With a rise of more than 8% during yesterday, Bitcoin recorded one of the best days of 2024 and was driven by strong liquidations in the futures market.

During the day, around US$259 million in sales contracts were liquidated, which ended up generating significant cash buying pressure.

Furthermore, this was the largest short contract liquidation event since 2022 and marks a structural change in Bitcoin pricing.

Events like this have the ability to directly influence the price, but they originate in the spot market with the intense accumulation of the last few days.

This process of institutional accumulation was being tracked in our analysis and has started to impact the price now.

Retail investors are expected to add more buying pressure on “FOMO”, but short-term corrections may emerge.

Written by caueconomy

🔹 Definition of Accumulation Addresses:

- No outgoing transactions.

- Balance exceeding 10 BTC.

- Excludes accounts belonging to CEX or miners.

- Received more than two incoming transactions.

- Last transaction occurred within the last 7 years.

🔹 Data Overview:

1. Inflows to Accumulation Addresses: This captures the amount of BTC flowing into accumulation addresses daily, along with the BTC price at the time.

2. Balance on Accumulation Addresses: This records the total balance of BTC in accumulation addresses daily, alongside the corresponding BTC price.

🔹 Key Observations:

Significant Inflows on May 15th: On May 15th, there was a notable spike in BTC inflows to accumulation addresses during a local market correction. This suggests that during price dips, accumulation addresses tend to receive higher inflows, indicating buying interest at lower prices.

Price Movement and Accumulation: As BTC prices dipped, the balance in these addresses increased, reinforcing the idea of accumulation during corrections.

🔹 Conclusion:

The analysis reveals significant inflows to accumulation addresses during the local BTC market correction on May 15th, indicating that investors might use market dips to accumulate BTC. Understanding these inflow patterns provides valuable insights into market behavior and investor sentiment during price corrections. By monitoring these trends, investors and analysts can better predict potential market movements and make more informed decisions.

Written by IT Tech

Toncoin is currently the 7th largest cryptocurrency by market cap, with much of this growth achieved in 2024. The advancements and popularity of the TON Network are undeniable, and it is gaining traction among investors daily.

Among the top 20 cryptocurrencies, Toncoin has quickly advanced to rank among the top 3 in cumulative returns over the past year, closely following Solana and Near as the best investments of 2024. This meteoric rise reflects the growing confidence in the TON ecosystem, driven by its robust technological framework and increasing adoption.

The TON Network, known for its scalability and speed, has been attracting significant attention from developers and users alike. Its unique features, such as the ability to handle millions of transactions per second and its user-friendly interface, have set it apart from other blockchain platforms. As a result, TON has seen a surge in decentralized applications (dApps) and partnerships, further boosting its market position.

For comparison, over the past 12 months, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted a cumulative return of approximately 150%, a respectable figure in its own right. However, Toncoin has recorded an impressive 244% return in the same period. Remarkably, between August 2023 and April 2024, Toncoin's value surged by over 640%, making it one of the best investments among major cryptocurrencies. This extraordinary performance highlights Toncoin's potential and the market's growing interest in this innovative cryptocurrency.

To visualize this impressive growth, we have created a video showcasing a chart race. This dynamic graph illustrates Toncoin's annual returns against the top 20 cryptocurrencies, vividly demonstrating Toncoin's rapid ascent and the substantial gains it has provided to its investors. Watch the video to see how Toncoin has outpaced many of its peers and solidified its position as a top-performing asset in the crypto space.

Written by joaowedson

Net Taker Volume measures the difference between buying and selling volume facilitated by market orders, which are crucial in market dynamics. Market orders prioritize positioning over price, often willing to pay more for immediate execution.

This was evident in Ethereum's recent activity. Following ETF Specialist James Settfort's announcement of a 75% likelihood for an ETH ETF, Binance traders swiftly went long on Ethereum in significant quantities. In just one candle, Taker Buy Volume surpassed Taker Sell Volume by $530 million, marking the largest such differential ever recorded. Binance traders are eagerly embracing the Ethereum ETF news, exhibiting a fervor akin to there being no tomorrow. 🤯

Written by maartunn

The Open Network (TON) Token currently stands as one of the most popular layer one cryptocurrencies. Since the beginning of the year, its price has surpassed that of bitcoin by +118%.

Analyzing price fluctuations across various trading sessions allows us to discern which investor groups are bullish on TON and which lean more bearish. This insight can guide expectations regarding price movements.

