CryptoChan

The indicator in the figure is the percentage of the number of Bitcoins that have been on the chain for less than 3 months after the weighted market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total over-the-counter circulation of Bitcoin.

This wave is stable

The Liquidity Breakthrough for Native BTC: How Trustless Collateral Reshapes DeFi Credit Markets?

In long-term BTC cycle tracking and spot-leveraged strategy building, the absolute safety of underlying collateral is always the first principle. Bitcoin has the largest liquidity across the entire network, but the pain point of traditional BTCFi is this: in pursuit of capital efficiency, BTC holders are often forced to wrap BTC (such as WBTC) or move it via cross-chain bridges. These added third-party trust assumptions and centralized custody risks directly contradict our original intent of holding the “big pie.”

Recent breakthroughs in underlying infrastructure are changing this reality. Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) provides a new path that fits the crypto-native logic extremely well.

Its core mechanism is “decentralization without trust.” TBV enables the direct use of native BTC as collateral—no wrapping, no cross-chain transfer, and no interference from multi-sig consortiums. Funds always remain on the Bitcoin mainnet. They are locked via Taproot scripts, and the conditions for redemption and liquidation are cryptographically constrained through zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs).

From the perspective of data and capital management, what does this mean?
By seamlessly integrating with protocols such as Aave v4, you can directly borrow stablecoins using the highest-quality underlying asset (native BTC) to execute long-term DCA or liquidity management strategies—while maintaining 100% end-to-end self-custody. This eliminates the single point of failure risk of cross-chain bridges. As a result, native BTC not only preserves the safety of “digital gold,” but also truly gains programmable, high-grade credit-collateral attributes.

The evolution of infrastructure is unlocking the liquidity safety of trillions in dormant capital. Embracing trustlessness is the long-term endgame for the BTC ecosystem.

#baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io

【 $BTC Panda bottom right-side series 01】

Currently, the “Four Great Ming Right” has already surpassed two of them

┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐

Green line: The average purchase cost of the chips held on-chain for durations of 3–6 months
Blue line: The average purchase cost of the chips held on-chain for durations of 1–3 months
Black line: Coin price 200-day moving average
Red line: The average purchase cost of chips held by short-term holders on-chain

Cow's coming!!️【$BTC four-year cycle total engraving series 49】

March 2012: Blue-Orange crossover
July 2015: Blue-Orange crossover
April 2019: Blue-Orange crossover
January 2023: Blue-Orange crossover
Current: Blue and Orange have crossed

┌─ 🐼 On-chain data details ─┐

The blue line is the ratio of “average purchase cost of long-term on-chain holders” to “average purchase cost of short-term on-chain holders”; the orange line is the blue line’s 60-day MA.

Historically, Blue-Orange crossovers often correspond to the end of a bear market and the start of a bull market

Everything is ready; all that’s left is X5😏

【$BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (48)】

In 2022, Bear Comes, Branch ①: light green line goes below the dark green line
In 2022, Bear Comes, Branch ②: light green line goes below the orange-yellow line
In 2022, Bear Comes, Branch ③: light green line goes below the blue-violet line
In 2022, Bear Comes, Branch ④: dark green line goes below the orange-yellow line
In 2022, Bear Comes, Branch ⑤: dark green line goes below the blue-violet line

In 2026, Bear Comes, Branch ①: light green line goes below the dark green line (achieved)
In 2026, Bear Comes, Branch ②: light green line goes below the orange-yellow line (achieved)
In 2026, Bear Comes, Branch ③: light green line goes below the blue-violet line (achieved)
In 2026, Bear Comes, Branch ④: dark green line goes below the orange-yellow line (achieved)
In 2026, Bear Comes, Branch ⑤: not yet achieved

┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐

Gray-white line: Bitcoin price
Light green line: average buy-in cost of on-chain holdings when holding duration is between 3–6 months (current $73,577)
Dark green line: average buy-in cost of on-chain holdings when holding duration is between 6–12 months (current $95,129)
Orange-yellow line: average buy-in cost of on-chain holdings when holding duration is between 12–18 months (current $104,382)
Blue-violet line: average buy-in cost of on-chain holdings when holding duration is between 18–24 months (current $85,994)

It’s about time, huh 🧔🏻‍♂️

🗡️Dec 2022 🐶

【BTC four-year cycle total realized series (46-2)】

Long-term holders are now getting cut deep using the exchange “deep loss” indicator—here we go 🫴

At the bottom of this bear cycle, the indicator is still steadily “underwater” 😏

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the realized profit-to-loss ratio of LTHs (long-term holders) sent to exchanges.

Indicator logic: Strip away the original costs of long-term holders (over 155 days). Then only compare the amount of “pure profit” and the amount of “pure loss” from the exchange inflow.

🔴 Bull market top-escape warning: When the ratio shows an exponential surge, it means that almost everything that experienced traders transfer into exchanges is “pure profit.” Large-scale selling driven by huge unrealized gains is a typical top-distribution characteristic.

🟢 Bear market bottom-building signal: When the ratio falls below 1.0 and shrinks dramatically toward 0, it means “pure loss” overwhelmingly dominates. This indicates that even die-hard fans who have endured a long cycle can’t withstand the drawdown and are forced to cut losses deeply on exchanges. Such thorough panic and surrender often suggest that a solid macro bottom has already been formed.

Note: In this article, any ratio <1.0 is referred to as “underwater.”

