CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) market cap fell to $236.2 billion on July 25, marking only the second time the metric has moved below the level recorded on October 3, 2024, which was the lowest reading seen during 2024.
The decline highlights a significant contraction in the market value currently held within Bitcoin’s short-term holder cohort, while recent realized profit and loss data also point to renewed pressure on newer market participants.
On July 13, Bitcoin short-term holder realized losses surged to approximately $1.75 billion, marking another sharp wave of loss realization.
The losses were around $340 million, or 24%, higher than the $1.41 billion recorded on June 2.
This creates an important divergence: short-term holders are no longer realizing losses at the intensity seen earlier in July, yet the total market value represented by this cohort remains near unusually depressed historical levels.
The decline in STH market cap should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent amount of capital leaving Bitcoin.
The metric can also be affected by Bitcoin aging out of the short-term holder classification into the long-term holder cohort, alongside changes in BTC price and the amount of supply classified as short-term held.
Overall, the combination of a $236.2 billion STH market cap and the recent -$1.75 billion realized-loss event indicates that Bitcoin’s newer holders have experienced substantial pressure, while the continued contraction of the short-term cohort remains one of the key on-chain developments to watch.
Written by Amr Taha

According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum may be approaching a long-term accumulation phase, and Binance data is providing one of the clearest signals.
The amount of ETH held on Binance has fallen from nearly 5 million ETH in mid-2025 to around 3.8 million ETH today. Exchange reserves typically decline when investors withdraw assets into self-custody or long-term storage rather than keeping them available for sale. This suggests immediate selling pressure is gradually easing.
The trend aligns with another important on-chain signal. Ethereum is currently trading below its Realized Price, the average on-chain acquisition cost of all ETH holders. Historically, when ETH trades below this level, the market has often entered periods of accumulation before a broader recovery.
CryptoQuant also notes that ETH/BTC trading activity has already fallen into the range that marked previous cycle bottoms, while institutional demand, measured through ETF holdings, has started to recover after months of weakness. Although valuation metrics such as the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio have not yet reached historical bottom levels, several indicators are moving in a constructive direction.
From XWIN's perspective, Binance reserves deserve particular attention because they reflect real investor behavior rather than market sentiment alone. A sustained decline in exchange balances usually means fewer coins are immediately available for sale, reducing potential supply pressure.
While this does not confirm that Ethereum has reached its final bottom, the combination of declining Binance reserves, improving on-chain metrics, and recovering institutional interest suggests that downside risk is gradually diminishing. If this trend continues, Ethereum could be well positioned to outperform Bitcoin during the next phase of the market cycle.
Written by XWIN Japan

Ethereum’s two-week climb from 1,796 to a peak of 1,933 stalled on July 23, pulling back to $1,876. The price action alone isn’t the interesting part - it’s what’s happening in the fee layer that’s worth a closer look.
For most of the past quarter, base-layer economics on Ethereum have been remarkably quiet: median transaction fees sit more than 82% below their 90-day average, and tip fees are down roughly 96%. But the very short-term readings tell a different story. Over the past week, median tip fees jumped nearly 86%, and median transaction fees rose about 16%. This is a small absolute move on a very low base, but the direction matters - it’s the first meaningful uptick in fee pressure after a long stretch of decline, often an early hint that block space is starting to see competition again.
Reinforcing the “building, not speculating” read, new smart contract deployments remain elevated - up close to 190% versus the 90-day baseline. Fresh contracts plus rising tips can point to genuine on-chain demand returning rather than idle capital.
On the exchange side, the picture is mixed. Binance funding rates actually cooled about 28% week-over-week, suggesting leverage isn’t the main driver here - a notable contrast to phases where price gains lean heavily on derivatives. Net exchange flows swung sharply too, from a -73,000 ETH outflow on July 20 to modest inflows as price peaked and pulled back.
Meanwhile staking keeps grinding higher to a fresh 33.69%, steadily thinning the liquid float.
The takeaway isn’t directional. It’s that fee activity and contract deployment are quietly recovering while leverage stays subdued - an early-stage combination that, if it persists, tends to reflect organic usage rather than speculative froth. Worth watching whether the fee uptick holds or fades back into the prior lull.
Written by CryptoOnchain

