CryptoQuant Quicktake

On February 6, 2026, on-chain data highlighted a significant shift in Bitcoin liquidity dynamics originating from Binance.

Two critical trends emerged simultaneously:

Spot Rotation: Over 7,000 BTC flowed from Binance to other spot exchanges. This marks the second-highest daily volume in the past year, suggesting a dispersal of assets, likely for liquidity management or arbitrage opportunities across different platforms.

Derivative Speculation: More notably, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of flows from Binance to derivative exchanges spiked to 3,200 BTC. This is the highest level recorded since January 2024.

Implication:

While the price of Bitcoin has corrected to the $67K region, this aggressive migration of funds—particularly to derivative platforms—indicates that market participants are not sitting idle. The surge in derivative inflows suggests that large entities (whales) are likely hedging against further downside or positioning for high-volatility speculative moves. The simultaneous spot outflow could indicate a reduction of counterparty risk on a single exchange. Consequently, we should anticipate heightened market volatility in the short term as these positions go live.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Accumulating Address - Ethereum:

• No outflow in history.

• Last Inflow amount >= 100 ETH.

• Sum of inflow count >= 2.

• Balance >= 100 ETH.

• Have transaction in last 7 years.

• Not CEX address or miner address.

• Not Contract address.

These wallets currently hold 27M ETH. This represents approximately 23% of the total circulating supply.

Over the last 9 years, ETH has traded below the Realized Price of Accumulating Addresses only twice. The first time was during the 2025 ATL, and the second has been unfolding since January 2026.

Written by _OnChain

• Power Law Divergence (by Ben Sizelove): This indicator reflects how far BTC’s price is from its long-term trend. Positive values indicate overextension, while negative values indicate undervaluation.

• In the latest market drop, it reached -95.

• The last time this happened after an ATH was in November 2022.

Written by _OnChain

U.S. retail sales for December fell short of expectations in both the core measure and the retail control group, signaling a clear deceleration in consumer spending—the backbone of the economy. This appears less like short-term noise and more like a potential turning point in the business cycle.

Bitcoin is currently best described as being in a “corrective phase within a broader bearish trend.” Directionally, bearish forces remain conditionally dominant, though the assessment is sensitive to shifts in financial conditions and capital flows.

Macro data point to simultaneous slowdowns in consumption and wages. The downside surprise in retail sales raises risks to corporate revenues and employment, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI) also undershot expectations, indicating easing wage inflation. This combination makes the Federal Reserve more attentive to growth risks, while keeping pressure on risk assets amid slowing growth.

Manufacturing employment continues its long-term decline, suggesting recessionary conditions in a cyclical sector. Taken together, consumption, wages, and manufacturing imply a phase of disinflation alongside slowing growth.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term risk-off moves, similar to equities, even as expectations of future easing can spark rebounds. The quality of those rebounds is key. Since late 2025, the Coinbase Premium Gap has remained persistently negative, signaling weak U.S. spot demand and price action driven largely by derivatives. In prior bull-market onsets, this premium stabilized in positive territory—conditions not yet met today.

The base case is a demand-verification phase under macro slowdown. However, sustained improvement in U.S. spot demand—via ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase Premium—would warrant revisiting this view.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

In a still challenging market environment, Bitcoin continues its correction and has recently exceeded a 50% drawdown, marking the deepest pullback observed since the start of this cycle.

Despite this sharp decline, stablecoin netflow data shows continued investor engagement during this phase.

On a monthly average basis, across all exchanges, ERC 20 stablecoin netflows moved from -$87.9 million on December 1 to around -$134.3 million today. In other words, net stablecoin outflows from exchanges have intensified, signaling a form of broad de-risking.

This pattern is not uniform across exchanges. CeFi platforms like Nexo are showing the opposite trend, potentially indicating more selective capital deployment.

On December 1, average monthly stablecoin outflows stood at about -$5.8 million as Bitcoin’s correction was accelerating. As the downturn continued, flows reversed, and stablecoin netflows on Nexo turned positive, now reaching roughly $1.8 million.

