CapitalFlowTech
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CapitalFlowTech
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Digital Asset Experts since 2017. No leverage, x1. BTC, ETH and large caps. Limit-only. Every position carries a pre-defined exit. Track record since inception.
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The same trade, a third time.For the third time in three weeks, the same trade: Treasuries bought, bitcoin sold.
Brent trades near $112, close to its four-year high of $114.44 from May, on reports that US and Israeli strikes on Iran could resume after the midterms and on attacks claimed against Aramco facilities. Tech sold off again after megacap earnings, with AI spending under scrutiny. Treasuries took the safety bid: the 10-year fell to 5.03% today. $BTC was on the other side of that bid again, and is back near 81,700.
The rates framework has delivered its verdict. Friday's weekly close at 5.08% was the second below the 5.26% close of June 2007. On the framework we published, the 2007 level is now resistance. The 10-year is back near 5%, the level it accepted on 23 September. Markets price a hold at next week's Fed meeting, near 90%, with a December hike still the more likely path.
Bitcoin
$BTC traded up to 84,840 on Wednesday, above 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost on 8 October, then gave the move back within a day. A print is not acceptance. It is the second failed attempt on the level in a week, after the CPI-day rally stalled just beneath it.
Near 81,700, price is 35% retraced on the grid we published. 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, remains the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance above 84,047 is still what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is what changes the structure.
Positioning
Unchanged and balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in $HBAR, $XLM and $AVAX.
Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro #Bonds
The same trade, a third time.
For the third time in three weeks, the same trade: Treasuries bought, bitcoin sold.
Brent trades near $112, close to its four-year high of $114.44 from May, on reports that US and Israeli strikes on Iran could resume after the midterms and on attacks claimed against Aramco facilities. Tech sold off again after megacap earnings, with AI spending under scrutiny. Treasuries took the safety bid: the 10-year fell to 5.03% today. $BTC was on the other side of that bid again, and is back near 81,700.
The rates framework has delivered its verdict. Friday's weekly close at 5.08% was the second below the 5.26% close of June 2007. On the framework we published, the 2007 level is now resistance. The 10-year is back near 5%, the level it accepted on 23 September. Markets price a hold at next week's Fed meeting, near 90%, with a December hike still the more likely path.
Bitcoin
$BTC traded up to 84,840 on Wednesday, above 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost on 8 October, then gave the move back within a day. A print is not acceptance. It is the second failed attempt on the level in a week, after the CPI-day rally stalled just beneath it.
Near 81,700, price is 35% retraced on the grid we published. 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, remains the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance above 84,047 is still what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is what changes the structure.
Positioning
Unchanged and balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in $HBAR, $XLM and $AVAX.
Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro #Bonds
Brent trades near $112, close to its four-year high of $114.44 from May, on reports that US and Israeli strikes on Iran could resume after the midterms and on attacks claimed against Aramco facilities. Tech sold off again after megacap earnings, with AI spending under scrutiny. Treasuries took the safety bid: the 10-year fell to 5.03% today. $BTC was on the other side of that bid again, and is back near 81,700.
The rates framework has delivered its verdict. Friday's weekly close at 5.08% was the second below the 5.26% close of June 2007. On the framework we published, the 2007 level is now resistance. The 10-year is back near 5%, the level it accepted on 23 September. Markets price a hold at next week's Fed meeting, near 90%, with a December hike still the more likely path.
Bitcoin
$BTC traded up to 84,840 on Wednesday, above 84,047, the 38.2% retracement it lost on 8 October, then gave the move back within a day. A print is not acceptance. It is the second failed attempt on the level in a week, after the CPI-day rally stalled just beneath it.
Near 81,700, price is 35% retraced on the grid we published. 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, remains the next reference, about 9% below spot. Acceptance above 84,047 is still what would reopen the 83–87k zone; acceptance above 87k is what changes the structure.
Positioning
Unchanged and balanced. The BTC short, held for several weeks, stands against longs in $HBAR, $XLM and $AVAX.
Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro #Bonds
1
1k
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The retest comes before the print.Friday's weekly close put the 10-year at 5.24%, two basis points below the 5.26% close of June 2007. Below, but not by a margin that amounts to acceptance. It has since traded down to 5.19% and is back near 5.22% today.
