比特摩斯BitMES

The first picture shows the changes in $troll holders in the past 10 days. In this week's violent wash-out, speculators were forced out of the market. This is only part of the on-chain data. Counting the CEX data, it has fallen by 83% since its highest point, and 10k is left with only 17k. There are very few people who can bear this loss, so the actual reduction in holders will be even more terrifying. However, when it comes to investing, you still have to follow the footsteps of smart money. From the perspective of the top 10/20/50/100 addresses with the largest holdings, smart money is buying the dip, as shown in the second picture, instead of doing the opposite. And the increase in their positions is shocking, which is very worthy of Troll holders' attention.

Meme rises very fiercely, but once it regains its upward momentum, it will rise by 10 times in a week. No one knows where the new climax is. Meme is not comparable to relatively mature investment targets such as BTC/ETH. The latter has many indicators to refer to. For memes, the weather changes in an instant. When the market improves, they are the canaries in the market; when the market turns bad, they instantly become big grizzly bears. Sometimes, all it takes to break this balance is someone's tweet.

No one will make a lot of money by constantly changing positions. This is one of my experiences in the crypto circle for so many years. If you are optimistic about it, hold it firmly; if you are not optimistic, sell it decisively and stop糾結. The purpose of coming to the crypto circle is not to join in the fun, but to judge who can make money in the end, instead of how many groups you have joined or how many bigwigs you know. None of these is useful.

It's not terrible to make a wrong decision once, like not making money on doge in the last bull market; it's not terrible to make two wrong decisions, like not making money on inscriptions. But it's terrible to make a third wrong decision. Therefore, for a project like troll that could appear in Musk's profile position and be reflected in his tweet location, that could蹭to this popularity, and is not expensive, it's a once-in-four-years opportunity, or maybe there will never be such a choice for you again. I'd rather歸零than miss it again. In addition, the meme long article I mentioned before has been in progress. There are too many things to do, so please be patient.

Last Tuesday’s post about Troll and its granularity were uploaded together. Troll launched htx yesterday morning, becoming the second third-tier CEX to log in after BingX. Can it repeat Shiba Inu’s zero-zero miracle from January to May 2021, with a surge of 270,000 times in 5 months? Why consider this issue? 1/The community opened a position last week, where is the money; 2/Assuming that troll is the Shiba Inu of this cycle, you can make a lot of money even if you buy it now. I will analyze the possible profits of opening a position at different stages; 3/Complex Although the position in this investment move is very small, it should still be taken seriously. This blog post is quite long, so please read it patiently.

Looking back at the skyrocketing history of Shiba Inu, there are two notable features: one is that it skyrocketed with the launch of major CEX, and the other is that it skyrocketed with the appearance of the words Shiba Inu on Musk’s Twitter. Figure 1 is a table made by this blog after sorting out the meme market in June 2023. Before the CEX launch wave in April, Shiba Inu had already increased 2,000 times, and the zero-removal movement had already started. Since then, with Figure 2, MEXC on April 16, April Gate on the 17th, huobi and okx on May 8th, and Binance on May 10th, with an increase of 135 times, and the first stage of the 270,000 times market was completed. In the second stage, the last surge was four months later on September 10. It rose 11 times after being listed on coinbase. On October 24, netizens asked Musk whether he had Shiba Inu tokens. After answering None, Shiba Inu Reached a historical peak. This is the price history of Shiba Inu.

This time, as Musk changed the note to "(CTO) Chief Troll Officer" on January 9, the troll started to rise, and it rose 100 times in the next week. According to Shiba Inu's first stage of 270,000 times experience, it was just an appetizer. So far, "troll" has appeared 47 times in Ma Tui, far more than Shiba Inu. If we count only from the time troll was launched on April 20, 2023, the number of times troll was mentioned on Malawei is as many as 15 times, which is unmatched by Shiba Inu. Therefore, in terms of troll’s important position on Musk’s Twitter, troll at this stage deserves more attention than Shiba Inu before it was launched on MEXC on April 16. In fact, the confidence in establishing a position last week came from the research content of Shiba Inu. If this part was not used as a reference, it is clear that the troll is in an extremely early stage and would not dare to act rashly, let alone involve the entire community.

