BIT居士

Two days ago, everyone was still saying: “The crypto market has no liquidity left. All the money in crypto has gone to U.S. stocks. There’s no money in the market—how could Bitcoin possibly rise?

And I’ve been emphasizing all along: In August, first we’ll see a needle-like spike, around 70,000 or so—maybe 72,000. How do I judge that? The market needs to go against human nature. Everyone is waiting for the final drop; therefore, the market will likely spike first—piercing and wiping out most shorts—creating the illusion of a bull market. Then everyone starts saying, “The bull market is here! Go for it!” And then comes a sudden, rapid drop. After the longs are cleared, there will be another swift rally.

I’ve never believed that if liquidity disappears, prices will necessarily fall, because liquidity can flow back instantly. Price action is tied to sentiment and the operator’s counter-human-nature behavior. Liquidity is something the operator lets people see.

In the previous phase, AI and storage stocks were on fire; everyone went to U.S. stocks. The “liquidity” everyone talked about went there too. What happened then? A 50% crash in one month.

Now think carefully about this question: Is the best entry point precisely when liquidity is “gone”? Should trading be done against human nature? If people think liquidity is gone, and they start waiting or selling, then who is going to buy? And who benefits from a sudden explosive pump?

If you don’t believe it, just watch. Soon, everyone will be saying: “Liquidity has come back from U.S. stocks to the crypto market!”

After you’ve been in the crypto world long enough, you’ll come to know that your final destination is BTC. Other ones—like Ethereum, BNB, SOL, and so on—can only be owned for a short time; they’re just scenery along the way, for you to look at, not for you to possess.

BTC’s biggest drawback right now is that it hasn’t upgraded to be quantum-resistant yet. But this is also its biggest advantage. Once the quantum-resistance upgrade is completed, Bitcoin will become the hardest asset in the world.

Some people may think Bitcoin won’t complete the quantum-resistance upgrade. I can tell everyone very clearly: the quantum-resistance upgrade is inevitable and will be completed. Ethereum will complete the quantum-resistance upgrade first. After the feasibility is verified, Bitcoin will follow immediately. Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million Bitcoins can be handled in a few ways: 1) Destroy them. 2) Lock them, but the owner can reactivate them later. 3) Map them to quantum-resistant Bitcoins.

It seems everyone got one thing wrong: when a coin goes up, people start chasing it with FOMO, thinking the bull market is here—quick, buy! When a coin goes down, people panic like crazy, can’t take it anymore—quick, sell, quick, run.

Is everyone really operating like this? Everyone is doing the exact opposite.

Shouldn’t it be: buy in a bear market, sell in a bull market?

This is the difference between the rich and the poor: the rich playbook goes like this—when a bear market comes, the coin price starts getting dumped, they疯狂ly spread negative news, and panic spreads. Everyone can’t hold on, and he hypes them all off the train—then he uses that moment to build positions and buy the lots. When a bull market comes, he疯狂ly releases good news, manufactures FOMO sentiment, and hypes everyone into buying at high prices to complete the distribution of his holdings.

The poor mindset is the opposite. In a bull market, FOMO is high, people疯狂ly buy and get onboard—then they get trapped. In a bear market, panic keeps going; they can’t stand it anymore, and they end up cutting losses for even lower lots. In the end, the lots get handed over to the dealer.

Trading has a counterparty. In a bull market, if more people are buying, then for every amount bought, there must be an equal amount sold—so who is doing the selling? In a bear market, if more people are selling, then for every amount sold, there must be an equal amount bought—so who is buying?

Before you trade, figure out the logic first. That’s why ordinary people buy and the price drops, and sell and the price rises. If it goes up too much, it must drop; if it drops too much, the coin goes up.

In a nutshell: buy in a bear market, sell in a bull market. Small dips, small buys; big drops, big buys. If it doesn’t drop, don’t buy. Small rises, small sells; big rises, big sells.

The Democratic Party election committee is looking to pledge building loans—this is an opportunity for the crypto circle. The CLARITY Act has been delayed until September. With the midterm elections approaching, to get the bill passed, they must secure more than seven votes from the Democrats. Everyone also knows that the Democrats are currently squeezing the industry.

