0xMomo

SpaceX went public on NASDAQ last Friday, opening at $150 and closing at $161, with a market cap surpassing $2 trillion. It was four times oversubscribed, raising $75 billion, and everything seemed perfect.

But over here in the crypto world, it’s a whole different ball game.

Multiple crypto platforms launched tokenized SpaceX shares for subscription before the IPO. They attracted over $557 million in USDC deposits, with 28,000 wallets participating. Everyone thought they could finally snag a piece of a traditional IPO on-chain.

But yesterday, the platforms collectively announced cancellations and promised full refunds.

The common reason was: the underlying infrastructure provider couldn’t deliver the actual stocks. Four platforms were using the same channel, and when it broke, no one got their goods.

This is not a minor issue. $557 million was locked up for a week, and users were left waiting not for token delivery, but for a "sorry, refunds."

Trust is hard to build—it takes a hundred successes—but can be destroyed with just one failure. The tokenized IPO concept had been hyped for over half a year, and it finally faced a heavyweight test, only to fall flat right out of the gate.

The market is casting its vote. BTC is now at 63,670, with a daily RSI of 55.89, leaning slightly bullish, and a MACD histogram of 105 in positive territory, showing momentum isn’t crushed. The funding rate at 0.0054% is quite mild. The price itself hasn’t collapsed, but the damage on the narrative front is real.

ETH is a bit weaker, sitting at $1,666, with a 4-hour RSI of 51.17, neutral, and the funding rate has turned negative at -0.0006%. Shorts are starting to collect fees, indicating the market sentiment towards the tokenization space is indeed cooling off.

To put it plainly, the bottleneck for tokenization has never been on the demand side. Users are willing to lock in $557 million, showcasing explosive demand. The issue lies on the supply side—traditional finance's settlement infrastructure isn't ready for the crypto world.

This event acts as a sobering reality check for the entire RWA narrative. Tokenized stocks aren’t just about writing a smart contract; there’s a complete chain behind it involving T+1 settlements, custody compliance, and cross-border regulations. Crypto can handle the front end, but the back end is still in the hands of traditional finance.

SBF's appeal was also rejected, maintaining his 25-year sentence. His only chance now is a presidential pardon, but as things stand, that seems unlikely. These two events combined send a clear signal: the crypto industry’s desire to break into mainstream finance faces much higher technical and compliance hurdles than anticipated.

My take is that tokenized IPOs won’t die, but they’ll slow down. Infrastructure needs time to mature, and the regulatory framework needs to catch up. The next successful tokenized IPO may have to wait until traditional custody and crypto settlement systems are truly integrated.

Until then, rather than chasing concepts, it's better to keep a close eye on those quietly building the infrastructure. When the road is paved, the cars will naturally come.

The cross-border payment space has been buzzing lately.

MassPay and Coinbase just announced their partnership today, launching stablecoin cross-border settlements. They’re covering 180 countries, with Coinbase providing wallet infrastructure and custody, while MassPay handles the fiat withdrawals. The CEO mentioned that customers have seen costs drop by 40% to 70% compared to traditional wire transfers, and settlement times have shifted from days to nearly real-time. The first year's target is to handle nine-figure transaction volumes, meaning over a hundred million dollars in stablecoin cross-border flows.

Sounds like just another partnership announcement, right? But in the context of the entire space, it’s a different story.

Last year, Stripe acquired Bridge, a startup focused on stablecoin enterprise-grade infrastructure, explicitly stating that stablecoins are set to become the key channel for cross-border commerce. Circle launched its Payments Network this April, connecting banks, payment companies, and digital wallets with USDC for real-time cross-border settlements. Now MassPay is bringing Coinbase into the game.

Three independent players, all sharing the same insight: stablecoins are not just toys for the crypto world; they are the next-gen pipeline for cross-border payments.

One more thing, the MassPay CEO honestly admitted that stablecoins currently make up a small portion of their overall transaction volume. That’s the truth. The cross-border payment market is in the trillions, and stablecoins aren't even a drop in the bucket yet. But because their share is small and growing fast, it indicates there's room for expansion.

