CryptoPulse001
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Right now, RANOK is a game of patience
In a bear market, the key is not to rush. Unlike in a bull market, where reversals happen quickly, bear phases drag on for months and do not end suddenly.
If you look at the bigger picture, rather than daily fluctuations, the picture remains weak. Despite some positive days for ETFs, the cumulative net flow over the last 10 trading days remains negative (about –18 000 $BTC ). This means there is currently no sustainable demand.
A reversal does not start with one strong day, but with a systematic return of capital to the market. Until this happens, upward movements look more like noise within the bear mode.
BTC has been in its current drawdown for over four months, having lost more than 50% from the October peak. By BTC standards, this is not unique. But when a drawdown exceeds 100 days, history shows that recovery usually takes months, sometimes even years — but not weeks.
A similar dynamic is observed in the Nasdaq 100. This is important for BTC because it does not exist in isolation — it is part of risk assets and correlates with stocks. It is difficult to build sustainable growth in a risk asset when the entire risk complex is still adapting. $ETH $BNB
In a bear market, the key is not to rush. Unlike in a bull market, where reversals happen quickly, bear phases drag on for months and do not end suddenly.
If you look at the bigger picture, rather than daily fluctuations, the picture remains weak. Despite some positive days for ETFs, the cumulative net flow over the last 10 trading days remains negative (about –18 000 $BTC ). This means there is currently no sustainable demand.
A reversal does not start with one strong day, but with a systematic return of capital to the market. Until this happens, upward movements look more like noise within the bear mode.
BTC has been in its current drawdown for over four months, having lost more than 50% from the October peak. By BTC standards, this is not unique. But when a drawdown exceeds 100 days, history shows that recovery usually takes months, sometimes even years — but not weeks.
A similar dynamic is observed in the Nasdaq 100. This is important for BTC because it does not exist in isolation — it is part of risk assets and correlates with stocks. It is difficult to build sustainable growth in a risk asset when the entire risk complex is still adapting. $ETH $BNB
$BTC If the bear market drags on, looking at past cycles, we can expect a formation like this with a bottom in the fall
Market reversal?
Last night, $BTC went below 96.5k for the first time since November, breaking out of the range where we've been trading for over a month.
Essentially, we're seeing exactly what we've discussed multiple times as the base scenario: removal of liquidity clusters above 96k prior to a potential strong downward move.
What are our short-term options?
Ideally, we'd like to see $BTC close above 95k — this would confirm a local uptrend and give the market room to 'breathe': shake out alts, memes, and embrace new narratives.
In such a case, the next target would be the second major liquidity cluster in the 98–100k range, though a move into this zone currently seems unlikely.
If the price fails to hold above 95k, then a pullback to 87–88k is highly probable within the next 1–2 weeks.
The market is currently green, and alts have slightly increased. For those holding positions or long-term token holders, this is a good opportunity to partially take profits at higher prices. Altseason is clearly not imminent, but during this 'green phase,' local opportunities will emerge that must be acted upon promptly and not missed. So get involved and keep your finger on the pulse.
Last night, $BTC went below 96.5k for the first time since November, breaking out of the range where we've been trading for over a month.
Essentially, we're seeing exactly what we've discussed multiple times as the base scenario: removal of liquidity clusters above 96k prior to a potential strong downward move.
What are our short-term options?
Ideally, we'd like to see $BTC close above 95k — this would confirm a local uptrend and give the market room to 'breathe': shake out alts, memes, and embrace new narratives.
In such a case, the next target would be the second major liquidity cluster in the 98–100k range, though a move into this zone currently seems unlikely.
If the price fails to hold above 95k, then a pullback to 87–88k is highly probable within the next 1–2 weeks.
The market is currently green, and alts have slightly increased. For those holding positions or long-term token holders, this is a good opportunity to partially take profits at higher prices. Altseason is clearly not imminent, but during this 'green phase,' local opportunities will emerge that must be acted upon promptly and not missed. So get involved and keep your finger on the pulse.
Narratives in the crypt for 2025
The table above shows how narratives changed throughout the past year. Notably, no stable 'meta' emerged that lasted more than a month — almost every month the market shifted to a new narrative.
Perhaps this is one of the market's issues: narratives quickly arose and just as quickly faded, failing to fully realize their potential.
Generally, markets need stability — even if there are fewer narratives, they should last longer. $ETH $BTC $XRP
The table above shows how narratives changed throughout the past year. Notably, no stable 'meta' emerged that lasted more than a month — almost every month the market shifted to a new narrative.
Perhaps this is one of the market's issues: narratives quickly arose and just as quickly faded, failing to fully realize their potential.
