CapitalFlowTech

August payrolls came in at 162,000 against expectations near 53,000, with prior months revised higher. Markets read it as a problem, not a relief; a resilient labour market gives the Fed room to stay restrictive.
The number that matters is downstream.
The 10-year returned straight to the 4.80–4.81% area, a level that has repeatedly capped yields over the past eighteen months.
It tested and pulled back.
Odds of a September hike moved from roughly 52% to 58%.
That is the whole framework right now.
Below that resistance, equities absorb strong data. A confirmed break puts 5% back in view and repricing follows.
A test is not a breakout; the next move decides.
Bitcoin:
In July we published a framework capping $BTC upside at 72–75k ahead of a rollover toward sub-50k, with one stated invalidation:
acceptance above 75k with ETF inflows returning. Both conditions were met; roughly $1.5bn of net August inflows and a break out of the sub-64k range. That framework is withdrawn. We don’t carry a thesis past its own stated invalidation.
The structure now runs off the retracement of the full decline, 126,000 down to 58,115:
23.6% — 74,136
38.2% — 84,047
50% — 92,058
61.8% — 100,068
Price near 79,300 is 31% retraced, sitting almost exactly between the first two.
We treat 83–87k as major resistance, reinforced by the 38.2% landing inside it. Notably, this week’s rally reversed before reaching it. The zone hasn’t been tested yet; that test is the event.
Below, 74,136 is the level that matters. It’s the zone we published in July as resistance, and resistance that flips is what you watch on a pullback.
Why this isn’t a bull call.
Three inflow streaks this year reversed inside two weeks. The bid is concentrated in few vehicles. ETF assets rising from $78.7bn to $98.6bn is almost entirely mark-to-market; price did the work, not new money. $ETH leads on relative flows; breadth outside the majors is thin.
Improved, not resolved. We require acceptance, not a print.
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #Macro #FederalReserve

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🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
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₿ Crypto
BTC
• Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
• Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
• Rejected last week at $4,795.
• Trading today near $4,222.
• Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
• Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
• Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
• This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
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📈 Equities
• S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
• NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
• Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
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💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
• TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
• ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
• BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
• ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
• LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
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🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
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