Now the Democratic Party election committee has no money on its books, while the Republicans still have over $100 million. The Democrats are even willing to pledge building loans—at this stage, it only further highlights how important the crypto circle is. The leading players in crypto could actually start negotiations with the Democrats right now, such as Coinbase, Circle, MicroStrategy, and others. Getting seven votes from the Democrats at this moment isn’t too difficult. In the end, it depends on whether the top leaders in the coin world want to do it.

Do these firms benefit if the bill passes? Can the benefits be maximized? Have they already prepared for the bill to pass? Will passage bring them more advantages? Or would passing it now benefit their competitors more? These are the questions the big shots in crypto have to consider. Ordinary people’s wishes don’t matter.

Passing the bill is good for the United States, not just good for crypto—it’s a mutually beneficial, win-win bill. The Democrats are struggling over how to respond to Trump’s ethical provisions; they’re being too petty, not considering the possibility that if Democrats come to power, they could also profit.

The Republicans are at it with a blatant scheme. They’ve blamed the Democrats for not passing the bill—failing to pass it is entirely due to the Democrats’ issues. The ethical provisions the Democrats wanted—Republicans have already compromised on. But the Democrats still aren’t satisfied. That’s the scheme. If the Democrats still refuse, they’ll inevitably push the crypto circle toward the Republicans; if they pass it, they’ll get even stronger support from crypto. The Democrats are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They’ve entered a situation where they have to prove themselves. To break the deadlock, they can only drag it out—until the midterm elections are near—then promptly agree to secure crypto support.

Bitcoin has forked—BIP-110 has split off from block height 961632. When people see a Bitcoin fork, they feel like Bitcoin is doomed. But if you’ve been around the crypto world for a while, every time Bitcoin forks it’s an opportunity to get rich. Of course, this time it’s a soft fork, not a hard fork. A soft fork won’t have a major negative impact on Bitcoin. A hard fork will map to a new coin 1:1. Not only does it not hurt Bitcoin’s price—every hard fork tends to cause even more people to buy Bitcoin, and then a crowd gets “rich” via short-position mapping.

Soft fork (tightening rules): Think of it like lowering the speed limit from 120 km/h to 100 km/h. Drivers who keep using old cars don’t realize the rules changed—if they just drive slower (following the new rules), they can still stay on the road. But if someone drives fast (violating the new rules), the traffic police will stop them. So in most cases, the network won’t split, and no new coins will be created.
· Example: In Bitcoin’s history, SegWit (Segregated Witness) and the Taproot upgrade were successful soft forks. They enhanced functionality and privacy, but they didn’t split the blockchain.

Hard fork (loosening/changing rules): Think of it like raising the speed limit from 120 km/h to 150 km/h. Old cars simply can’t go that fast, so they have to stay on the old road. Meanwhile, new cars take the new highway. From then on, the two roads diverge permanently, causing the blockchain to split for good—and at the snapshot, new coins are created at a 1:1 ratio (e.g., Bitcoin Cash, BCH).
· Example: The 2017 Bitcoin block-size debate. Because the disagreement over block size couldn’t be reconciled, a hard fork ultimately produced Bitcoin Cash (BCH). People holding Bitcoin automatically received an equal amount of BCH.

BIP-110 plans to add seven consensus restrictions within about a year, mainly targeting non-payment data such as Ordinals inscriptions, BRC-20 tokens, and Runes. Supporters believe these “data storage” behaviors consume block space, drive up transaction fees, and that it’s necessary to “set things right” to bring Bitcoin back to a pure peer-to-peer electronic cash system. But support is bleak—current support is only 2.7%. Including Michael Saylor and Adam Back, they have denounced it and concluded it will fail.

Personally, I also oppose BIP-110. Bitcoin is free—anything that’s needed is a good direction, and it shouldn’t be restricted. How do you know which direction Bitcoin will ultimately develop is the right one? Just like Satoshi Nakamoto didn’t predict that Bitcoin might become a strategic reserve asset.

