern suggests that fund inflows are a response to the rise in $BTC, rather than the primary driver of the price increase itself.
Binance is the only exchange showing a steady, sustained influx of stablecoins. It is currently the driving force behind the trading activity, operating under the surface.
Written by CW8900

Bitcoin’s SOPR has climbed above 1.02, marking what appears to be its highest reading since November 2025, during the initial decline from the all-time high. The earlier spike was substantially larger, so the comparison concerns timing and rarity rather than equal intensity.
SOPR compares the USD value of spent coins with their value when their outputs were created. Above 1, those coins move at an aggregate profit. A reading near 1.02 implies roughly 2% profit relative to their recorded cost basis, not that 2% of holders are selling.
The notable feature is that profitability is expanding while Bitcoin remains well below its peak. This can reflect spending by holders with lower cost bases, including buyers of the earlier drawdown. It does not require the broader market to have recovered its losses. The spike therefore raises a question about potential profit-taking supply during the recovery.
However, SOPR measures profit intensity, not the volume of coins sold. Older profitable outputs can lift the ratio, and transfers do not necessarily represent sales. The chart alone cannot establish broad distribution or identify the responsible cohort.
Unlike the November episode, the latest spike follows months of readings around or below breakeven, making the recovery in spending profitability especially relevant.
The 30-period EMA has also moved modestly above 1, suggesting an improvement beyond a single observation. The next test is whether that profitability can persist without renewed price weakness. If SOPR cools toward 1 while price holds recent support, the pattern would be consistent with profit-taking being absorbed. Repeated spikes alongside stalled price, followed by a sustained move below 1, would instead strengthen the case for a fragile recovery.
The signal is a test of demand, not a standalone top call: the market is moving from loss realization toward renewed profitability, but the durability of that transition depends on how price responds.
Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin deposits from mid-size investors fell across four major exchanges between September 21 and October 23, while Binance whale inflows also declined, even as BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded positive changes in USD-denominated holdings.
The combined 7-day average of mid-size inflows to
Coinbase Advanced, Coinbase Prime, Binance, and Kraken dropped from 20,591 BTC to 11,530 BTC, a decline of 9,061 BTC (44.0%).
Coinbase Advanced led the decline, falling 3,881 BTC (55.1%) from 7,041 to 3,160 BTC.
Binance declined 2,120 BTC (41.8%) to 2,950 BTC;
Coinbase Prime fell 2,100 BTC (46.4%) to 2,430 BTC; and
Kraken dropped 960 BTC (24.3%) to 2,990 BTC.
Meanwhile, Binance's 30-day sum of whale inflows declined from $5.67 billion to $4.00 billion, a $1.67 billion (29.5%) reduction over the same period.
ETF holdings showed a contrasting pattern.
BlackRock's IBIT registered a positive $703 million reading on October 19 and another $238 million on October 21, totaling $941 million across two sessions within three days.
Fidelity's FBTC added a positive $206 million reading on October 21, bringing the two funds' combined positive readings that day to $444 million.
Conclusion:
The simultaneous decline in exchange inflows from mid-size investors and whales, alongside rising Bitcoin ETF holdings, suggests a broader pattern of reduced potential selling pressure and growing ETF exposure.
This combination may indicate a growing trend toward holding Bitcoin for a longer period.
Written by Amr Taha

With persistent tensions in the Gulf and intensifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, the price of Brent is holding above $100.
This cost is passing through to economies worldwide: inflation is becoming more deeply embedded in production processes, in the price of services, commodities, and so on. A sustained rise in Brent can therefore signal an economic slowdown, which constrains the liquidity available to markets, particularly the riskiest ones like Bitcoin.
Over the long term, we can see that when Brent settles into a strong upward trend, above its annual average, Bitcoin has often slowed down. Conversely, when Brent drops sharply, it has often coincided with a recovery for Bitcoin.
Note, as I mentioned in the preamble, that this is not a simple cause-and-effect relationship between Bitcoin and Brent. What can prove harmful to risk assets is the economic climate that comes with rising oil prices.
In July, we had a brief respite, and Bitcoin immediately took advantage of it. Brent has since rebounded strongly, however. I'm not saying Bitcoin can't keep up its momentum, since liquidity can rotate from one market to another, but economic conditions aren't very favorable for fresh liquidity to come in.
Written by Darkfost

