乔阁部
31 Following
365 Followers
418 Liked
80 Shared
All
Quotes
See original
Although Bitcoin surged by 3% in 20 minutes last night and then dropped by 3% within the same timeframe, it is still much stronger than U.S. stocks in the short term.
This situation indicates that both buyer and seller liquidity is very low, and it doesn't take much money to cause price changes of 1 to 2 percent (last night it was about 1000 bitcoins pushing the price up).
After the Christmas holiday, there is a high possibility of a rebound in the Bitcoin market.
This situation indicates that both buyer and seller liquidity is very low, and it doesn't take much money to cause price changes of 1 to 2 percent (last night it was about 1000 bitcoins pushing the price up).
After the Christmas holiday, there is a high possibility of a rebound in the Bitcoin market.
See original
In the future, how many more bitcoins can we buy? On-chain BTC that has not moved for 10 years totals 3.409 million, many of which belong to lost private keys or people who are no longer around, including Satoshi Nakamoto's 1 million.
Additionally, there are
public companies 1.082 million,
spot ETFs 1.311 million,
estimated lost coins 2 million;
currently, there are about 14 million coins......
Compared to 21 million coins, it has already decreased by one-third. $BTC
Additionally, there are
public companies 1.082 million,
spot ETFs 1.311 million,
estimated lost coins 2 million;
currently, there are about 14 million coins......
Compared to 21 million coins, it has already decreased by one-third. $BTC
See original
Global long-term bond yields are rising rapidly, and the era of "cheap money" is coming to an end:
BTC: The most resilient "core asset." Although the macro narrative suppresses valuations, the consensus as digital gold remains.
ETH: On-chain lending costs are skyrocketing, ecosystem yields are shrinking, TVL may decline, and the adjustment may exceed expectations.
Stablecoins: Unexpected "winners"? Behind them, government bond yields are increasing, which can generate higher risk-free returns, making them more attractive.
BTC: The most resilient "core asset." Although the macro narrative suppresses valuations, the consensus as digital gold remains.
ETH: On-chain lending costs are skyrocketing, ecosystem yields are shrinking, TVL may decline, and the adjustment may exceed expectations.
Stablecoins: Unexpected "winners"? Behind them, government bond yields are increasing, which can generate higher risk-free returns, making them more attractive.
See original
A macro-level bearish signal: The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates this month has exceeded 98%, and an interest rate hike in Japan has almost become a certainty.
Due to the important position of the yen in the global financing market, each previous interest rate hike in Japan has raised global financing costs, causing Bitcoin to drop over 20%.
This time we have already dropped over 30%, and it's unclear whether this has already priced in the bearish news. Will Bitcoin reach 70,000 dollars???
Due to the important position of the yen in the global financing market, each previous interest rate hike in Japan has raised global financing costs, causing Bitcoin to drop over 20%.
This time we have already dropped over 30%, and it's unclear whether this has already priced in the bearish news. Will Bitcoin reach 70,000 dollars???
See original
From the copper-gold ratio, Bitcoin is currently in a bear market. As the economy recovers, the copper-gold ratio will rebound, and Bitcoin will rise accordingly.
See original
Global liquidity is flowing into the market. In just two weeks, the fair value of Bitcoin has increased from $160,000 to $184,000.
Current liquidity level:
+2σ: 373k
+1σ: 262k
Fair price: 184k
-1σ: 129k
-2σ: 90k
The current Bitcoin price is almost at the bottom $BTC
Current liquidity level:
+2σ: 373k
+1σ: 262k
Fair price: 184k
-1σ: 129k
-2σ: 90k
The current Bitcoin price is almost at the bottom $BTC
See original
Ethereum and altcoins have broken through their prices relative to Bitcoin after more than 1100 days of adjustment, which is very similar to the last round. At this moment, one should not continue to feel pessimistic about the prospects of altcoins. During the QE period, Ethereum will significantly outperform Bitcoin. Currently, QT has ended, and holding quality spot assets while waiting for QE to restart is a good time to practice being greedy when others are fearful. $ETH
$BTC
$BTC
See original
Bitwise has launched its first cryptocurrency index fund, which uses a market-cap weighted strategy, making it suitable for long-term holding. It is highly likely to become a gold index in the crypto field, similar to the Dow Jones or S&P 500 in the future.
For ordinary investors, there is no longer a need to struggle with whether ETH or SOL is the future; they can choose to invest in this index fund without much thought.
For ordinary investors, there is no longer a need to struggle with whether ETH or SOL is the future; they can choose to invest in this index fund without much thought.
See original
With Wall Street's deep involvement, the crypto market is rapidly becoming similar to US stocks, characterized by: long bull + low volatility.
On the market, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, the total market cap of crypto should already be confirmed at the bottom range. Although the rise will take time, it is currently a good left-side layout opportunity, similar to the end of 2024 and mid-2025. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
On the market, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, the total market cap of crypto should already be confirmed at the bottom range. Although the rise will take time, it is currently a good left-side layout opportunity, similar to the end of 2024 and mid-2025. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
See original
Share a simple method to judge the rise and fall of Bitcoin: 1️⃣ If the US stock market (the Nasdaq effect is the best) rises while Bitcoin falls, then there is a high probability of a subsequent decline.