Bitcoin’s bottom is completed almost imperceptibly. While most people are waiting for Bitcoin to accelerate up again to $150,000 like before, it suddenly stops at $126,000. When most people are waiting to buy the dip at $48,000 or $38,000, maybe it suddenly stops at $57,000 (maybe even lower at $53,000). Perhaps the market won’t drop easily. When good news doesn’t cause a rise, it turns into a drop—when a bull market ends. Similarly, when bad news doesn’t cause a fall, it signals that a bear market has ended.

Why can’t ordinary people make money? Because they all want to buy the very bottom and sell at the absolute highest point. If they can’t catch the bottom or can’t sell at the peak, they feel like they’re losing. The market isn’t like that. Even institutions, whales, and other big players can’t always catch the lowest and sell at the highest. Why would ordinary little “cabbage” traders be able to? That’s the paradox itself. Whales have enough capital—when they sell or drop, they buy. Even with that kind of operation, there isn’t much capital left that can truly buy the bottom. Let alone ordinary little traders—they don’t have that much capital.

So “cabbage” traders end up being forced to chase swing trades. This action drags them into another extremely high-difficulty dimension. What they think is to double their money by swing trading—maybe even like certain people in the plaza: 10U turning into 100U, and 10,000U turning into 100U or even 10,000,000U. To put it plainly: if you can double your money within a year by swing trading, you’re already the most badass trader in the world. Your salary or commissions would be world-class—annual income of $1 million, $10 million… It’s very simple.

The reason ordinary people can’t make money is that they feel invincible and place themselves among the best traders in the world. In financial markets—the hardest kind of operation. How could they make money?

Everyone, understand the next sentence carefully. There’s a saying in financial markets: Slow is fast.

Bitcoin’s current position—even if it isn’t the absolute lowest—offers very good value. The most sensible move for “cabbage” traders is: small dips, small buys; big dips, bigger buys; if it doesn’t dip, don’t buy—set up regular DCA (dollar-cost averaging) for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Will Bitcoin still fall? Of course it will. But whether you dare to buy when Bitcoin drops determines your income. Trading isn’t only about seeing profit—it’s also about what happens when you lose.

When I do things, I think about the worst possible outcome, but I do it with the determination to win. How do you understand this sentence? It applies in any situation. Bitcoin investing is the same.

Everyone, guess how August, September, and October should play out so that most people don’t get on the train and miss the chance to buy the dip. You need to learn to operate against human nature.

Operating against human nature: First close your eyes and rest for a moment, then use your current way of thinking to trade Bitcoin. Think about when to buy and when to sell. Decide which month to buy, whether to trade in waves, and after a drop of how much you would buy in or get off. For those already on the train, finally think back: at what level would Bitcoin falling make me start to lose patience? At what level would I simply not be able to tolerate it?

So, based on your own thoughts, what would cause most people to miss out or get stuck holding the bag?

My personal idea is: In August, spike upward to around 70,000 (or about 72,000 in the best case). How high exactly depends on where the market will be positioned to create the illusion of a bull market. Then, ultimately, drop 20%. Whether the close should be judged with more market conditions leads to two scenarios:

1) If the bill passes: first surge upward, creating the illusion that it’s a bull market. After the good news has been digested, quickly drive the price down hard—insert another 20% downward wick. Then rapidly push up 10%–15%. At that point, everyone thinks it’s clear and starts buying again—then the price keeps falling, and you enter a wide-range sideways consolidation. Consolidate until November, with an amplitude greater than 10,000 US dollars.

2) If the bill does not pass: spike upward but not too high, then start a fast sell-off—so severe that people feel Bitcoin is basically finished. Institutional funds begin massive withdrawal, and then nobody dares to buy. At this time, institutions and huge whales start quietly selling while secretly buying the dip, entering a bottoming process that grinds on—until mid-November after the election lands, and then the bull market begins with a violent rally, shaking off most people.

This is my personal pre-scenario for Bitcoin. What about you?

In a bear market, the most important thing is to survive. Slowly accumulate spot positions. You don’t need to guess where the bottom is. When others feel they can’t take the drop anymore and are uncomfortable, that’s when you buy and gradually invest through dollar-cost averaging. The cost of trying to guess the bottom is missing out on the opportunity.

