BIT居士

Now think about this: how many retail traders are already in the market?

Look at it from another angle: if Bitcoin fell back to $60,000 right now, would you buy? Would everyone else? Most people probably would. Some may disagree, thinking that even if it dropped to $60,000 or $50,000, they still wouldn’t dare buy. But we need to follow the logic: when big players push the price down, what are they trying to do? They’re buying as they drive the price down, aiming to scoop up the coins that panicked retail traders sell. They’re not trying to distribute their holdings—that happens when they push the price up. If they chose to push it down to $60,000 now, they wouldn’t shake out many coins, but they would cause a lot of retail traders to buy the dip. That would be counterproductive. That’s the logic. Does that mean it won’t fall to $60,000? Maybe it will. But if it breaks below $60,000, it won’t stop there. A huge black swan event could send it tumbling so far that you’d question everything. And if the price keeps rising from here, would retail traders dare to jump in? Most wouldn’t. The market tends to move against what most people expect. When the price keeps climbing and retail traders start shouting, “The bull run is here,” that’s when it’s reached a short-term peak.

All the drops we’re seeing now are liquidating long positions. Previous drops wiped out spot holders as well as long positions. So why has that changed? Before, retail traders were chasing the bull market near the top, and their coins needed to be shaken out. The situation has changed now: retail traders don’t have many coins left after being wiped out twice. They’re waiting for a drop so they can get back in.

So what should we do? Accumulate when the market falls: buy a little on small dips and more on big dips. If the price drops by more than 5,000, 10,000, or 15,000, increase your purchases accordingly. This refers to spot buying.

Let me talk about something realistic. I believe a lot of people are not on board right now. Many are hoping the price will drop so they can get in, and then the bull market will take off. If you analyze the logic behind it, you’ll know what to do.

Here are a few points to consider:

1. Bitcoin is at $86,000 now, having risen from $57,000. Many people have missed the whole move up, and now they’re thinking that if it drops back to $60,000, or even into the $70,000 range, they’ll buy in—or even go all in. Some are hoping to buy below $60,000, or even below $40,000. If it really does drop that far, will you dare to buy?

2. When we buy Bitcoin, we hope to be on board when it rises in the next bull market. But the reality is that in most bull markets, retail investors aren’t on board.

3. Suppose Bitcoin drops to the low $60,000s and everyone starts buying the dip. Who would be selling? The last time it fell to $60,000, people panicked and dumped their coins to those who bought the dip at that level. Would those buyers really dump the hard-won coins they got at $60,000 onto retail investors? Bitcoin has already tested the bottom twice. Trying to push it down again to shake out everyone’s coins would be very costly—possibly even unprofitable.

4. Trading goes against human nature. I’ve reminded everyone several times that Bitcoin’s bottom would either come early or be delayed, and it’s more likely to come early. The market probably won’t give everyone a chance to buy the dip. If it does, then that wasn’t the bottom. The bottom is very unlikely to come in October. That’s because, in everyone’s mind, the bull-bear cycle doesn’t change easily. The prevailing view now is that once you’ve sold your coins, it’ll be hard to buy them back cheaply.

5. If the defining feature of a bull market taking off is that most people aren’t on board, then right now is the best possible moment. If the price drops again, are institutions going to sell their coins to everyone?

6. In the past, Bitcoin was a game between retail investors, so it was easy to shake out their coins. But the market’s fundamentals have changed. Trying to shake out coins from ETFs, institutions, publicly listed companies, and sovereign wealth funds the way retail investors’ coins are shaken out? All I can say is: it’s hard. Very hard for the price to fall back to $58,000—unless there’s a major black swan event.

7. Could liquidity below the current price still be cleared out? Yes, it could. It’s just a matter of which side gets cleared first.

From here, you should buy when it drops, and at least make sure you have some spot Bitcoin on hand. Otherwise, what would Bitcoin reaching $1 million have to do with you? The logic behind buying coins should be to compare the future selling price with the current price—and decide on your selling price first.

Let me remind everyone again: how to tell whether a KOL is real or fake:

First, see whether a KOL is useful to you, or whether they’re just a fraud.

Here are a few points:

1、Do they take orders or not? If they take orders, then all of them are shysters—without exception. They can’t make more than you can yourself. And they can’t match your level. Why? Because to make their data look good, what they show you is all fabricated. And real money-makers won’t come out to teach others and take orders, and profit off everyone’s pocket change. If someone truly makes money through trading, they don’t need to go out and scrape together the “three or five bucks” from everyone.

2、They talk about Bitcoin price levels—saying that the levels have been unchanged for 800 years. They insist on it. But financial markets are ever-changing; they won’t stay the same. Today it’s support—tomorrow it’s a trap. Today it’s pressure—tomorrow it’s the starting point.