XRP exchange reserves are showing a notable divergence across major trading venues, with Upbit falling to its lowest level since May while Binance remains well below its March peak.
Upbit’s XRP reserve declined to approximately 6.43 billion XRP, marking its lowest reading since May.
The exchange had reached a recent reserve high of about 6.515 billion XRP on May 30, meaning its balance has decreased by roughly 85 million XRP, or about 1.3%, from that peak.
The scale of Upbit’s reserve also remains notable compared with other major exchanges displayed in the dataset.
At 6.43 billion XRP, Upbit currently holds roughly 2.47 times the XRP reserve recorded on Binance.
Binance’s XRP reserve stood near 2.60 billion XRP on July 24, compared with a 2026 high of approximately 2.80 billion XRP on March 17. This represents a decline of around 200 million XRP, or roughly 7.1%, from the March peak.
Bithumb, meanwhile, recorded approximately 1.83 billion XRP, placing its reserve close to the levels observed on May 30. This creates a clear divergence across the three exchanges: Upbit has moved to a multi-month low, Binance remains materially below its March high, while Bithumb has returned near its late-May level.
The differences are particularly relevant when monitoring XRP’s exchange-side liquidity structure.
Upbit and Bithumb both maintain comparatively large XRP balances among the exchanges shown in the dataset, making changes in their reserves useful indicators when assessing how exchange-held XRP liquidity is evolving.
Importantly, reserve declines alone do not determine whether XRP is being moved into self-custody, transferred between platforms, or redistributed through other market channels.
Written by Amr Taha

So if smart money is buying record amounts while price drops, what could that be telling us?
What Is LTH Net Position Change?
LTH Net Position Change shows how much the total BTC held by long-term investors has increased or decreased over 30 days.
The green zone means these hands are accumulating, while the red zone means they're selling. In short, this metric lets us read what smart money is actually doing. The higher the green climbs, the more aggressive the buying.
Current Situation
Right now this metric is firing a flare in the positive direction.
The largest green reading in 6 years just printed. On May 24, 2026, it hit 1.29 million BTC/30D, surpassing even the August 2017 record. In other words, the strongest hands were on stage exactly when price was at its weakest. Accumulation on this scale is proof that strong hands are still present for the long term.
As Bitcoin approaches the realized price level, strong hands step onto the stage.
Conclusion
On its own, this data isn't enough to call the bull back, but that doesn't change the fact that it's a strong positive signal.
On top of that, following these buys, Bitcoin staged a roughly 15% rally from 58K to 66K. The strong LTH sentiment that came after the record data carried price almost all the way to the STH RP (short-term holder cost basis), which is 68K. Whether or not this level gets broken will be the critical decision zone that determines the short-term trend.
Do you think BTC can close above the STH RP (68K) in Q3?
Written by burakkesmeci

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the number of ERC20 stablecoin deposit transactions into Binance is currently around 12K transactions, after several strong spikes appeared in July.
This shows that stablecoin activity moving onto Binance is still being maintained, reflecting that some liquidity is returning to the exchange to prepare for trading or wait for buying opportunities.
However, the current level has cooled down compared to the previous large spikes, so it is still too early to say that stablecoin inflows are clearly exploding again.
Written by Rei Researcher

Recent on-chain metrics show a noticeable uptick in Exchange Inflows within the 6M–12M Spent Output Age Bands, accompanied by heightened volatility in its market dominance. This increased movement of coins—held between 6 and 12 months—toward exchanges may suggest that this particular cohort is actively rebalancing or repositioning their assets, which could potentially signal early preparations for the next market phase.
Written by nino

Data shows that the BTC MVRV Ratio has declined significantly from the cycle highs, but it is still trading above the Accumulation Zone around MVRV ≤ 1.
This suggests that $BTC valuation has cooled down considerably, but it has not yet entered a clearly undervalued zone like the deep accumulation phases seen in the past.
The notable point is that MVRV is still far from the Distribution / High Risk zone, showing that the market is no longer overheated. However, the fact that it has not revisited the accumulation zone also means that this cannot yet be confirmed as a complete cycle bottom.
Written by Rei Researcher