Since Musk began to expressly support doge in the last cycle in 2018, Musk has almost become the meme leader, what shib/people/floki (the name Ma gave himself Shiba Inu), but except for doge, which has public support from Musk, and The identity of Doge CEO was disclosed in the profile, and other memes "secretly helped". This change may have something to do with Ma becoming the largest shareholder of Twitter in April 2022, which was mentioned for the second to last time in the tweet on May 27 of the same year. doge, July 7th was the last time, Figure 4. After that, the relationship with doge came about through the exchange with DogeDesigner@cb_doge.Another possibility is that Boss Ma has completed the shipment. The high point of doge in July 2022 has fallen by 95%. Among all horse-related memes, troll can be said to be the only meme on an equal footing with doge. It can be called the crown prince of Musk memem. Doge has increased 300 times in the second half of 2020 alone, directly driven by horses. Open up your imagination.

Going back to trolls, besides memes, doesn’t it have any use? The truth is that if you don't get out of the circle, you will indeed be as useless as thousands of other memes. But with Boss Ma, your imagination will be opened up. Song Dandan's line in "The Rooster Lays Eggs" "I wonder what I am scratching on the ground. Come closer." Take a look, I'm practicing my signature." Before Doge was discovered by Boss Ma, the team was completely poor. The founder did not pay off his housing loan until 2020. The core developer died of cancer. The page design stayed in the web1.0 style. Now Doge can say that it has everything it wants. Forced Full of character, Shiba Inu even launched the Layer 2 solution Shibarium in December 2021 after it became completely popular. In the words of Internet investors, don’t make a profit. You are so mature and you are starting to make a profit. I Why would you vote for me? That's the truth. Those who are useless but have imagination are the best. It doesn't matter if you can't sign. Once you become famous, you will have time to practice, and you can still practice very well, but let's become famous first. If it's really useful and famous, it should be thrown away.

So where does the troll's imagination lie? The first is the increase. The troll issuance is almost the same as Shiba Inu. The current troll is only equivalent to the state before MEXC was launched. Gate/mexc/okx/binance are queued up, and there are still 3 zeros to be wiped out. Then there is the function. The original intention of troll is huge. Devil, the logo is as shown in Figure 5, smart contract: 0xf8ebf4849f1fa4faf0dff2106a173d3a6cb2eb3a, or search troll on coingecko, the links below are all genuine, don’t buy the wrong one. Back to the game, a meme game "Meme Challenge" was launched in the United States in September 2021. Players can choose the most suitable meme expression package from the card pack in their hands according to specific situations. It is such an extremely simple game. It ranks among the top 10 free apps in the App Store. Although I don’t know what the roadmap for troll will be, and it doesn’t even have a website. The website provided by Coingecko will jump to the homepage of larrythellama. As a result, larry has skyrocketed 10 times in a week. Let’s wait and see whether it will make games. It has huge potential. Welcome everyone. Replenish.（2024.01.16）。

The financial market is like an experienced sadist. He can always take out the tools and means to torture us from his Doraemon-like dream pocket, and takes pleasure in doing so. Many people are tortured by this kind of torture. disoriented. The approval process of#Bitcoinspot etf# is actually full of similar torture. First, the ETF application information of iShares, a subsidiary of BlackRock, was exposed, which fired the first shot of this round of super rebound. However, the fire was quickly extinguished by "SEC's refusal to convert GBTC into ETF"; then, in August, the court ruled that the SEC's refusal The behavior was illegal, and the SEC said in October that it would not appeal, and this round of super rebound officially began; since then, the market has risen steadily amid discussions about whether it will pass, and the most exciting story also happened at this stage, or in other words, at a distance In the past week, the SEC first tweeted the information about the ETF’s approval. Gary Gensler then denied on Twitter that the official tweet had been stolen. Finally, in the early morning of January 11, Beijing time, the SEC officially confirmed that 11 institutions would be approved. ETF application. Even if you were sitting in Gary Gensler's position, I'm afraid it would be impossible to know before October that the ETF will be passed in more than two months. Of course, you and I can't know. In the past week, haven't you and I been wondering whether it will pass or not? "Spent in the questioning?

