TVBee

Soul Question:

Which is more difficult to watch, Ether or the Spring Festival Gala?

Does the Spring Festival market talked about by some KOLs really exist?

Last year, New Year's Eve was on January 28, and it peaked on January 20, staying there for a few days before starting to decline on January 31.

As long as more than two rounds of patterns are discovered, it will be ahead...

Finally, there is some good news！！！

The overall CPI monthly rate is lower than expected and lower than the previous value.
The overall CPI annual rate is lower than expected and significantly lower than the previous value.
The overall CPI index is slightly higher than the previous value, and generally, the CPI index tends to rise, so this is quite good.

The core CPI monthly rate meets expectations but is slightly higher than the previous value by 0.1 percentage points,
The core CPI annual rate meets expectations and is lower than the previous value.
The core CPI index is higher than the previous value, which is a normal increase.

Overall, the CPI data is good, and the overall CPI annual rate, as the main inflation indicator, at 2.4% is very close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

In fact, compared to non-farm data, the CPI data is more important. Because even if employment data is better than expected, it is not high compared to historical non-farm employment data.

Moreover, the Treasury Department/Trump needs to lower interest rates to reduce the Federal Reserve's interest.

So, as long as the CPI allows, interest rates will be lowered.

A rapid decline in CPI can allow the Federal Reserve to reach the CPI 2% target earlier and start monetary easing sooner.

Non-farm data, not a single good news!

The unemployment rate is lower than expected and below the previous value.
Non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations and are higher than the previous value.
The year-on-year and month-on-month wage growth exceeded expectations, which may affect CPI.
The labor participation rate also exceeded expectations and is higher than the previous value.

Employment in the United States has not continued to deteriorate, and wages are somewhat above expectations.
Recession and interest rate cuts are further away from us...

Only the consumption confidence index for January is declining, and we dare not comment on this data from the United States.

A truly good article is not what is commonly referred to as a "good article"!

A truly good article makes people feel after reading it:

This coin is good,
This reasoning is correct,
This content is useful, interesting, or resonates with them...

A truly good article has no traces of being polished!

If after reading an article, the only feeling others have is that the article is well-written, then this article is definitely not a good article!

On February 9, MegaETH was launched, and debridge has supported cross-chain for MegaETH.

Since its launch, $94,865.46 has flowed out from MegaETH through deBridge, and $242,756.91 has flowed into MegaETH through deBridge.

In less than 2 days, deBridge has brought a net inflow of $147,891.45 to MegaETH.

Future Finance (WLFI) airdrops, there’s always one that suits you!

WLFI+USD1 has continuously launched 4 major events in the Binance ecosystem, which can be said that everyone can participate and everyone has the opportunity to make money.

┈┈➤ First type of event: Financial Management

In this type of event, users only need to hold USD1, transfer it to financial management, or hold USD1 in the contract account to participate.

The 1st event with capital preservation and profit has ended, with an annualized return rate of up to 20%.

The 2nd event is currently ongoing, it has already been 2 weeks since it ended, and there’s less than 2 weeks left, with an estimated annualized return rate of around 15%.

This type of event is suitable for friends with large capital, exchange it for USD1, and then transfer it to the U-denominated contract account to earn passively.

┈┈➤ Second type of event: Trading

Using USD1 to participate in designated trading pairs can earn points. Based on the points, rewards can be shared.

This type of event is suitable for friends with time, you can look for stable market conditions, earn points, and share WLFI.

┈┈➤ Third type of event: Live Broadcast

Live broadcasts related to WLFI USD1 are conducted in Binance Square, @mscryptojiayi plus Goddess, rewards will be given based on the content of the live broadcast and the number of audience.

Brother Bee just received a reward of 230USD1, thanks to Goddess Jia.

直播：拆解总统的加密蓝图 WLFI+USD1

Influential and expressive friends can give it a try.

Brother Bee kindly reminds you to prepare a PPT with care, conduct a well-organized and high-quality live broadcast, and pair it with some red envelopes for better effects.

Judgment of the Two Foolish Ideas at the Bottom

The first wrong idea is the刻舟 cycle, which rigidly states the cycle is 4 years and claims we are now at the beginning of a bear market.

From October 10th until now, it has already dropped for 4 months; can this be called the beginning of a bear market?!

The correct刻舟 should involve some technical indicators, such as EMA, RSI, etc.?!

Currently, the EMA and RSI are in a bear market, similar to the state in May-June 2022 and October 2018.

This round of rhythm is clearly ahead of schedule and accelerating. Therefore, the remaining bear market time may not be too long. If we only consider the U.S. cycle, after Walsh takes office in the second half of the year, it should be relatively loose, and the bear market may end around June-July. However, considering Japan's monetary policy, we cannot rule out the possibility of the bear market lasting until September-October.

The second wrong idea is calculating price retracement, directly calculating retracement based on BTC price.

