Bnb_wizard

PONS - WAIT, don't market buy the breakdown
Setup picked: Liquidity-sweep watch (short-side breakdown in progress, long only on sweep-reclaim). Range-MSB state = WAIT - no sweep/reclaim yet, 4H just broke down on 2.1x volume.
- Daily = INSUFFICIENT DATA (28 bars, fresh listing, no weekly bias). 4H box valid (166 bars), 1H trigger history valid (661 bars).
The plan:
- Price now 0.5928 (mark 0.5925) = mid-lower breakdown, below all 4H/1H EMAs. Chasing shorts into strong BTC is crowded, catching the knife long has no trigger.
- Buy zone 0.5650-0.5815 (why: 09-19 daily low 0.56427 + today 4H wick low 0.58147 sweep area). Below 20-day mid 0.6928, lower third of range.
- Trigger only after: sweep of 0.58147-0.5650 then H1 close back above 0.5950. Start 1/3, add full size on 4H reclaim above 0.6200. No trigger = no trade.
- Alt breakout only if: 4H closes above 0.6500 with volume, then retest 0.6400-0.6500 as support, targets 0.6695 then 0.7309.
Stop / Targets (from mid-zone 0.5730):
- Hard stop 0.5490 (under 09-16 low 0.54800, give it buffer)
- TP1 0.6200 (breakdown origin + prior 4H base) take 50% - R about 2.0
- TP2 0.6520-0.6695 (prevDayPx 0.65237 + 20-bar 4H high) take rest - R about 3.3-4.0
- Leave original stop after TP1, trail only if declared before
When we're wrong (close basis, wicks don't count):
- H4 close below 0.5650 kills idea - cut to 30%
- D1 close below 0.5480 flip bias, stand aside
- BTC D1 close below 81250 (EMA21) = cut alts, BTC leads
- For reclaim trade: 4H close back below 0.5950 after reclaim = failed, close rest
Why wait: funding neutral 0.00125%/hr, premium flat 0.0, OI about 103.9M $PONS (about $61M) - no squeeze either way. BTC D1 uptrend (84472 over EMA9 83488/EMA21 81250, RSI 65) allows alts, but $PONS 4H RSI 34 / 1H RSI 32 with breakdown volume = momentum down, no reclaim print yet. Chart drawn from live 4H candles at posted levels #write2earn