3、They teach everyone to trade frequently—800 directions in a day, and they want you to catch every swing. Anyone suspected of frequent trading is water, and that’s as watery as it gets. How to judge whether it’s frequent trading: if you trade more than 5 times in a month, that counts as frequent trading.

4、Watch whether they have “main-force (institution) mindset.” What is that? It’s a way of thinking that uses news to harvest retail investors (“cabbages”). The more you watch the news, the more you become a cabbage—please understand that sentence.

Real, useful KOLs: those who don’t take orders; those who only teach people to build their own trading system; those who teach contrarian, anti-instinct trading; those who teach reverse thinking; those who teach an institution/main-force mindset; those who teach people to reduce trading frequency; and those who teach how to break down the truth behind the news.

Bitcoin keeps poking downward then pulling back; long and short positions are locked in stalemate, and it feels like it’s a bit unable to fall further.

Right now, the whole market still hopes Bitcoin will drop so they can buy the dip.

Will their expectations be met?

If at this time Bitcoin rises again above 85,000, everything will move higher—8.7 has already been tested twice. The third time will go even more smoothly and move higher.

Everyone should have read the news in the picture, right? Okay, now think about the ideas you just had: think about this—1, 2, 3, stop thinking.

Retail investors: It’s over. Based on past experience, it’s going to plummet. China is cracking down hard on virtual currencies, and cracking down hard on Bitcoin.

First of all, the interpretation in the picture is not a strict ban on virtual currencies or a strict ban on Bitcoin. What it strictly prohibits is this: virtual currencies cannot be used for circulation as currency, but they can be used for circulation as goods. They are not legal tender. That means your profits and losses are your own—you can’t lose money and then sue, because the law doesn’t support your claim. It prohibits activities like providing trading services and illegal operations. But it does not prohibit you from personally holding and trading.

“Whatever the law does not prohibit is lawful.” The law is严谨, and it does not directly say: it is illegal for individuals to hold Bitcoin, or illegal for individuals to trade Bitcoin. It just says that providing trading—such as if you open a trading platform—that would be illegal.

Let’s put it more plainly: is it illegal for two individuals to do this—one person gives U to the other, and the other gives RMB to the first person?

My answer: it’s not illegal, as long as your funds are legal and there’s no involvement in foreign exchange trading, helping someone do illegal activities (帮信), or fraud. A normal U trader is not illegal. In fact, U traders are also individuals trading peer-to-peer with other individuals. The platform they operate on is what is illegal within China.

So the key for a U trader is to judge whether the people you trade with are ordinary normal people, and whether the source of the U is not U from telecom fraud, and whether the money is not fraud money. If you do that step well, then it’s not illegal.

Ordinary people worry they won’t be able to exchange U: but having said that, you just need to make sure the other person’s money isn’t dirty. First, you can only judge as best you can—there’s no way to completely eliminate risk. You can choose a U trader who has been doing it as a business for years, then add them as a WeChat or Alipay contact. Don’t pay directly via QR code; instead, ask them to transfer to your account. Check their transaction history (a lot of days of activity). If there’s transaction history, your risk is much lower, because then you’re not the first person directly handling fraud funds—you’re more like a second-tier participant.

Next, I’ll explain the next post in detail.

What do you think about the event where Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1 billion yesterday? First, use your own way of thinking.

Alright, 1, 2, 3—stop, stop thinking.

I bet you’re thinking like this: Institutions collectively made a massive inflow—there must be some unknown secret behind it. Quickly follow the institutions’ lead, come on, let’s rush in!

Alright, let me give you an alternative logic:

1. First of all, the group behind this ETF that buys it includes some institutions, family offices, some large whales, and some retail investors. Where there is buying, there is also selling, right? Everyone only sees the $1 billion being used to buy in—so who is selling the $1 billion worth of Bitcoin?

First, let’s rule out retail investors, okay? Retail investors aren’t on the train. So where does the Bitcoin used to sell that $1 billion come from? Then who is it? It’s not institutions or family offices, not retail investors—so what’s left is: whales and trading venues.

So we need to look at the Bitcoin market and figure out who’s really in control.

2. Such a massive buy—in terms of the relativistic idea—doesn’t it imply that the subsequent inflow funds will be less than that $1 billion? The higher the price gets, the more it will relatively hinder them from continuing to flow in. In other words: if it keeps rallying, their desire to sell will be greater than their desire to buy. That $1 billion inflow, relative to what comes later, isn’t just a “support board”—it’s a sell order.

Can you understand what I’m saying?