Total XRP outflows from cryptocurrency exchanges over a 30-day period reached approximately 5.3 billion XRP. While this represents a significant volume of XRP movement, it remains relatively low compared with the 6 billion XRP recorded in October.
Data indicates that Binance led all exchanges in terms of outflow volume, recording approximately 2.206 billion XRP, the largest share of the total. OKX ranked second, with outflows of around 501.51 million XRP, followed by Bybit in third place, with approximately 479.94 million XRP. Upbit recorded outflows of approximately 392.90 million XRP, while Bitget saw outflows of around 243.39 million XRP.
Regarding the overall trend, the data shows a decline in total outflows during the first half of August, followed by a gradual increase in the second half of the month. Elevated levels persisted throughout September and October. This coincided with a recovery in the overall indicator following the relatively low levels observed during the summer.
Exchange outflows may indicate that XRP is being transferred to private wallets or other custodial platforms, potentially reducing the supply available for immediate sale on exchanges. However, such movements do not necessarily indicate increased demand or an impending price increase, as their significance depends on price trends, trading volumes, and investor behavior.
Written by Arab Chain

According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Exchange Outflow (Top 10) indicator on Binance recorded a sharp spike to nearly 15,500 BTC in October, significantly exceeding most levels observed earlier in 2026.
Notably, Binance continues to facilitate large-scale BTC transfers, even during periods of significant market volatility.
This is a positive signal of the platform's activity level, highlighting that Binance remains a platform used for high-value Bitcoin asset transfers.
Data Source: CryptoQuant
Written by Rei Researcher

The chart shows that BTC buyers have weakened in the short term. This suggests that sellers step in during every upward move within the sideways range. The fact that market sell volume on Binance is higher than buy volume is clear proof of this. The latest drop indicates that short term selling pressure has become more pronounced.
We can see that stablecoins’ purchasing power relative to Bitcoin has declined. Since this is happening while aggressive sell volume on Binance exceeds buy volume, it suggests that the ability of new purchases to absorb selling may be limited in the short term, which could increase downward pressure on the price.
The chart shows that short-term investors are spending their coins at a price slightly above their average cost. Since the SOPR value is just above 1, this could pave the way for profit taking; however, it is not evidence of panic selling at the current level. We can consider it only a factor that supports selling pressure.
In summary, the buyer seller flow has shifted in sellers favor in the short term. This could create downward pressure on the price, but confirmation from the price chart and key levels is needed before saying that the price has actually entered a downtrend. Given that many investors are above their cost basis, this scenario does not seem impossible.
Written by PelinayPA

XRP whale activity has intensified in recent weeks, with selling pressure rising sharply. Here, we define whales as transactions exceeding 1 million XRP, which allows us to attribute them to this specific cohort.
Analysis of XRP inflows to Binance from these whales shows a recent acceleration in selling. Since August, the monthly average of inflows to Binance has increased by $72 million to reach $112.4 million, its highest level since March.
This is well above the roughly $90 million average recorded over the past three months. Daily spikes of more than $400 million have even been observed.
This change in behavior coincides with XRP's rebound of more than 30% since August, which encouraged the largest holders to take profits.
Currently, inflows have returned to more typical levels, suggesting that these whales' selling pressure has eased. The September peak is also well below the one seen in August.
That said, the situation can change quickly, particularly depending on XRP's price trajectory. Given the amounts these players are able to move, tracking their activity remains a useful indicator to factor into any strategy.
Written by Darkfost

I would like to introduce the Whale Flow Composite Index (WFCI), a new modified whale movement index I developed. It evaluates whale trading activity by measuring the volume of BTC they accumulate or distribute. Based on these metrics, the market can be categorized into four distinct phases: Stealth Accumulation, Whale Distribution, Bull Expansion, and Neutral Reshuffling.
The attached chart illustrates these characteristics. The index is bounded between -1 and 1. A drop below -0.5 signals Whale Distribution, whereas a rise above 0.5 indicates active Accumulation.
Currently, the index shows that whales are continuing to accumulate. To ride this wave, we should align our strategy with their movements.
Written by joohyun ryu