Generally, markets need stability — even if there are fewer narratives, they should last longer. $ETH $BTC $XRP
Already today at 5:00 PM Kyiv time, the US Supreme Court will issue a decision on repealing Trump's tariffs.
Currently, the market estimates the probability of their repeal at 32%.
It is still unclear what decision can be considered positive for the crypto market, but in any case, be prepared for significant movements in both directions. $BTC $ETH
Currently, the market estimates the probability of their repeal at 32%.
It is still unclear what decision can be considered positive for the crypto market, but in any case, be prepared for significant movements in both directions. $BTC $ETH
Who earns the most in crypto as a business?
Everyone is used to evaluating crypto by market cap, but if you look at the actual revenue that projects generate, the picture changes completely:
⚪️$SOL — the main revenue generator in the industry. Priority fees, MEV, perps, NFT, tokens, Firedancer, mobile — provides 35–45% of real revenue, having only 5–7% of the total market capitalization.
⚪️$ETH (+ L2) still produces a huge economic effect, but after L2 compression its dominance in fees is no longer the same: 25–35% of revenue with 15–20% mCap.
⚪️$BTC occupies 50%+ of the market by capitalization, but only provides 2–5% of revenues — logically: it is a monetary asset, not a business. But this clearly shows how misleading market cap comparisons can be.
⚪️All others (AVAX, BNB, Tron, Cosmos, meme coins, DeFi) share only 15–25% of the revenue.
If we look at the economy, the hierarchy is currently as follows:
Solana > Ethereum > Others > Bitcoin.
#btc
Everyone is used to evaluating crypto by market cap, but if you look at the actual revenue that projects generate, the picture changes completely:
⚪️$SOL — the main revenue generator in the industry. Priority fees, MEV, perps, NFT, tokens, Firedancer, mobile — provides 35–45% of real revenue, having only 5–7% of the total market capitalization.
⚪️$ETH (+ L2) still produces a huge economic effect, but after L2 compression its dominance in fees is no longer the same: 25–35% of revenue with 15–20% mCap.
⚪️$BTC occupies 50%+ of the market by capitalization, but only provides 2–5% of revenues — logically: it is a monetary asset, not a business. But this clearly shows how misleading market cap comparisons can be.
⚪️All others (AVAX, BNB, Tron, Cosmos, meme coins, DeFi) share only 15–25% of the revenue.
If we look at the economy, the hierarchy is currently as follows:
Solana > Ethereum > Others > Bitcoin.
#btc
👀While the movement $BTC completely mirrors the pattern of the previous cycle. Will it drop down?
Looking at the sales chart $BTC
by regions, an interesting picture emerges:
Since the beginning of November, all regions — the USA, Europe, and Asia — are selling $BTC more than they are buying, although before that stable purchases were clearly visible.
In the last week, there has been a slight buyback from the USA and Europe (which coincides with the V-shape on Bitcoin), while Asia continues to maintain sales volume.
by regions, an interesting picture emerges:
Since the beginning of November, all regions — the USA, Europe, and Asia — are selling $BTC more than they are buying, although before that stable purchases were clearly visible.
In the last week, there has been a slight buyback from the USA and Europe (which coincides with the V-shape on Bitcoin), while Asia continues to maintain sales volume.
Tom Lee: a third of the market makers have disappeared 😱
"On October 10, the crypto market experienced an 'Armageddon' and recorded the largest wave of liquidations in BTC history: nearly 2 million accounts were wiped out, and a third of the market makers disappeared from the market."
By the way, Tom Lee has already changed his stance and now predicts $100k+ instead of $250k by the end of the year for $BTC . #TomLee
"On October 10, the crypto market experienced an 'Armageddon' and recorded the largest wave of liquidations in BTC history: nearly 2 million accounts were wiped out, and a third of the market makers disappeared from the market."
By the way, Tom Lee has already changed his stance and now predicts $100k+ instead of $250k by the end of the year for $BTC . #TomLee
👀New update $ETH Fusaka will take place on December 3.
In May, ETH saw a good rise after the Pectra update, and on December 3, we will see a reverse movement — a dump? 😭
In May, ETH saw a good rise after the Pectra update, and on December 3, we will see a reverse movement — a dump? 😭
The ratio of long to short positions on Binance has risen to 3.8 — a maximum in more than three years.
The Block metric accounts for the balance of the 20% largest users. Just over a month ago, when $BTC reached an all-time high above $126,000, this ratio was at a multi-year low below 0.6.
The Block metric accounts for the balance of the 20% largest users. Just over a month ago, when $BTC reached an all-time high above $126,000, this ratio was at a multi-year low below 0.6.
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