The chart I've assembled illustrates the relative price performance during each trading session (these times are referenced from GMT timezone)

🟣 European trading spans from 8 to 15 hours.

🟠 American trading ranges from 14 to 23 hours.

🟢 Asian trading occurs between 0 and 8 hours.

While many days register minimal movement, the data highlights American investors as the most bullish on TON. Numerous orange lines indicate significant percentage changes during the US session, with the token experiencing the highest average percentage increase during this period. Conversely, European traders appear the most bearish, as evidenced by multiple purple lines denoting negative price changes during their session. Asia shows a more moderate stance, with trading hours commencing later, reflected in the data. Asian session traders seem to align with past price performance, spanning both positive and negative trends.

For active short-term trading, I recommend seeking long positions during US sessions. Conversely, for shorting, entering during the EU session is preferable.

Written by maartunn

What is the RCV Metric?

The 60-Day Realized to Market Capitalization Variance (RCV) is a custom metric developed to analyze the difference between Bitcoin’s realized capitalization and market capitalization over a 60-day period. This variance is then normalized by the average market capitalization, offering a clear view of the relationship between these two critical financial indicators.

Understanding the Components:

1) Realized Capitalization : The sum of market values of all Bitcoin at the last moved price, providing a more stable and less speculative value compared to market capitalization.

2) Market Capitalization: The total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation, calculated by multiplying the current price by the total supply.

3) RCV Calculation: The difference between the 60-day moving averages of market capitalization and realized capitalization, divided by the average market capitalization. This ratio helps identify significant deviations between speculative market value and a more intrinsic value based on actual transaction prices.

🌟 Significance of the RCV Metric

The RCV metric is a valuable tool for investors and analysts for several reasons:

1) Market Sentiment Analysis: By comparing market and realized capitalizations, RCV can indicate whether the market is overly optimistic (high market cap relative to realized cap) or pessimistic.

2) Investment Decisions: Identifying periods of significant variance can help in making informed investment decisions, especially during market extremes.

3) Risk Management: Understanding the divergence between market perception and actual transactional data helps in assessing the risk levels associated with Bitcoin investments.

🚀 Conclusion

The 60-Day Realized to Market Capitalization Variance (RCV) metric is a powerful addition to the toolkit of anyone analyzing Bitcoin’s market performance. It provides a nuanced view of the market, combining both speculative and intrinsic value assessments.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The number of spot exchange stablecoin deposits has significantly surged over the past few days, with minimal corresponding increases in spot exchange stablecoin withdrawals. This trend suggests increasing demand in the crypto spot exchanges. Historically, such dynamics have often preceded significant short-term bullish or bearish moves in the market, indicating potential for notable price action in the near term.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

As of the latest data, Bitcoin's funding rate has stabilized with the 7-day Simple Moving Average at 0.45%, significantly lower than the 3-4% seen in early March when Bitcoin's price was at a lower level. This rate is comparable to levels observed in September and April last year, which preceded bullish price movements. In previous "dead-cat-bounce" scenarios, funding rates were higher, with March 2021 seeing a rate close to 3% before a correction to $30,000, and November 2021 rates between 0.7% and 0.8% before the 2022 bear market.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

The short-term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has found support above 1, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market. A SOPR value above 1 means that coins moved on that day are, on average, selling at a profit, while a value below 1 indicates that they are selling at a loss. The recent retest of the 1 level, which represents the break-even point for short-term holders, is particularly significant. This support suggests that holders are unwilling to sell at a loss, reducing selling pressure. As the SOPR consistently remains above 1, it signals that profit-taking is being absorbed. With the market not overly heated, this dynamic has the potential to push Bitcoin's price upwards.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

The Realized Price-UTXO Age Band allows us to observe the Realized Price of BTC by the age of UTXO. This serves as the cost basis and can act as support or resistance. However, it's important not to interpret this band literally, as each cohort has a different overall Realized Cap Dominance (%).

📌 Let's examine the actual Realized Price of Long-Term Holders (LTH), considering their Realized Cap share. Including the last cycle, the cohort ranging from 6 months to 5 years accounts for 43.97% of the Total Cap.

☑️ The weighted average value reflecting their share is $31.92k.

1) The Realized Cap share of LTH (6m-5y) shows little change compared to a month ago.

