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$XAU The Nasdaq and silver have both shot up, while gold is just going sideways and dipping. The rebounds happen all through the night. Clearly, there's a major bullish trend, but on the smaller timeframes, we’re seeing 100-point adjustments up and down. Every drop has been a full day's struggle to trade. There's a high probability of another low before August. For those with some dry powder, make sure to stack a little. As for this market, let’s put it on hold for the next few months! We'll jump back in when the rate cut expectations spark some big moves.

$XAU The Nasdaq and silver have both shot up, while gold is just going sideways and dipping. The rebounds happen all through the night. Clearly, there's a major bullish trend, but on the smaller timeframes, we’re seeing 100-point adjustments up and down. Every drop has been a full day's struggle to trade. There's a high probability of another low before August. For those with some dry powder, make sure to stack a little. As for this market, let’s put it on hold for the next few months! We'll jump back in when the rate cut expectations spark some big moves.

Is it the end of the world for the US or Iran?
Definitely the Americans, trying to lock down the Strait of Hormuz for the long haul, military spending is on fire, and both parties are really unhappy about this expense. The inflation from high oil prices due to war is making voters cry out, and Trump’s approval ratings are dropping ahead of the midterms! Looking at the situation in the Middle East objectively, Iran still has land routes; its neighbors within 5000 kilometers provide plenty of exits. It’s unrealistic for the US to strike them all—just look at the world map! Also, the UAE's exit from OPEC is a heavy blow to the US, as transactions can be done in RMB instead of USD, offering many alternatives. This revenue stream can't be stopped and could directly dismantle the petrodollar hegemony! That said, the toll collection rights in the Strait of Hormuz have always been in Iran’s hands; the US is just making a loud claim, but in reality, American vessels are too scared to pass through. As soon as they attempt to, Iran’s underwater military assets are ready to engage. The right of passage is still effectively in Iran's control, and the lockdown seems more like a show! Essentially, the anti-American hegemony in the Middle East is long-standing, combined with land options, and they can afford to wait. This is also why Iran is so stubborn on the nuclear issue! Looking at the long-term timeline, no matter how the US wraps this up, it accelerates other countries' moves towards using RMB for energy settlements. First, Russia got kicked out of the SWIFT system, forcing them to switch to Ruble transactions, which financially helped Russia navigate its troubles. Now, the US-Iran issue is actually advantageous for countries worldwide to dismantle the dollar hegemony. Once more countries embrace the RMB, the US is really going to be caught off guard! So don't be afraid of falling gold prices; the more it drops, the more central banks buy. The great power game has just begun, oil prices are going crazy, the US is panicking, and Trump is even more anxious, trying hard to self-destruct, paving the way for a global peace! – #黄金回撤至$4500附近