Part of these inflows likely went toward spot exposure, but not exclusively. On Nexo, stablecoins also enable investors to deploy yield-generating strategies and diversify their positions despite a difficult market phase.

Stablecoins now account for a larger share of borrowing collateral on Nexo, rising from 1.8% to 3.3% since July 2025.

This shift reflects their growing use as collateral in yield strategies.

Written by Darkfost

On-chain data confirms that the "Double Capitulation" of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Miners was structurally absorbed by medium-to-large whales.

1. Double Capitulation (Sell-side)

On Feb 5th, a systemic "clean-out" of weak hands occurred as Bitcoin prices dipped into the low $60K range. The Miners' Position Index (MPI) spiked violently to 2.95, confirming aggressive liquidations by miners to cover operational costs during the plunge. Simultaneously, the STH Realized Price (weighted average of holders <155 days) stood at $92,009, placing recent buyers in a severe "underwater" position where the STH SOPR at 0.977 proved they realized significant losses.

2. The Absorption: Strategic Whale Accumulation (Buy-side)

This supply was absorbed into large-scale, off-exchange wallets. Whales holding 100–1,000 BTC dominated the market, accounting for 77% of the total inflow dominance during the dip. According to the LTH Realized Cap Change (7d) data, Long-Term Holders showed strong conviction by adding over $5.68B (Feb 5) and maintaining a positive change of $1.88B by Feb 10. This steady capital inflow from LTHs near the $69K level established strong downward price rigidity.

3. Conclusion

While the immediate panic has subsided with MPI collapsing to -1.31, the market is not entirely out of the woods. The Hashprice recovered from its Feb 5th low to 0.035 on Feb 9th 📈, but it remains significantly below the 365-day moving average (0.048). This indicates that miners are still operating under strained profitability, meaning the risk of further sell-side pressure persists if prices remain stagnant. Although a "Supply Shock" is primed due to whale absorption, the $91,855 STH Cost Basis and low miner revenue suggest a cautious outlook is required until a decisive demand catalyst emerges.

Written by Easy On Chain

Everyone blamed Binance FUD, but Exchange data reveals something different. This is market-wide bearish withdrawal, and Binance is handling it better than most exchanges.

Between January and February 2026, the crypto exchange ecosystem experienced massive withdrawals. Over 78 percent of all exchanges showed net outflows. The numbers tell the story social media missed.

Binance saw withdrawals increase from 420 million dollars on January 12th to 5.94 billion dollars by February 9th. Their withdrawal to deposit ratio hit 4.65, meaning users pulled out nearly five times more than they deposited. That sounds catastrophic until you check the broader market.

The market average withdrawal ratio was 5.71 across all exchanges. Binance's 4.65 ratio is actually below average. The median exchange showed 1.67 in withdrawals for every dollar deposited. This proves the entire market is experiencing bearish pressure.

Total exchange inflows reached 445 billion dollars in February while outflows hit 456 billion dollars. The market shed nearly 11 billion collectively. Binance's 5.94 billion in outflows against total market loss of 11 billion shows their 21.96 percent market share lines up with their proportion of outflows.

On January 12th, 92 percent of exchanges recorded net outflows. By February 9th this dropped to 78 percent but remained severely bearish. During bear markets, users move funds to cold storage wallets. The blockchain confirms this pattern across the industry.

Only seventeen exchanges showed positive inflows on February 9th out of eighty platforms. Bitfinex led with 1.33 billion in net positive flows. These exceptions prove bearish markets create widespread exchange withdrawals regardless of platform reputation.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The full-scale accumulation of $ETH by whales began in June 2025.

The current price is below the price at which they began accumulating. Furthermore, their accumulation is proceeding even more aggressive.

The current price will likely appear attractive to $ETH whales.

Written by CW8900

Bitcoin: New investor inflows have flipped negative. The sell-off is not being absorbed by fresh capital.