Ethereum reserves across major exchanges are showing a notable divergence, with Gemini falling to a multi-year low while Binance remains broadly stable.
Gemini’s ETH reserve declined to 384,400 ETH on July 24, its lowest level since March 2024. That marks a drop of roughly 188,600 ETH, or 32.9%, from 573,000 ETH recorded on April 23.
Bitfinex has also recorded a substantial decline.
Its Ethereum reserve fell from 2.71 million ETH on May 11 to 2.24 million ETH, a reduction of approximately 470,000 ETH, or 17.3%.
By contrast, Binance currently holds around 3.8 million ETH, broadly unchanged from its May 11 level.
Combined, Gemini and Bitfinex now hold approximately 658,600 fewer ETH than at their respective April and May reference levels.
At Ethereum’s current price near $1,880, that difference represents roughly $1.24 billion worth of ETH.
The data highlights increasingly different reserve trends across exchanges.
While lower exchange balances can reduce the amount of ETH immediately held on trading platforms, reserve data alone does not establish investor intent or determine the asset’s next price direction.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin's Supply in Profit (%), the share of bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low.
The recovery is real:
- In about three weeks, more than one in ten bitcoins swung from loss back into profit, with BTC up 7% in 30 days to around $65,100.
- Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio; 1.0 means coins move at break-even) sits at 0.9997: the coins recent buyers are moving get spent at break-even.
History sets a higher bar. Using one regime marker, the 30-day average of Long-Term Holder SOPR (calculated from CryptoQuant's daily data) durably reclaiming 1.0, the last four bear markets ended in:
- April 2012: Supply in Profit at 69%
- November 2015: 64%
- May 2019: 83%
- April 2023: 77%
Every real exit came with a profit cushion of roughly 64% or more.
- This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over.
- Today that average sits at 0.86, below 1.0 for 51 straight days.
Who is selling: the caveat.
- Coins older than six months spiked to 12-16% of exchange inflows in early July, right as the bounce began, then faded to 0.8% this past week versus 5.6% the month before.
- Old hands fed exchanges on the first leg; that flow has dried up.
- The overhang sits in the middle: cohorts that bought between one month and two years ago, with cost basis (their average acquisition price) between roughly $72K and $101K, remain underwater.
Until Supply in Profit clears the mid-60s and a reclaim outlasts April's 35 days, probabilities favor a recovery inside a bear regime, not a confirmed exit.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

Data indicates that XRP deposits on Binance have fallen to approximately 328,300 transactions over the past 30 days, marking their lowest level in over two months. During the same period, withdrawals totaled around 361,000 transactions, resulting in net XRP transactions of approximately -32,700, also the lowest level in more than two months.
The decline in deposits suggests that fewer XRP tokens are being transferred to Binance, reducing the amount of the cryptocurrency readily available for trading or potential selling on the exchange. Meanwhile, withdrawals continue to outpace deposits, highlighting the ongoing movement of XRP from Binance to private wallets or cold storage solutions. This behavior is commonly associated with long-term holding rather than an intention to sell immediately.
The combination of weaker deposit activity and consistently higher withdrawals points to a potential reduction in selling pressure on the exchange. With fewer XRP deposits entering Binance, the available spot market supply may continue to tighten if this trend persists. At the same time, the sustained dominance of withdrawals reflects growing confidence among some investors in holding their XRP outside centralized exchanges, a pattern often interpreted as a constructive signal for the asset's longer-term outlook.
Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin's futures market is showing early signs of improving sentiment, as reflected in Binance's perpetual futures funding rates. After spending an extended period in negative territory, funding rates have recently returned to positive levels, suggesting that market sentiment is shifting away from excessive bearishness and that demand for long positions is gradually recovering.
However, it is still too early to declare the start of a full-fledged bull market. If funding rates rise too quickly, it may indicate that leverage is becoming overly concentrated on the long side while spot demand remains relatively weak. Such an imbalance between futures and spot markets could increase the risk of a long squeeze and short-term price volatility.
At this stage, the market appears to be undergoing a normalization process rather than entering an overheated rally. Investor sentiment has improved from the extreme pessimism seen in previous months, but a sustainable uptrend will likely require stronger spot buying, particularly through continued ETF inflows and broader institutional demand.
The recovery in funding rates is an encouraging signal, but investors should continue monitoring whether spot demand confirms the improving sentiment in the futures market. A healthy bull market ultimately depends on both derivatives and spot markets moving higher together.
Written by XWIN Japan

Nikkei’s July 24, 2026 morning edition cited my estimate that a Japanese spot Bitcoin ETF could grow to as much as approximately $18.4 billion by fiscal 2028.
This is not a guaranteed forecast. It is a bullish scenario based on Japan’s household financial assets, investment fund market, NISA participation, domestic crypto demand, and the growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Japan’s household financial assets total roughly $14.6 trillion. A $18.4 billion Bitcoin ETF market would represent only about 0.13% of that amount. It would also equal approximately 1% of Japan’s public equity investment fund market, which exceeds $1.8 trillion.
The estimate assumes three sources of demand: existing crypto investors, new retail investors using securities accounts, and allocations from wealthy individuals, corporations, and financial institutions.
The U.S. experience is instructive. Excluding GBTC, spot Bitcoin ETFs expanded their holdings to around one million BTC, demonstrating how ETFs can connect traditional finance with digital assets.
The key is access. A Japanese Bitcoin ETF could allow investors to gain exposure through familiar brokerage and custody systems. Therefore, $18.4 billion should be viewed as an achievable upper-end market scenario—not guaranteed first-year net inflows.
Written by XWIN Japan