Bitcoin's 365-day UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio average fell to 13.6, just 14.1% above its November 21, 2022 reading of 11.92. BTC traded near $16,000 then, versus above $82,000 on October 20, 2026—a price more than five times higher despite a similar long-term profitability reading.
The cost-basis picture remains divided.
Binance user deposit addresses show a realized price of $64,200, putting BTC at least $17,800 (27.7%) above that level.
New whales have a much higher cost basis of $77,120—$12,920 above the Binance address reading—leaving BTC only 6.3% above their average cost at the $82,000 reference price.
Miner whales and long-term holder whales have lower realized prices of $51,820 and $46,400, respectively.
A third signal comes from realized capitalization.
Bitcoin's 30-day Realized Cap Change reached +$12.93 billion on October 22,
67.7% below the $40 billion reading on October 15, 2025, and
79.8% below the $64 billion recorded on July 24, 2025.
Those elevated 2025 readings preceded an approximately 52% .
The positive current reading means realized capitalization is still expanding, just far less rapidly than at those peaks.
Together, the three metrics show a historical profitability divergence, a narrower cushion for new whales than for Binance deposit addresses, and slower realized-cap growth.
Written by Amr Taha

Japan may be approaching a turning point in stablecoin adoption.
On October 21, Japan's Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Tatsunori Ibayashi, told a parliamentary committee that the government would consider using stablecoins to refund consumption tax to foreign visitors.
The timing was striking. Just four hours earlier, I had published an article arguing that Japan's next breakthrough could come from connecting public infrastructure with digital payments.
Why does this matter?
From November 1, Japan's tax-free shopping system will shift to a refund model: tourists will pay tax at checkout and receive a refund after customs confirms the goods are leaving Japan. Getting that money back to travelers quickly and affordably will be a major challenge.
Yen-backed stablecoins could offer a new option: refunds sent directly to digital wallets, potentially around the clock. In March, JPYC and Japan Tax-Free announced a partnership to explore precisely this use case.
But this is NOT an approval or official adoption. Wallet security, identity checks, anti-money-laundering rules, international access and conversion into local currencies remain important hurdles.
My view: the real story is not speculative demand for tokens. It is the possibility of blockchain moving into everyday public services. If Japan can make tax refunds safer, faster and cheaper, the same infrastructure could eventually support transport and logistics payments.
Japan's stablecoin story may be moving from ideas to policy discussions. Now comes the hard part: proving real value for users.
Perhaps yen-backed JPYC data will appear on CryptoQuant sooner than we think.
Written by XWIN Japan

1) Q3 2026 marked the first bullish quarter following a downtrend.
2) The last time such a bullish quarter occurred following a downtrend was in Q1 2023, which preceded a major uptrend that extended through 2025.
3) In both periods, SP increased from 9M to over 14M BTC. The buyers took control of the market.
4) The on-chain data were downloaded from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

ETH transfers in the chart have recently been hovering in the approximately 0–9 million range, well below the 40–85 million spikes seen in previous months. Therefore, the latest data points to a marked slowdown in the amount of ETH flowing to Binance.
Assets sent to exchanges are generally considered negative for price, so the recent decline in Ethereum transfers could be interpreted positively. It is possible to say, “As supply flowing to exchanges dries up, the near-term shadow of selling pressure over the market is also fading.”
Since ETH is the largest altcoin, it directly affects the movements of smaller altcoins as well. We can say that transfers of these altcoins are at historically low levels in the table. This is a pattern we encounter in every bear market, in fact. The fact that these crypto assets are not being transferred to exchanges could, due to a supply squeeze, have a positive effect on prices and potentially start a bull market over the long term.
The recent pullback in the supply of ETH and other altcoins flowing to exchanges suggests that immediate selling pressure has eased. If demand remains active, this could give prices some breathing room; however, without confirmation from demand and other exchange flows, it is not enough on its own to declare a trend reversal. If prices remain under pressure, supply will not be the cause.
Written by PelinayPA

