蔡大哥投资日记

2026-01-14.
The tutorial on how to apply for a Hong Kong bank card published last month is still not fully understood by many people. Today, I'll describe the detailed guide.
Zhong'an Bank in Hong Kong can be applied for with just a Hong Kong-Macao Pass, ID card, and entry/exit records, as long as you are physically in Hong Kong.
1. Download the Zhong'an Bank APP in advance.
2. After entering Hong Kong, click on online account opening.
3. Take photos of both sides of your Hong Kong-Macao Pass.
4. Take photos of both sides of your mainland China ID card.
5. Prepare a mainland China bank card.
6. Fill in your residential address. (An address in mainland China is acceptable.)
7. Open a Hong Kong and US stock investor account.

September 30, 2026.
The overall market has pulled back.
I hold 6 layers of positions, with BNB and OKB each allocated 3 portions. The average entry price for my BNB position is 710, and the average entry price for my OKB position is 110 USD.
For this pullback, I will add some more positions at that time.
But in my mind, I have two allocation plans:
Option 1: BNB/OKB — configure in a 4:4 ratio.
Option 2: BNB/OKB/GT — configure in a 3:3:2 ratio.
At the current stage, there’s no rush to buy.
I already have 60% of my positions. I can accept it regardless of whether it goes up or down.
Wait until the end of October. If BNB and OKB only experience a small pullback, then consider a 3:3:2 allocation of BNB/OKB/GT.
If there’s an opportunity for a big pullback, then allocate BNB/OKB in a 4:4 ratio.

September 29, 2026.
For this market cycle, if BNB and OKB don’t rise much, the pullback won’t be very deep either—you can hold steady and wait for the next wave.
But copycats are different.
Even if this cycle doesn’t rise much, because there’s no value backing it, it will still drop very sharply—fall back to the original point or even break to new lows.
It’s basically a 20%~30% pullback in BNB and OKB.
Most copycats will drop by 50%~70%.
Don’t even talk about breaking the historical previous high in the future.
Even this year’s peak, I’m afraid, will be hard to reach.
The most important thing in investing is risk control. Only after that should you talk about returns—especially when dealing with copycats whose price can drop without limits.
What you should learn first is to keep your distance.

September 26, 2026.
Coins that are resilient in a bear market often perform strongly in a bull market.
For example, in the 2018 bear market, BNB was more resilient than the overall market, and then delivered an outstanding performance in the 2019 bull market.
For example, in the 2022 bear market, OKB managed to move through the bear cycle, and then showed astonishing performance again in early 2023.
In the 2026 bear market, each coin’s resilience test:
BNB, has not fallen below the 2025 low of $500.
OKB, has not fallen below the 2025 low of $38.
Bitcoin: breaks below the 2025 low of $74,508, and the price returns to the 2024 support.
ETH, continuously breaks below the 2-year support, and returns to the 2023 support.
LTC, continuously breaks below the 5-year support, and returns to the 20-year support.

September 20, 2026.
BNB and OKB; this rally isn’t very strong.
Many altcoins outperform them in the short term, but when you stretch the timeframe, most altcoins will fall back to their original levels or break below the lows.
In investing, the most important issue is choosing the right coins.
If you choose right, it will lift over the long term—after two years you could make 200% returns.
If you choose wrong, it’ll be a big rise and a big drop—after two years you might still be at a loss.
Slow is fast.
Steady progress matters more than moving fast.
If you’re going to buy, buy coins that are slightly stronger than the overall market—ones that are subtle: subtly and slightly stronger over the long term, but not very obvious; outperform the market with a tiny edge over time.
Too strong, too much attention from the market—easy to reach the extreme and then reverse.

September 17, 2026.
Many people in the group have started rushing in.
My goal this year is also just one: to DCA into BNB and OKB, and hold a full position by the end of the year.
My goal this year is only one thing.
“Buy, buy, keep buying.”
This year, there has been no selling—only buying.
The buying period continues until the end of the year.
Only after the price starts up from the lowest point and spirals upward for 24 to 36 months will we consider exiting the large position.
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(09/17, 26) Big Brother Cai’s Daily Insight:
When you look at the market from a long-term cycle perspective, you’ll gain a god’s-eye view.

