Joao Wedson

One way to anticipate major volatility in the crypto market is by analyzing Bitcoin's correlation with the top altcoins. Watch what happens when altcoins stop following Bitcoin's price movements and how the market reacts shortly afterward! These moments are relatively rare. In this case, I used the 1-hour timeframe with a 48-hour rolling correlation window, measuring the relationship over the past two days. Typically, this happens when altcoins are falling while Bitcoin is rising, or when altcoins are rising while Bitcoin is falling. These divergences are often a warning sign of major liquidation events! Alphractal is now one of the few platforms where you can explore charts like these across all timeframes, starting from just 1 minute, along with indicators such as the Altcoin Season Index! #Bitcoin $BTC

Bitcoin: Delta Growth Rate Shows Signs of Recovery! The Delta Growth Rate is a metric that combines the growth of Market Cap and Realized Cap, helping identify divergences between Bitcoin's price appreciation and the accumulation of on-chain value. Historically, negative values have been associated with periods of weaker speculative activity, accumulation, and potential undervaluation. **Currently, the indicator remains in negative territory, but it has been recovering since July 2026!** This movement suggests a gradual improvement in market dynamics, although it is still not enough to confirm a structural trend reversal. The big question now is: Will this recovery be strong enough to push the Delta Growth Rate back into positive territory? Explore this and other metrics at Alphractal $BTC #Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s Buy/Sell Pressure Delta Shows a Slight Decline in Buying Pressure! In a bearish scenario, this metric typically continues declining for several days, eventually moving into negative territory. Interestingly, historical data reveals two recurring patterns when the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta stops rising: 1. Bitcoin's price starts to decline. 2. Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, building a cause-and-effect structure that can eventually lead to a larger price decline. This makes the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta an excellent indicator for monitoring bullish buying momentum and identifying when bears begin taking control of the market. At the moment, the slight reduction in buying pressure is not necessarily a reason for concern. However, it is extremely important to monitor this metric closely, especially if selling pressure begins to intensify. The key question is: Are bulls simply losing momentum, or are bears preparing to take control? Don't wait until the market makes its next move! Access the Alphractal platform now and set up an alert to notify you when selling pressure increases. You can even use ChatGPT or Claude through our MCP integration to schedule automated monitoring and receive notifications when these conditions emerge. Stay ahead of the market. Let the data speak. Alphractal $BTC

Ethereum (ETH): An Important On-Chain Level to Watch!

For those who haven't bought Ethereum yet, keep a close eye on on-chain metrics like the Investor Price.

If ETH experiences another correction, this metric could help identify a potential accumulation zone and an important long-term support level.

What is the Investor Price?

It represents the average acquisition price of economically circulating $ETH, excluding coins considered permanently lost.

By dividing the Investor Cap by the Adjusted Supply, this metric offers a refined view of the market's aggregate cost basis, reducing distortions found in traditional Realized Price models.

While no metric guarantees a market bottom, the Investor Price can provide valuable context when evaluating potential buying opportunities.
Set your price alerts and let the data guide your decisions.

Explore more at Alphractal. com

Bitcoin Exchange Netflow, based on the 30 day moving average, remains deeply negative, indicating that more BTC has been leaving exchanges than entering them recently. Negative netflows should not be interpreted as a direct signal for price appreciation. However, persistent exchange outflows are an important fundamental metric. They suggest that a significant amount of Bitcoin is being moved away from exchanges, potentially into self custody or longer term holdings, reducing the amount of BTC readily available for trading. Even after significant market volatility, investors continue to withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges. This does not define short term price direction, but it remains an important sign of long term conviction in Bitcoin. $BTC

⚠️Google search interest in crypto has fallen to its lowest level since 2024.

This reflects a broader decline in retail attention across the market. Lower interest is also visible across YouTube, X, crypto news, exchanges, aggregators such as CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko, and analysis platforms such as TradingView.

For content creators, this environment usually means lower reach and weaker engagement. For platforms and exchanges, it means fewer users actively searching, trading, and exploring the market.

These periods are a real test of retail resilience.

When global attention fades, staying active becomes harder. But historically, the market does not remain interesting only when prices are rising and engagement is high.

Sometimes, the most important periods are exactly those when fewer people are paying attention.

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Source: Alphractal

$BTC $ETH $XRP $SOL $HYPE

Ethereum Active Addresses surpassed Bitcoin for the first time near the crypto market’s latest all time high region, and ETH has remained above BTC ever since. This matters because Active Addresses are a useful proxy for how much activity is actually taking place across a network. They do not represent unique users perfectly, but they help reveal changes in participation, transaction activity and attention between ecosystems. The crossover therefore marked an important shift: while Bitcoin was trading near record levels, Ethereum was experiencing a significant expansion in on chain activity. The picture is starting to change again. Bitcoin Active Addresses are currently relatively stable around their recent range, while Ethereum Active Addresses have begun to decline after the strong expansion that pushed ETH above $BTC . Ethereum still remains ahead, but the momentum behind that activity is clearly weakening. The key question is not simply whether $ETH has more active addresses than BTC. It is whether Ethereum can sustain this elevated level of network activity while Bitcoin remains stable. The first crossover happened near the market highs. Now ETH activity is losing momentum. That divergence is worth watching closely.