Once you understand it, you can make money.

Compared with the bottoms of the previous cycle and several earlier bear-market cycles, the consensus in this round (not just the consensus of retail investors/“grass,” institutions, giant whales, listed companies, ETF flows, etc.) is: as long as there’s another ~20% drop, or if prices fall to 50,000 or 40,000, then it’s a full-on bet—“all in.” The earlier bottoms didn’t have this kind of consensus.

So will the market let most people get what they want? I don’t think so. At most, there will be another rapid move that targets and liquidates the long positions—something like a swing of 5,000 to 10,000 points up or down within 5 minutes. Most people won’t be able to catch the bottom and jab in at the pin.

If Ethereum is up to 2100 right now, do you follow or not? 😀

And doesn’t it mean that most of those waiting for 1300 have all missed the boat? 😀

If Bitcoin drops again to the beginning of 50k, and then accelerates down to 53k, are you敢 to go bargain hunting?

Then if Bitcoin rises again to 80k, do you dare to follow? Doesn’t it mean those waiting for 53k have also all missed the boat?

Why am I saying this? What I want to tell everyone is: those who want to bottom-fish often can’t catch the bottom. By the time you react, it’s already flying to the skies.

The best move is: don’t try to pick the bottom—its odds are even lower than winning the lottery, because human nature is involved here. Capital manipulates human nature, and everyone should understand that.

DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is the best investment approach: buy a little on small dips, buy more on big dips. If it doesn’t fall, don’t buy. Over the next few months, every time it drops is a good opportunity to buy.

To the all-powerful coin friends, which platform that is specifically for writing posts in the crypto world is most well-known right now? Besides Binance Square, what else is there? What dedicated chat platforms and promotion platforms exist in the crypto world?

U.S. stocks plummet, but Bitcoin doesn’t follow the drop—there’s a bit of a sense that a valuation “dip” is being created to attract capital from the stock market. If this continues for another 1–2 weeks, then most likely the people behind the scenes are intending it. And with World Cup-related funds flowing back as well, the likelihood becomes even higher.

Talk about WLFI. I still have nearly 1 million coins that haven't been unlocked 😅. Even though the unlocked ones have already recouped their cost, seeing the numbers and not being able to sell still feels pretty uncomfortable. The idea behind it is quite good, but it has somewhat lost public support. If Trump steps down, the chances of this coin rising again are extremely low. The next presidential coin might come along too.

The key point is that right now WLFI is kind of like it’s been abandoned. Its main role is to pay interest to USD1. How should I put it? You have to admit, Trump really knows how to do business—he’s essentially taking money from thin air 😦. He issues USD1 to lock up everyone’s dollars, and then uses the WLFI he issued as the interest. Totally zero effort.

In the future, there are two possible ways WLFI could rise: 1) It’s genuinely building decentralized finance and gaining support from the American public, so it still has a certain approval rate among his batch of rednecks. 2) Once USD1 is boosted by Binance, WLFI can benefit from the upside of USD1. But both paths are extremely time-consuming. Still, I have to say—the WLFI interest paid out in the form of USD1 rewards is really tempting.

The situation between bulls and bears is unclear, so it’s best to wait and observe. There are many opportunities, but preserving your principal is the king.

I really hope Bitcoin can drop another 20% before entering the next bull market—then it would be perfect. The next bull market will be another 5x rally.

Right now feels a lot like the previous bear market when it was around $18,000. If there isn’t a black swan event, then it will likely consolidate for about three months and kick off the bull market. If a black swan does happen, then there will be another 20% drop. After that, everyone starts saying: “Bitcoin is going to zero,” and everyone waits for Bitcoin at $38,000—only for it never to come. By the time people react, it’s already above $70,000.

The best approach is to DCA (dollar-cost average). If you run out of ammunition, you can go earn money elsewhere first to build up your capital.

In the crypto world, everyone needs to adjust their mindset. If you miss one opportunity, just wait for the next—there are many opportunities, but once your principal is gone, no matter how many chances there are, it won’t help.