September 14, 2026.
Now, those in cash generally all expect a major market crash.
For example: predict that a clear bill won’t be passed, then expect a sudden plunge; predict a September rate hike, then expect a sudden plunge; predict bad employment data, then expect the market to plunge sharply.
Every time a piece of information comes in, it’s unconsciously interpreted as a crisis.
Even so, reality may not be like that.
But people who are in cash hope the market behaves this way.
When I was in cash for a while, I did the same thing—treating every piece of bad news as the spark that triggers a plunge.
After setting up periodic purchases of BNB/OKB, I no longer predict a short-term crash.
Some even believe Bitcoin will crash massively.
BNB and OKB also hold up relatively well during dips.

September 12, 2026.
This mistake was simply the fantasy of trying to catch the absolute bottom.
In the end, it looked like OKB was fine: from $60, it rose to $65, then to above $70, then to above $80, and eventually to $100.
Always wanting to buy at a double-bottom entry—but it ended up soaring all the way.
As long as one's mindset is mature, one wouldn’t obsess over whether short-term gains are dozens of percentage points up or down. Maybe just $70–$80 is enough to get on the trade.
Sometimes you want to buy at the lowest point, but your actual cost ends up being higher instead.
Thinking back to the last round of buying OKB, I also wasn’t buying at the very lowest point.
OKB’s lowest point at the end of 2024 was $30. My DCA average price was $46—more than 50% higher than the bottom.

September 10, 2026.
In past bear-market cycles, very few coins showed independent market moves. In general, the whole market mostly moved down with Bitcoin like silt.
In this bear market, many coins are resistant to declines and some have been rising independently.
This is an abnormal phenomenon never seen in past bear markets.
HYPE and ZEC are both rising against the trend. In the bear market, they keep hitting new highs. Meanwhile, OKB, TRX, and XMR are also unusually resistant to drops even in the bear market.
Maybe the four-year cycle still has some reference value for Bitcoin.
By the end of the year, you may still be able to position into relatively cheap BTC.
But for undervalued coins, the impact is becoming weaker and weaker—sometimes even nonexistent. The overall direction is still up.

September 7, 2026.
I invest in BNB because I judge that it can remain within the top 5 in market cap and bring me defensive returns during the bull market cycle.
I invest in OKB because I judge that its market cap is undervalued, and in the future it can break into the top 20, bringing me excess returns.
I关注GT because I judge that its current market cap ranking of 56 is a bit low; it should be ranked alongside BGB, within the top 30 to 40 by market cap.
I do not invest in Bitcoin.
It is judged that Bitcoin's gains in each bull market are diminishing. In this bull market, it will continue to be cut in half one or two times compared with the previous bull market, with lower gains.
I do not invest in ZEC.
Not to mention whether it deserves to stay at rank 11, the monthly gains alone are too high, and the downside room is far greater than that of platform coins.

September 6, 2026.
Recently, many coins in the market have surged wildly, dazzling to see, but over time many altcoins cannot withstand the test of time.
In the next pullback, many coins will fall back to where they started.
In 2027 many coins will fall back to where they started, in 2028 many coins will fall back to where they started, and in 2029 many coins will fall back to where they started.
Only a small number of coins will keep making higher tops and higher bottoms.
To survive through market cycles, real value is needed. Any coin without user support will fall back just as quickly as it rose.
Don't chase altcoins as they rise.
Don't chase garbage as it rises.
Long-term investment requires buying down-to-earth assets.

September 5, 2026.
Previously, I bought 20% each of BNB and OKB, and started dollar-cost averaging.
Plan to keep dollar-cost averaging until the end of the year to complete the position build-up.
Right now my position is only a little over 40%.
Average cost of OKB: $110.3, average cost of BNB: $701.
By the end of the year, the average cost may be pushed up a bit, or pulled down a bit, but that’s all just minor details.
The important thing is to consistently stick to your goals.
And go through countless “local pullbacks” + “local highs.”
Investing takes time, and it also takes patience.
Even if other coins are seeing big gains, don’t chase them.
Maybe the coins you hold will all be “local highs” this year, and only see major gains next year or later, but you must resist the temptation.