Pai
296 Posts
Pai
我的故事要从2012年比特币显卡矿机说起 交易员｜BTC | 美股｜Ai｜
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Ripped it up—no one believes
Yesterday 62.7, now 64.5—the price has passed the top edge of the box.
The long/short ratio fell from 2.2 to 1.5 in one day.
Price is rising, yet everyone is actually short.
The less anyone believes, the better the show.
I’m waiting to see how this batch of shorts gets squeezed.
Yesterday 62.7, now 64.5—the price has passed the top edge of the box.
The long/short ratio fell from 2.2 to 1.5 in one day.
Price is rising, yet everyone is actually short.
The less anyone believes, the better the show.
I’m waiting to see how this batch of shorts gets squeezed.
Bought for a whole year, and then brought it back
Paul Tudor Jones disclosed that he bought back over the weekend
UBS’s BTC call options—added by 24x
The price is stuck around 63K, unmoving for a week
Money underneath is quietly shifting
I’m betting this range will eventually break upward
Paul Tudor Jones disclosed that he bought back over the weekend
UBS’s BTC call options—added by 24x
The price is stuck around 63K, unmoving for a week
Money underneath is quietly shifting
I’m betting this range will eventually break upward
Paul Tudor Jones sold a BTC ETF for a year and now has bought it back
UBS increased its long options position by 24 times
This week, the ETF also saw two consecutive outflows
Small money is running, big money is picking up
Positions don’t lie; sentiment will
UBS increased its long options position by 24 times
This week, the ETF also saw two consecutive outflows
Small money is running, big money is picking up
Positions don’t lie; sentiment will
AI faith has slimmed down this week
AVGO down 8%, NVDA almost unchanged
Money only willing to stay with the big boss
When AVGO fell this round, I pored over it for a long time
No earnings report, no scandal
Just being slowly sold through
A drop without reason is scarier than one with a reason
With a reason: bad news is already priced in
Without a reason: someone ran first
The basket of AI has narrowed to just one remaining star—NVIDIA
The market calls this “safe.” I call it “fragile.”
I won’t add to my position with this kind of move
NVIDIA sneezes, and the whole sector catches a cold too
AVGO down 8%, NVDA almost unchanged
Money only willing to stay with the big boss
When AVGO fell this round, I pored over it for a long time
No earnings report, no scandal
Just being slowly sold through
A drop without reason is scarier than one with a reason
With a reason: bad news is already priced in
Without a reason: someone ran first
The basket of AI has narrowed to just one remaining star—NVIDIA
The market calls this “safe.” I call it “fragile.”
I won’t add to my position with this kind of move
NVIDIA sneezes, and the whole sector catches a cold too
AI’s money is starting to be picky
On Friday, AVGO was smashed 6%. VMware has a vulnerability; BofA also pointed out $370 billion in AI debt
AMD jumped 6.5% the same day; Baird raised its target to 1250
The semiconductor index didn’t move
That broad rally is over—going forward, it’s going to be about single order trades for winners
I’m not taking it—this kind of negative news like AVGO’s hasn’t been fully digested yet
On Friday, AVGO was smashed 6%. VMware has a vulnerability; BofA also pointed out $370 billion in AI debt
AMD jumped 6.5% the same day; Baird raised its target to 1250
The semiconductor index didn’t move
That broad rally is over—going forward, it’s going to be about single order trades for winners
I’m not taking it—this kind of negative news like AVGO’s hasn’t been fully digested yet
SEC this week canceled Reg Crypto
Turning around, Trump's World Liberty has obtained a banking license
Paper regulation keeps getting delayed
Licenses are still being issued
This week BTC moved from 64902 down to 63021 and didn’t drop 3%
Three weekly candles: the highs keep getting lower, the lows keep getting higher, and the range keeps tightening the closer the close
For the first time this month, the ETF saw net outflows for two consecutive days
Every time it gets delayed, the market doesn’t even splash
Good news or bad news can’t move it, and volatility is almost gone
Pushed to this level, the next big K-line isn’t far off
I’m not betting on it going up—first I’ll see where it drops
Turning around, Trump's World Liberty has obtained a banking license
Paper regulation keeps getting delayed
Licenses are still being issued
This week BTC moved from 64902 down to 63021 and didn’t drop 3%
Three weekly candles: the highs keep getting lower, the lows keep getting higher, and the range keeps tightening the closer the close
For the first time this month, the ETF saw net outflows for two consecutive days
Every time it gets delayed, the market doesn’t even splash
Good news or bad news can’t move it, and volatility is almost gone
Pushed to this level, the next big K-line isn’t far off
I’m not betting on it going up—first I’ll see where it drops
The index hits a new high—someone slashed AVGO by one knife
SPY is only 0.1% away from its 52-week high; no one’s panicking
Broadcom dropped 4% today, directly smashing it down to 400
In the same hour, SOXX is still green
The sector overall didn’t move—only that one got hammered down
This AI chip trade is splitting; days of blindly buying the whole basket are over. Now you have to pick names
On Friday, if you’re holding a single stock like AVGO, I’ll cut half first
Keep cash over the weekend and reassess on Monday
SPY is only 0.1% away from its 52-week high; no one’s panicking
Broadcom dropped 4% today, directly smashing it down to 400
In the same hour, SOXX is still green
The sector overall didn’t move—only that one got hammered down
This AI chip trade is splitting; days of blindly buying the whole basket are over. Now you have to pick names
On Friday, if you’re holding a single stock like AVGO, I’ll cut half first
Keep cash over the weekend and reassess on Monday
