云舒的投资日常

Filtered overseas bloggers on the Iran and Israel issues, focusing on those who predict the Iran-U.S. talks most accurately, especially those who predicted the failure of the last round of the 'Islamabad Talks' (April 10-12, 2026, which completely collapsed 21 hours later, with no agreement). These are predominantly English-speaking overseas analysts (from the U.S./UK/Israel background), not Chinese-speaking bloggers, specializing in Middle Eastern geopolitics, the Iran nuclear issue, and U.S.-Iran diplomacy. They have frequently predicted red line conflicts and negotiation breakdowns with high accuracy.
1. @LinaKhatibUK
Background: A Middle East expert of British/Lebanese descent, visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School, former deputy researcher of the Middle East Program at Chatham House, focusing on Iran, Lebanon, and regional conflicts. Long-term voice in think tanks and media.
Why: She publicly expressed skepticism in early April that 'there would be no diplomatic breakthrough in the short term' (off-ramp unlikely), accurately identifying the irreconcilable red lines between both parties regarding the nuclear issue, the Strait of Hormuz, and proxies (Lebanon).
Prediction Style: Calm, professional, does not take sides, often points out in advance that 'the gap between the positions of both sides is too large, negotiations are just a delay.' Suitable for those looking for neutral and in-depth analysis.
Follow Recommendation: Her posts often include the latest intelligence and historical comparisons, and her predictions for the next round (potentially resuming in Pakistan/Geneva) are also worth watching.

2. @JasonMBrodsky
Background: Policy Director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), focusing on the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), sanctions, and regional threats. Frequently cited by U.S. media.
Why: He has consistently held a hardline skeptical attitude toward Iran's 'red lines' (enriched uranium, missiles, proxy networks), with multiple early warnings of failure.
Prediction Style: Hard-core, based on intelligence and official signals, often stating in advance that 'it won't work out, sanctions/military pressure will escalate.' Particularly accurate in predicting the Trump administration's Iran policy.
Follow Recommendation: If you want to see the U.S. perspective + details on nuclear issues, he is reliable.

3. @MonitorX99800
Background: Independent account focusing on global events/geopolitics, specializing in updates on the U.S., Middle East, and Europe.
Prediction Style: Real-time updates + citing official/intelligence, with a high probability of failure in predictions.
Follow Recommendation: As a supplement, information is fast but less deep than the previous two.

Today the short-term strategy has been updated, which has been neglected for a long time.
Last night I watched the market until late at night and cognitively felt that the probability of the US and Iran reaching an agreement in the first round is very low, plus the typical algorithmic trading traces over the weekend.
Manipulation upward, the order book is extremely thin.
I have been waiting for a reversal opportunity to find a chance to bet.
I first established a short position in the early morning, when the first sentence from JD was "well," it was clear that one could infer an unsatisfactory tone, so I simply added to the short position.
The reasons are:
1) Pushing the JD + Kushner combination to negotiate is a contradiction; it represents Israel's interests or occupies a position in the negotiation considerations.
2) Even if Israel provokes the big brother to go to war, Israel's security in the Middle East is still one of America's core interests.
3) The economic interests of the negotiation content can be significantly compromised, but expecting the first round to make Iran give up the enriched nuclear material accumulated over so many years and abandon its nuclear weapons program is clearly extremely difficult; Iran has built so many missile bases as a backup, and now less than one-third have been destroyed.

The most uncertain factor is whether the new Iranian leader is as skilled in balancing internal forces as the previous generation.
These questions will continue to provide answers to #美伊和谈未能达成协议 .

1010 Continuing the trend of 0923, the long and short conversions during the holidays | Yunshu's trading routine
Continuing from the short positions of those two weeks from 0923, I continue to swing until the 27th when I start traveling, during which there were about two waves of long and short conversions.
I don't like playing memes, so I won't participate in things like coin an life.
Mainly because I'm too lazy to catch the hot ones, I'll let the post-00s sit and play.

Can only draw now, family 😭

On the 15th, the logic of liquidity sweep was discussed in advance
and the elements of doing swing in conjunction with our indicators
were swept today～

God's Indicator Hahaha
Completely Free DM Me for Testing

ARB$ARB
Lowest point reminder
Dropped 20%

Hmm, on the ninth day 4000u reached 10.8