Tomorrow's CPI is the next input, and it is mostly an energy print. Consensus looks for headline inflation near 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with core expected to stay close to 2.4%. In August, gasoline was up 27% on the year and energy explained most of the gap between the two. Brent is back above $105, with tanker disruption in the Red Sea.
That gap is what to read tomorrow. A headline jump with core near 2.4% would leave the case for further tightening resting on energy, a supply shock that higher rates do little to address. A core surprise would change that reading. Markets still price a December hike as more likely than not.
For the 10-year, the reference is unchanged. A second weekly close below 5.26% would turn the 2007 level into resistance. Acceptance back above it puts last week's 5.35–5.36% highs back in view.
Bitcoin
On Thursday $BTC lost 84,047, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. From the 80,350 low it has recovered to 83,500, back at the lower edge of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September and just beneath 84,047.
The level we lost is being retested from below, one day before CPI. A retest is not acceptance. Acceptance back above 84,047 would put the zone back in play; rejection here keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is close to balanced. The BTC short remains open against longs in $XLM and $HBAR; HBAR was added on overnight weakness. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: [app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech](https://www.binance.com/square/profile/capitalflowtech)
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Macro #Bonds
The retest comes before the print.
Friday's weekly close put the 10-year at 5.24%, two basis points below the 5.26% close of June 2007. Below, but not by a margin that amounts to acceptance. It has since traded down to 5.19% and is back near 5.22% today.
Tomorrow's CPI is the next input, and it is mostly an energy print. Consensus looks for headline inflation near 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with core expected to stay close to 2.4%. In August, gasoline was up 27% on the year and energy explained most of the gap between the two. Brent is back above $105, with tanker disruption in the Red Sea.
That gap is what to read tomorrow. A headline jump with core near 2.4% would leave the case for further tightening resting on energy, a supply shock that higher rates do little to address. A core surprise would change that reading. Markets still price a December hike as more likely than not.
For the 10-year, the reference is unchanged. A second weekly close below 5.26% would turn the 2007 level into resistance. Acceptance back above it puts last week's 5.35–5.36% highs back in view.
Bitcoin
On Thursday $BTC lost 84,047, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. From the 80,350 low it has recovered to 83,500, back at the lower edge of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September and just beneath 84,047.
The level we lost is being retested from below, one day before CPI. A retest is not acceptance. Acceptance back above 84,047 would put the zone back in play; rejection here keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is close to balanced. The BTC short remains open against longs in $XLM and $HBAR; HBAR was added on overnight weakness. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Macro #Bonds
Tomorrow's CPI is the next input, and it is mostly an energy print. Consensus looks for headline inflation near 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with core expected to stay close to 2.4%. In August, gasoline was up 27% on the year and energy explained most of the gap between the two. Brent is back above $105, with tanker disruption in the Red Sea.
That gap is what to read tomorrow. A headline jump with core near 2.4% would leave the case for further tightening resting on energy, a supply shock that higher rates do little to address. A core surprise would change that reading. Markets still price a December hike as more likely than not.
For the 10-year, the reference is unchanged. A second weekly close below 5.26% would turn the 2007 level into resistance. Acceptance back above it puts last week's 5.35–5.36% highs back in view.
Bitcoin
On Thursday $BTC lost 84,047, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. From the 80,350 low it has recovered to 83,500, back at the lower edge of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September and just beneath 84,047.
The level we lost is being retested from below, one day before CPI. A retest is not acceptance. Acceptance back above 84,047 would put the zone back in play; rejection here keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is close to balanced. The BTC short remains open against longs in $XLM and $HBAR; HBAR was added on overnight weakness. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Macro #Bonds
2
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Article
5% was accepted. 2007 is the testOn 17 September we wrote that the first of our two conditions had not fired: the 10-year had touched 5% and backed away, and a print is not acceptance. Six days later, it accepted.
The 10-year cleared the 2023 high near 5.02% on 23 September and has not closed below 5% since. On the 28th it closed at 5.24%, two basis points under the 5.26% close of June 2007, after an intraday high of 5.274%, the highest since that month. The 30-year reached its highest level since 2002.