The main reasons people get trapped are fear of missing out and “holding on no matter what.” Whether the market goes up or down, it’s these two reasons that lead to getting trapped and to losses getting worse. But after experiencing so many cycles of rises and falls, everyone should summarize their experience. Missing it isn’t scary—at least you didn’t lose money. The outcome of stubbornly holding on is liquidation (if you’re trading futures) or getting stopped out at the lowest point (if you’re doing spot swing trades).

To make money in the crypto market, position risk control is extremely important: trade direction in the context of the larger trend, and do swing trades within smaller trends. If you miss one time, you miss it—there are many opportunities. Don’t fantasize about how much you would have made if you hadn’t sold back then, or how you wouldn’t have lost so much if you had sold. Stop your fantasies. Unrealized gains are just numbers—if the principal is gone, then it’s truly gone. The most important goal in a bear market is simply to survive.

It's already pumped to 6.63. If you're not gonna HODL the last bit, you can safely cash out your principal.

Let’s talk about SPCX subscriptions. Personally, I think the “greens” (retail investors) will very likely get cut again. With such a huge scale and such a high market cap, the chance of a dump is extremely high. For global subscriptions of this size, before it happened, everyone withdrew other funds and subscribed less to other things; those other assets—like Bitcoin and gold—fell, creating price “potholes,” and institutions bought the dip on that portion of assets. After the SPCX subscription is over, many funds will want to come back and buy those “pothole” assets. But I think those “pothole” assets are going to start pumping. Retail investors who bought SPCX will realize they don’t actually make any money. Then the funds get cut and return to buy the dip again—but institutions won’t give them the chance. Bitcoin starts pumping, pushes the price up, and then sells at a high price to the slice of retail investors who went to subscribe SPCX 😄—a bidirectional cut.

I reckon this bear market might wrap up sooner than expected. We're eyeing 30k, 20k, or even 10k shorts, all waiting for MicroStrategy to take a nosedive. But let me keep it real; seeing that happen in 6 months, or even 1 to 3 years, is pretty unlikely. MicroStrategy has shown everyone that it’s not going to crash. Even if it dips lower, as long as the sell point covers interest, we’re good. They’ve already hinted that they can sell a bit to cover interest and then buy back 50x the Bitcoin the next day. If it really drops to 10k, miners, family offices, MicroStrategy, and big players will scoop up all the Bitcoin. When it hits 10k, MicroStrategy will probably issue more shares to buy 5 million Bitcoin directly. That’s way more profitable than what miners are doing because it represents this Bitcoin halving cycle, where the mining cost is 90k, which means 9x profit; miners will just sell their machines and use that cash to buy Bitcoin.

The most efficient miners have a mining cost of 40k. If Bitcoin stays below 40k for too long, even the top miners will shut down and sell their machines to buy Bitcoin. Right now, most mining rigs are priced between 60k and 80k. If it stays below 60k for an extended period, many miners will have to sell their rigs and pivot. After the Bitcoin halving in 2028, the mining cost is projected to hit 90k. So, it’s not that MicroStrategy will collapse first; it’s the miners that will bounce. The bottom for Bitcoin is likely close to the point where miners go bankrupt or have to pivot, and you should know that many miners are already transitioning to AI. It’s a similar story to previous collapses; miners aren’t making any money! This is the value trap for Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin drops below 40k, I gotta tell you, it’s time to sell the farm to buy Bitcoin because your cost is even lower than the best miners! They still need to buy machines, build facilities, hire engineers, deal with machine depreciation, and a whole list of expenses. The top Bitcoin miners need at least 50k per coin. You don’t have to do anything; you don’t need to buy machines, build facilities, hire people, or worry about machine depreciation. You can get Bitcoin instantly, which takes those guys with 20 machines a year to mine just one. They have time costs, but you don’t. How low do you think Bitcoin can drop below the mining cost? It’s already dropped 80% below the mining machine prices; only 20% are left that are barely profitable.

I wouldn’t rule out Bitcoin dropping another 20% in the future, but I believe the bottom for Bitcoin is most likely in the 53k to 55k range.