📊 Current State:

• 30-day flow: −$2.6B (cumulative)

• Dips are not attracting new participants

• Historical inflow spikes seen during uptrends are absent

📌 Context:

In bull markets, drawdowns attract accelerating capital. In early bear markets, weakness triggers withdrawal. Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows.

💬 Comment:

Without renewed inflows, upside moves remain corrective. This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation.

Written by IT Tech

On-chain data is beginning to reflect a structural shift as Long-Term Holder (LTH) spending accelerates sharply. The 30-day cumulative outflow from this cohort has climbed toward cycle highs, a pattern historically associated with late-stage bullish environments. Rather than accumulating, seasoned investors appear to be distributing into market strength, transferring supply to newer participants as price trades near elevated levels.

What makes the current setup more nuanced is the simultaneous deterioration in Apparent Demand Growth. Despite the increase in coins being spent, fresh capital inflows are not expanding at the same pace. Demand has slipped into negative territory, signaling that the market’s ability to absorb distributed supply is weakening. Similar divergences in prior cycles often marked transition phases where bullish momentum slowed before either consolidation or correction unfolded.

Demand Momentum further reinforces this cooling dynamic. After multiple strong positive expansions throughout the 2024–2025 rally, momentum has now rolled over decisively. This shift reflects softening spot absorption and a slowdown in marginal buyer aggression key forces that previously sustained upside continuation.

From a macro on-chain lens, the market is not yet signaling a confirmed cycle top, but conditions are clearly evolving. Elevated LTH spending paired with weakening demand momentum points to redistribution rather than fresh accumulation. For bullish structure to remain intact, demand metrics must stabilize and re-expand to absorb ongoing supply.

Until that occurs, Bitcoin is likely to face heightened volatility, with distribution pressure acting as a near-term headwind while the market searches for its next equilibrium.

Written by CryptoZeno

Recent on-chain data reveals a concerning trend regarding market liquidity. The Tether USD (ERC20) Exchange Reserve across all exchanges has dropped significantly since late December, returning to levels last seen in October. This depletion of stablecoin liquidity coincides with Bitcoin’s price correction, signaling a reduction in immediate buying power.

Key Data Points:

Decline since Dec 30: Total USDT (ERC20) reserves on exchanges have plummeted from the ~$60B level on December 30th to approximately $53B currently.

Binance Outflows: Binance indicates a significant portion of this movement, with its USDT reserves falling from ~$43B to ~$38B.

Market Implications:

This massive outflow of over $7B in stablecoins has occurred parallel to Bitcoin’s correction from ~$93k to $69k.

Typically, during a healthy dip, we expect stablecoin reserves to remain high or increase as traders wait to “buy the dip.” However, the simultaneous drop in both BTC price and USDT reserves suggests capital flight. Investors appear to be withdrawing liquidity from exchanges entirely (likely to fiat or DeFi) rather than keeping dry powder ready on exchanges.

Conclusion:

Stablecoin reserves represent the “fuel” needed for the next leg up. The current trend suggests a lack of aggressive buy-side demand at current levels. For a sustainable market reversal, we need to see a return of USDT inflows to exchanges, rebuilding the purchasing power required to absorb the selling pressure.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Long-term on-chain data highlights a persistent and significant decline in Bitcoin Exchange Reserves, which have now hit multi-year lows around 2.74M BTC. Does this signal an impending price surge?

Historical Context:

History suggests that major depletions in exchange supply often precede bullish price action:

March – Nov 2020: Reserves dropped from 3.27M to 2.9M. This reduction in sell-side liquidity helped fuel the massive bull run of 2021.

Nov 2022: We witnessed a parabolic drop where reserves plummeted from 3.52M to ~3M in a matter of days. This capitulation marked the cycle bottom, followed by a price recovery.

Current Outlook:

We are currently witnessing a similar macro trend. Over the past two years, total exchange reserves have drained significantly, falling from roughly 3.2M to the current level of 2.74M.