The index hits a new high—someone slashed AVGO by one knife
SPY is only 0.1% away from its 52-week high; no one’s panicking
Broadcom dropped 4% today, directly smashing it down to 400
In the same hour, SOXX is still green
The sector overall didn’t move—only that one got hammered down
This AI chip trade is splitting; days of blindly buying the whole basket are over. Now you have to pick names
On Friday, if you’re holding a single stock like AVGO, I’ll cut half first
Keep cash over the weekend and reassess on Monday
SPY is only 0.1% away from its 52-week high; no one’s panicking
Broadcom dropped 4% today, directly smashing it down to 400
In the same hour, SOXX is still green
The sector overall didn’t move—only that one got hammered down
This AI chip trade is splitting; days of blindly buying the whole basket are over. Now you have to pick names
On Friday, if you’re holding a single stock like AVGO, I’ll cut half first
Keep cash over the weekend and reassess on Monday
Reg Crypto, after waiting for so long, said they’re canceling—just like that
SEC’s first crypto rule, and now we have to wait again
No new date even provided
The market has been hoping for compliant rollout, so institutions can move in
But when it comes to compliance, it’s always just one step short
63K is stuck there—no one dares to make the first move
SEC’s first crypto rule, and now we have to wait again
No new date even provided
The market has been hoping for compliant rollout, so institutions can move in
But when it comes to compliance, it’s always just one step short
63K is stuck there—no one dares to make the first move
Gold being sold—money all rushing into tech
VIX has dipped back to 14—no one wants to hedge
NVDA is once again topping 226—only ten percent away from a new 52-week high
This AI rally isn’t over yet; it catches its breath in the middle, then keeps climbing
The hardest part is being in cash—watching it rise every day, too afraid to chase
I’ll keep holding—no messing around
VIX has dipped back to 14—no one wants to hedge
NVDA is once again topping 226—only ten percent away from a new 52-week high
This AI rally isn’t over yet; it catches its breath in the middle, then keeps climbing
The hardest part is being in cash—watching it rise every day, too afraid to chase
I’ll keep holding—no messing around
Everything is down except chips
SOXX is up three points
SPY is basically unchanged since it hasn’t even opened
And consumer is still stuck green for no reason
No need to guess the Wednesday money flow
It’s all going into semiconductors
The only question is
How long can a single-engine aircraft keep flying?
SOXX is up three points
SPY is basically unchanged since it hasn’t even opened
And consumer is still stuck green for no reason
No need to guess the Wednesday money flow
It’s all going into semiconductors
The only question is
How long can a single-engine aircraft keep flying?
Monday hit 63.2K, Tuesday keeps falling
Today bounced back to 64K
It’s been three days—something is becoming increasingly clear
The sell orders are exhausting
The bearish candle on Monday had the heaviest volume
Tuesday had less volume by a notch
Today’s is even lighter
If it really breaks down, it wouldn’t move like this
I didn’t sell
This week should be able to return to 65K
Today bounced back to 64K
It’s been three days—something is becoming increasingly clear
The sell orders are exhausting
The bearish candle on Monday had the heaviest volume
Tuesday had less volume by a notch
Today’s is even lighter
If it really breaks down, it wouldn’t move like this
I didn’t sell
This week should be able to return to 65K
Watching 64K slowly seep down
BTC three days and three bearish candles, moving from 64,900 to 63,700
The long/short ratio is still stuck at 1.8
Gold hits a new high at 4,431; haven flows are running. Crypto is still waiting for a V-reversal
But this time is different
The 64K level broke too quietly. Last time it was this quiet—then the next move down is 10%
I'm staying in cash and waiting
Not entering
BTC three days and three bearish candles, moving from 64,900 to 63,700
The long/short ratio is still stuck at 1.8
Gold hits a new high at 4,431; haven flows are running. Crypto is still waiting for a V-reversal
But this time is different
The 64K level broke too quietly. Last time it was this quiet—then the next move down is 10%
I'm staying in cash and waiting
Not entering
Semiconductors are rising themselves
SOXX +1.78%
NVDA is only up by less than 1%
The broader market is unmoved
In the past, when semiconductors moved, NVDA led the way
Today, the leader isn’t moving
The sector is rotating internally
If NVDA can’t keep up, it isn’t a real uptrend
SOXX +1.78%
NVDA is only up by less than 1%
The broader market is unmoved
In the past, when semiconductors moved, NVDA led the way
Today, the leader isn’t moving
The sector is rotating internally
If NVDA can’t keep up, it isn’t a real uptrend
SEC is pushing for Reg Crypto
The digital asset compliance framework must be put into practice
BTC dropped $1,500 yesterday to $63,800
Today the 64K level hasn't continued falling
$63,800 was tested twice
Yesterday I said bearish, today it's the other way around
ETH 1880—regulatory support is being treated as nothing by the market
Good news isn't believed by anyone; at this level I won't follow the crowd and smash it
I won't go short
The digital asset compliance framework must be put into practice
BTC dropped $1,500 yesterday to $63,800
Today the 64K level hasn't continued falling
$63,800 was tested twice
Yesterday I said bearish, today it's the other way around
ETH 1880—regulatory support is being treated as nothing by the market
Good news isn't believed by anyone; at this level I won't follow the crowd and smash it
I won't go short
Monday open: SPY is down 3 points breaking to a new high; NVDA is down 1%
Over the past two years, whenever SPY has been rising, it’s been led by NVDA. Today isn’t the case.
