CryptoChan
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CryptoChan
Square VerifiedBitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不收费，无投资理财建议 || X：@0xCryptoChan
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Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
Big V Tianlong‼️
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The indicators shown measure the proportion of “new funds/hot money” that hold for less than 3 months relative to Bitcoin’s total realized market cap, used to reflect the market’s speculative frenzy and the top/bottom positions of longer cycles.
When this indicator forms a bear-bottom V, it suggests that short-term players have switched from net exiting to net entering, or it may indicate that the bear market has ended and a bull market is starting.
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The indicators shown measure the proportion of “new funds/hot money” that hold for less than 3 months relative to Bitcoin’s total realized market cap, used to reflect the market’s speculative frenzy and the top/bottom positions of longer cycles.
When this indicator forms a bear-bottom V, it suggests that short-term players have switched from net exiting to net entering, or it may indicate that the bear market has ended and a bull market is starting.
CryptoChan
·
--
The indicator in the figure is the percentage of the number of Bitcoins that have been on the chain for less than 3 months after the weighted market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total over-the-counter circulation of Bitcoin.
This wave is stable
This wave is stable
【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Carving Series (43)】
January 26, 2019: This metric rose to 0.856
October 10, 2022: This metric rose to 0.856
Current: This metric rose to 0.856
┌─ On-Chain Data Details ─┐
The gray line at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the red line is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held for 6–12 months; the blue line is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held for 1–2 years. The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the blue line to the red line
January 26, 2019: This metric rose to 0.856
October 10, 2022: This metric rose to 0.856
Current: This metric rose to 0.856
┌─ On-Chain Data Details ─┐
The gray line at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the red line is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held for 6–12 months; the blue line is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held for 1–2 years. The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the blue line to the red line
CryptoChan
·
--
【BTC four-year cycle total engraving series (42-2)】
In the 2015 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 36%
In the 2019 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 39%
In the 2022 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 45%
In this round, at $57.8k, this wave, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 46%
$BTC
In the 2015 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 36%
In the 2019 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 39%
In the 2022 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 45%
In this round, at $57.8k, this wave, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 46%
$BTC
The peak value of this indicator in 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in 2019 by 1385 days
The peak value of this indicator in 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in 2023 by 1380 days
The peak value of this indicator in 2023 has been 1300 days ago
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The indicators at the bottom of the chart show the ratio of “average on-chain long-term holder purchase cost” to “average on-chain short-term holder purchase cost”
Historically, the appearance of peak values for this indicator often signals the end of a bear market and the start of a bull market
The peak value of this indicator in 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in 2023 by 1380 days
The peak value of this indicator in 2023 has been 1300 days ago
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The indicators at the bottom of the chart show the ratio of “average on-chain long-term holder purchase cost” to “average on-chain short-term holder purchase cost”
Historically, the appearance of peak values for this indicator often signals the end of a bear market and the start of a bull market
CryptoChan
·
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
This pullback is solid
Current Bitcoin median purchase cost: $62,748
Current Bitcoin median purchase cost: $62,748
CryptoChan
·
--
①② It’s complete
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart is the Bitcoin price; the orange line is the median cost of buying Bitcoin.
Median cost of buying Bitcoin: within the Bitcoin supply, it is the median price when all tokens were last moved on-chain (i.e., half of the Bitcoins were moved at prices higher than this; half were moved at prices lower than this). Unlike the average, it uses the middle value, which better represents the median buy cost of investors.
①② These two waves of pullbacks over nearly half a year filter out noise and short-term speculators. They indicate that the market, over roughly half a year, has reinforced the cost floor of the median investors across the entire network. Once the coin price confirms support from the second pullback and breaks upward, it usually signals the complete establishment of a bear-market bottom, followed by a long-cycle trend reversal (excluding black swan events 🌚)
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart is the Bitcoin price; the orange line is the median cost of buying Bitcoin.