2️⃣ If the US stock market falls while Bitcoin rises against the trend, then there will be further increases ahead.
The red arrow represents situation 2️⃣, and the green arrow represents situation 1️⃣.
2️⃣ If the US stock market falls while Bitcoin rises against the trend, then there will be further increases ahead.
The red arrow represents situation 2️⃣, and the green arrow represents situation 1️⃣.
See original
The current macro situation is more like the end of 2019 rather than the end of 2021, more like the eve of a bull market rather than the end of a bull market.
From a macro policy perspective, we are on the eve of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, not the opposite. Therefore, we should have stronger confidence in the future performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. $BTC
From a macro policy perspective, we are on the eve of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, not the opposite. Therefore, we should have stronger confidence in the future performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. $BTC
See original
Since Bitcoin peaked, ETFs have only sold 4-5% of their cumulative holdings, which indicates that major institutions remain confident in Bitcoin.
Wall Street's capital has taken over millions of bitcoins, this is not the end, but a beginning. $BTC
Wall Street's capital has taken over millions of bitcoins, this is not the end, but a beginning. $BTC
See original
Bitfinex long positions are currently at a cyclical high, and savvy investors are not hesitating to position themselves on dips, making the likelihood of further increases greater. $BTC
See original
The latest valuation model for ETH indicates that its fair value should be $4998.8, which is undervalued by 50% compared to the current price of $3212.5.
This valuation model is derived from a combination of 12 different methods, including TVL, protocol revenue, price-to-sales ratio, online staking conditions, etc., making it quite reliable.
However, the most reliable data, protocol revenue, currently values at only $1392, which is one of the two sell signals among the 12 signals. $ETH
This valuation model is derived from a combination of 12 different methods, including TVL, protocol revenue, price-to-sales ratio, online staking conditions, etc., making it quite reliable.
However, the most reliable data, protocol revenue, currently values at only $1392, which is one of the two sell signals among the 12 signals. $ETH
See original
A few days ago, CZ tweeted that it is best to sell when market greed reaches its peak and to buy when market fear reaches its peak. However, it is indeed very difficult to go against human nature and buy when everyone is in a panic.
Looking back, buying Bitcoin during times of panic has had great returns afterwards. $BTC
Looking back, buying Bitcoin during times of panic has had great returns afterwards. $BTC
See original
Bitcoin, where is the bottom of this round of retracement?
Bitcoin is currently priced at $86,635, and there are two positions that will serve as strong support for Bitcoin's decline: the production cost of Bitcoin at $88,843 and the electricity cost of Bitcoin at $71,074, of which the first price has already been breached, and the second has never been breached in history.
Currently, Bitcoin has dropped about 40 from its peak, and regardless of where the endpoint is, the decline won't last too long.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $86,635, and there are two positions that will serve as strong support for Bitcoin's decline: the production cost of Bitcoin at $88,843 and the electricity cost of Bitcoin at $71,074, of which the first price has already been breached, and the second has never been breached in history.
Currently, Bitcoin has dropped about 40 from its peak, and regardless of where the endpoint is, the decline won't last too long.
See original
The valuation of Bitcoin priced in gold is at its lowest level since 2013 (even lower than the bottoms of the previous two bear markets and the starting point of this bull market).
The safe-haven attribute of Bitcoin has not been fully considered; even if the market prices Bitcoin as a completely risky asset, its gains still lag far behind those of U.S. stocks.
The safe-haven attribute of Bitcoin has not been fully considered; even if the market prices Bitcoin as a completely risky asset, its gains still lag far behind those of U.S. stocks.
See original
The US dollar has softened over the past week or so, which is good news for risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks.
The dollar faces two negative factors: first, the extremely dovish Haskett is a clear frontrunner to become the chair of the Federal Reserve, and second, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has jumped significantly from less than 35% to over 80%.
The dollar faces two negative factors: first, the extremely dovish Haskett is a clear frontrunner to become the chair of the Federal Reserve, and second, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has jumped significantly from less than 35% to over 80%.
B
BFUSD/USDT
Price
0.9991
See original
S&P lowers Tether's ability to maintain its peg to the US dollar to the lowest rating.
S&P ratings have been around for over a century, and if I remember correctly, the last time there was extensive coverage of a downgrade by S&P was with Guangzhou Evergrande, when there was a lot of criticism, and later everyone became aware of the two trillion issue. If Tether were to collapse, the amount might not just be a two trillion problem.
S&P ratings have been around for over a century, and if I remember correctly, the last time there was extensive coverage of a downgrade by S&P was with Guangzhou Evergrande, when there was a lot of criticism, and later everyone became aware of the two trillion issue. If Tether were to collapse, the amount might not just be a two trillion problem.
See original
It's so tragic. Capital B, a European Bitcoin institution once known as one of the 'three major regional micro-strategies' alongside Strategy and Metaplanet, recently released a buy announcement, but each time it only involves single-digit operations like 5 or 6 coins, which is less than what many large players and bottom-fishing bloggers in the Chinese community are doing. Just five months ago, this company was still throwing hundreds of BTC every now and then. The contrast is just too great.
Login to explore more contents