This ratio of the top 10 inflows to the total inflows of the exchange. High values indicate whales are using the exchanges in large amount.

Interestingly, this trend has been growing rapidly since Mar 24th, when the Bitcoin price broke the previous all-time high.

What happened in the past when the ratio increased?

Almost without exception, when the ratio increased, the price fell. Interestingly, in the last three months, when the ratio has increased rapidly, the price has not fallen significantly, nor has it crashed. My guess is that this hasn't happened because of the huge demand for spot ETFs.

The question is the direction of the price going forward, and with the exception of 2022, when the ratio increased in a bear market, price plunges occurred in 2018, 2019, and 2021 when the percentage peaked and declined.

So I don't think we're going to see a price crash based on historical patterns right now. But as the ratio peaks and declines, the likelihood of a crash will increase and then we'll need to rebalance accordingly.

Written by SignalQuant

Right before the ETF approval, holders sold their Bitcoin (blue box).

However, in the green box, the short-term holders accumulated during the consolidation phase have transitioned to long-term holders of 3-6 months and are continuously being accumulated without being sold (green box).

Since most of these holdings belong to whales, this could serve as a strong support indicator.

Written by Mignolet

Monitoring whale movements is crucial in the cryptocurrency space, as large players often influence price directions. Fortunately, on-chain data allows us to track these whales.

A prime example is what happened with TON. From April to October 2022 and September to November 2023, TON's price remained relatively low (between $1 and $2), and whale activity was significantly high. During these periods, over 40% of TON tokens transferred on the network came from whales.

In the following months, the price began to rise and is now above $7. Monitoring whale movements in the future can help identify potential price peaks. Feel free to use the on-chain dashboard for this purpose.

Written by maartunn

Bitcoin reserves on Coinbase have been rapidly declining since February 2024.

The main suspect behind the rapidly declining reserves is Spot ETFs.

While there were 1,044,997 Bitcoins on February 18, 2024, the reserves on the Coinbase exchange dropped to 878K following the increased demand due to Spot ETFs. Considering the possible interest rate cut in September 2024, what changes do you think will occur in Coinbase's reserves?

Written by burakkesmeci

We are approaching the daily gap level where I expect the price to rise.

I have indicated the level I expect to work as support on the open interest indicator.

We broke the Coinbase Premium Index trendline where we were rejected. Although the price fell, the indicator continued to rise. This is a positive data.

As seen in the funding rates, people are opening bullish trades. I think the uptrend will start after one last manipulation.

The increase in the Estimated Leverage Ratio shows that people are opening highly leveraged trades. Manipulation will be healthy to throw these players out.

The increase in the total amount of coins transferred from the exchange shows that the selling pressure is decreasing. Coinbase advanced data shows a positive and gradual increase.

Written by TraderOasis

We are approaching the daily gap level where I expect the price to rise.

I have indicated the level I expect to work as support on the open interest indicator.

We broke the Coinbase Premium Index trendline where we were rejected. Although the price fell, the indicator continued to rise. This is a positive data.

As seen in the funding rates, people are opening bullish trades. I think the uptrend will start after one last manipulation.

The increase in the Estimated Leverage Ratio shows that people are opening highly leveraged trades. Manipulation will be healthy to throw these players out.

The increase in the total amount of coins transferred from the exchange shows that the selling pressure is decreasing. Coinbase advanced data shows a positive and gradual increase.

Written by TraderOasis

Bull market tops mark the transition between Bitcoin cycles and are characterized by a series of confluence of factors.

One of the main market factors is the high profitability rate among smaller and new participants.

The quest for profit maximization in bullish periods attracts many inexperienced investors, and this generates relatively high unrealized profits.

For now, we have not seen such a scenario and Bitcoin follows a modest growth curve when compared to previous cycles.

This does not mean that it will remain this way for the next few months, but it provides a perspective that we will need higher prices to see a higher risk structure with respect to the long-term cycle.

In addition, the global search for Bitcoin has not yet followed the price evolution that we have seen in the last 12 months.

Demand remains modest, but we will need a renewal to continue rising higher. Which is a matter of time for it to occur.

Written by caueconomy

In order to predict the peak of a bull market, what is more important than large whales is the influx of small whales and general investors.

This chart shows the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin in the range of 10 to 100 and represents the expected inflow of funds from small whales and retail investors.

This chart, which shows a gentle rise in the early part of the rising cycle, rises sharply from the mid to late part, and the cycle ends after Bitcoin's strong rise.

