Bitcoin is steadily grinding higher and has now reached a key decision zone around 65k.
The last time price traded at this level, it was rejected and moved lower. I'm leaning toward a similar outcome unless $BTC can break and hold above the 65.2k–65.6k range.
A confirmed breakout above that resistance would invalidate the current bearish outlook, shift market structure to bullish, and likely trigger a wave of short liquidations. If that happens, BTC could rally toward the 67k–68k area over the coming days.
For now, I'm maintaining my short positions with clearly defined stop-loss levels above resistance. If price is rejected from this zone again, I expect increased volatility and a move toward 61.3k.
$BTC pushing back above $68K wasn’t driven by crypto alone.
The Treasury doubling long-duration bond buybacks helped revive risk appetite across markets, and that move was enough to wipe out more than $1.4B in BTC shorts.
But the flow data is what really stands out.
Spot $BTC ETFs have already seen roughly $951M in net inflows this August, including $189M in a single session this week. ETH ETFs added another $70M+. That looks more like institutional allocation than retail FOMO.
Still, the picture isn’t entirely bullish.
VanEck’s capitulation model currently has 8 of 12 indicators triggered, a setup that has historically been followed by weaker 3–6 month periods.
DeFi also quietly suffered a $13B drawdown in April, largely from yield strategies breaking under pressure rather than outright exploits.
$ETH may show its next major move more clearly against $BTC than against the dollar.
ETH/BTC has remained in a multiyear downtrend, so a simple bounce isn’t enough to confirm a genuine reversal.
A decisive breakout followed by higher lows, higher highs, and rising volume would signal real capital rotation rather than temporary ETH outperformance.
That matters because ETH has often acted as a bridge between Bitcoin dominance and broader altcoin risk.
If ETH/BTC reverses while liquidity and onchain activity strengthen, the setup becomes far more compelling.
Bank of America views $NVDAB as one of the most attractive ways to gain exposure to the AI buildout, maintaining a $350 price target.
Nvidia is leveraging its massive free cash flow to secure key inputs across chips, land, power, and data-center capacity. With GPU rental rates holding firm and compute remaining scarce, the company continues strengthening its position.
Not much has changed over the past few days. Bitcoin is still trading on relatively low volume, which has resulted in slow and uneventful price action.
For now, we remain in a short-term neutral range between $62.5K and $65K. The next strong move should become clearer once either level breaks with conviction.
Historically, August and September tend to be weaker months for Bitcoin, so I’m still leaning bearish over the coming weeks, especially while price remains below major macro resistance.
The market may feel boring right now, but these quiet periods are often when staying focused matters most. The biggest opportunities usually come to those who remain patient when everyone else loses interest. #BNBChainToActivatePasteurHardFork #USJulyRetailSalesFall0.6%
Historically, price has filled every mFVG, and now we have another one sitting above us.
During this bear market, whenever an mFVG formed above price, BTC eventually tapped into it and experienced a volatile rejection.
These levels are often tested around the Monthly Open, and we’re seeing a similar setup develop again.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC push toward that mFVG over the coming weeks.
Here’s my playbook:
First, I’m watching for a rejection after a sweep of $65.4K, followed by a move toward the $63.8K gap.
If that gap holds, I’ll start looking for long setups from there.
I typically aim for a 1:3 risk-to-reward, so I won’t necessarily hold the entire position toward $67K. However, I’ll definitely be watching for a breakout toward $67K–$68K.
If BTC breaks above and taps into the mFVG, I’ll then look for potential swing shorts targeting the $60K–$61K region.
Of course, there’s also a possibility that after sweeping $65.4K, $BTC simply continues dumping toward $60K–$61K.
As mentioned yesterday, the $64K level remains the key momentum zone to watch this week.
Bitcoin is slowly pushing higher, but the price action is still choppy and lacks the strength needed for a confident long setup.
Open interest has remained relatively flat throughout this move, increasing the likelihood of a liquidity sweep.