That is the transmission our framework was built around, and it is showing up where we said it would. Thirty-year mortgage rates are above 7%. Existing home sales are at a one-year low. The S&P's forward multiple has compressed to 19 from 22. Tightening reaches valuations through the long end, not the policy rate; the long end has now carried what the dot plot signalled. Fed speakers have not softened either: Barr said further increases are likely necessary, and Williams that another hike late this year could be appropriate.
Today brought the first relief. August PCE came in lighter than expected, 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, and the 10-year eased toward 5.22% while the 2-year fell further. That is a pause beneath the 2007 high, not a move away from it.
The 2007 close at 5.26% is now the level. A close above it takes the long end back to the early 2000s. Held below, today's print becomes the first evidence the move is running out. Friday's payrolls are the next test.
Bitcoin
$BTC near 83,500, 37% retraced on the grid we published. Last week it tested 87,000, the top of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September, and was rejected; the rejection coincided with the 10-year's break to a 19-year high. Price has since come back through the zone and now sits just below the 38.2% retracement at 84,047, the first reference we named if the zone failed.
Bitcoin is set to close its best September on record, and all of that gain sits below the level that would change the structure. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the picture. Below 84,047, the next reference is 74,136; the 23.6% retracement and July's resistance.
This week's trades
Profits taken across the short book: ZEC, LINK and the remaining alt shorts closed into target. Same structure each time: a level, confirmation of rejection, a written invalidation, a defined target.
One short remains open. Disclosure: it is a BTC short, held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: [app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech](https://www.binance.com/square/profile/capitalflowtech)
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #Bonds #crypto
5% was accepted. 2007 is the test
On 17 September we wrote that the first of our two conditions had not fired: the 10-year had touched 5% and backed away, and a print is not acceptance. Six days later, it accepted.
The 10-year cleared the 2023 high near 5.02% on 23 September and has not closed below 5% since. On the 28th it closed at 5.24%, two basis points under the 5.26% close of June 2007, after an intraday high of 5.274%, the highest since that month. The 30-year reached its highest level since 2002.
That is the transmission our framework was built around, and it is showing up where we said it would. Thirty-year mortgage rates are above 7%. Existing home sales are at a one-year low. The S&P's forward multiple has compressed to 19 from 22. Tightening reaches valuations through the long end, not the policy rate; the long end has now carried what the dot plot signalled. Fed speakers have not softened either: Barr said further increases are likely necessary, and Williams that another hike late this year could be appropriate.
Today brought the first relief. August PCE came in lighter than expected, 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, and the 10-year eased toward 5.22% while the 2-year fell further. That is a pause beneath the 2007 high, not a move away from it.
The 2007 close at 5.26% is now the level. A close above it takes the long end back to the early 2000s. Held below, today's print becomes the first evidence the move is running out. Friday's payrolls are the next test.
Bitcoin
$BTC near 83,500, 37% retraced on the grid we published. Last week it tested 87,000, the top of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September, and was rejected; the rejection coincided with the 10-year's break to a 19-year high. Price has since come back through the zone and now sits just below the 38.2% retracement at 84,047, the first reference we named if the zone failed.
Bitcoin is set to close its best September on record, and all of that gain sits below the level that would change the structure. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the picture. Below 84,047, the next reference is 74,136; the 23.6% retracement and July's resistance.
This week's trades
Profits taken across the short book: ZEC, LINK and the remaining alt shorts closed into target. Same structure each time: a level, confirmation of rejection, a written invalidation, a defined target.
One short remains open. Disclosure: it is a BTC short, held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #Bonds #crypto
The 10-year cleared the 2023 high near 5.02% on 23 September and has not closed below 5% since. On the 28th it closed at 5.24%, two basis points under the 5.26% close of June 2007, after an intraday high of 5.274%, the highest since that month. The 30-year reached its highest level since 2002.
That is the transmission our framework was built around, and it is showing up where we said it would. Thirty-year mortgage rates are above 7%. Existing home sales are at a one-year low. The S&P's forward multiple has compressed to 19 from 22. Tightening reaches valuations through the long end, not the policy rate; the long end has now carried what the dot plot signalled. Fed speakers have not softened either: Barr said further increases are likely necessary, and Williams that another hike late this year could be appropriate.