Median cost of buying Bitcoin: within the Bitcoin supply, it is the median price when all tokens were last moved on-chain (i.e., half of the Bitcoins were moved at prices higher than this; half were moved at prices lower than this). Unlike the average, it uses the middle value, which better represents the median buy cost of investors.
①② These two waves of pullbacks over nearly half a year filter out noise and short-term speculators. They indicate that the market, over roughly half a year, has reinforced the cost floor of the median investors across the entire network. Once the coin price confirms support from the second pullback and breaks upward, it usually signals the complete establishment of a bear-market bottom, followed by a long-cycle trend reversal (excluding black swan events 🌚)
The Death Cross Continues to Close Steadily
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
The orange line indicator at the bottom of the chart is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin realized profits; the blue line indicator is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin realized losses.
Bitcoin realized profits: Among the Bitcoin spent (transferred) on-chain each day, the portion sold at a price higher than its previous moving (acquisition) price; the total accumulated profit amount (usually denominated in USD).
Bitcoin realized losses: The portion sold at a price lower than its previous moving price; the total accumulated loss amount.
These two are classic on-chain indicators, reflecting the actual scale of locked-in gains and losses by investors and overall market sentiment.
A downward cross of the 365-day MA of realized profits below the 365-day MA of realized losses (a death cross) means that, over the past year, the average realized losses have exceeded profits, and the market has entered a phase of deep capitulation/selling in panic. Historically, this death cross has appeared without exception near the bottom of bear markets—an ultra-high-probability cyclical bottom signal.
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
The orange line indicator at the bottom of the chart is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin realized profits; the blue line indicator is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin realized losses.
Bitcoin realized profits: Among the Bitcoin spent (transferred) on-chain each day, the portion sold at a price higher than its previous moving (acquisition) price; the total accumulated profit amount (usually denominated in USD).
Bitcoin realized losses: The portion sold at a price lower than its previous moving price; the total accumulated loss amount.
These two are classic on-chain indicators, reflecting the actual scale of locked-in gains and losses by investors and overall market sentiment.
A downward cross of the 365-day MA of realized profits below the 365-day MA of realized losses (a death cross) means that, over the past year, the average realized losses have exceeded profits, and the market has entered a phase of deep capitulation/selling in panic. Historically, this death cross has appeared without exception near the bottom of bear markets—an ultra-high-probability cyclical bottom signal.
📌 2014: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 124 days to reach the bear-market bottom
📌 2018: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 188 days to reach the bear-market bottom
📌 2022: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 193 days to reach the bear-market bottom
📌 2026: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 146 days to reach $57.8k
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The green line in the chart is the LTH Spent Price (Long-Term Holder Spent Price). It is the average purchase cost of $BTC sold by long-term holders (holding period ≥ 155 days) on that day. It reflects the weighted average buy cost of the batch of coins that were spent (sold).
When the coin price breaks below the LTH Spent Price and stays there for more than 100 days until the bear-market bottom, it indicates that long-term holders have entered a prolonged loss-cutting/forced selling phase. This suggests the market has entered a deep capitulation period, where even strong hands are being flushed out—historically, this is a typical signal seen near the end of bear markets and when a cycle bottom is approaching.
📌 2018: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 188 days to reach the bear-market bottom
📌 2022: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 193 days to reach the bear-market bottom
📌 2026: After the coin price broke below the green line, it took 146 days to reach $57.8k
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The green line in the chart is the LTH Spent Price (Long-Term Holder Spent Price). It is the average purchase cost of $BTC sold by long-term holders (holding period ≥ 155 days) on that day. It reflects the weighted average buy cost of the batch of coins that were spent (sold).
When the coin price breaks below the LTH Spent Price and stays there for more than 100 days until the bear-market bottom, it indicates that long-term holders have entered a prolonged loss-cutting/forced selling phase. This suggests the market has entered a deep capitulation period, where even strong hands are being flushed out—historically, this is a typical signal seen near the end of bear markets and when a cycle bottom is approaching.