Conclusion:

This consistent decline indicates that investors are moving coins to cold storage, effectively removing liquid supply from the market. With exchange balances at such low levels, a potential “Supply Shock” is forming. If history is any guide, this reduction in available supply creates a highly bullish setup for price appreciation, provided demand remains steady.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Ethereum exchange netflow data over the past few days indicates a clear acceleration in withdrawal activity from exchanges, signaling a notable shift in investor behavior toward reducing the amount of supply available for selling.

Across all exchanges, net Ethereum outflows have exceeded 220,000 ETH, marking the highest level of withdrawals since last October. This elevated volume reflects a strong wave of ETH being transferred to private wallets or long-term storage protocols, a pattern that is often associated with accumulation phases or risk-reduction behavior.

On Binance, daily net outflows reached approximately -158,000 ETH on February 5, the largest since last August, confirming that a substantial portion of the recent outflows has been concentrated on the exchange with the deepest liquidity.

From a price perspective, these strong outflows coincided with Ethereum trading near the $1,800–$2,000 range, suggesting that some investors are treating these levels as attractive zones for holding or repositioning, particularly following the recent market pullback.

The continued outflow of Ethereum from exchanges at this scale reduces immediate selling pressure and is considered a structurally supportive factor for price in the near term, especially if it is accompanied by stabilization or improvement in market momentum.

Written by Arab Chain

This article examines the current Bitcoin market through the lens of a simple question: could Bitcoin be entering a new “winter phase”? The base assessment is that the market is no longer just a healthy pullback within a bull trend, but structurally closer to the early stage of winter, or a re-entry into it. Directionally, and only conditionally, downside pressure appears slightly dominant.

This view is not widely shared for clear reasons. Many participants psychologically want to believe that “this is not winter,” especially given fresh memories of 2022. In addition, the nominal price level remains far higher than during the prior winter, reinforcing the perception that conditions are fundamentally different. Bitcoin has also become structurally stronger through spot ETFs, institutional adoption, and improved infrastructure, making a repeat of past winters feel unlikely.

However, winter is defined not by price levels, but by shifts in supply-demand dynamics, capital flows, and sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 14 (Extreme Fear), indicating that sentiment has already deteriorated sharply despite elevated prices. This pattern aligns with past cycles, where psychology weakened before price fully adjusted.

Flow data reinforces this view. In 2024, $10B of inflows expanded market capitalization, while in 2025, over $300B of inflows coincided with a decline in market cap—suggesting persistent structural selling pressure. On-chain profit metrics also show declining realized gains despite high prices, signaling weakening internal momentum.

The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition. That view should be reassessed if ETF inflows stabilize and on-chain distribution clearly subsides.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

• During the latest market drop, BTC traded below the Realized Price of whales holding between 100 and 1k BTC ($7-70M at current prices). According to the most recent data, this RP currently stands at $69K.

• For reference: The last time this occurred after an ATH was in June 2022, when price traded below it for roughly seven months.

Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin on-chain structure is showing a clear divergence between mid-sized holder positioning and broader market demand. Dolphin cohorts continue expanding their total BTC balances, with holdings recently pressing toward new cycle highs despite weakening price momentum. The 30-day change in balances remains structurally positive, reinforcing that this group is still absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength.

However, the pace of accumulation is beginning to moderate. Monthly percentage change across Dolphin holdings has started to compress, signaling that while balances continue rising, the intensity of buying is slowing. This transition typically emerges during consolidation phases, when cohorts shift from aggressive expansion into more passive absorption while awaiting renewed market catalysts.

Demand conditions, in contrast, have deteriorated far more sharply. Apparent Demand (30-day) spiked aggressively during the last impulsive rally but has since reversed deeply into negative territory. The scale of this drawdown reflects a material cooldown in spot absorption, suggesting recent inflows were not sustained long enough to maintain upside continuation.

Breaking demand into structural components reinforces this slowdown. ETF inflows, which previously acted as a dominant marginal bid, have flattened, while Strategy-related accumulation has also stabilized after earlier bursts of expansion. With institutional demand no longer accelerating, the divergence between ongoing Dolphin accumulation and weakening aggregate demand creates a transitional market structure where supply is absorbed, but upside momentum remains capped until demand growth reaccelerates.