Today brought the first relief. August PCE came in lighter than expected, 3.4% headline and 3.0% core, and the 10-year eased toward 5.22% while the 2-year fell further. That is a pause beneath the 2007 high, not a move away from it.
The 2007 close at 5.26% is now the level. A close above it takes the long end back to the early 2000s. Held below, today's print becomes the first evidence the move is running out. Friday's payrolls are the next test.
Bitcoin
$BTC near 83,500, 37% retraced on the grid we published. Last week it tested 87,000, the top of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September, and was rejected; the rejection coincided with the 10-year's break to a 19-year high. Price has since come back through the zone and now sits just below the 38.2% retracement at 84,047, the first reference we named if the zone failed.
Bitcoin is set to close its best September on record, and all of that gain sits below the level that would change the structure. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the picture. Below 84,047, the next reference is 74,136; the 23.6% retracement and July's resistance.
This week's trades
Profits taken across the short book: ZEC, LINK and the remaining alt shorts closed into target. Same structure each time: a level, confirmation of rejection, a written invalidation, a defined target.
One short remains open. Disclosure: it is a BTC short, held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #Bonds #crypto
2
3
4.4k
Article
The market's real variable isn't jobs. It's 4.8%.August payrolls came in at 162,000 against expectations near 53,000, with prior months revised higher. Markets read it as a problem, not a relief; a resilient labour market gives the Fed room to stay restrictive.
The number that matters is downstream.
The 10-year returned straight to the 4.80–4.81% area, a level that has repeatedly capped yields over the past eighteen months.
It tested and pulled back.
Odds of a September hike moved from roughly 52% to 58%.
That is the whole framework right now.
Below that resistance, equities absorb strong data. A confirmed break puts 5% back in view and repricing follows.
A test is not a breakout; the next move decides.
Bitcoin:
In July we published a framework capping $BTC upside at 72–75k ahead of a rollover toward sub-50k, with one stated invalidation:
acceptance above 75k with ETF inflows returning. Both conditions were met; roughly $1.5bn of net August inflows and a break out of the sub-64k range. That framework is withdrawn. We don’t carry a thesis past its own stated invalidation.
The structure now runs off the retracement of the full decline, 126,000 down to 58,115:
23.6% — 74,136
38.2% — 84,047
50% — 92,058
61.8% — 100,068
Price near 79,300 is 31% retraced, sitting almost exactly between the first two.
We treat 83–87k as major resistance, reinforced by the 38.2% landing inside it. Notably, this week’s rally reversed before reaching it. The zone hasn’t been tested yet; that test is the event.
Below, 74,136 is the level that matters. It’s the zone we published in July as resistance, and resistance that flips is what you watch on a pullback.
Why this isn’t a bull call.
Three inflow streaks this year reversed inside two weeks. The bid is concentrated in few vehicles. ETF assets rising from $78.7bn to $98.6bn is almost entirely mark-to-market; price did the work, not new money. $ETH leads on relative flows; breadth outside the majors is thin.
Improved, not resolved. We require acceptance, not a print.
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #Macro #FederalReserve
The market's real variable isn't jobs. It's 4.8%.
August payrolls came in at 162,000 against expectations near 53,000, with prior months revised higher. Markets read it as a problem, not a relief; a resilient labour market gives the Fed room to stay restrictive.
The number that matters is downstream.
The 10-year returned straight to the 4.80–4.81% area, a level that has repeatedly capped yields over the past eighteen months.
It tested and pulled back.
Odds of a September hike moved from roughly 52% to 58%.
That is the whole framework right now.
Below that resistance, equities absorb strong data. A confirmed break puts 5% back in view and repricing follows.
A test is not a breakout; the next move decides.
Bitcoin:
In July we published a framework capping $BTC upside at 72–75k ahead of a rollover toward sub-50k, with one stated invalidation:
acceptance above 75k with ETF inflows returning. Both conditions were met; roughly $1.5bn of net August inflows and a break out of the sub-64k range. That framework is withdrawn. We don’t carry a thesis past its own stated invalidation.