Looking back on this round of market conditions, I completely changed my trading ideas and filled my position just before the rebound. This is probably one of the most correct operations I made in 2023 https://weibo.com/6042860115/NnbA4sKdB. Another correct decision was in There are heavy positions at sol 20, and of course there are opportunities missed by brc20 due to arrogance. This is a bad thing worth pondering. I will talk about it in detail later. What I want to explore is how to discover different information from the clues in the market, and Use this to make correct decisions. For example, after the FTX thunder, the discount rate gradually shrank from 50% to 30%, 20%, 10%, and within 10% within a year. These are very obvious signals. ——Wall Street wants to make a fuss about GBTC, and the biggest possibility is of course to convert it into an ETF. I have repeatedly analyzed and spread it in the community. Such an obvious signal is naturally something that you and I should know, so what is not obvious? What about information that requires some comprehensive analytical skills?

I remember three years ago, I went to a bar near China World Trade Center with friends from the Beijing crypto community. At 1 o'clock in the morning, P!NK's "try" was playing. I didn't know the song at the time. I saw the lyrics on the big screen in the bar and came back. Just found it. Why do you have to figure out which song it is? Because the feasting and feasting at the scene combined with the super-powerful sound made my heart resonate with the melody. At this time, you can't hear any of your own voice at all. Your whole body seems to have become an ear, flying in the air without gravity. I'm afraid I feel relaxed and happy. That’s what I mean, this is an experience I’ve never had before. No matter how good the audio equipment at your home is, it’s impossible to achieve that experience, let alone AirPods. This experience made me remember this melody completely, so much so that I listened to it over and over again after I got home, but I can never find this feeling again. This also inspired me to think about the empty word "perception". A high-level musician can burst into tears with just a few melodies. The master Terence Fletcher in "The Boomstick" is this kind of character, and the excellent perfume appraisal A teacher can really smell a kingdom with his nose. Frank Slade in "Scent of a Woman" has this special ability. Similar cases include the sense of smell of the financial world by Barton Biggs, the godfather of finance who I like very much. , and car exterior designers/watch designers/illustrators/animators... They either acquire this talent through hard training, or it is inherited, but no matter which way, they are ordinary people. An impossible state to reach. Talking back to the try song I heard in the bar, I may have heard it on previous occasions, maybe in front of a two-dollar store/clearance sale/TCM advertisement, etc., but why didn’t it reach the bar? What about that height? I think it may be that the atmosphere at that time inspired me to have a certain perception of music. This perception is deep in the synapses deep in the brain. The atmosphere of the bar is the key to the lockbox.

In the financial market, does making money also require some perception? If I didn’t have 7-8 years of experience in the financial market, making money from liquidated positions and millions of words of analysis output, I wouldn’t believe that the financial market requires any kind of perception. I would only think that the financial market is a gathering place for arrogant elements and nouveau riche. , and now I would never think so, financial markets are a wonderful world where mathematics and philosophy intertwine.I would like to explain financial market perception as "the ability to find certainty in uncertainty." The most recent case is that when the entire market is looking down on the Ethereum system, I feel that it is time to be strongly bullish on the Ethereum system projects - I will later release a few short clips of the live broadcast in the community this Tuesday to illustrate this issue - like Both ETH and OP are worth it. Maybe my understanding of the latest Ethereum technology is not that profound, such as stateless client/single slot finalized/sharding/Parallel EVM, but I know that capital is blind most of the time, and retail investors The idea of ​​​​is like grass on the wall during a storm. The two can also reach a balance at a certain moment. It seems wonderful but has no logic. I should seek another point of view when people blindly pursue one point of view. Another case is what I mentioned above. I was able to change my thinking in time in October this year. The Weibo link above can probably explain my thinking process. Of course, I will never say that I will be right at all times. This is simply a joke. Next, I will also deeply reflect on a lot of missed opportunities in this round of market conditions. Arrogance is the culprit. Let’s encourage each other. (2024.011.1).