Short Term Holder momentum is weakening again. The 30D Short Term Holder Net Position Change is now very close to negative territory, meaning STHs are no longer accumulating at the same pace they were 30 days ago. This can point to weaker buying pressure or a longer consolidation phase. If the metric turns deeply negative, it can also precede faster downside moves, so Exchange Netflow becomes important here. For now, we are not seeing significant BTC inflows into exchanges, which keeps the signal relatively neutral. Onchain usually starts showing these shifts before the market narrative catches up. Better to follow the data than turn bullish or bearish too early. $BTC

Bitcoin has a massive amount of old and potentially lost coins. This includes coins linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, early miners, users who lost access to their wallets, and $BTC that has remained dormant for many years. Looking at the current data: - Current Supply: 20.1M BTC - Supply in Profit: 14.8M BTC, 73.6% of total supply - Lost Coins in Profit: 5.5M BTC, 27.4% of total supply - Supply in Profit Excluding Lost Coins: 9.35M BTC, 46.5% of total supply This means roughly 37% of all BTC currently counted as being in profit may come from coins classified as lost or economically inactive. Once we remove them, the picture changes significantly. Traditional Supply in Profit suggests that almost 74% of Bitcoin supply is in profit. But only around 46.5% of the total supply represents Supply in Profit after excluding these Lost Coins. This may give us a very different view of the supply that is actually economically relevant to the market.

In June, I shared this Dogecoin onchain signal highlighting a region historically associated with major market bottoms. Not long after, $DOGE found its bottom. Today, we have the updated chart showing, once again, the value of this type of analysis. This is where onchain data takes crypto asset analysis to another level. In stocks, indices, and many other markets, much of what happens beneath the price remains invisible. On public blockchains, we have transparency into coin movements, holder behavior, profit and loss realization, coin age, flows, network activity, and many other variables. Price shows the outcome. Onchain data helps us understand what is happening underneath it. And when this information is transformed into metrics, models, and signals, we can identify structures that simply do not exist with the same level of transparency in traditional markets. This is one of the greatest sources of Alpha that blockchain has brought to asset analysis. And Alphractal is packed with metrics like these.

⚠️Every time Bitcoin’s 1 to 2 Year Supply rises, price tends to move lower. It’s a classic and fascinating pattern in on-chain analysis. Historically, Bitcoin only regained stronger upside momentum when this same metric started to decline. Being a medium-term holder, roughly holding BTC for up to 3 years, has often been challenging. The strongest conviction seems to come from those holding for more than 4 years. Those are the true long-term holders who survive multiple market cycles without selling. $BTC

The number of Litecoin (LTC) addresses holding between $1M and $10M, as well as those holding more than $10M, has fallen back to levels last seen around the 2022 cycle bottom.

That is an important shift in whale participation. Large holders are significantly less represented than they were during the stronger phases of the cycle.

Historically, similar contractions have appeared during periods of market stress and deep resets. It does not guarantee that LTC has reached a bottom, but it shows that whale activity is now sitting near historically depressed levels.
$LTC #Litecoin

Zcash has entered a region where taking some profits starts to make sense.

Price is now above several important on-chain levels and has also moved significantly higher within the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price, entering a more stretched zone.

Market stress has also reached the second-highest level of the model, which is usually an interesting area to start reducing exposure.

The NUPL remains positive as well, showing that the network is holding a significant amount of unrealized profit.

And there is one more important detail. Addresses holding 100K to 1M $ZEC have started to decline slightly, which is a typical sign of profit-taking by whales.

For those who accumulated much lower, this is already a region worth paying attention to.

#Zcash $ZEC

Will we never see Bitcoin below $40K again?

This is not a prediction. It is simply an interesting observation based on the Balanced Price, a metric that has historically been extremely effective at identifying deep Bitcoin cycle bottoms.

The cumulative time between the main price interactions with this zone has been increasing:

732 days → 1.12K → 1.20K → 1.42K days

The current cycle has already accumulated approximately 1.40K days since the last interaction with the Balanced Price.

There is another interesting detail: the amount of time Bitcoin spends below this metric has also been decreasing. In the early cycles, it stayed below for several weeks, then around 20 days, later even less, and in 2022 the price remained below this zone for practically 1 day.

Today, the Balanced Price is near $38.4K.