The structure now runs off the retracement of the full decline, 126,000 down to 58,115:
23.6% — 74,136
38.2% — 84,047
50% — 92,058
61.8% — 100,068
Price near 79,300 is 31% retraced, sitting almost exactly between the first two.
We treat 83–87k as major resistance, reinforced by the 38.2% landing inside it. Notably, this week’s rally reversed before reaching it. The zone hasn’t been tested yet; that test is the event.
Below, 74,136 is the level that matters. It’s the zone we published in July as resistance, and resistance that flips is what you watch on a pullback.
Why this isn’t a bull call.
Three inflow streaks this year reversed inside two weeks. The bid is concentrated in few vehicles. ETF assets rising from $78.7bn to $98.6bn is almost entirely mark-to-market; price did the work, not new money. $ETH leads on relative flows; breadth outside the majors is thin.
Improved, not resolved. We require acceptance, not a print.
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #Macro #FederalReserve
The number that matters is downstream.
The 10-year returned straight to the 4.80–4.81% area, a level that has repeatedly capped yields over the past eighteen months.
It tested and pulled back.
Odds of a September hike moved from roughly 52% to 58%.
That is the whole framework right now.
Below that resistance, equities absorb strong data. A confirmed break puts 5% back in view and repricing follows.
A test is not a breakout; the next move decides.
Bitcoin:
In July we published a framework capping $BTC upside at 72–75k ahead of a rollover toward sub-50k, with one stated invalidation:
acceptance above 75k with ETF inflows returning. Both conditions were met; roughly $1.5bn of net August inflows and a break out of the sub-64k range. That framework is withdrawn. We don’t carry a thesis past its own stated invalidation.
The structure now runs off the retracement of the full decline, 126,000 down to 58,115:
23.6% — 74,136
38.2% — 84,047
50% — 92,058
61.8% — 100,068
Price near 79,300 is 31% retraced, sitting almost exactly between the first two.
We treat 83–87k as major resistance, reinforced by the 38.2% landing inside it. Notably, this week’s rally reversed before reaching it. The zone hasn’t been tested yet; that test is the event.
Below, 74,136 is the level that matters. It’s the zone we published in July as resistance, and resistance that flips is what you watch on a pullback.
Why this isn’t a bull call.
Three inflow streaks this year reversed inside two weeks. The bid is concentrated in few vehicles. ETF assets rising from $78.7bn to $98.6bn is almost entirely mark-to-market; price did the work, not new money. $ETH leads on relative flows; breadth outside the majors is thin.
Improved, not resolved. We require acceptance, not a print.
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #Macro #FederalReserve
4
3k
📊 Market & my Portfolio Update – Sept 27, 2025
Macro
• US indices sitting on critical support trendlines. If they break, correction accelerates (S&P -10% risk).
• AI bubble showing cracks → semiconductors are the key proxy.
• Fed’s first cut at all-time highs = red flag, not safety. History shows this usually signals the end of the cycle, not a new leg up.
Crypto
• BTC rejected perfectly at 117.9K (Fib 0.618 + long-term trendline). Broke neckline → roadmap points toward 100K → 96K → 93K, even 90K if momentum extends.
• ETH holding 3,800 support for now, but if it fails, 3,500 is the next magnet.
• Altcoins remain tactical trades only , strong moves but within fragile structures.
My positioning :
• Shorts 17% → BTC & ETH
• Longs 7% → ICP, TIA, HYPE (small tactical exposure)
• Cash 76% → flexibility is king
Takeaway
Markets look euphoric at the top, but history and probabilities point toward correction.
I keep the book light, take profits before round numbers, and size trades only at high-conviction levels.
👉 Discipline, patience, cash.
#MarketPullback #BTC
📊 Market & my Portfolio Update – Sept 27, 2025
Macro
• US indices sitting on critical support trendlines. If they break, correction accelerates (S&P -10% risk).
• AI bubble showing cracks → semiconductors are the key proxy.
• Fed’s first cut at all-time highs = red flag, not safety. History shows this usually signals the end of the cycle, not a new leg up.