I'm still heavily positioned on the short side, as shared earlier this week, but I'm watching the $62.9K liquidity area for a potential hedge long.
Keep in mind this hedge long is meant to offset existing short exposure. If you're not already short, it's a higher-risk counter-trend trade.
For anyone still looking to enter shorts, a sweep above the previous day's high followed by a rejection around $65K could offer another opportunity.
My downside targets remain unchanged: the equal lows first, followed by the $60K region as the primary target.
If Bitcoin reaches $65K and sellers fail to step in while price begins consolidating above that level, I'll avoid forcing a short and wait for a clearer setup.
$BTC respected yesterday's short setup exactly as expected.
As mentioned yesterday, the sweep above the 65.1K high provided a solid short opportunity.
If you entered that trade, you're likely in profit now. Consider locking in partial gains and moving your stop-loss to break-even to protect your capital.
For today's session, my focus is on managing existing short positions. We've already swept the previous day's high (PDH), and with it being the final trading day of the month, I'm taking a more cautious approach.
While the short setup played out well, the previous day's low (PDL) around 63.6K could act as strong support. Based on today's expected volatility range, price may not extend much beyond that level after already taking liquidity above the PDH.
Under normal conditions, a PDH sweep often creates a strong bearish setup heading into the weekend. However, month-end and Friday price action can be unpredictable, so risk management comes first.
The recent rejection has also built additional liquidity above the 65.8K highs, leaving both sides of the range attractive targets.
If this weekly candle closes above the 63K lows, there's a good chance Bitcoin could target the range highs during the next weekly candle.
For now, I'm moving all remaining short positions to break-even, taking partial profits, and letting the rest run. Protecting capital remains the top priority while allowing the market to play out.
This could be one of the most important weeks for financial markets in 2026.
This could be one of the most important weeks for financial markets in 2026. The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, four Magnificent 7 companies release earnings, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due. Here’s what to watch: 1. Federal Reserve rate decision – July 29 (Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET) Interest rates have remained at 3.50%–3.75% for four straight meetings, with most analysts expecting no change this week. However, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by September after oil climbed to $100, raising fresh inflation concerns. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offering limited forward guidance, the market reaction could be significant. 2. Microsoft ( $MSFT ) & Meta ($META ) earnings – July 29 (after market close) Both tech giants continue investing heavily in AI. Microsoft is projected to spend more than $190B this year, while Meta expects $125B–$145B in AI-related spending during 2026. Investors are no longer impressed by spending alone—they now want to see clear returns and stronger profitability. 3. GDP & Core PCE inflation – July 30 (Thursday, 8:30 AM ET) Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is forecast to increase by 0.1%, while GDP growth is expected at 2.3%. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the case for a September rate hike, while softer data may reduce that likelihood. 4. Apple ($AAPL ) & Amazon ($AMZN) earnings – July 30 (after market close) Apple has taken a more measured approach to AI investment and remains close to record highs. Amazon, meanwhile, is investing more than $200B, yet its share price still trails recent highs. Their results will offer another view of whether massive AI spending is translating into shareholder value. 5. Other key events this week July 28 (Tuesday): Consumer Confidence July 29 (Wednesday): Visa ($V) & Robinhood ($HOOD) earnings July 30 (Thursday): Coinbase ($COIN) & Strategy ($MSTR) earnings July 31 (Friday): Bank of Japan policy decision Meanwhile, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading around $64K heading into this packed week. Why it matters The Magnificent 7 account for roughly one-third of the S&P 500, meaning their earnings can influence the broader market, index funds, and retirement portfolios. At the same time, the Fed’s interest rate decisions affect borrowing costs across the economy ,from mortgages and loans to credit cards and business investment. Ultimately, this week revolves around two key questions: Are companies generating enough returns from their AI investments, and where are interest rates headed next? #CrudeBrieflyFallsBelow$90 #BrentCrudeFallsAbout6%
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