Binance Pool is one of the largest BTC mining pools in the network. Therefore, the wallet activity of miners within the pool serves as an important leading indicator of the potential direction of new Bitcoin supply entering the market. The selling or accumulation behavior of large scale miners can often have a direct impact on the supply balance in the spot market.
In the current chart, the Miner Supply Ratio has declined to 0.00. The gradual decrease in this indicator over the past few months suggests that Binance Pool miners are holding onto their Bitcoin instead of sending it to exchanges. This indicates that the amount of newly circulating supply has weakened. Although this alone does not guarantee a price increase, it is considered a positive signal showing that selling pressure from miners has eased significantly.
Meanwhile, the Miner Netflow Total stands at -8.37 BTC. A negative netflow indicates that more BTC is leaving Binance Pool wallets than entering them. This suggests that miners are withdrawing their Bitcoin holdings or transferring them to long term storage wallets.
Historically, periods of negative netflow among miners have coincided with reduced miner driven selling pressure entering the market.
Another notable metric on the chart is the MVRV Ratio, which currently stands at 1.25. An MVRV above 1 indicates that investors, on average, remain above their cost basis and are still in profit. However, the fact that the indicator is trading at lower levels compared to previous months suggests that the market is not in an overvalued state.
In summary, there is no sign of selling activity from miners. On the contrary, the data indicates that miners are restricting BTC supply. This reduces selling pressure in the market, while the MVRV ratio of 1.25 also supports the view that BTC is not currently trading in an excessively overvalued zone. In other words, miners are exhibiting behavior that helps reduce selling pressure rather than increase it.
Written by PelinayPA

Bitcoin inflows from mid-size investors remained below or close to their June 22 readings across Binance, Coinbase, and Coinbase Prime on July 23.
Binance recorded 3,000 BTC, below its previous reading of 3,446 BTC.
Coinbase registered 2,600 BTC, close to the previous 2,170 BTC, while
Coinbase Prime posted 1,264 BTC, below its previous reading of 1,560 BTC.
Combined inflows reached 6,864 BTC, slightly below the 7,176 BTC recorded on June 22. The gap between Binance and Coinbase also narrowed from 1,276 BTC to 400 BTC, showing a more balanced distribution across the two exchanges.
Previous Bitcoin corrections in October 2025 and January 2026 coincided with sharp inflow spikes concentrated on a single platform.
The current readings show no similar surge, reducing the likelihood of an immediate repeat of that sell-side pattern.
With Bitcoin trading near $65,800, contained and distributed inflows suggest limited immediate selling pressure and support a more constructive short-term outlook.
Written by Amr Taha

BlackRock’s IBIT recorded approximately $557 million in positive netflows across four sessions between July 14 and July 21, pointing to renewed and increasingly consistent demand for Bitcoin exposure through the ETF.
The fund attracted about $155 million on July 14, followed by $131 million on July 17, $114 million on July 20, and $157 million on July 21. The latest three readings alone totaled roughly $402 million, while the July 21 inflow was the strongest of the four sessions.
Demand was not limited to IBIT. On July 20, 21Shares ARKB added approximately $70 million, bringing the combined positive flows into the two funds to around $184 million for the day.
The key signal is the repetition of positive readings rather than a single exceptional inflow.
Continued ETF demand at similar levels could provide an important indication of sustained institutional participation in Bitcoin.
Written by Amr Taha