We should enter the market before the inflow happens, and even buy while liquidity is flowing out—not wait until after a massive inflow to buy. Do it early, trade early, not late.

Everyone should be cautious: Bitcoin may surge again. There are two possible scenarios:
1) It drops directly to where long positions get wiped at 8.2–7.8, and then continues to rise, surging toward 100,000.
2) It first rises to 8.9, then falls to below 8.2 where long positions get wiped, and then surges toward 100,000.

Let me ask everyone a question: Right now, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.8 trillion. If we want to pull it up to $3.6 trillion—that’s about $170,000 per Bitcoin. In your impression, how much money is needed? Do we need a pullback of $1.8 trillion in capital? Does a Bitcoin pump require a lot of money? However, that’s not the case.

Many retail investors, including some old “long-term bagholders” who have been through it before, have a misconception: that dumping Bitcoin is easy. You don’t need much capital—just sell coins to raise cash, and that’s enough to smash the price down. But to pump Bitcoin, you need a large amount of capital. To push it to $170,000 requires massive funds. The market simply doesn’t have that much money.

Anyone who thinks this way is just a “rookie investor” (a bagholder with a flawed mindset). Reality is exactly the opposite of what you think.

Now I’ll tell you the answer: A Bitcoin pump may require no capital at all. And not only does it not require capital—it can actually take more capital back from the market. When I say it doesn’t require capital, I don’t mean it’s free and you don’t need even a penny. What I mean is this: the “operator” (the big player) often needs some initial capital to start the pump. Then they push the market up with a big bullish candle, and after that, they start the pump while selling at the same time. Then they continue pumping while selling again, drawing more people to keep buying. In the end, at high prices, they finish distributing the chips (offloading their holdings). It not only costs nothing in terms of spending, it actually cashes out the “U” (USD equivalent) from everyone’s hands.

When Bitcoin’s price rises, it’s not only because more money flows into the market. It can also rise by stepping on the left foot while the right foot steps up. And in most cases, market uptrends are basically the process where the operator distributes chips and cashes out from high positions.

The same logic applies to downturns. The operator doesn’t necessarily sell a large amount of chips outright. Instead, after selling one batch of “dumping” chips to smash the price, they buy up at low levels to harvest the chips held by everyone else. They smash while buying. The act of dumping is actually accumulation, not distribution.

Just think about the logic: if you hold a lot of Bitcoin and you want to sell, would you say Bitcoin is good or bad? Should you then go ahead and release endless positive news? Are you going to sell when retail investors are rushing into the market with funds, or sell when retail investors are panicking and dumping? When you don’t have any coins in your hands, do you release positive news? Shouldn’t you instead release negative news?

That’s the difference between retail investors’ thinking and the operator’s thinking. Retail thinking: Look, positive news is being released—quick, buy! The operator is pumping and giving us money. Wow, negative news is coming one after another—run! The operator is about to跑路 (run away).

To all my brothers and sisters trading in spot markets: if you miss the trade at this moment, don’t be anxious. Everyone needs to understand one thing—if you miss it, you’re not on the train, and at least you won’t lose money. In the financial markets, it’s all about who can last longer. There are many opportunities; no one opportunity is lacking. People who are on the train shouldn’t get arrogant either—ultimately, the winner isn’t necessarily the one on the train. If you start showing off after just one success, bad luck begins from then on. Always keep a sense of awe and maintain a calm mindset. Before you realize your gains, everything is just numbers. If you’re not on the train, at least your mobility is better than those who are.

If it goes up too much, it will come down; if it falls too much, it will rise. If you miss this one, no big deal—you can just wait for the next opportunity.

Everyone needs to train their mindset. Even if you make a lot of profit or suffer a lot of loss in a single day, for me, my mindset hardly ever wavers, because I deeply understand that before you realize your gains, everything is just numbers.

Lower your desires; doubling is the baseline. Aiming for triple is the goal, and wanting tenfold is a dream.

For ordinary people, wanting to go up 100x is just the starting point, while 10,000x is their real target. Of course, this is related to the size of one’s capital, but the essence of the issue should be understood. Ordinary people shouldn’t get rich by chasing multiples; they should get rich by time.

You can increase 3x each round—then two rounds can achieve the dream of 10x. You can be lucky and hit 10x—then two rounds of 10x is 100x. What you shouldn’t do is count on one round to get you to 100x. The market is decided by the upper tier; in an already mature market, they won’t wait for 100x to run. Ask yourself: which billionaire would dare to wait until something can multiply his wealth 100x before he moves? For them, even 10x is already the limit.