【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Coinage Series (46)】

In this bear market cycle, this metric is still, as scheduled, underwater 🧘

┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart is for BTC: Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (Entity-adjusted Bitcoin long-term holder realized profit/loss ratio)

It calculates the ratio of total realized profit (USD) to total realized loss for long-term holders (LTHs, entities holding about >155 days) in real economic transactions

○ Ratio > 1.0 (Profit-dominant): Long-term capital sells mostly while in profit. The higher the value, the more exuberant the bull market is, and the long-term holdings are being distributed to retail at high prices
○ Ratio < 1.0 (Loss-dominant): Even long-term holders are cutting losses and exiting. When the value is extremely low, it usually corresponds to the end of a bear market—deep panic liquidation flushing out and the cycle bottom
○ Crossing 1.0 (Pivot of Long vs. Short): When the ratio breaks above or falls below 1.0, it is a key signal for assessing macro shifts between bull and bear markets and turns in market sentiment

Note: In this article, a ratio < 1.0 is referred to as “underwater”

The core of those BTC bear-bottom indicators that have perfectly triggered in the past: the price drops enough and hard enough—hard enough that long-term holders (LTH) capitulate and mass-sell to complete the final leg of the decline

But if, in a given bear market cycle, the price never breaks below the LTH cost line and no large-scale LTH capitulation event occurs, then it’s also possible to go through the bear market without triggering the relevant indicators

Q: Do you think that “a given bear market cycle” will be this one? 🤭

【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Dip Series (45)】

In this round, as the bear bottoms out, the coin price, as usual, 美美 hits the lower band 😎

┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐

The lower band (blue line) shown in the chart is the average cost basis line for Bitcoin short-term holders, corresponding to negative two standard deviations

【 $BTC Four-year cycle total cut series (44)】

SLRV finally bottomed out—pretty much, anyway.

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

SLRV is short for Bitcoin Short to Long-Term Realized Value Ratio.

It measures the ratio of the short-term Bitcoin circulation speed relative to that of long-to-mid-term holders.

The formula’s essence is:
SLRV = (24-hour realized HODL wave) ÷ (realized HODL wave over 6 months–1 year)

Bull market top zone: When SLRV surges to a historical high, it means that short-term active capital is severely overheated compared with long-term capital that has been sitting. This often corresponds to the mid-to-late phase of a bull market or the distribution stage near the top.

Bear market bottom zone: When SLRV falls to a historically extremely low range, it indicates that retail investors have basically exited and speculative sentiment is frozen. Historically, this often corresponds to the late stage of a bear market—the accumulation phase of chips.

In this round of the bear bottom, the indicator reached a peak of 84.2%

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

BTC: Realized Cap HODL Waves is an on-chain metric. It divides Bitcoin’s Realized Cap (the total market value calculated using the price at which each coin last moved) into different age bands based on HODL age (holding time), showing how the “true cost” share changes across each age group

The metric at the bottom of the chart refers to BTC: Realized Cap HODL Waves for holdings greater than 3 months, i.e.: the Realized Cap share corresponding to all Bitcoins that have not moved for at least 3 months

An increase in this ratio → long-term holders (diamond hands) are accumulating or continuing to “lie flat,” reducing market sell pressure, which is often seen as a signal of accumulation/confidence strengthening

A decrease in this ratio → more mid-to-long-term holders start moving or selling, which may indicate profit-taking or panic selling

It is one of the commonly used indicators for assessing whether “smart money/old money” is holding conviction.

【Metric Update】Orange了

$BTC Nearly done with the trip from Qiongdi Green Column 🔫

Big V Tianlong‼️

┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐

The indicators shown measure the proportion of “new funds/hot money” that hold for less than 3 months relative to Bitcoin’s total realized market cap, used to reflect the market’s speculative frenzy and the top/bottom positions of longer cycles.

When this indicator forms a bear-bottom V, it suggests that short-term players have switched from net exiting to net entering, or it may indicate that the bear market has ended and a bull market is starting.

【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Carving Series (43)】

January 26, 2019: This metric rose to 0.856
October 10, 2022: This metric rose to 0.856
Current: This metric rose to 0.856

┌─ On-Chain Data Details ─┐

The gray line at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the red line is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held for 6–12 months; the blue line is the average on-chain cost basis of coins held for 1–2 years. The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the blue line to the red line

The peak value of this indicator in 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in 2019 by 1385 days
The peak value of this indicator in 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in 2023 by 1380 days

The peak value of this indicator in 2023 has been 1300 days ago

┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐

The indicators at the bottom of the chart show the ratio of “average on-chain long-term holder purchase cost” to “average on-chain short-term holder purchase cost”

Historically, the appearance of peak values for this indicator often signals the end of a bear market and the start of a bull market

This pullback is solid

Current Bitcoin median purchase cost: $62,748

The Death Cross Continues to Close Steadily

┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐

The orange line indicator at the bottom of the chart is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin realized profits; the blue line indicator is the 365-day moving average of Bitcoin realized losses.

Bitcoin realized profits: Among the Bitcoin spent (transferred) on-chain each day, the portion sold at a price higher than its previous moving (acquisition) price; the total accumulated profit amount (usually denominated in USD).
Bitcoin realized losses: The portion sold at a price lower than its previous moving price; the total accumulated loss amount.

These two are classic on-chain indicators, reflecting the actual scale of locked-in gains and losses by investors and overall market sentiment.

A downward cross of the 365-day MA of realized profits below the 365-day MA of realized losses (a death cross) means that, over the past year, the average realized losses have exceeded profits, and the market has entered a phase of deep capitulation/selling in panic. Historically, this death cross has appeared without exception near the bottom of bear markets—an ultra-high-probability cyclical bottom signal.