CryptoChan
·
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (27)】
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated 124 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated 166 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated 191 days to the bear bottom
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated about 52 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents the price of Bitcoin
The green line in the chart represents the spent price of long-term Bitcoin holders, which is the average purchase cost of chips sold by long-term holders over a period of time (such as 7 days)
When the gray line is below the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated 124 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated 166 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated 191 days to the bear bottom
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated about 52 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents the price of Bitcoin
The green line in the chart represents the spent price of long-term Bitcoin holders, which is the average purchase cost of chips sold by long-term holders over a period of time (such as 7 days)
When the gray line is below the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater
Right side or already broken through
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The black line in the chart is the total market value of Bitcoin; the blue line is the 365-day moving average of the total market value of long-term on-chain holders’ holdings
$BTC
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The black line in the chart is the total market value of Bitcoin; the blue line is the 365-day moving average of the total market value of long-term on-chain holders’ holdings
$BTC
①② It’s complete
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart is the Bitcoin price; the orange line is the median cost of buying Bitcoin.
Median cost of buying Bitcoin: within the Bitcoin supply, it is the median price when all tokens were last moved on-chain (i.e., half of the Bitcoins were moved at prices higher than this; half were moved at prices lower than this). Unlike the average, it uses the middle value, which better represents the median buy cost of investors.
①② These two waves of pullbacks over nearly half a year filter out noise and short-term speculators. They indicate that the market, over roughly half a year, has reinforced the cost floor of the median investors across the entire network. Once the coin price confirms support from the second pullback and breaks upward, it usually signals the complete establishment of a bear-market bottom, followed by a long-cycle trend reversal (excluding black swan events 🌚)
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart is the Bitcoin price; the orange line is the median cost of buying Bitcoin.
Median cost of buying Bitcoin: within the Bitcoin supply, it is the median price when all tokens were last moved on-chain (i.e., half of the Bitcoins were moved at prices higher than this; half were moved at prices lower than this). Unlike the average, it uses the middle value, which better represents the median buy cost of investors.
①② These two waves of pullbacks over nearly half a year filter out noise and short-term speculators. They indicate that the market, over roughly half a year, has reinforced the cost floor of the median investors across the entire network. Once the coin price confirms support from the second pullback and breaks upward, it usually signals the complete establishment of a bear-market bottom, followed by a long-cycle trend reversal (excluding black swan events 🌚)
CryptoChan
·
--
Continuing from 4 years ago: the second bottoming out
📌 2014: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 101 days, it reached the bottom of the bear market
📌 2018: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 130 days, it reached the bottom of the bear market
📌 2022: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 195 days, it reached the bottom of the bear market
📌 2026: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 130 days, it reached $57.8k
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
In the chart, the orange line is the Balanced Price; the purple line is the LTH Realized Price
When the Balanced Price falls below the LTH Realized Price, it means:
● LTH Realized Price is the average buy cost of long-term holders (holding for over 155 days), and it is an important support level
● Balanced Price is an on-chain metric used specifically to predict the bottom of a bear market (derived by subtracting the transfer price from the network realized price)
● Their crossover (Balanced falling below LTH) indicates: the model-calculated potential bear-market low has dropped below the cost line of long-term holders
Implication: The market may face a more thorough clearing, but at the same time it has entered the historical bear-market bottom area—often a window for value accumulation
📌 2018: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 130 days, it reached the bottom of the bear market
📌 2022: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 195 days, it reached the bottom of the bear market
📌 2026: After the orange line fell below the purple line for 130 days, it reached $57.8k
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
In the chart, the orange line is the Balanced Price; the purple line is the LTH Realized Price
When the Balanced Price falls below the LTH Realized Price, it means:
● LTH Realized Price is the average buy cost of long-term holders (holding for over 155 days), and it is an important support level
● Balanced Price is an on-chain metric used specifically to predict the bottom of a bear market (derived by subtracting the transfer price from the network realized price)
● Their crossover (Balanced falling below LTH) indicates: the model-calculated potential bear-market low has dropped below the cost line of long-term holders
Implication: The market may face a more thorough clearing, but at the same time it has entered the historical bear-market bottom area—often a window for value accumulation
CryptoChan
·
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (28)】
101 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2014
130 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2018
183 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2022
40 days have passed since the orange line crossed the purple line in 2026
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
In the chart, the black line represents the BTC price; the orange line represents the Bitcoin Balanced Price; the purple line represents the average cost of Bitcoin for long-term holders
Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price
In simple terms, this indicator measures the "actual cost paid by the market (Realized) minus the value actually spent/transferred historically (Transferred)"; it essentially tries to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation".