Semiconductors are falling behind. SMH is down from 670 to 580; SOXX is even worse.
The AI story is still there—money has moved out.
This week, SPY will most likely set a new high. Will NVDA keep up? I’m betting it won’t.
Over the past two years, whenever SPY has been rising, it’s been led by NVDA. Today isn’t the case.
Semiconductors are falling behind. SMH is down from 670 to 580; SOXX is even worse.
The AI story is still there—money has moved out.
This week, SPY will most likely set a new high. Will NVDA keep up? I’m betting it won’t.
US pre-market NVDA +2.3%, QQQ +1.2%
New highs
BTC 65K
Last week it moved around in this range for five days
It can’t be pushed higher, nor can it be pulled down
If this week the US stocks break and BTC stays sitting there
then that’s not accumulation
I’m bearish—anything that can’t rise should fall
New highs
BTC 65K
Last week it moved around in this range for five days
It can’t be pushed higher, nor can it be pulled down
If this week the US stocks break and BTC stays sitting there
then that’s not accumulation
I’m bearish—anything that can’t rise should fall
Fear 30
BTC 65K
Put these two numbers together and it’s wrong
Last week we ground at 63.5 all the way till today 65
Nobody’s calling “100K,” nobody’s FOMO-ing
Quietly moving up
I’m betting it breaks 66 this week
BTC 65K
Put these two numbers together and it’s wrong
Last week we ground at 63.5 all the way till today 65
Nobody’s calling “100K,” nobody’s FOMO-ing
Quietly moving up
I’m betting it breaks 66 this week
On the weekend the couch collapsed a bit after I flipped it over this week
SMH up 10% this week—semiconductors are finally real money returning
NVDA hit 224 on Friday, but it still has a ways to go before the 236 high—the leader hasn’t been fully confirmed yet
QQQ +5% SPY up about $3 and breaking to a new high VIX 14.9 nobody’s afraid
But gold is also up 2.3%—risk hedging and risk-on are both being priced at the same time; this combo is uncommon
I’m bullish, but I don’t dare to increase position size—VIX being so low is the only thing that makes me uneasy
Next week it’ll come down to whether SPY can break 777; more likely than not, it’ll just be dragged
SMH up 10% this week—semiconductors are finally real money returning
NVDA hit 224 on Friday, but it still has a ways to go before the 236 high—the leader hasn’t been fully confirmed yet
QQQ +5% SPY up about $3 and breaking to a new high VIX 14.9 nobody’s afraid
But gold is also up 2.3%—risk hedging and risk-on are both being priced at the same time; this combo is uncommon
I’m bullish, but I don’t dare to increase position size—VIX being so low is the only thing that makes me uneasy
Next week it’ll come down to whether SPY can break 777; more likely than not, it’ll just be dragged
SOX was up 8% in a week
BTC churned for 5 days to get 2%
The main character has been replaced
In the U.S., July saw 23,000 jobs lost
Stocks still rise as usual
Rate-cut expectations took over everything
BTC dumped from 62,300 to climbed to 64,900
In crypto, Trump tore into CRO; Bybit provoked North Korea
BTC doesn’t care about any of that
Money is flowing into U.S. stocks
SOX outperformed BTC by 8x
Rate cuts + a weaker dollar are bullish for risk assets
BTC hasn’t taken the baton yet
Next week, if it can’t break 65,300, it’ll still have to keep flowing into U.S. stocks
Drag it— but drag it upward
BTC churned for 5 days to get 2%
The main character has been replaced
In the U.S., July saw 23,000 jobs lost
Stocks still rise as usual
Rate-cut expectations took over everything
BTC dumped from 62,300 to climbed to 64,900
In crypto, Trump tore into CRO; Bybit provoked North Korea
BTC doesn’t care about any of that
Money is flowing into U.S. stocks
SOX outperformed BTC by 8x
Rate cuts + a weaker dollar are bullish for risk assets
BTC hasn’t taken the baton yet
Next week, if it can’t break 65,300, it’ll still have to keep flowing into U.S. stocks
Drag it— but drag it upward
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