LINK, representing the oracle and cross-chain infrastructure tokens, is currently sitting at $7.91, barely moving. The 4-hour RSI is at 53.57, which is neutral, and while the MACD histogram has turned positive, the momentum is weak, with funding rates close to zero. The market hasn’t reached a consensus on this narrative yet.

But infrastructure waits for no one. Traditional payment giants are expanding, on-chain oracles and settlement layers are keeping pace, and the stablecoin cross-border payment space is transitioning from concept to contracts. Keep an eye on LINK and related payment infrastructure tokens for upcoming volume-price synergy; a breakout in volume would signal that the market is starting to price this space.

The US regulators have proposed a new plan that could dismantle the biggest legal barriers for trading tokenized US stocks on decentralized exchanges.

Specifically, they plan to abolish two market rules: one that prohibits "trade-through" (meaning an exchange can't execute stock orders at worse prices than other exchanges), and another that stops exchanges from displaying buy and sell quotes that are higher than elsewhere. These rules might not seem related to crypto, but Alex Thorn, the research head at Galaxy Digital, says this could be "the biggest unlocking of tokenized US stocks."

Why's that? Because under the current rules, the automated market makers on decentralized exchanges would continuously trigger trade-through violations when handling tokenized stock trades, which is theoretically illegal. With the abolishment of these rules, market makers can legally provide liquidity for tokenized stocks. Regulators might replace it with a "best execution" framework, giving decentralized trading some compliance leeway.

This timing is quite nuanced. Over the past two months, the tokenization space has been busy: Nasdaq got approval in March to pilot trading tokenized stocks, the NYSE collaborated with Securitize to develop blockchain trading infrastructure, and JPMorgan and Bank of America are prepping a tokenized deposit network expected to launch in the first half of 2027. Digital Asset just secured $355 million in funding to expand the Canton Network. Now, with regulators breaking down legal barriers, it feels like everyone is pushing in the same direction.

ETH's technicals are also worth keeping an eye on. The daily RSI is at 31, already in the oversold zone, while the 4-hour RSI is at 51, neutral. The MACD histogram turning positive at 2.72 indicates some short-term rebound momentum. Interestingly, the funding rates have been negative for several periods; shorts are in control, but the magnitude is small and not panic-driven. If this regulatory change shifts from uncertainty to confirmed positivity, short covering could trigger a rebound.

However, don't get too excited. The proposal is still in a 60-day comment period, and the final version may differ from the current one. Plus, even if the rules change, the liquidity depth of tokenized stocks, market maker participation, and user acceptance remain unknowns. But the direction is clear: the legal barriers for decentralized trading of traditional assets are being dismantled brick by brick.

Today, a new face hit the Nasdaq, Avalanche Treasury, ticker AVAT, backed by heavyweights like Dragonfly, Pantera, VanEck, Galaxy, and Kraken. The result? A straight drop of 16% on its first day, opening at $2.20 and closing at $1.85.

This is just the latest case of crypto treasury firms facing a chill.

Let's take a look at the veterans in the same lane: Strategy has seen its stock price plummet by 69% over the past year, BitMine crashed from last July's high of $135 to just $16.5 now, and SOL Strategies is down 92%. BTC treasury's weekly net inflow has dropped from over $2 billion in April-May this year to just $266 million now, clearly indicating capital withdrawal.

AVAX itself isn't looking too hot either, today at $6.61, down 95% from its all-time high in 2021, back to early 2021 levels. RSI is at 46.82, MACD is below the zero line but just had its bars turn positive, showing signs of stabilization but no real reversal yet. Volume is at 13 million, with average liquidity.

The Avalanche ecosystem isn't bad, with over 550 projects in the pipeline, institutional capital deployment exceeding $1 billion, and on-chain RWA tokenization at $1.65 billion. The CEO of AVAT stated this isn't about betting on price, but about repositioning institutional finance. The logic makes sense, but the market clearly isn't buying it.