101 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2014
130 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2018
183 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2022
40 days have passed since the orange line crossed the purple line in 2026
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
In the chart, the black line represents the BTC price; the orange line represents the Bitcoin Balanced Price; the purple line represents the average cost of Bitcoin for long-term holders
Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price
In simple terms, this indicator measures the "actual cost paid by the market (Realized) minus the value actually spent/transferred historically (Transferred)"; it essentially tries to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation".
【BTC four-year cycle total engraving series (42-2)】
In the 2015 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 36%
In the 2019 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 39%
In the 2022 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 45%
In this round, at $57.8k, this wave, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 46%
$BTC
In the 2015 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 36%
In the 2019 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 39%
In the 2022 bear market bottom, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 45%
In this round, at $57.8k, this wave, the share of on-chain profitable chips with unrealized gains was lowest at 46%
$BTC
CryptoChan
·
--
【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Etching Series (42-1)】
🔵 In Jun 2022, the coin price fell to $17.6k, with BTC in profit accounting for 49.5%
🔵 In Feb 2026, the coin price fell to $60.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 50.3%
🔴 In Nov 2022, the coin price fell to $15.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 45.2%
🔴 In Jun 2026, the coin price fell to $57.8k, with BTC in profit accounting for 46.0%
Worth noting:
📌 The span between the two lows in 2022 is 144 days
📌 The span between the two lows in 2026 is 145 days
🔵 In Jun 2022, the coin price fell to $17.6k, with BTC in profit accounting for 49.5%
🔵 In Feb 2026, the coin price fell to $60.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 50.3%
🔴 In Nov 2022, the coin price fell to $15.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 45.2%
🔴 In Jun 2026, the coin price fell to $57.8k, with BTC in profit accounting for 46.0%
Worth noting:
📌 The span between the two lows in 2022 is 144 days
📌 The span between the two lows in 2026 is 145 days
V is rising
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The metric shown measures the ratio of “new funds/speculative hot money” held for less than 3 months to Bitcoin’s total realized market cap across the entire network. It is used to reflect the market’s level of speculative frenzy and the top/bottom positioning over larger market cycles.
When this indicator is at the bear-bottom V, it suggests that short-term players have shifted from net exiting to net entering, or that the bear market is ending and a bull market is beginning.
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
The metric shown measures the ratio of “new funds/speculative hot money” held for less than 3 months to Bitcoin’s total realized market cap across the entire network. It is used to reflect the market’s level of speculative frenzy and the top/bottom positioning over larger market cycles.
When this indicator is at the bear-bottom V, it suggests that short-term players have shifted from net exiting to net entering, or that the bear market is ending and a bull market is beginning.
CryptoChan
·
--
The indicator in the figure is the percentage of the number of Bitcoins that have been on the chain for less than 3 months after the weighted market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total over-the-counter circulation of Bitcoin.