- Given that the STH share has exceeded 50%, it indicates that the transfer of holdings occurred 2-3 months ago.

2) The movements of the 2-3 year cohort since 2024 show that they are the main players in this shift.

- While their Realized Price remains relatively stable, their Cap share has significantly decreased.

- These are investors who bought during the previous cycle's peak and the subsequent decline.

- When the market reached a new ATH in March, they exited the market.

3) LTHs are clearly in a profitable position.

- Therefore, the driving force behind the rise is not LTHs but STHs (new investors).

Written by Yonsei_dent

aSOPR data below 1 indicates selling at a loss, while above 1 indicates selling at a profit.

When we fell to the 56K level, we observed that some were selling at a loss, suggesting a potential bottom. After the metric fell below the 1 level, a change of hands was noted, and it started to rise. With the increase in price, we see that profitable sales are being made.

I have added potential support and resistance levels here, and transactions can be considered when these levels are reached.

The higher the metric goes, the more the selling pressure increases. Conversely, the more we fall below 1, the more sales are made at a loss.

In bull markets, we can see that reaching the 0.95 level gives the best gain.

Written by XBTManager

📌Short-Term Holder: Let’s look at the actual Realized Price of STH, reflecting the proportion of Realized Cap. This includes cohorts from 0d to 6m, accounting for 53.48% of the total cap.

📃 The 0d~1w cohort accounts for 10.6% and was excluded from the data as there is no significant difference from the spot price. The proportion of 1w~6m is 47.78%. (L: Realized Price / R: Realized Cap Dominance)

🟥1w~1m

$62.72k / 7.51%

🟧1m~3m

$66.09k / 30.06%

🟨3m~6m

$43.46k / 10.21%

☑️The weighted average value reflecting their proportion is $61.51k.

$61.51k is about 5.09k different from the current price ($66.6k), which has narrowed the gap considerably compared to early April when there was a 9k difference.

🎯Key Point

1) The market share of the 0d~6m cohort is over 53.48%. It can be seen that there has been a significant transfer of volume from LTH to STH.

2) The market share of the 1m~3m cohort increased from 10% to over 30% in two months. These are investors who entered the market during the March rally.

3) Investors are sensitive to the price of STH compared to LTH. 61.5k will act as a strong support and resistance zone.

4) However, if $61.5k collapses strongly, it may turn into strong resistance for a while due to the S/R flip.

Written by Yonsei_dent

The MVRV Z-Score is one of the most effective On-chain metrics for identifying market risk based on Bitcoin's realized value. It accurately estimates high-risk and low-risk zones for long-term investment and dollar-cost averaging (DCA).

This metric indicated a significant peak at the $72,000 range, which was previously observed near Bitcoin's all-time high in November 2021. Although the current market risk is perceived to be lower compared to previous months, the $72,000 range still serves as a short-term market ceiling.

Therefore, for long-term investors, particularly those employing a DCA strategy, it is crucial to exercise patience in these zones (specifically within the 3-4 range of the MVRV Z-Score) and optimize their entry points. It is important to note that these zones are identified as high-risk areas, and it is never possible to definitively label them as price ceilings.

This metric has many applications. For example, you can use the specified ratios according to your investment system for market entry and exit zones. In low-risk areas, you will engage in accumulation, and as the market risk increases based on the growth of the MVRV Z-Score, you can proceed with managed selling or add to your average investment during price corrections.

Using this metric and other metrics derived from Realized Cap, such as Realized Price and MVRV Ratio, are the best tools for investing and estimating the actual risk in the Bitcoin market. Remember that there is no need to hunt for market tops and bottoms to achieve successful investments.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Amid Ethereum's recent sideways consolidation and uncertain price action, investors are closely watching futures market behavior to gauge potential sentiment shifts. The accompanying chart displays the Ethereum Open Interest metric, which measures the number of open perpetual futures contracts across various cryptocurrency exchanges. Higher values suggest potential market volatility and trend sustainability, while lower values indicate a cooling off in the perpetual markets.

The chart shows a significant surge in Open Interest following a short period of sideways consolidation, highlighting increased futures market activity and more aggressive long or short positions. This suggests a potential notable price move in the short term, depending on the direction of these positions. If the funding rates metric also rises, the market could be set for renewed bullish trends in the mid-term. However, heightened volatility may accompany this activity, so traders should exercise caution.

