Bitcoin.org

First, this reminds us that “Not your keys, not your coins” is not an exclusively security rule. It’s rather primarily a sovereignty principle.

Security is relative. It depends on the individual, their setup, and their ability to manage risk.

Even without the issue that reportedly made some seed phrases predictable, they’re still fragile by design. You don’t want someone else getting access to them. You don’t want to lose them without having a backup. And you certainly don’t want an attacker to obtain them.

This is why Vitalik Buterin has argued for more programmable wallets.

Features like social recovery, where trusted contacts can help recover access, or daily spending limits, which prevent an attacker from draining an entire wallet in a single transaction, are examples of improvements that could make self-custody much more resilient.

There are many other proposals it, and I hope this episode will accelerate the conversations.

$AKE
Even after all the discussions we’ve had over the past few days, I still received comment explaining why $AKE is supposedly well positioned to capture the GTA narrative and why the current rally is “legitimate.”

My take is different.

I think one of the reasons these tokens keep going through repeated pump-and-dump cycles is simple: there is still enough capital willing to buy the narrative.

Too many people are still anchored to the story projects are selling. Personally, I prefer to start with market structure.

Forget the pitch for a moment. Look at the on-chain data.

According to the BubbleMaps data attached, more than 40% of the circulating supply is clustered around just two entities (possibly even one, depending on the relationships between the wallets).

At the same time, you have a token that has appreciated more than 3,000% with no obvious fundamental catalyst.

Does that automatically make the move illegitimate? Not necessarily.

But that’s not even the question I’m asking.

The real question is risk.

When such a large portion of the supply is concentrated, the downside risk becomes asymmetric. If those dominant holders decide to distribute, the price can reverse extremely quickly. Conversely, as long as they retain control and liquidity remains available, sustaining the rally becomes considerably easier.

In the end, you’re free to trust the narrative-or to trust the market structure. My preference is to analyze both before taking the risk.

#Altcoin Season# #Meme Alpha# #BNBChain#

Have you been following what’s happening in the Middle East?

I sincerely hope it doesn’t escalate into a broader regional conflict.

A U.S. tanker was reportedly attacked by a drone near Egypt. On its own, that may not seem exceptional given the current geopolitical environment. But what caught my attention is where it happened.

Egypt has largely stayed out of the conflict. Yet it controls the Suez Canal, one of the last major export routes available to Gulf producers after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and security risks near the Bab el-Mandeb.

For several Gulf exporters, rerouting through Suez is already significantly more expensive than their traditional routes. Some countries also remain heavily dependent on Hormuz due to limited alternative export infrastructure.

If risks around Suez were to increase as well, the market would have to reassess the resilience of global oil supply chains.

I remember someone here suggesting that I should go long oil ($CL) because of the geopolitical setup. At the time, I wasn’t convinced.

Given the latest developments, I think that scenario has become much more credible.

Let’s see how the market prices the geopolitical risk over the coming days.

$BTC $CL

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #

So it’s starting again?

$GIGGLE is up more than 50%, and suddenly the narrative is: “Go all in, it’s CZ’s project. It’s going to do what BNB did.”

if you decide to buy based on that assumption, you’re responsible for your own decision.

As of today, $GIGGLE is a community-launched memecoin. It is not an official CZ project, nor an official Giggle Academy token. The only connection is that the trading fees is directed to the public donation wallet associated with the Giggle Academy initiative.

The recent rally appears to have been driven largely by speculation following CZ’s statement:

“I support all meme coins. I might even buy (or sell) one or two in the next few weeks to test a few new things. May the best memes win!”

Since then, the market has started trying to price in which memecoins CZ could potentially buy, and $GIGGLE has become one of those speculative candidates.

Whether that speculation is justified is another question entirely. Manage your risks btw !

#Meme Alpha# #BNB Chain#

$BANK is finally starting to correct after spending most of last week in a strong uptrend.

I’ve been highlighting for a while that its price action showed interesting similarities to the pattern we previously saw with $DEXE .

Different token, but so far, a remarkably similar setup.

Now let’s see how far this correction goes.

#Altcoin Season#

While the number of crypto exchanges that have closed or announced their closure this year is only a small handful, the “great cleanup” is affecting far more crypto projects in the broad sense.

RootData counts 70 to 95 crypto projects (including exchanges, but also DeFi, wallets, NFTs, etc.) that have announced closures, bankruptcy, or inactivity since the beginning of 2026.
In my opinion, you should pay particular attention to projects that are weathering the bear markets and keep building. It’s a sign of a stronger fundamentals.

You can find this kind of project across several sectors. In the yields sector, for example, on the $BNB Chain, I’m thinking of Lista, Unitas, or ASTER in the perpetuals ecosystem. On Sui, I often talk about $HAEDAL , a yield-generation protocol that, despite a security incident during the bear market, reimbursed users without issuing its token and kept developing its product.
As always, do your own research before investing.