Since 2024 is the time when the inflow of small whales and general investors began to rapidly increase, and the second half of the bull market has only begun, the possibility of additional capital inflow and a strong rise in Bitcoin can be seen as open in the near future.

Written by Crypto Dan

Reserve Risk Indicators integrate key metrics like VOCD, MVOCD, and Signal. This composite chart visualizes the confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders relative to its current price, guiding investment decisions.

Calculating Reserve Risk involves steps such as Bitcoin Days Destroyed (BDD) and Adjusted Bitcoin Days Destroyed (ABDD), which normalize for Bitcoin's circulating supply. Other metrics included in the chart are Value of Coin (Days) Destroyed (VOCD), calculated as VOCD = ∑ (Daily Bitcoin price * Adjusted BDD), and MVOCD, which is a median of VOCD to smooth the data. These metrics reflect accumulated confidence among holders over time, aiding in identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities.

Historical analysis shows that low Reserve Risk periods have historically yielded outsized returns, underscoring its relevance in assessing market sentiment and investor behavior.

Historically, when MVOCD exceeds Bitcoin's price, it signals resistance and the formation of local tops. The most recent bearish signal occurred from late March to early April 2024, and since then, Bitcoin has not reached new highs.

An interesting fact to note is that from 2017 to early 2018, there were two bearish signals, and in 2021, the bearish signal appeared before the historical peak. Thus, while this combination of metrics is effective, it is still possible to see new all-time highs, depending on how blockchain data adjusts according to long-term investors' behavior. For now, the current peak at $73,800 is defined as the historical maximum for 2024.

Written by joaowedson

New Negative Netflow for Derivative Exchange

A negative value indicates reserves are decreasing.

A negative value leads to decreasing reserves for opening new short positions.

Written by Amr Taha

Inverse Relationship:

There appears to be an inverse relationship between Bitcoin's price and miner reserves. As the price of Bitcoin increases, miner reserves tend to decrease, and vice versa.

Price Peak and Reserve Decline:

The peak in Bitcoin's price around March 2024 corresponds with a significant decline in miner reserves. This could suggest that miners are selling off their reserves to capitalize on the high prices.

This chart is valuable for understanding how miner behavior (in terms of holding or selling Bitcoin) might influence market prices and can be used to make informed decisions. As you can see, miner reserves are decreasing, which means the bull market is still ongoing.

Written by Amr Taha

A short-term holder indicated that Bitcoin was carried at a loss when it fell below 1 during the last decline.

After falling below the level of 1 for intraday trading, if we remain above the MA34 simultaneously, we have reached a possible reaction zone. The short-term holder suggested that we have entered a potential reaction area during panic selling.

The price showed support at 66k, resulting in a short-term 6% increase.

At 1.01, selling pressure began, leading to an increase. Since the price is within this range, it may continue to face stress pressure. The best buying opportunities in a bull trend are within the range of 0.95-0.90.

Wait for a break below 1 for intraday trading, wait for the green area for a little longer.

Thanks for reading.

Written by XBTManager

frustrating sideways movement of the price chart has been ongoing for a long time, and market interest is declining.

The funding rates, which used to react significantly to even small price movements, now show no movement.

This situation is the best time for futures whales to accumulate new positions.

Open interest has been increasing rapidly since the end of May.

Futures whales provide strong volatility to the market.

Written by Mignolet

At this point, we have reached a 4 year low in the number of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges.

Funds have accumulated a total of over 1,000,000 BTC to provide Bitcoin ETFs, the best part is that this is just the beginning!

Federal Reserve rates are still just as high, it's only a matter of time before the money supply bursts into another huge bubble.

1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin

∞ Money Printing = Eternal Bitcoin Growth

Written by Kirill Evans

The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) indicator, combined with the AVIV Ratio, represents an innovative approach to evaluating the average price of digital assets, particularly effective for Bitcoin. Unlike the Realized Price, which assesses the value of assets based on their acquisition prices, the TMMP uses a methodology that considers market dynamics and investor behavior over time.

The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) is calculated by dividing the difference between the Realized Market Cap and the Thermo Market Cap by the time-weighted active supply (Active Supply). This formula provides a measure that reflects the digital asset's average market price, considering both historical transactions and the current circulating supply.

The AVIV Ratio complements the TMMP by comparing the active market valuation with the realized valuation, highlighting significant discrepancies that may indicate investment opportunities or risks. This metric, developed to provide a deeper understanding of Bitcoin's market behavior, has proven to be a robust tool for analysts and investors seeking to understand and anticipate price trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Some important considerations: when the AVIV Ratio turns yellow or red, Bitcoin encounters resistance, signaling that investors are distributing their coins and the cycle's peak is near.