CryptoQuant's latest Binance on-chain data presents an interesting contrast. While daily Bitcoin inflows to Binance continue to fluctuate with occasional spikes, the 30-day Total Netflow remains close to or below neutral, indicating that withdrawals are largely offsetting deposits.
Large inflow spikes are often interpreted as potential selling pressure because investors typically move Bitcoin onto exchanges before trading. However, inflows alone do not tell the full story. The more important metric is netflow, which measures the balance between deposits and withdrawals.
The current chart shows that although Binance continues to receive Bitcoin deposits, sustained net inflows have weakened considerably compared with previous months. This suggests that much of the incoming BTC is either absorbed by market demand or followed by withdrawals into long-term custody.
As the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance serves as a key indicator of global market sentiment. A neutral or negative netflow generally reflects stronger holding behavior rather than aggressive selling, especially when Bitcoin prices remain stable or trend higher.
This divergence may indicate that investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin's long-term outlook. Instead of preparing for large-scale distribution, many participants appear to be using Binance primarily for liquidity while continuing to reduce exchange-held balances.
Although short-term volatility remains possible whenever inflows spike, the broader picture does not currently point to persistent selling pressure. Investors should continue monitoring Binance's netflow alongside ETF flows, exchange reserves, and stablecoin liquidity to determine whether accumulation or distribution is becoming the dominant market trend.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,500, and market sentiment has improved significantly compared with June.
Several positive factors are supporting the recovery. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have shifted from persistent outflows to renewed inflows, signaling that institutional investors are gradually returning. At the same time, regulatory progress, including the CLARITY Act in the U.S. and recent legal reforms in Japan, has strengthened confidence in the long-term growth of digital assets. On-chain data also shows continued accumulation by long-term holders and large Bitcoin holders, while macro conditions have become more supportive as inflation concerns ease.
However, a higher price alone does not confirm the start of a new bull market.
Three on-chain indicators suggest that the recovery remains in its early stage.
First, Bitcoin Apparent Demand has improved from the severe demand deficit seen earlier this year, but it remains in negative territory, indicating that new capital inflows are still insufficient.
Second, Adjusted SOPR has recovered toward 1.0, suggesting that panic selling is fading and investor sentiment is improving. Even so, it has not consistently remained above 1.0, meaning confidence is still rebuilding.
Finally, Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) has turned slightly positive after months of loss realization. This reflects improving market psychology, but profit-taking remains far below levels typically seen during strong bull markets.
Taken together, these indicators suggest that Bitcoin has moved beyond the worst phase of the downturn. Nevertheless, sustainable demand has yet to fully return. The market is improving, but confirmation of a lasting bull cycle will depend on stronger capital inflows and continued on-chain strength.
Written by XWIN Japan

XRP wallet activity turned sharply withdrawal-dominant across Coinbase, Binance and Crypto.com on July 22, producing a combined reading of approximately -13,026 net depositing versus withdrawing wallets over seven days.
Coinbase led the shift at -8,900, its first major negative reading since June 20, 2025, and nearly 2.8 times deeper than the previous -3,200 level.
Binance recorded -2,626, its second negative reading since June 30, when the metric fell to -6,216.
Crypto.com reached -1,500, marking its first negative reading since August 2025.
The current pattern contrasts with the sharp deposit-dominant spikes recorded on Coinbase and Binance on July 19 and October 7, 2025, which were later followed by an XRP price decline exceeding 65%.
With XRP trading near $1.14, the data highlights a notable reversal in exchange-side wallet behavior.
However, the metric measures wallet counts rather than XRP transfer volume and should be evaluated alongside exchange netflows, derivatives positioning and broader market liquidity.
Written by Amr Taha

ERC-20 stablecoin liquidity shows a modest improvement in exchange inflows, but the broader balance-sheet signal remains restrictive.
Exchange net flow has turned slightly positive at approximately $62.8 million. This indicates that stablecoins are entering trading venues on a net basis, creating some immediately deployable liquidity. The move is constructive, but it remains small relative to the multi-billion-dollar inflow episodes recorded earlier in the period.
Minted and redeemed supply both stand near $1.5 billion at the latest reading. Gross issuance therefore does not show a clear expansion in net stablecoin supply. Minting activity has also moderated significantly from the large spikes seen in the first half of 2025.
The more important signal comes from exchange reserves. ERC-20 stablecoin balances have fallen to roughly $61.8 billion, well below the late-2025 peak above $75 billion and beneath the declining 100-day moving average. This suggests that the pool of stablecoin capital available on exchanges continues to contract despite the latest positive net flow.
The combined picture does not support a strong liquidity-expansion thesis. Stablecoin purchasing power may be stabilising at the margin, but it has not returned at sufficient scale to provide a durable tailwind for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
The near-term price implication is neutral to mildly constructive. Crypto prices could benefit if positive netflows persist, but a stronger upside signal would require exchange reserves to stabilise and minted supply to consistently exceed redemptions. Continued reserve contraction would leave rallies more dependent on leverage and external capital flows
Written by Novaque Research