When BTC reaches 1 million in the future, can we directly calculate retracement based on the price?!

The correct calculation of retracement should be based on the magnitude of the increase when calculating the retracement magnitude?!

In the past, calculating retracement could be done directly on the highest price because the starting point was too low.

From 2014 to 2017, BTC rose from 172 to 19665, 172 can of course be ignored,
From 2018 to 2021, BTC rose from 3217 to 67617, 3217 actually cannot be ignored,
From 2022 to 2025, BTC rose from 15742 to 124773.5, 15742 really cannot be ignored.

If we calculate BTC dropping from 124773.5 to 60000, it would be approximately only a 52% drop, which would make people feel that BTC still has a large drop space.

However, if we calculate BTC rising from 15742 to 124773.5, then dropping to 60000:

(124773.5-60000)/(124773.5-15742)=59.4%

So, BTC has actually dropped by about 60%, so the space for BTC to continue dropping may not be very large.

Of course, whether analyzing the cycle or the price retracement magnitude, 60000 cannot be determined as the bottom of this bear market.

It is just that the wrong analysis method leads people to mistakenly believe that the bear market will last for a long time and that the drop will be significant.

In fact, this round of cycles is ahead of schedule and accelerating, leaving little time for the bear market and not much room for BTC's drop.

The market will always harvest two types of people!

The first type is the greedy ones.

The second type is the unwilling ones.

A friend of Brother Bee is quite greedy. The AI Agent made 2 million (RMB) in one wave, but he was greedy and didn't sell. It dropped to 1 million, and Brother Bee advised him to sell, but he still didn't sell, always thinking about the 2 million. In the end, it dropped to 200,000, and he sold because if he didn't sell, he would start to lose.

In a recent wave of MEME market, he made another 50,000 dollars, and Brother Bee advised him to sell, but he didn't listen. Then it dropped to 30,000 dollars in profit, and Brother Bee told him, this is just like when you had 1 million, sell it. He still didn't listen, and in the end, he sold at 15,000.

Brother Bee's original plan was to wait for the tariff resolution between China and the U.S. and if there was no improvement, he would cut losses, but he couldn't let go, so he watched his assets continuously decline.

Until Trump claimed to impose tariffs on Europe, he actually knew it would drop, but he still held a glimmer of hope and didn't cut. At that time, it was Sunday night, ETH at 3300.

Until the end of January, Brother Bee decisively cleared out all coins except Bitcoin, barely avoiding this drop, but he still lost a total of 50% in altcoins and Ethereum. If he had cut losses in October, he could have lost much less.

In the middle of the night, I drew a divination stick for the pancake.

I drew the 35th stick, which is a neutral sign, meaning primarily — difficult first, easy later.

Applied to the pancake, it means first a drop, then a rise, and indeed it dropped during the day.

The divine machine also shows: Seeking wealth → Good, Trading → Beneficial

Could it mean that it’s possible to buy at the bottom?

Empiricism is really harmful!

In 21 years, there was no vision.
After 25 years, realizing the pain, there was vision for a year.

How many people are like Brother Bee?

Some say Powell is about interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction.

But Powell is about infrequent rate cuts + mild balance sheet reduction.

Waller is expected to have a greater degree of rate cuts to align with Trump’s interest rate cuts on the Federal Reserve's yield.

As for the extent of balance sheet reduction, it cannot be determined at this time. It is speculated that Waller will be about frequent rate cuts + mild to moderate balance sheet reduction.

In any case, Waller's rate cuts cater to Trump, and Waller's balance sheet reduction aligns with the Federal Reserve. Let's assume he takes office first... this is the difference between understanding political tactics and academic economics.😂

The market likes to find reasons for the decline

◆ The Bitcoin may just be a line drawn by the big players at the end of the month,

◆ The decline in US stocks may be due to the Federal Reserve being more hawkish than expected in the future, which is related to Wat.

◆ The decline in gold is due to weakened inflation expectations, which is also related to Wat. Another direct reason is that exchanges have increased the margin ratio for gold and silver.

Another common influence is that the US government has shut down again. The differences and contradictions between the two parties are quite large.

In fact, all these are surface-level reasons, direct causes; the fundamental reason lies elsewhere:

◆ The fundamental reason for Bitcoin's decline is insufficient liquidity + expectations of a four-year cycle; 2026 is expected to be a bear market, and the decline from 2018 to 2022 to 2026 is actually a speed-up in the rate of decline,

◆ The fundamental reason for the decline in US stocks is also liquidity; the year-on-year growth rate of US M2 is declining, and there must be money to buy for prices to rise, if it can't rise, it will fall.

◆ The fundamental reason for the decline in gold is that its speculative nature is too strong, causing it to deviate from its property of preserving and increasing value in the short term. Of course, there may also be liquidity factors at play.