Written by joaowedson

What Do Hash Ribbons Indicate?

Hash ribbons are a technical indicator that analyzes the health of the Bitcoin mining ecosystem by examining the hash rate and its moving averages. When the hash rate falls significantly, it often signals miner capitulation, where miners stop mining due to decreased profitability. Conversely, when the hash rate recovers, it can indicate a period of miner recovery and potential price strength.

Current Market Analysis

Following the recent Bitcoin halving, we have observed nearly a month of challenging conditions for miners. Despite these difficulties, the price has shown remarkable resilience, avoiding sustained downward movements. Historically, such periods, especially during the summer months, have led to notable price volatility driven by miner actions. However, in the current scenario, miners alone do not appear to have the power to significantly influence the price.

Market Resilience

The ongoing demand for Bitcoin is playing a crucial role in maintaining price stability. Even though miner capitulation typically exerts downward pressure on prices, the strong market demand is preventing significant price declines. This indicates that the market is currently robust, with sufficient buying interest to absorb selling pressure from miners.

Conclusion

The analysis of hash ribbons and the current market dynamics suggest that despite the challenges faced by miners post-halving, the Bitcoin market remains strong. The sustained demand is a positive indicator of market resilience and strength, highlighting that the current price stability is supported by more than just miner activity.

This period demonstrates the market's ability to maintain a solid foundation even amidst potential adversities, indicating a strong and healthy Bitcoin ecosystem.

Written by Kripto Mevsimi

1⃣ Short-Term Holder (STH) Activity:

STHs are moving their BTC to exchanges, as shown by the net profit/loss chart. This behavior suggests that STHs sold in panic when the price dropped. As you can see, they sold at a loss.

2⃣ BTC Inflows to Accumulation Addresses:

While STHs were selling at a loss, long-term investors were buying the dip, as shown by the large amount of Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses on June 11.

✅ Summary:

Next time, consider whether it's worth selling at a loss and giving your Bitcoins to someone else, especially in a bull market.

A lot of people think this way: "It's falling, so I'll sell now and buy back lower." Believe me, it doesn't work. I tested it myself in the last bull market. Often, doing nothing is the best option. 🧠

If you liked this post, please leave a like 💙, comment, and follow my profile 👉 @IT_Tech_PL on X.

Written by IT Tech

More than 20,000 Bitcoin flow to whale wallets. It appears that the whales took advantage of yesterday’s correction in Bitcoin and accumulated additional quantities.

The whales seem to have capitalized on yesterday’s Bitcoin correction and increased their holdings.

Written by abramchart

After Bitcoin recently failed to surpass $72,000, the investment sentiment of market participants is dying.

The number of Bitcoin active addresses indicates how many wallets are actively transferring coins. After reaching a peak in March, it has decreased significantly due to Bitcoin's correction and sideways movement over a period of about three months.

Bitcoin is like this, but the sentiment of altcoin investors, who have recently been sluggish, is bound to be even worse.

It is difficult to know the exact time, but the end of the adjustment period usually occurs when the psychology of market participants has significantly decreased, as it does now.

Ultimately, if Bitcoin sets a major direction first, altcoins will also move accordingly in the second half of 2024.

Written by Crypto Dan

The Largest Ethereum Outflow of the Year from Coinbase (336K+): What Does It Mean?

What’s behind this outflow exceeding $1 billion in value?

The 5th Withdrawal Exceeding 150K

Analyzing Coinbase's 2024 data, we can observe that this is the 5th time more than 150,000 Ethereum has been withdrawn from the exchange.

These large transactions (made in a single day) range between $400 million and $1.1 billion each, it's overly optimistic to think that individual investors are behind them. It’s highly likely that these significant Ethereum withdrawals are driven by whales or as-yet-unknown institutions.

If it's not an internal movement (exchanges sometimes do this), we have a quite positive indicator for the long term.

✅Comment

Although the significant Ethereum withdrawal from Coinbase is noteworthy, the exact reason behind it and its impact on the market remains unclear.

However, we observed similar activities on Coinbase before the trading of Bitcoin Spot ETFs began. The withdrawal valued at $1.17 billion on June 12, 2024, might be driven by whales or institutions anticipating an increase in Ethereum prices alongside the introduction of Spot ETFs.

Whether this assumption is correct will become clear in the coming days. However, such movements that reduce the circulating supply (high demand) are expected to have a positive impact on the price in the medium to long term.

Written by burakkesmeci