This wave is stable
This wave is stable
【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Etching Series (42-1)】
🔵 In Jun 2022, the coin price fell to $17.6k, with BTC in profit accounting for 49.5%
🔵 In Feb 2026, the coin price fell to $60.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 50.3%
🔴 In Nov 2022, the coin price fell to $15.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 45.2%
🔴 In Jun 2026, the coin price fell to $57.8k, with BTC in profit accounting for 46.0%
Worth noting:
📌 The span between the two lows in 2022 is 144 days
📌 The span between the two lows in 2026 is 145 days
🔵 In Jun 2022, the coin price fell to $17.6k, with BTC in profit accounting for 49.5%
🔵 In Feb 2026, the coin price fell to $60.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 50.3%
🔴 In Nov 2022, the coin price fell to $15.5k, with BTC in profit accounting for 45.2%
🔴 In Jun 2026, the coin price fell to $57.8k, with BTC in profit accounting for 46.0%
Worth noting:
📌 The span between the two lows in 2022 is 144 days
📌 The span between the two lows in 2026 is 145 days
CryptoChan
·
--
【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Etched Series (41)】
In history, once “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 6–12 months” is lower than “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 12–18 months,” it often means the true bear-market bottom has already appeared
Currently, it is already smaller than
In history, once “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 6–12 months” is lower than “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 12–18 months,” it often means the true bear-market bottom has already appeared
Currently, it is already smaller than
【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Etched Series (41)】
In history, once “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 6–12 months” is lower than “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 12–18 months,” it often means the true bear-market bottom has already appeared
Currently, it is already smaller than
In history, once “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 6–12 months” is lower than “the average acquisition cost of chips held for 12–18 months,” it often means the true bear-market bottom has already appeared
Currently, it is already smaller than
CryptoChan
·
--
【 $BTC Four-year cycle total market-bottom series (40) 】
The classic “three-stage bottoming” is concluding as expected 🧘♂️
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
📊 Bitcoin STH-MVRV is perfectly replaying the bottoming fractal structure from 2021–2022
Observe the red line in the chart. After Bitcoin’s STH-MVRV breaks below 1.0 (the short-term investor breakeven line), it doesn’t immediately reverse; instead, it forms a classic “three-stage bottoming” structure:
1️⃣ First breakdown: A wave of panic selling emerges, dropping below 1.0
2️⃣ Deep washout: After a rebound to 1.0 meets resistance, the largest-magnitude second dip occurs (the deepest spike/bottom in the chart)
3️⃣ Convergence confirmation: We are currently in the late stage of the third bottom of this “round”—the lows begin to rise, forming a local-convergence W-bottom variant
History won’t repeat itself exactly, but it often follows similar rhythms. The previous two deep declines have already completed the cleansing of shaky holdings. Once the indicator turns bullish, breaks through, and holds above 1.0, it means short-term capital has fully shaken off losses—then the trend will enter a true right-side reversal.
💡 Want to catch such on-chain anomalies as they happen? Unlock my X (formerly Twitter) platform exclusive subscription service to receive the complete 【Bear Market Bottoming Signal】 and 【Bull Market Top-Escape Warning】, so you can seize the crucial turning points of every cycle 👇
https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/creator-subscriptions/subscribe
The classic “three-stage bottoming” is concluding as expected 🧘♂️
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
📊 Bitcoin STH-MVRV is perfectly replaying the bottoming fractal structure from 2021–2022
Observe the red line in the chart. After Bitcoin’s STH-MVRV breaks below 1.0 (the short-term investor breakeven line), it doesn’t immediately reverse; instead, it forms a classic “three-stage bottoming” structure:
1️⃣ First breakdown: A wave of panic selling emerges, dropping below 1.0
2️⃣ Deep washout: After a rebound to 1.0 meets resistance, the largest-magnitude second dip occurs (the deepest spike/bottom in the chart)
3️⃣ Convergence confirmation: We are currently in the late stage of the third bottom of this “round”—the lows begin to rise, forming a local-convergence W-bottom variant
History won’t repeat itself exactly, but it often follows similar rhythms. The previous two deep declines have already completed the cleansing of shaky holdings. Once the indicator turns bullish, breaks through, and holds above 1.0, it means short-term capital has fully shaken off losses—then the trend will enter a true right-side reversal.
💡 Want to catch such on-chain anomalies as they happen? Unlock my X (formerly Twitter) platform exclusive subscription service to receive the complete 【Bear Market Bottoming Signal】 and 【Bull Market Top-Escape Warning】, so you can seize the crucial turning points of every cycle 👇
https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/creator-subscriptions/subscribe
It's just $39 away from dropping below the threshold
CryptoChan
·
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Historically, the black line has broken below the blue line at the bear bottom range.