Written by ShayanBTC

Recently, whales moved over $1 billion in Toncoin, indicating significant activity among the largest addresses on the network. On-chain data reveals an interesting picture of the distribution and impact of transactions on the Toncoin blockchain.

Transaction Distribution

On-chain transactions from 0 to 100 TON represent 99% of all transactions, but their impact is relatively low, moving only around 4 to 5 million TON on the blockchain. In contrast, transactions between 100,000 and 1 million TON dominate the volume, recently reaching 135 million TON, accounting for 53% of the total volume. Transactions over 1 million TON represent 30% of the total volume.

These data clearly show that TON whales have the primary control over the blockchain and, consequently, significantly influence the price of TONCOIN.

USD Transaction Impact

Analyzing the distribution by dollar value, transactions over $1 million set records, surpassing $1.3 billion moved in a single day. Interestingly, when there are high volume spikes in these transactions, the price of TONCOIN tends to react positively.

In summary, TON whales play a crucial role in moving large volumes of TONCOIN, significantly impacting the market and the price of this cryptocurrency. Keep an eye on the movements of these large transactions to better understand the trends and fluctuations in the value of TONCOIN.

#TON #TONCOIN #WHALE

Written by joaowedson

1 - New Whales’ Realized Price: New whales—defined as addresses holding over 1,000 BTC with a coin detention time of less than 6 months—have been strategically accumulating Bitcoin around the $60,000 mark. This consistent purchasing behavior at this level indicates that $60,000 has become a significant on-chain support level, reinforced by the substantial influx of institutional investors following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

The realized price of these new whales, representing the average acquisition cost, is approximately $60,000. This metric highlights the entry confidence of these market participants and underscores the robustness of this price level as a floor for BTC. The influx of institutional capital via spot ETFs has provided additional momentum, further validating the $60,000 level as a critical support zone.

2 - Old Whales’ Realized Price: In contrast, long-term whales—addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC for over 6 months—exhibit a stable realized price. This stability reflects their seasoned investment strategies and low turnover rates, indicative of a long-term accumulation approach.

The behavior of these holders demonstrates a deep-seated confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, often disregarding short-term market fluctuations. Their stable realized price serves as a benchmark for market stability and long-term support.

The interaction between new and old whales’ realized prices presents a comprehensive view of market dynamics. The significant accumulation by new whales, bolstered by institutional investment and Bitcoin spot ETF approvals, reinforces the $60,000 support level. Meanwhile, the stability exhibited by long-term whales provides a foundational layer of confidence and strategic holding patterns.

In summary, the $60,000 price point emerges as a critical on-chain support level, underpinned by both new whale accumulation and long-term holder stability.

Written by onchained

When we look at the net outflows on the Bitcoin side, BTC outflows from exchanges to wallets are clearly visible after the test of the 73k zone.

Especially when we examine the movements after March 13, the number of bitcoins entering the stock market is close to the numbers on the green candles, while on the red days, overwhelming superiority stands out.

BTC movements;

While BTCs coming to exchange create a bearish expectation,

BTC going off-exchange increases the bullish expectation.

Written by KriptoBaykusV2

This chart illustrates Bitcoin's price (black line) and the inflow of stablecoins (blue area).

The price of Bitcoin has shown multiple fluctuations over time, while the blue area indicates the amount of stablecoins entering the market. Notably, there are significant increases in stablecoin inflows at various points, which often coincide with Bitcoin's price movements.

The recent highlighted spike in stablecoin inflows suggests a substantial increase in liquidity entering the market, which can affect Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics and potentially lead to increased price volatility.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

Coinbase premium is increasing again.

movement in the purple box represents a typical buying pattern of ETF market makers (MM).

Although the premium level is not at $200-300 during the acceleration phase of the previous price, buying patterns are emerging again.

Written by Mignolet

Short positions have increased significantly alongside the rise in price. This will yield certain outcomes.

1- It's possible that the price will rise further to liquidate short positions.

2- There might be a secondary scenario where the decline persists after short positions are liquidated.

3- It's advisable to monitor the liquidity of positions for the time being. A decline is likely when short positions are closed.

I'd like to provide some information about this indicator.

If the funding rate is positive, the long rate is high, and those opening long positions pay a commission to those opening short positions. If the funding rate is negative, the short position dominates, and those in the short position pay a commission to those opening long positions. The purpose of this is to maintain balance with the spot market.

Written by XBTManager