Crypto
• BTC rejected perfectly at 117.9K (Fib 0.618 + long-term trendline). Broke neckline → roadmap points toward 100K → 96K → 93K, even 90K if momentum extends.
• ETH holding 3,800 support for now, but if it fails, 3,500 is the next magnet.
• Altcoins remain tactical trades only , strong moves but within fragile structures.
My positioning :
• Shorts 17% → BTC & ETH
• Longs 7% → ICP, TIA, HYPE (small tactical exposure)
• Cash 76% → flexibility is king
Takeaway
Markets look euphoric at the top, but history and probabilities point toward correction.
I keep the book light, take profits before round numbers, and size trades only at high-conviction levels.
👉 Discipline, patience, cash.
#MarketPullback #BTC
Macro
• US indices sitting on critical support trendlines. If they break, correction accelerates (S&P -10% risk).
• AI bubble showing cracks → semiconductors are the key proxy.
• Fed’s first cut at all-time highs = red flag, not safety. History shows this usually signals the end of the cycle, not a new leg up.
Crypto
• BTC rejected perfectly at 117.9K (Fib 0.618 + long-term trendline). Broke neckline → roadmap points toward 100K → 96K → 93K, even 90K if momentum extends.
• ETH holding 3,800 support for now, but if it fails, 3,500 is the next magnet.
• Altcoins remain tactical trades only , strong moves but within fragile structures.
My positioning :
• Shorts 17% → BTC & ETH
• Longs 7% → ICP, TIA, HYPE (small tactical exposure)
• Cash 76% → flexibility is king
Takeaway
Markets look euphoric at the top, but history and probabilities point toward correction.
I keep the book light, take profits before round numbers, and size trades only at high-conviction levels.
👉 Discipline, patience, cash.
#MarketPullback #BTC
137
Market Outlook
Date: 18 August 2025⸻
🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
⸻
₿ Crypto
BTC
• Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
• Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
• Rejected last week at $4,795.
• Trading today near $4,222.
• Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
• Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
• Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
• This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
⸻
📈 Equities
• S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
• NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
• Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
⸻
💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
• TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
• ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
• BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
• ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
• LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
⸻
🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
⸻
Market Outlook Date: 18 August 2025
⸻
🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
⸻
₿ Crypto
BTC
• Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
• Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
• Rejected last week at $4,795.
• Trading today near $4,222.
• Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
• Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
• Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
• This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
⸻
📈 Equities
• S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
• NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
• Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
⸻
💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
• TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
• ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
• BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
• ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
• LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
⸻
🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
⸻
🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
⸻
₿ Crypto
BTC
• Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
• Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
• Rejected last week at $4,795.
• Trading today near $4,222.
• Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
• Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
• Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
• This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
⸻
📈 Equities
• S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
• NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
• Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
⸻
💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
• TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
• ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
• BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
• ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
• LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
⸻
🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
⸻
164
📉 Market Update – July 24, 2025
BTC | Equities | Macro | Sentiment
🧠 Crypto Outlook
BTC remains technically overextended. We’re still near ATH levels, open interest is high, and funding rates remain stretched. On daily TF, the topping tail and mature bear flag are intact. A flush to $113–115K would be healthy and offer better R/R entries.
💡 My view:
We’re tactically short BTC — this isn’t a long-term bearish call, just managing asymmetry.
🧊 Macro uncertainty + overpositioning = fade the euphoric long crowd.
If proven wrong, I’ll flip fast. Risk > ego.
📊 Equities – Divergence Ahead?
• S&P 500 at top of rising channel (~6400), RSI stretched. Needs a pullback.
• Nasdaq is rangebound, semiconductors (SMH) failing breakout attempts.
• Russell 2000 shows relative strength — money rotating into small caps?
🎭 Earnings Paradox
Even double beats (IBM, TSLA, AAL) are getting sold off. Why?
➡️ Forward guidance is either weak or absent. Market is pricing future softness.
Stay selective. This is a reaction-driven tape.
⚖️ Watchlist Highlights
• PDD: Inverse H&S, neckline retest could be an opportunity
• GOOGL: Looks strong post-earnings, could continue
• Meme stocks like AEO are getting flows but trade with discipline
📉 Commodities
Gold rejected from trendline, back inside wedge. Silver + Oil fading.