Currently, we're $1,046 away from the black line breaking below the blue line.
┌ Indicator Details ┐
Black Line: Average buy-in cost of short-term investors holding for <155 days.
Blue Line: Average buy-in cost of all investors holding for 0 - 7 years.
When the black line dips below the blue line, it signals that all investors start facing unrealized losses. At this point, the selling pressure across the network and the overall sentiment may reach a breaking point, often indicating a bear market bottom.
Currently, we're $1,046 away from the black line breaking below the blue line.
┌ Indicator Details ┐
Black Line: Average buy-in cost of short-term investors holding for <155 days.
Blue Line: Average buy-in cost of all investors holding for 0 - 7 years.
When the black line dips below the blue line, it signals that all investors start facing unrealized losses. At this point, the selling pressure across the network and the overall sentiment may reach a breaking point, often indicating a bear market bottom.
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2015 differs from the peak value in 2019 by 1385 days
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2019 differs from the peak value in 2023 by 1380 days
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2023 has been 1280 days from today
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “the average buying cost of long-term on-chain coin holders” to “the average buying cost of short-term on-chain coin holders.” In the past, the peak values of this indicator have always corresponded to the Bitcoin bull-bear turning points
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2019 differs from the peak value in 2023 by 1380 days
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2023 has been 1280 days from today
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “the average buying cost of long-term on-chain coin holders” to “the average buying cost of short-term on-chain coin holders.” In the past, the peak values of this indicator have always corresponded to the Bitcoin bull-bear turning points
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
📌 2015: After the black line broke below the blue line, 48 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2019: After the black line broke below the blue line, 32 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2022: After the black line broke below the blue line, 26 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2026: After the black line broke below the blue line, 32 days to $57.8k
⚫️ The black line is the average buy-in cost of on-chain holders who invest for 3–6 months
🔵 The blue line is the average buy-in cost of on-chain holders who invest for 1–2 years
📌 2019: After the black line broke below the blue line, 32 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2022: After the black line broke below the blue line, 26 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2026: After the black line broke below the blue line, 32 days to $57.8k
⚫️ The black line is the average buy-in cost of on-chain holders who invest for 3–6 months
🔵 The blue line is the average buy-in cost of on-chain holders who invest for 1–2 years
CryptoChan
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Bitcoin's 【Triple Bottom】 derivative indicator, used to capture the price lows during a bear market double dip
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【BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Mark Series (36-2)】
📌 2015: The black line broke below the blue line, hitting the bear market double dip price low in 48 days
📌 2019: The black line broke below the blue line, hitting the bear market double dip price low in 32 days
📌 2022: The black line broke below the blue line, hitting the bear market double dip price low in 26 days
⏳ Currently, the black line is still 578 bucks away from breaking below the blue line
┌── 🐼 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
⚫️ The black line represents the average buy cost of on-chain investors holding for 3-6 months
🔵 The blue line represents the average buy cost of on-chain investors holding for 1-2 years
────────────────────────
【BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Mark Series (36-2)】
📌 2015: The black line broke below the blue line, hitting the bear market double dip price low in 48 days
📌 2019: The black line broke below the blue line, hitting the bear market double dip price low in 32 days
📌 2022: The black line broke below the blue line, hitting the bear market double dip price low in 26 days
⏳ Currently, the black line is still 578 bucks away from breaking below the blue line
┌── 🐼 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
⚫️ The black line represents the average buy cost of on-chain investors holding for 3-6 months
🔵 The blue line represents the average buy cost of on-chain investors holding for 1-2 years
【 $BTC Four-year cycle total market-bottom series (40) 】
The classic “three-stage bottoming” is concluding as expected 🧘♂️
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
📊 Bitcoin STH-MVRV is perfectly replaying the bottoming fractal structure from 2021–2022
Observe the red line in the chart. After Bitcoin’s STH-MVRV breaks below 1.0 (the short-term investor breakeven line), it doesn’t immediately reverse; instead, it forms a classic “three-stage bottoming” structure:
1️⃣ First breakdown: A wave of panic selling emerges, dropping below 1.0
2️⃣ Deep washout: After a rebound to 1.0 meets resistance, the largest-magnitude second dip occurs (the deepest spike/bottom in the chart)
3️⃣ Convergence confirmation: We are currently in the late stage of the third bottom of this “round”—the lows begin to rise, forming a local-convergence W-bottom variant
History won’t repeat itself exactly, but it often follows similar rhythms. The previous two deep declines have already completed the cleansing of shaky holdings. Once the indicator turns bullish, breaks through, and holds above 1.0, it means short-term capital has fully shaken off losses—then the trend will enter a true right-side reversal.