Many people say they come to the crypto world to turn their situation around, not just to make a little profit and exit. But you’re ignoring a key premise: you need sufficient capital. Small capital can’t “turn things around.” What you need to solve is the capital-size problem, not the multiples problem. If you don’t get information and insider news faster than the upper-tier people, what can you rely on to be stronger than them? Luck. And in the crypto world, luck is essentially gambling. If it’s gambling, then you’d better be prepared to lose all your principal.

So everyone should understand what to do now, right?

Rich People’s Mindset: Apply the logic of the animal world to the crypto world.

This world is a harvesting world. When you apply the logic of the animal world to real humans, it’s the same: big fish eat small fish, and small fish eat shrimp. It looks calm on the surface, but traps are everywhere. People can’t eat people, but they can still trick people. The bottom class always serves the upper class, and social resources are always held by that small group of people.

In the rich people’s world, there is no charity—only harvesting. Behind every prosperity is an illusion. Everyone is meat on the cutting board, and so are the rich. There is also something called power. In ancient times, power meant you could do whatever you wanted; now it’s the same—only that, on the surface, they try to build an image that looks less cruel. Learn to think from others’ positions, and to think against human nature.

Apply this to the financial market. The “operators” here aren’t so kind as to pull up for you just so you can cash out and leave, and they’re not so kind as to smash down to give you chips. Pulling up is to dump the chips at a high price onto everyone. Smashing down is to buy your chips cheaply.

More specifically: In a bull market, good news at high levels is to sell the chips to everyone at those high levels. Bad news in a bull market is to collect everyone’s chips—and they’ll continue to push the price higher. If the bull market good news doesn’t move the price up, then the bull market is over and it turns into a bear market. In a bear market, bad news at a low position is to take in chips from everyone at a lower price. In a bear market, good news is to distribute chips in stages—while still needing the price to fall. If bear market bad news doesn’t fall, then an uptrend is starting.

That’s why, in the previous post, around 76530, I said: increase your buying efforts; if the bad news doesn’t push the price down, the rise begins. That is exactly: bear-market bad news doesn’t fall, and the uptrend begins. The same logic applies to bull-market bad news—it's for harvesting chips, and if it doesn’t drop, then it needs to rise even more.

This is just a mainline method for making judgments. It can’t fully apply to every situation, but it can help with decision-making.

For friends who are doing dollar-cost averaging (DCA), you can now start increasing your DCA efforts. It feels like the market can’t drop any further. When bearish factors like the bill failing and rate hikes don’t push prices down anymore, everyone should consider increasing your positions. When I’m posting this, the price of Bitcoin is 76,530.

Preview the midterm elections: The Republican Party will most likely lose the House of Representatives.

The Clarity Act was not passed, and Republicans suffered losses—this is also the trap the Democrats set for the Republicans.

Next, if the Democrats want to win over crypto supporters, they will inevitably respond in the following ways:

1. Take a stance. This is not about deliberately blocking the bill from passing. It’s simply that they’re dissatisfied with Trump’s open lawmaking in practice—because he has a veto exemption. And it didn’t completely prohibit government personnel from participating. It also stripped states of enforcement authority. The Democrats will promise to keep pushing the bill, with the goal of getting crypto supporters to switch sides and gain more leverage for the midterms.

2. Trump has promised that if Republicans win both chambers, everyone will receive a $5,000 reward. It’s a desperate solution. They used their big move early—they’re really afraid of losing the House.

It’s always been like this in the real United States: transient presidents, permanent lawmakers. In practice, it’s a small group of lawmakers who call the shots. In a “fair” America, the Democrats are naturally at an advantage, because currently Republicans control both chambers. In a year of governance, they can say what’s what and make unilateral decisions. And in the United States, it’s impossible for everyone to be satisfied. So Democrats have a natural edge, and the public will sympathize with the weaker side.

This tactic by the Republicans is a bit underhanded. They know Democrats can’t make the same promise. Even if Democrats promise that if they win both chambers they will give everyone money as well, even if the legislation passes Congress, it would still be vetoed by Trump—unable to clear the president’s signature. To the public, this will look like plain bullying, and the promise is also an empty check.

3. Raising interest rates is extremely unfavorable for the Republican midterm elections.

By raising rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. Republicans were already trailing Democrats in polls due to cost-of-living issues. This move is like handing Democrats ready-made ammunition: “The Republicans make life more expensive.”

Escalating internal contradictions: Trump just pressured on social media to cut rates to 1%, yet Wa sh does the opposite. This “insider slaps the insider in the face” drama reveals chaos in the party’s economic agenda and shifts the focus away from election campaigning.

Sensitive timing before the election: Even White House officials hinted that if the Federal Reserve raises rates again within the five days before the election, it would be “for political purposes.” Wa sh’s actions turn monetary policy into a direct interference factor in the election.