In the financial markets, there are few qualities more valuable than having contrarian thinking, which will help you stay calm when most people are going crazy. I clearly remember that at the end of 2017, the market went out of control amid the enthusiasm for the launch of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In May 2022, the market encountered "519" in the wave of wealth creation in DeFi. At the end of 2022, the market was The beautiful fantasy of "eternal bull market" encountered Waterloo. If extreme beauty is supported by fantasy, then extreme pain will inevitably accompany the disillusionment.

In Q4 of 2017, as a newbie in the financial market, when I saw that LTC increased by 500%, XRP increased by 15 times, and Doge increased by 20 times in one month, I fell into an unreal illusion. I can even recall that the sunshine at noon in winter was so warm, so I rushed into the market and increased the leverage. The market ended this madness sooner or later. The lesson was accurate and cruel. These painful memories may be the reason why I maintain "contrarian thinking" even though I am not wise in many aspects.

However, sometimes there is no need to be too smart here. On the contrary, some very smart people cannot make good investments and may become reverse indicators of the market. They may be Wall Street elites, or they may be "capable people" around you. In his book "Hedge Fund Chronicles," Barton Biggs describes Cyril's partner Cyril's passionate and intelligent mother-in-law, Jenny. Jenny is always interested in the financial market, looking for the so-called "most reliable news" and buying and selling accordingly. However, her partner Cyril always regards Jenny as a "reverse indicator". As long as she buys something, Cyril will sell it quickly. Even if you drop that thing, it can always be sold at a high price. It has been tried and true.

Life may be full of such "reverse indicators". Even if you can't bear it and think that this may be a bit like a single success, this is part of the market. The market exists objectively, and it will not happen just because an ETF has passed. It can rise every day, turning a free-trading financial subject into a capital market that only rises but never falls. Nor will the 2008 subprime crisis break out just because the U.S. stock market has passed a large number of ETFs. So, if one day, when you hear your wife discussing Bitcoin spot ETFs with you after coming home from work, and a friend outside your circle sends you a screenshot of the sharp rise in Bitcoin, you must realize that this is the most obvious selling point. Send a signal, rather than thinking that this is the beginning of a bull market. Reverse thinking will never go out of style.（2024.01.09）

To observe whether a large-scale market has reached its top, two indicators are critical:

One is the Fear and Greed Index. When extreme greed is touched, it is usually the top of a round of market https://coinstats.app/fear-and-greed/

The other is the Altcoin Season Index. When it exceeds 75, it means that the altcoin has entered the stage of chaos, https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index/

At present, these two indexes have not reached their extreme positions, so we should pay attention to them.

1. The Cancun upgrade has never been so close to us as it is today. Whether/when it is passed will not only affect the wallet, but also the long-term l2 people;
2. I have never seen so many negative comments on ethereum on social media. Is the second-largest crypto asset by market value really in decline?
3. The U.S. stock market has begun a deep correction, and ETFs have fully anticipated it. Has the big rebound before this round of super bull market peaked?

This issue of membership content focuses on the issues that the market is most concerned about recently, Little Bluebird + Weibo + Binance Square, has been forwarded 50 times, and is all publicly released.

Warm reminder, the currency circle has been rising for 5 consecutive months, and now it has not really entered a bull market cycle. The expectations of all ETFs are hanging at a loss, so it is better to be cautious.​​​

#MyFirstSquarePost Welcome to Binance Square! #