Realized Capitalization tracks the actual net inflow of capital held in the chain.
The indicator has flipped into positive🟩 territory after 7 months of capital contraction.
Historically, all major market pullbacks — such as those in 2015, 2019, and early 2023 — were confirmed when this oscillator crossed back above🔺 zero after a prolonged period of capital outflows.
This transition confirms that liquidity leakage has dried up and net is once again flowing back into the BTC network.
Written by G a a h

Stablecoin reserves on Binance have just hit their lowest level of the year.
With $41.6B of stablecoins (ERC-20) in reserve, Binance is back to its early October 2025 level. Since April 2026, $6.3B has left the platform.
Stablecoin market cap on Binance has been in the red since June, with an estimated -4.7% change over 90 days for now. This is consistent with Binance stablecoin netflows, which average -$62M on a monthly average.
This trend is not unique to Binance, which still holds over 70% of stablecoin reserves across exchanges. Since April, reserves have also fallen by $2.3B on Bybit, $2.5B on Coinbase Advanced and $2.4B on OKX.
After a slight liquidity rebound in late August, momentum has faded and several factors may explain this :
- Exchanges adjust the supply of stablecoins available on their platforms to match investor demand, and investors appear reluctant to take on crypto exposure for now.
- Some investors may have withdrawn their liquidity to earn a yield on other platforms while waiting for better conditions.
Either way, this dynamic continues to weigh on the market. The lack of incoming liquidity is contributing to the current lethargy. For the situation to change, we would need to see flows return to exchanges, a sign that demand is recovering.
Written by Darkfost

Both BTC and the S&P 500 are showing weakness, and we've seen a similar setup before.
In late 2018, the US 10Y Treasury yield rolled over from its highs as the S&P 500 came under pressure. BTC was also struggling, with the sell-off deepening into the end of the year.
We saw another example in Jan-Apr 2025. Treasury yields pulled back from their January highs, and the April market turmoil sent both BTC and the S&P 500 sharply lower.
Now, the 10Y yield is pushing towards multi-year highs again, while BTC and equities are starting to lose momentum. The S&P 500 has yet to see a proper correction.
If equities take a bigger hit from here, BTC could be dragged lower with them.
The two periods had different catalysts, so I'm not saying history will repeat itself. But with yields elevated and weakness already showing across both markets, the risk of a deeper correction is increasing.
Written by nocoffeenobrain

Bitcoin’s recovery is facing a liquidity problem: USDT, which accompanied several of its strongest advances, is struggling to return to sustained expansion.
During the 2024–2025 rallies, USDT’s market capitalization repeatedly grew by billions of dollars over 60-day periods. That expansion increased the pool of dollar liquidity available for trading and absorbing sell pressure. Issuance alone did not guarantee BTC purchases, but it provided a more supportive backdrop for demand.
In 2026 expansion has become less persistent, interrupted by deep contractions. Although the 60-day change has recently recovered toward zero from its midyear lows, USDT has now lost nearly $1 billion in market capitalization over five days. The longer-term improvement is therefore being tested by renewed short-term withdrawals.
This matters because a recovery from contraction is only the first step. Bitcoin can rebound as selling fades or existing capital rotates back into the market. Extending that rebound becomes harder when fresh liquidity fails to build alongside it, particularly if higher prices encourage holders to take profits.
The underlying tension is that BTC has recovered faster than its USDT liquidity backdrop. One source of fuel that supported previous advances is contributing much less, leaving the market more dependent on existing buying power and alternative demand channels.
USDT alone cannot establish a market-wide capital drain: liquidity may migrate into other stablecoins, while ETF demand can reach Bitcoin through a separate route. Nevertheless, renewed USDT contraction weakens the case that this recovery is developing into a broad liquidity-driven expansion.
The next test is whether daily contractions fade and the 60-day change moves decisively above zero, supported by stronger spot buying. If supply keeps shrinking while BTC stalls, the risk is that the recovery loses momentum before demand becomes strong enough to absorb renewed selling.
Written by MorenoDV_