To put it bluntly, in this environment, crypto treasury firms face an awkward reality: investors can buy the underlying assets directly, so why pay you an extra fee? Unless you can offer something not available through traditional channels, this model will struggle to survive in a bear market.

AVAT's first-day drop isn't an isolated incident; it's a microcosm of the entire sector. Waiting for market sentiment to warm up before reassessing isn't a bad idea.

The ECB announced a 0.25% rate hike today, pushing rates to 2.75% for the first time in three years. On the surface, this seems like a European issue, but there’s a bigger story lurking behind: global central banks are tightening collectively, and how much longer can BTC hold up during this tightening cycle?

Let’s talk about a trend. Over the past two years, the BOJ has raised rates four times, each time hitting BTC hard. After the hike in March 2024, BTC dropped by 18%. The July 31 hike was even worse, dropping 18.5%. In January and December 2025, it fell 25% and 28% respectively. After four hikes, the average drop was 22.4%. Each rate increase triggered massive unwinding of yen carry trades, with funds fleeing risk assets.

But the situation is different now. The BOJ has raised rates from -0.1% to 0.75%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds has skyrocketed from 0.63% to 2.68%. Analyst Cryptic Trades bluntly states that market fears regarding yen carry trade unwinding have been overstated, as Japan has effectively exited the deflationary era in 2024. The marginal impact of each rate hike is decreasing; not every hike will create the same deep pit.

Over in the U.S., things aren’t quiet either. CPI has surged to 4.2%, a three-year high. Analysts at 10x Research straightforwardly point out that this macro environment is a persistent headwind for BTC, increasing the likelihood of it dropping below $60,000. The CIO of institutional trading firm Theo believes this data will keep the Fed cautious; it’s neither good nor bad for BTC, and liquidity expectations are being suppressed.

On-chain data reveals the true source of pressure. Large wallets on Binance holding between 100 to 10,000 BTC have transferred $6.6 billion to exchanges over the past month. Concentrated inflows from whales typically indicate brewing sell pressure. Additionally, both short-term and long-term whales have already realized losses exceeding $2.5 billion during this downturn, with short-term holders still carrying about $16 billion in unrealized losses. This position is too close to breakeven, and any slight rebound could trigger sell-offs.

However, as the market prices in these risks, it seems to have already accounted for the worst-case scenario. The daily RSI for BTC has dropped to 28.95, a typical oversold signal. The funding rate has turned negative to -0.0013%, and the crowded short positions actually create conditions for a rebound. The 4-hour MACD histogram has turned positive, with RSI back in the neutral bullish zone at 56, and prices have stabilized above $63,000, rebounding 2.78%.

In short, the market is digesting the central bank tightening. The BOJ's rate hike cycle has lasted over a year, and the marginal impacts are waning. Despite high CPI in the U.S., CME futures indicate a 98.4% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in June, with rate hike expectations actually cooling down. BTC has dropped 36% this year; what needed to drop has already dropped.

What really needs watching is oil prices. If oil prices continue to soar and push up inflation expectations, or if the Fed shifts hawkish, then the $60,000 defense line could be in real danger. But the current technicals tell me that the combination of being oversold and crowded shorts might be brewing a corrective rally in the market.

#ECB Rate Hike 0.25% First Time in Three Years

Last week, Matt Hougan from Bitwise hit up over 40 institutional advisors and came back with one key takeaway: "Talking BTC with them is like pulling teeth."

This might be the clearest shift in traditional finance's attitude toward crypto in the past two years.

He found that these advisors are way more interested in stablecoins and tokenization than BTC itself. It's not that they’re bearish on BTC; rather, they see it as a "finished product"—they know what it is and its value, but what really excites them are the innovations that can change how capital markets operate.

On the same day, Franklin Templeton and BNP Paribas shared a joint perspective at the WAIB summit in Monaco: tokenization can enhance the settlement efficiency and collateral liquidity of European capital markets. The head of digital assets at Franklin Templeton put it bluntly, saying tokenization offers institutions "more options and flexibility," which is exactly why banks and large enterprises want to issue their own products now.