Natural Gas = bounce or breakdown zone.
🧭 Conclusion
Short-term: Caution warranted.
Mid-term: High-probability pullback incoming in both crypto & equities.
The setup screams “de-risking phase.”
Stay tactical. Stay patient.
#CryptoStrategy #MarketUpdate
#BTCShort
#RiskManagement
#MacroOutlook
📉 Market Update – July 24, 2025
BTC | Equities | Macro | Sentiment
🧠 Crypto Outlook
BTC remains technically overextended. We’re still near ATH levels, open interest is high, and funding rates remain stretched. On daily TF, the topping tail and mature bear flag are intact. A flush to $113–115K would be healthy and offer better R/R entries.
💡 My view:
We’re tactically short BTC — this isn’t a long-term bearish call, just managing asymmetry.
🧊 Macro uncertainty + overpositioning = fade the euphoric long crowd.
If proven wrong, I’ll flip fast. Risk > ego.
📊 Equities – Divergence Ahead?
• S&P 500 at top of rising channel (~6400), RSI stretched. Needs a pullback.
• Nasdaq is rangebound, semiconductors (SMH) failing breakout attempts.
• Russell 2000 shows relative strength — money rotating into small caps?
🎭 Earnings Paradox
Even double beats (IBM, TSLA, AAL) are getting sold off. Why?
➡️ Forward guidance is either weak or absent. Market is pricing future softness.
Stay selective. This is a reaction-driven tape.
⚖️ Watchlist Highlights
• PDD: Inverse H&S, neckline retest could be an opportunity
• GOOGL: Looks strong post-earnings, could continue
• Meme stocks like AEO are getting flows but trade with discipline
📉 Commodities
Gold rejected from trendline, back inside wedge. Silver + Oil fading.
Natural Gas = bounce or breakdown zone.
🧭 Conclusion
Short-term: Caution warranted.
Mid-term: High-probability pullback incoming in both crypto & equities.
The setup screams “de-risking phase.”
Stay tactical. Stay patient.
#CryptoStrategy #MarketUpdate
#BTCShort
#RiskManagement
#MacroOutlook
BTC | Equities | Macro | Sentiment
🧠 Crypto Outlook
BTC remains technically overextended. We’re still near ATH levels, open interest is high, and funding rates remain stretched. On daily TF, the topping tail and mature bear flag are intact. A flush to $113–115K would be healthy and offer better R/R entries.
💡 My view:
We’re tactically short BTC — this isn’t a long-term bearish call, just managing asymmetry.
🧊 Macro uncertainty + overpositioning = fade the euphoric long crowd.
If proven wrong, I’ll flip fast. Risk > ego.
📊 Equities – Divergence Ahead?
• S&P 500 at top of rising channel (~6400), RSI stretched. Needs a pullback.
• Nasdaq is rangebound, semiconductors (SMH) failing breakout attempts.
• Russell 2000 shows relative strength — money rotating into small caps?
🎭 Earnings Paradox
Even double beats (IBM, TSLA, AAL) are getting sold off. Why?
➡️ Forward guidance is either weak or absent. Market is pricing future softness.
Stay selective. This is a reaction-driven tape.
⚖️ Watchlist Highlights
• PDD: Inverse H&S, neckline retest could be an opportunity
• GOOGL: Looks strong post-earnings, could continue
• Meme stocks like AEO are getting flows but trade with discipline
📉 Commodities
Gold rejected from trendline, back inside wedge. Silver + Oil fading.
Natural Gas = bounce or breakdown zone.
🧭 Conclusion
Short-term: Caution warranted.
Mid-term: High-probability pullback incoming in both crypto & equities.
The setup screams “de-risking phase.”
Stay tactical. Stay patient.
#CryptoStrategy #MarketUpdate
#BTCShort
#RiskManagement
#MacroOutlook
1
102
📊 Market Check – July 14, 2025
BTC hit $123K today, with USDT dominance at 4.22%, getting very close to the triple-bottom zone we’ve been tracking (historical bottoms in March 2024 and Jan 2025). A quick spike to or below 4% remains possible before a reversal.
