Kralice 1

🔥 BITCOIN ENFLASYON DUVARINI YIKMAYA ÇALIŞIYOR Piyasada birkaç gündür çok ilginç bir savaş dönüyor. Bir tarafta: 🇺🇸 Kripto regülasyonlarında netleşmesi (Clarity Act) 🇨🇳 Çin – ABD tarafında tansiyonun düşmesi 🟢 Hürmüz Boğazı’nın açık kalacağı mesajları (Çin ve ABD bu konuda anlaştı) Negatif tarafta: 🛢️ petrol baskısı hala devam ediyor. Stok beklenenden az açıklandı. (yaklaşık -4.3 milyon varil düştü, beklenenden yüksek bir düşüş) 📈 Hala yüksek enflasyon bir risk! 🏦 Fed’in uzun süre sıkı kalma ihtimali devam ediyor. Dün sıcak gelen PPI verisi sonrası market tekrar korkuya geçmişti ve $BTC 80K altını test etmişti. Ama bugün gelen tepki oldukça pozitif oldu. BTC yeniden 81K üstüne kadar hızla çıktı. Özellikle Clarity Act tarafı çok kritik. ABD ilk kez kriptoyu tamamen dışlamak yerine sistem içine alma sinyali veriyor. Teknik tarafta ise (Bitcoin için): 📌 80K destek olarak dayanabilirse tekrar 82K sıçraması göreceğiz 📌 Ama 82K hâlâ ana direnç 82K üstü kapanış gelirse marketin havası çok hızlı değişir. 🥳🎉

The market got a bit of a breather yesterday after Trump’s statement that "if the Iran war ends, the market will rise," but today’s PPI (Producer Price Index) data has completely changed the vibe. After the initial CPI (Consumer Price Index) release, there was hope that the Fed might ease up. However, today’s Producer Price Index shows that inflationary pressures are still strong. $BTC is testing below 80K again because of this. 🏦 The main fear in the market right now is clear: "The Fed might stay tight for a longer period." Let’s see if strong buyers will still come in around the 80K mark!

BTC's rally has hit a wall with the CPI. The market was climbing for a few weeks due to: 🟢 ETF inflows 🟢 easing expectations from Iran 🟢 a recovery in risk appetite. But today's inflation data reminded the market: the Fed's hands are still tied. The real question now is: 🏦 Will the Fed cut rates to soothe the market or will they hold off due to inflation fears? This is why BTC's momentum has slowed, and 82K is still acting as resistance. There's also an important detail on the ETF front: Yesterday saw another negative close, but the outflow amount has significantly shrunk. This tells me: ❌ Institutions are not panic selling ✅ But they haven't shifted into aggressive buying mode either. Right now, the market is completely in "wait-and-see" mode.

US April inflation came in as expected at 0.6%, but $BTC took another hit because the market is now pricing in: 🛢️ oil (rising) 🇮🇷 Iran risk and the 🏦 Fed's likelihood of staying hawkish for a longer period. Especially with Brent rising again, risk appetite has been suppressed. 82K is still holding strong as resistance, and BTC has been pulled back to the 80K range. However, 80K is still being defended. This shows me that the market isn't entirely bearish. I think right now the market is just trying to choose a direction. If we break above 82K, momentum will return, but if we see daily closes below 80K, a quick test of 78K could be on the table.

The market today is totally focused on the US inflation data set to be released tomorrow. Right now, everyone is asking: "Is inflation picking up speed again?" Because oil prices have started to rise again and the Iran crisis is still not fully resolved. The market has been pricing in a "deal is coming" narrative for the past few days, but today things got a bit messy. Trump called Iran's latest offer "totally unacceptable." So, the expected easing hasn’t happened yet! Therefore: 🛢️ Brent crude is rising again 📈 Energy prices are starting to spark inflation fears 📉 Risk assets (especially crypto) are feeling the pressure. There are still strong buyers in the market, but there's a serious sell wall around the $BTC 82K zone!!

So, is the Peki Strategy buying $BTC again? Yes. Just a few days after the "we might sell" discussions, they've stacked up on BTC again. Last buy: 🟠 535 BTC 💰 About 43 million bucks 📊 Average cost: ~80.3K. But here's the key detail: This is significantly smaller compared to previous buys. We used to see aggressive accumulation in the billions. Now the pace has really slowed down.

Let's check out the 1-hour $BTC chart: There's a net higher low structure. Buyers are finding it cheap below 80K, and with some buying pressure, the price has pushed up. Lows are rising; highs are also slightly increasing 🟢 This indicates a short-term bullish setup. The market is waiting for important economic data coming this Tuesday!

The $BTC charts show a much cleaner structure compared to last week. We're tracking an upward trend line on the 5-minute timeframe. The trend is still bullish, but momentum is slowing down. There's currently no aggressive breakout energy. It's trying to gather strength while holding the 80.8K–81K zone. However, 5-minute trend lines alone aren't very reliable.

The picture BTC's painting over the last two weeks is a far cry from the panic vibes at the end of March. Especially: - The oil front calming down - Easing tensions between the US and Iran - $BTC managing to stay above 80K - ETFs not painting a grim picture has boosted market morale. If you're wondering what the main story in the market will be this week: INFLATION This week is all about: - CPI - PPI - Retail Sales week. In other words, the market will be trying to figure out: "Can the Fed really ease up?" If the data comes in bad this week: BTC might face ⚠️ pressure around 80K again. A new week is starting, and now BTC's direction will be determined not by war, but by inflation data.

In crypto today (May 8th) 🇺🇸 the US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data came in strong. Expectation: ~65K | Actual: ~115K) So the US economy is still lively. This data is negative for crypto because it raises concerns that the Fed might stay hawkish for longer. The economy is strong, and the Fed won't rush to cut rates. What's POSITIVE: - Oil is easing - Fear of war is decreasing - BTC is still holding above 80K And I think the most important detail: despite the bad macro, $BTC isn't crashing hard. Today ETFs turned negative. (Yesterday's data) This indicates there's a significant sell wall at 82K. Institutions aren't aggressively FOMOing and are realizing profits.

Can Bitcoin Hold Above 82K? With hopes of a deal in Hormuz and a drop in oil prices, $BTC hit a level of 82,700$ . It later pulled back to 81K. 👉 What’s been pushing BTC up today: the potential for a US–Iran deal, expectations of Hormuz reopening, a sharp drop in Brent oil, and the weakening of the dollar. Positive spot BTC ETF entries have remained. Polymarket is heavily leaning towards an 85K target this month! If we see a sustained close above 82K for BTC, 84–85K comes into play. A return to around the 81K area isn't panic; it looks like profit-taking and a short-term correction around 82K. There’s significant diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. On the Brent side, there's a very sharp movement, with Brent dropping around 10% to below $98.