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Joao Wedson

💎Founder & CEO of @Alphractal 🏅Verified Author at CoinMarketCap & CryptoQuant ⚙ MSc in Data Science & AI 🦾Engineer in Robotics & Automation ₿itcoin OG
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Is the Bitcoin cycle dead? Many keep repeating that. But for now, the Bitcoin Repetition Fractal Cycle and the Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index are still holding. And I understand how hard it is to believe that right now. The market is designed to make the majority doubt exactly before confirmation. But Alpha-level metrics are not showing a “cycle death.” They are simply following Bitcoin’s natural course, just as they have in previous cycles. Bitcoin: Repetition Fractal Cycle ⏳ Bitcoin: Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index, ADCI ⏳ We have less than 5 months to find out whether this entire psychological simulation the crypto community is living through was just noise… or simply another fractal repetition before confirmation. Alphractal.com
Is the Bitcoin cycle dead? Many keep repeating that. But for now, the Bitcoin Repetition Fractal Cycle and the Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index are still holding. And I understand how hard it is to believe that right now. The market is designed to make the majority doubt exactly before confirmation. But Alpha-level metrics are not showing a “cycle death.” They are simply following Bitcoin’s natural course, just as they have in previous cycles. Bitcoin: Repetition Fractal Cycle ⏳ Bitcoin: Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index, ADCI ⏳ We have less than 5 months to find out whether this entire psychological simulation the crypto community is living through was just noise… or simply another fractal repetition before confirmation. Alphractal.com
The balance of addresses holding more than $10M across all stablecoins has not been rising since the crypto market reached all-time highs in October 2025. Stablecoins are the real liquidity heart of crypto. You should be paying closer attention to them. Alphractal.com
The balance of addresses holding more than $10M across all stablecoins has not been rising since the crypto market reached all-time highs in October 2025.

Stablecoins are the real liquidity heart of crypto. You should be paying closer attention to them. Alphractal.com
The on-chain volume of USDT and USDC across all blockchains is declining. Even with prediction markets growing, the real volume of stablecoins has not reached the levels we saw at the end of 2021. Alphractal.com
The on-chain volume of USDT and USDC across all blockchains is declining. Even with prediction markets growing, the real volume of stablecoins has not reached the levels we saw at the end of 2021. Alphractal.com
Satoshi Nakamoto is Hal Finney, or Hal Finney is Satoshi Nakamoto? Nobody knows. But if Hal was Satoshi, maybe Bitcoin’s real supply should not be discussed only as 21M BTC anymore. The protocol supply is still ~21M. But the market does not trade the protocol limit. It trades the available float. Current circulating supply is around 20.02M BTC. Now add the structure: ETFs + funds: ~2M BTC Miners: ~1.8M BTC Exchanges: ~2.6M to 2.8M BTC Public treasuries: ~1.2M BTC Satoshi Nakamoto: ~700K to 1.1M BTC Potentially lost / never moved coins: ~6.5M to 7.39M BTC, including Satoshi A large part of Bitcoin is lost, dormant, locked in long-term hands, sitting in ETFs, miners, treasuries or exchange reserves. So the real question is not how many BTC exist. It is how many BTC are actually available to be bought, sold and repriced. And that number is much smaller than most people think. Bitcoin does not need everyone to buy. It only needs the available supply to keep shrinking while demand keeps rising.
Satoshi Nakamoto is Hal Finney, or Hal Finney is Satoshi Nakamoto? Nobody knows. But if Hal was Satoshi, maybe Bitcoin’s real supply should not be discussed only as 21M BTC anymore. The protocol supply is still ~21M. But the market does not trade the protocol limit. It trades the available float. Current circulating supply is around 20.02M BTC. Now add the structure: ETFs + funds: ~2M BTC Miners: ~1.8M BTC Exchanges: ~2.6M to 2.8M BTC Public treasuries: ~1.2M BTC Satoshi Nakamoto: ~700K to 1.1M BTC Potentially lost / never moved coins: ~6.5M to 7.39M BTC, including Satoshi A large part of Bitcoin is lost, dormant, locked in long-term hands, sitting in ETFs, miners, treasuries or exchange reserves. So the real question is not how many BTC exist. It is how many BTC are actually available to be bought, sold and repriced. And that number is much smaller than most people think. Bitcoin does not need everyone to buy. It only needs the available supply to keep shrinking while demand keeps rising.
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