On the combined USDT+USDC dominance, the key support zone is 5.27% to 5.00%, with major trendline convergence—this adds confluence to the idea of a final BTC push towards $130–140K before a cycle reversal.
Meanwhile, alts remain stuck near their lows. This divergence between BTC and alts increases the risk of a harsh correction across the board once BTC retraces.
Stock indices are also overextended after the April 7 pivot/bottom. Institutional profit-taking seems imminent.
⸻
🧮 Macro Focus (July 15–18):
• Tuesday 15 – US Core CPI
Expected at +0.3% MoM. If confirmed, it keeps annual core inflation around 3.0%.
Fed is likely to hold in July (95% probability). Markets will price in September instead.
• Wednesday 16 – Core PPI
Still elevated producer prices would reinforce inflation stickiness → less room for rate cuts.
• Friday 18 – Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
If sentiment is weak while expectations stay elevated, that’s typically risk-off for stocks and crypto.
⸻
🎯 My View:
Markets are near macro + technical exhaustion. The confluence of BTC dominance, low alt engagement, and upcoming inflation data points to one last spike before a larger correction. We are prepared.
Stay alert. Discipline > Prediction.
#bitcoin #InstitutionalInvestment #stockmarkets
📊 Market Check – July 14, 2025
BTC hit $123K today, with USDT dominance at 4.22%, getting very close to the triple-bottom zone we’ve been tracking (historical bottoms in March 2024 and Jan 2025). A quick spike to or below 4% remains possible before a reversal.
On the combined USDT+USDC dominance, the key support zone is 5.27% to 5.00%, with major trendline convergence—this adds confluence to the idea of a final BTC push towards $130–140K before a cycle reversal.
Meanwhile, alts remain stuck near their lows. This divergence between BTC and alts increases the risk of a harsh correction across the board once BTC retraces.
Stock indices are also overextended after the April 7 pivot/bottom. Institutional profit-taking seems imminent.
⸻
🧮 Macro Focus (July 15–18):
• Tuesday 15 – US Core CPI
Expected at +0.3% MoM. If confirmed, it keeps annual core inflation around 3.0%.
Fed is likely to hold in July (95% probability). Markets will price in September instead.
• Wednesday 16 – Core PPI
Still elevated producer prices would reinforce inflation stickiness → less room for rate cuts.
• Friday 18 – Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
If sentiment is weak while expectations stay elevated, that’s typically risk-off for stocks and crypto.
⸻
🎯 My View:
Markets are near macro + technical exhaustion. The confluence of BTC dominance, low alt engagement, and upcoming inflation data points to one last spike before a larger correction. We are prepared.
Stay alert. Discipline > Prediction.
#bitcoin #InstitutionalInvestment #stockmarkets
BTC hit $123K today, with USDT dominance at 4.22%, getting very close to the triple-bottom zone we’ve been tracking (historical bottoms in March 2024 and Jan 2025). A quick spike to or below 4% remains possible before a reversal.
On the combined USDT+USDC dominance, the key support zone is 5.27% to 5.00%, with major trendline convergence—this adds confluence to the idea of a final BTC push towards $130–140K before a cycle reversal.
Meanwhile, alts remain stuck near their lows. This divergence between BTC and alts increases the risk of a harsh correction across the board once BTC retraces.
Stock indices are also overextended after the April 7 pivot/bottom. Institutional profit-taking seems imminent.
⸻
🧮 Macro Focus (July 15–18):
• Tuesday 15 – US Core CPI
Expected at +0.3% MoM. If confirmed, it keeps annual core inflation around 3.0%.
Fed is likely to hold in July (95% probability). Markets will price in September instead.
• Wednesday 16 – Core PPI
Still elevated producer prices would reinforce inflation stickiness → less room for rate cuts.
• Friday 18 – Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
If sentiment is weak while expectations stay elevated, that’s typically risk-off for stocks and crypto.
⸻
🎯 My View:
Markets are near macro + technical exhaustion. The confluence of BTC dominance, low alt engagement, and upcoming inflation data points to one last spike before a larger correction. We are prepared.
Stay alert. Discipline > Prediction.
#bitcoin #InstitutionalInvestment #stockmarkets
29
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