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On October 26, Bitcoin pulled back to around 79,350 on Monday, completing the long trade. It is now rebounding around 80,300. Depending on market conditions, take profit if it rebounds to around 81,400–81,800.
茶友会_水哥
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On the weekend of October 24, Bitcoin is holding around 80,600–81,000. Open two trades:
Buy near 79,500–79,700, with a stop-loss at 79,000; take profit on the rebound near 81,900.
Sell short near 82,600–82,200, with a stop-loss at 83,100; take profit near 80,500.
Have you opened a short? A stop-loss at 84150 is fine.
茶友会_水哥
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The market pullback on October 20
BTC is consolidating, with a breakout level currently around 83100. Consider opening short positions around 83400–83600, and long positions near the bottom around 80800.
I just received it, so I'll leave it blank for now.
茶友会_水哥
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On October 19, BTC kept trying to break above 83000. For now, you can consider opening a short position around 83100–83300, with a stop-loss at 83460 if the price breaks above it.
On October 19, BTC kept trying to break above 83000. For now, you can consider opening a short position around 83100–83300, with a stop-loss at 83460 if the price breaks above it.
First bear market: The market bottomed in November 2011 Second bear market: The market bottomed in January 2015 Third bear market: The market bottomed in December 2018 Fourth bear market: The market bottomed in November 2022
When will this cycle bottom? You can consider entering once the U.S. has raised interest rates five or six times.
$BTC Tonight, Bitcoin is unlikely to break above 82500–82800. Set a stop-loss at 83168 and open a small short around here, aiming to capture the pullback to around 80900. #美国加息
$BTC Tonight, Bitcoin is unlikely to break above 82500–82800. Set a stop-loss at 83168 and open a small short around here, aiming to capture the pullback to around 80900. #美国加息
The core of my bearish thesis is not simply technical analysis, but changes in macroeconomic policy and liquidity in the crypto market.
1. The U.S. midterm elections are adding uncertainty to the market. The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and policy expectations and market sentiment may fluctuate.
2. Global interest rate pressures may persist. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. If inflation persists, policy divergence among major central banks and a high-interest-rate environment could both weigh on risk asset valuations.
3. RWA is changing the flow of funds in the crypto market. Some funds are being allocated to traditional financial products through tokenized assets, but it remains uncertain whether those funds will truly flow back into USDT and re-enter BTC and ETH. Liquidity in the crypto market does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
My price outlook:
BTC: $86,000 could be the cyclical high for this phase. The next key level to watch is $57,000; if macro risks intensify, a drop to $30,000 cannot be ruled out.
ETH: Around $2,800 could be the cyclical high for this phase. I’ll be watching $1,400, and around $1,000 in an extreme scenario.
Conclusion: If high interest rates persist, risk appetite declines, and the crypto market lacks fresh inflows, BTC and ETH could still face a deeper correction.
This is my personal market outlook, not a prediction of a certain outcome. The key is not to guess the top, but to watch whether interest rates, fund flows, and key support levels continue to deteriorate.