Balanced Price adjusts the market’s aggregate cost basis by the long-term spending footprint of older coins, creating a valuation zone that has historically appeared during extreme capitulation periods.

This does not mean Bitcoin needs to return to $38K. The historical evolution itself raises a more interesting question:

What if, at some point, Bitcoin simply stops revisiting the Balanced Price?

On the other hand, if this historical behavior repeats once again, then yes, we would have an on-chain justification for considering the $40K region as a possible capitulation target. Access now! https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=coinmarketcap&utm_medium=update&utm_campaign=founding_access&utm_content=ceo_joao

New video is live.

Crypto narratives change faster than most people realize.
And very often, the reason is simple: price moves first, then the narrative follows.

In this video, I explore crypto sentiment from a different perspective using:
Google Trends
Crypto influencer activity
Number of posts
Fear & Greed Index
Wikipedia interest
Alphractal sentiment metrics
And more

The goal is to understand how attention, conviction and market narratives change depending on price action.
Sometimes the most interesting signal is not what people are saying.
It is when they start saying it.

Watch the full video here:
https://youtu.be/LhTu8OzN7WI

The Realized Cap Impulse is approaching positive territory again, which makes the current setup particularly important. This metric helps track longer-term changes in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization and gives us a view of when capital is starting to circulate more consistently onchain. Historically, one of the more constructive signals has appeared when the indicator stays **above zero for at least two weeks**. When that happens, it has often aligned with a **Bull Market environment**, suggesting that fresh demand is entering and capital is once again supporting the market structure. There is, however, an important risk to consider. In previous cycles, the first attempt to turn positive did not always lead directly to continuation. The **Realized Cap Impulse** has sometimes behaved like resistance. In those cases, Bitcoin either formed a **higher low** before recovering, or moved into another leg lower, as we saw in 2018. That makes the next few days especially relevant for onchain analysis. The key question now is whether the indicator can hold above zero with sustained capital flows, or whether new selling pressure appears and forces another rejection. If it manages to remain positive, that would be a very constructive signal for the broader Bitcoin cycle. Want access to this metric and 1,500+ indicators covering on-chain data, derivatives, liquidations, macro, and market structure? Get 50% OFF Alphractal for a limited time with code BEAR50. https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=coinmarketcap&utm_medium=update&utm_campaign=founding_access&utm_content=ceo_joao

⚠️On-chain spending is still occurring in a profit-dominated regime. So far in this latest bearish cycle, we have not seen large-scale movements at significant losses like we did in 2022, for example. I’m not saying that this will necessarily happen. I’m simply sharing what is happening on the Bitcoin blockchain right now. And the SOPR Trend Signal, which has historically provided excellent medium and long-term buy and sell signals, has still not generated a Bullish Signal. Interestingly, that signal appeared around every major price bottom in the past. So the question we should be asking is: will Bitcoin fall again, or are these types of opportunity signals simply not going to return this time? Given my approach, I prefer to remain patient a little longer before declaring that the Bull Market has already begun, as many are doing. 🔥Take advantage of Alphractal’s free trial! There are probably countless signals waiting for you there. The market is not very forgiving to those who act too early. And yes, the 50% discount is still available this week on any plan. Every plan includes Signals, MCP, Telegram Bot with Alpha AI, Email/Telegram Alerts, Workbench, and a whole universe of tools and insights. https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=coinmarketcap&utm_medium=update&utm_campaign=founding_access&utm_content=ceo_joao

Global M2 is telling an interesting story.

In the last 3 major Bitcoin bear-market cycles, Global M2 YoY falling into negative territory aligned closely with BTC’s price bottom:
2015
2018–2019
2022
Each time, Bitcoin was already near its cycle low as global liquidity growth reached its weakest point.
But today the picture is very different.
Global M2 YoY is still strongly positive at around 8.4%, while Bitcoin is trading near $80K.

If history rhymes, this is a major macro divergence worth watching closely.

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The total market cap of all stablecoins is no longer rising as it did before, similar to what happened toward the end of 2022. Its annual growth rate is also moving toward negative territory, again showing similarities to 2022. Stablecoins are one of the main liquidity engines of the crypto market. They need to be on everyone’s radar. Source: app.alphractal.com

As Bitcoin’s price moves higher, it leaves behind a trail of liquidation levels.

But two levels stand out when looking at open positions from the last 30 days:

$61,000: A region where many traders opened positions while Bitcoin was trading around $65,000 to $68,000.
$57,000: A region where a significant number of traders could be liquidated. Many of these positions were opened around $63,000 to $66,000.

What’s interesting is that these levels also tend to be areas where traders place their stop losses, believing the price is unlikely to reach them.

There are also liquidation levels higher up, around $85,000 to $86,000, but these are mostly linked to positions older than one month. They could also become liquidation targets.

Stay alert.

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