$BTC is resuming the 65,000 $ and the next decisive level is now around $67,000.

In June, this zone was enough to halt the recovery and reactivate selling pressure. If BTC can break through it this time while maintaining its bullish structure on the daily timeframe, the path toward a test of 70,000 $ would become far more credible.

The rebound from 57,000 $ already suggests that the most recent selling impulse has lost control of short-term momentum.

What remains to be determined is the nature of this move: the start of a real bull-market recovery or just a bullish rally within a still bearish structure?

In both cases, my bias remains positive for now. 67K is the level to reclaim; 70K would then be the logical target to watch. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

Since the beginning of the month, three crypto exchanges have announced the end of their operations: AscendEX on July 1, BitMEX on the 22nd, and then BitMart this morning.

These platforms had respectively 7, 11, and 9 years in existence. In other words, they are not players who arrived yesterday: they have gone through two, sometimes three market cycles, experienced the ICO mania, the DeFi Summer, and then the Terra, Celsius, and FTX crises.

Seeing them leave the market today, in my view, can be interpreted in two ways.

First, the bear market is probably more difficult than what the evolution of prices alone suggests. The market is particularly calm, activity and volumes are contracting, and this pressure ultimately ends up weighing directly on the platforms’ business models.

Second, the regulatory and operational cost of running a centralized exchange has increased considerably. MiCA in Europe and the strengthening of regulatory frameworks elsewhere now impose particularly heavy compliance, licensing, and infrastructure requirements on intermediary players.

The result increasingly resembles a structural consolidation of the sector: the large regulated exchanges and institutional players are gradually capturing a larger share of activity.

The market is not disappearing. It’s simply changing hands. 🙌
$BTC $BMX
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#

$EUL , $QI and $DEXE each recorded more than a 70% increase in 24 hours, while the market’s main assets are moving virtually flat.

This divergence highlights an important point: the crypto market does not always operate as a single, homogeneous block.

Large macro or sector-specific catalysts are generally reflected first in Bitcoin and the major market capitalizations, before spreading to the rest of the market. But some assets—especially smaller-cap ones—may temporarily move independently of this trend.

In these cases, you should focus on finding the specific driver of the move: news that is unique to the project, changes in liquidity, concentration of supply, one-off speculation, or, in some instances, activity that could be potentially manipulative.

That’s why a +70% move in a stagnant market is not automatically a sign of strength. On the contrary, the more a move appears disconnected from the broader market, the more important it becomes to understand where it’s coming from.

Before looking at how high a token can go, first try to understand why it’s rising.

#Altcoin Season# #Meme Alpha#

$KAITO Kaito has just announced a strategic partnership around data with X, with several use cases planned and more details expected soon.

The announcement is particularly interesting given Kaito’s positioning at the intersection of data, attention, and crypto markets.

The real question now is what the two teams are looking to build: an InfoFi return directly on X, a new data infrastructure, or an entirely different product?

The market, meanwhile, has already started to speculate: $KAITO reacted to the upside after the announcement.

Now, I’m mostly waiting for the details. That’s where we’ll be able to truly gauge the scope of this partnership.

#Altcoin Season# #Meme Alpha#

There is a technical similarity between $DEXE and $BANK that deserves more attention: the mint function remains active on both contracts.

The comparison is interesting because $DES had experienced an extremely rapid appreciation over several days, before undergoing a sharp correction. So far, $BANK shows a fairly comparable price dynamic, with a strong expansion phase followed by what appears to be the beginning of a pullback.

But the real point to watch is the supply structure.

An active mint function means that, depending on the contract’s permissions, the supply can potentially be increased. Therefore, there is no need to see today a massive concentration of tokens in just a few wallets for a dilution risk to exist.

In a market where available liquidity is relatively low, a reduction in supply that is immediately negotiable can amplify the rise. Conversely, the issuance and subsequent circulation of new tokens could create significant sell-side pressure.

Of course, this does not prove that a large-scale mint will happen on $BANK. In particular, it would be necessary to analyze who controls this permission, any possible limits, and the contract’s governance mechanisms.

But given this technical feature and the similarities with the structure observed on $DES, I believe the risk is significant enough to monitor the evolution of BANK very closely.

#Altcoin Season# #Meme Alpha#

$BTC has just strung together a third consecutive positive weekly close—a signal that remains relatively rare since the market entered its bearish phase.

This is only the second sequence of this kind since the start of the bear market. The previous one preceded an extension of the rebound, with BTC moving from around 60 000 $ to 82 000 $.

This repetition therefore strengthens my optimistic bias in the short term.

Even if the 57 000 $ do not ultimately represent the definitive bottom of the bearish cycle, I believe the market still has enough momentum to seek a new local high before any potential resumption of the decline.

In short, my preferred scenario is for the rebound to extend over the coming weeks, before reassessing the market structure.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

Technically, recurring purchases are first and foremost purchases at a fixed price.