💡 Want to catch such on-chain anomalies as they happen? Unlock my X (formerly Twitter) platform exclusive subscription service to receive the complete 【Bear Market Bottoming Signal】 and 【Bull Market Top-Escape Warning】, so you can seize the crucial turning points of every cycle 👇
https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/creator-subscriptions/subscribe
The classic “three-stage bottoming” is concluding as expected 🧘♂️
┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐
📊 Bitcoin STH-MVRV is perfectly replaying the bottoming fractal structure from 2021–2022
Observe the red line in the chart. After Bitcoin’s STH-MVRV breaks below 1.0 (the short-term investor breakeven line), it doesn’t immediately reverse; instead, it forms a classic “three-stage bottoming” structure:
1️⃣ First breakdown: A wave of panic selling emerges, dropping below 1.0
2️⃣ Deep washout: After a rebound to 1.0 meets resistance, the largest-magnitude second dip occurs (the deepest spike/bottom in the chart)
3️⃣ Convergence confirmation: We are currently in the late stage of the third bottom of this “round”—the lows begin to rise, forming a local-convergence W-bottom variant
History won’t repeat itself exactly, but it often follows similar rhythms. The previous two deep declines have already completed the cleansing of shaky holdings. Once the indicator turns bullish, breaks through, and holds above 1.0, it means short-term capital has fully shaken off losses—then the trend will enter a true right-side reversal.
💡 Want to catch such on-chain anomalies as they happen? Unlock my X (formerly Twitter) platform exclusive subscription service to receive the complete 【Bear Market Bottoming Signal】 and 【Bull Market Top-Escape Warning】, so you can seize the crucial turning points of every cycle 👇
https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/creator-subscriptions/subscribe
CryptoChan
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series (39)】
513 days before the 2020 halving is the bear bottom
516 days before the 2024 halving is the bear bottom
542 days before the 2016 halving is the bear bottom
There are 641 days left before the 2028 halving
513 days before the 2020 halving is the bear bottom
516 days before the 2024 halving is the bear bottom
542 days before the 2016 halving is the bear bottom
There are 641 days left before the 2028 halving
【$BTC four-year cycle series update】
With $58k, this wave: Bitcoin on-chain long-term holders are currently showing the highest unrealized-loss chip value share, hitting 34.5%. Historically, it is only second to the last drop in 2015.
With $58k, this wave: Bitcoin on-chain long-term holders are currently showing the highest unrealized-loss chip value share, hitting 34.5%. Historically, it is only second to the last drop in 2015.
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (20)】
In 2015, the indicator value was 27.3%
In 2018, the indicator value was 27.5%
In 2022, the indicator value was 27.4%
Currently, the indicator value is 26.9%
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the market value of long-term holders' coins that are currently in loss as a percentage of the total BTC market value
(Note: Bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years on-chain are considered long-term dormant or lost and are excluded from the calculation)
In 2015, the indicator value was 27.3%
In 2018, the indicator value was 27.5%
In 2022, the indicator value was 27.4%
Currently, the indicator value is 26.9%
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the market value of long-term holders' coins that are currently in loss as a percentage of the total BTC market value
(Note: Bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years on-chain are considered long-term dormant or lost and are excluded from the calculation)
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