Written by CryptoZeno

• During the latest market drop, ETH traded below the Realized Price of whales holding at least 100k ETH. According to the most recent data, this RP currently stands at $2,075.

• The last time this occurred after an ATH was in September 2018, when price traded below it for roughly six months.

• Ethereum has now reached a level with a favorable risk-reward profile to start more aggressive long-term DCA accumulation.

Written by _OnChain

Recent collateral composition data shows that Bitcoin remains the dominant strategy for borrowers. This shows that Bitcoin is not only for remittances, or trading, but also for lending and borrowing. Nexo clients treat Bitcoin as pristine collateral.

The data included is a chart of Collateral Composition (%) for each quarter. It’s specifically data for Nexo. It shows that borrowers aren’t rotating into BTC for short-term speculation. They’re using Bitcoin as long-term collateral to access liquidity without selling.

Key takeaways:

- BTC consistently holds ~54–60% share of total collateral

- Even as the market corrected, Bitcoin dominance increased to 56.2% in Q1 2026.

- Credit demand aligns with conviction, not trading activity

It’s a key evidence that Bitcoin is more than a crypto to trade. It’s the asset people trust to back their credit.

Written by maartunn

While Bitcoin price action remains bearish, dropping to the $69K range, on-chain data from Binance reveals a significant shift in investor behavior. A massive divergence has formed between the falling price and the average size of withdrawals from the exchange.

Key Data Points

The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of Exchange Outflow (Mean) on Binance has witnessed a vertical spike.

January 28: The indicator was hovering around 6 BTC.

February 8: It surged to 13.3 BTC.

Significance: This represents the highest average outflow size recorded since November 2024.

On-Chain Analysis

Whale Activity Indicator: The “Mean Outflow” metric represents the average amount of Bitcoin withdrawn per transaction. A sharp increase in this value—doubling in just 10 days—strongly suggests that whales and institutional players are dominating the withdrawal activity, rather than retail investors.

Buying the Dip: Large entities are seizing the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices (approx. $69K). The timing of these large withdrawals, coinciding with the price crash, indicates high conviction among smart money investors.

Supply Shock: Moving coins off the largest exchange (Binance) to cold storage reduces the immediate sell-side pressure and decreases the liquid supply available on the order books.

Conclusion

The market is currently witnessing a classic “accumulation during capitulation” scenario. While sentiment is fearful, the sharp rise in the Mean Exchange Outflow confirms that large-scale investors are aggressively buying and withdrawing Bitcoin, signaling potential support formation at these levels.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The chart highlights several important periods.

During March-April 2025, whale to exchange flow remained very low while price showed weak reactions. Whales were not selling, supply tightened, and this was followed by a sharp rally in July 2025.

In June-July 2025, while the ratio was still near historical lows, the initial rally began. As price moved higher, profit-taking followed, and whale flow spiked near the peak, signaling distribution.

During December 2025 January 2026, the ratio again stayed very low while price continued to decline. Selling pressure during this period was mainly driven by retail investors, not whales.

Currently, Whale to Exchange Flow remains near historical lows, while price has dropped sharply to around $1.42. This decline is not accompanied by sustained whale selling. Panic selling is largely coming from smaller investors, while whales appear to be waiting for better opportunities.

Based on historical behavior, price may continue to move sideways or slightly lower in the short term as volatility decreases. This could be followed by sudden, low-volume upside wicks. When a real rally begins, whale selling is likely to appear, potentially leading to deeper pullbacks.

Tracking this metric specifically on Binance is critical. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives volume in XRP and the deepest order books. It is the primary trading venue for whales and institutions. While other exchanges may reflect transfers or wallet movements, the capital that truly moves price is concentrated on Binance.

In summary, Binance Whale to Exchange Flow measures action, not expectation, and acts as a leading indicator by capturing behavior before price reacts.

Written by PelinayPA