But tactically, that’s when prices become much cheaper—so accumulating becomes even more interesting.

That’s why we can’t directly blame Michael Saylor or Tom Lee for not having made new Bitcoin (or Ethereum) purchases for about a month.

Since June 22, the market has mainly moved upward. Bitcoin has gone from around 57 000 $ up to more than $64,000. Under these conditions, their lack of new purchases doesn’t necessarily mean they know something that the market doesn’t.

The most important point is that they haven’t sold. They simply haven’t made new purchases.

$BANK has already done +400% this week and the week hasn’t end yet ! Bubblemaps’ graph shows that $38M where withdrawn from Binance and Bitget accross several wallets one month ago.

#BNB Chain# #Altcoin Season#

CLARITY ACT 🇺🇸

From my point of view, this federal hearing prudence is rather positive. The issue is not simply to adopt the text as quickly as possible in order to meet the expectations of crypto players who want to evolve in a more comfortable and predictable regulatory environment. The main goal should be to arrive at a sufficiently clear and solid framework that can function in the long term.

In this context, the current debates matter. They make it possible to confront different viewpoints, to delve into certain still-sensitive points and, potentially, to improve understanding of the real implications of the text before it is adopted.

The approach of the parliamentary recess on August 7 could obviously slow down the process. But if this additional time helps to fine-tune the regulatory framework and avoid grey areas that could cause problems later, then it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. On a topic that is so foundational for the future of the American crypto industry, the quality of the framework probably matters more than the speed of its adoption.

$BTC
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$TRUMP

Starting August 1, Trump Media plans to commercialize the Truth API, a data feed intended for banks, hedge funds, and high-frequency trading firms. The goal is simple: give them faster access to posts by Donald Trump and the most influential Truth Social accounts than a standard notification.

In practice, this means that when Donald Trump publishes a message likely to influence the markets, some players will receive and process it a few milliseconds before the rest of the market.

A few milliseconds may seem insignificant. Yet for trading algorithms, it’s more than enough time to analyze a post, place orders, and start moving prices before most investors even see the notification appear on their phone.

This further widens the gap between retail investors and institutions that invest in very low-latency information infrastructure.

It’s often said that information is a competitive advantage. But in reality, in modern markets, it’s no longer just the information that matters—it’s the speed at which you can access it.

And it’s no coincidence that Trump Media is now turning this advantage into a commercial product: Donald Trump’s posts are market-moving information, and this speed of access itself becomes a monetizable asset.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #TRUMP

$GNO

The semi-final from yesterday between France🇫🇷 and Spain🇪🇸 made me think about prediction markets.

With a result so hard to anticipate, I wonder how the top-performing traders really build their edge.

I heard that some rely on statistical models, AI agents, or tools like Claude Code to analyze probabilities.

But in the end, in an environment where uncertainty remains very high, where is the real advantage?

Is it a matter of data, risk management, execution speed… or something else?

If any of you have experience with prediction markets, I’d be curious to hear your approach. 👇
#PredictionMarkets

Markets continue to factor in the geopolitical risk linked to tensions between the United States and Iran. Oil ($CL) remains the main beneficiary of this risk premium, after rising by more than 7% over the week. Bitcoin, for its part, has indeed fallen back, but its correction remains relatively contained. Prospects for a ceasefire have receded, suggesting that further negotiation phases may be needed before a durable agreement can be reached. That said, I feel the market is gradually starting to price in this scenario. Each new headline related to the conflict seems to trigger a less pronounced reaction than before. If this reading is correct, $BTC could now move into an accumulation or consolidation phase, pending a new macroeconomic catalyst. This is the scenario I consider most likely today. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BNB Over the past 14 days, the network recorded 516 net new holders with zero net outflow (+0.12%), despite BNB trading lower across every major timeframe (-1.2% 7D, -4.6% 30D, -4.3% 90D). Whether this recent community activity played a role is difficult to quantify. $TCC effect? Maybe. Maybe not. 😂 What matters more is the underlying signal: holder growth continues even as price weakens. That's the kind of behavior associated with an ecosystem whose user base remains engaged beyond short-term market sentiment. Interesting insight I came across while testing my @CoinMarketCap altcoin_token_profile skill connected to my Claude Code agent. #BNBChain#

$BTC Since the cycle top, each bearish impulse had one common feature: to reach progressively deeper lows in order to confirm the sellers’ dominance. The first two waves clearly fulfilled this role by decisively breaking below the previous troughs. The third, however, tells a different story. Despite another attempt to drop, the market only slightly dipped below its prior low before reacting. In my view, this reflects a weakening of the selling momentum. Sellers still hold control in the short term, but their ability to extend the decline appears to be diminishing. If this interpretation holds true over the coming days, the most likely scenario would be a consolidation phase, followed by a gradual resumption of the bullish trend. Obviously, this is not certain, but it is the scenario that seems to me to have the highest probability today. #BTC Price Analysis#