The digital infrastructure scene is also ramping up. Digital Asset just raised $355 million, led by a16z, with a valuation of $2 billion. This cash will be used to expand the Canton Network, a blockchain designed specifically for financial institutions that can tokenize and settle traditional securities while safeguarding sensitive commercial data. Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, Standard Chartered, and Deutsche Börse have already run pilots on it.

Earlier, Nasdaq got regulatory approval for a pilot on tokenized stock trading, and the New York Stock Exchange is partnering with Securitize to build on-chain trading infrastructure. JPMorgan and Bank of America are planning to launch a tokenized deposit network in the first half of 2027.

Looking back at the scene: BTC has dropped nearly 30% this year, but traditional finance isn't retreating; they're switching lanes. It’s not about abandoning crypto, but shifting from "buy BTC" to "build infrastructure."

BTC's daily RSI is at 32, still in the oversold zone, while the 4-hour RSI at 55 is starting to warm up. The daily MACD is still below the zero line, but the histogram is narrowing, indicating the downtrend is slowing. The funding rate is at 0.0027%, quite low but positive, showing that the bulls haven't run for the hills but aren't adding positions either. ETH's daily RSI is also at 32, oversold, with the funding rate turning negative at -0.0024%, as the bears are testing the waters.

ONDO, as the leader in the RWA sector, saw a 5.3% increase today, with the 4-hour RSI at 53 leaning neutral to bullish and a trading volume of 12 million. At this level, it's better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before chasing highs.

Money from traditional finance is shifting from "buying coins" to "building pathways," and this transition is more profound than any single ETF approval. In the short term, BTC is still bottoming out, but the pace of building on-chain infrastructure has never slowed down.

Botanix announced it's shutting down, after four years of trying to scale Bitcoin, it just couldn't make it work.

Today I saw the Botanix team dropped an announcement on X, urging users to withdraw all BTC and other assets by July 9, or risk having their assets wiped out with no chance of recovery. This project was in the works for four years, with the Spiderchain architecture combining EVM-compatible chains and PoS consensus, allowing BTC to run smart contracts. Big players like Chainlink, Fireblocks, and Galaxy were on board, and they even launched a consumer-focused Bitcoin banking app.

But the team admitted that while the tech was solid and the product was built, they just couldn't find a sustainable product-market fit.

The core issue is pretty clear. Most BTC holders still see Bitcoin as a store of value and a yield-generating tool, and they really don’t want to be messing around with DeFi on-chain all the time. Plus, the existing demand for BTC DeFi has already been mostly gobbled up by wrapped BTC on Ethereum. Botanix created a native Bitcoin scaling layer, but the market doesn’t need another generic EVM chain.

Citrea’s CEO had a straightforward take on this: it’s not a Bitcoin DeFi problem, it’s a cloning method problem. Botanix copied the Ethereum protocol over but didn’t provide any real differentiated value for long-term BTC holders. He mentioned that Citrea's direction focuses on private payments and native Bitcoin capital markets, rather than just another generic lending and trading fork.

Right now, Stacks and Rootstock are still working on Bitcoin scaling, but they’re facing similar challenges with user activity and transaction fee revenue. The shutdown of Botanix highlights a reality: exchanges and traditional financial intermediaries have taken most of the attention and trading volume, and even top-tier infrastructure can't support revenue.

From a technical standpoint, BTC is currently at $61,386, with a 4-hour RSI of 43 sitting in a weak zone but not quite oversold, and the MACD histogram just turned positive, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. The funding rate is only 0.0025%, showing that long-leveraged positions are totally flat. Over on the ETH side, it's dropped nearly 2%, with an RSI of 41 also looking weak, and the funding rate even turned negative, confirming that market sentiment is indeed gloomy.

The path for Bitcoin scaling isn’t going away, but the lesson from Botanix is clear: users don’t need yet another EVM chain; they need what only Bitcoin can offer. Those still working on generic scaling projects need to seriously consider what sets them apart from Ethereum Layer 2.