两栖韭菜

A-share semiconductor stocks bounced 4.1% this morning, led by NAURA Technology. Don’t rush to call it a reversal. Put simply, they’re down 55.4% from their peak and fell 28.7% in a month. Today’s gain hasn’t even made up a fraction of that. A bounce after a steep drop is perfectly normal, but a bounce doesn’t mean the trend has reversed. It’s more likely just catching its breath halfway down the mountain. Do you think the decline has stopped, or will it keep grinding lower?

U.S. midterm election voting has just wrapped up, but the results are still undecided. Bitcoin is still hovering around $77,000, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 35, still in fear territory.

The bottom line: Don’t bet ahead of the election results. What really matters is whether Bitcoin can hold the $76,000 level. Short-term holders’ average cost is right around here. With the price tracking that cost basis, it suggests recent buyers are basically not in profit. This is the kind of level that wears you down—and makes it easiest to shake people out.

Bitcoin fell about 7% in October, and U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $643 million on October 30. Money is flowing out—that’s a fact. The election has simply brought uncertainty to the forefront. Once it’s over, the underlying fund-flow dynamics still have to play out, and whoever takes office won’t turn outflows into inflows overnight.

So don’t trade on headlines over the next few days. If you’re heavily invested, ask yourself: If Bitcoin breaks below $76,000 and heads toward $73,000, will you still be able to sleep? If not, the problem isn’t the election—it’s your position size.

The most grueling markets don’t test your judgment as much as your ability to stay put.

$BTC $ETH

The takeaway first: this theft wasn’t caused by the vault door—it started on employees’ computers. #BinanceIncidentReport
Binance’s preliminary report last night laid out the chain of events: In June, an engineer searched for AI coding tools and installed a tampered Homebrew package; in September, another engineer took a fake job interview, and a zero-day Trojan was hidden in the coding assignment’s repository; on October 20, hackers used an internal AI tool as a stepping stone to obtain a container token belonging to the wallet team; on October 29, within four minutes, five hot wallets first transferred out 233 million XRP, followed by SOL, OP, and BTC.
The numbers: around $6.34 billion was affected; approximately $2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted; 98% of the affected tokens had been replenished by October 31. Binance will absorb the shortfall; users won’t bear the loss. The FBI attributed the attack to North Korea’s TraderTraitor, and Binance says it has blocked 57 suspected North Korean attacks this year.
Put simply, stopping 57 attacks is an achievement; falling victim to the 58th is a lesson: the most expensive line of defense is often the most ordinary computer in someone’s hands.
Being able to stop 57 attacks doesn’t mean the 58th won’t happen.
$BNB $BTC

The books for the first batch were just tallied yesterday, and at noon today the gates opened for the second batch. Binance has started processing withdrawals in the second phase, gradually restoring withdrawals for dozens of coins across nine chains. On Ethereum, LINK, SHIB, and ONDO are among them; on Solana, TRUMP, BONK, and JUP are on the list. Note that withdrawals are being restored in batches, not all at once. Which coins can be withdrawn on which chains depends on whether security checks are complete.

Here’s an interesting contrast: during the hour starting at 3 a.m. today, deposits exceeded withdrawals by about $10 million. During the first nine and a half hours after the gates initially opened, there was a net outflow of $3.64 billion. The tide has turned pretty quickly.

But let’s put the figures in perspective: deposits outpacing withdrawals for one hour doesn’t mean things have recovered across the board. The cumulative net outflow is still there, and verification of the full proof of reserves is also due today. It’s good that the gates are opening wider, but don’t mistake “withdrawals restored in batches” for “everything’s fine now.”

With the second batch of withdrawals now open and money starting to flow back in, do you think things have stabilized, or are people simply tired of withdrawing?

$BNB $BTC

Shopify got a bit of a raw deal today: GMV rose 29%, and business was clearly heading in the right direction, yet the stock still got hammered 16.2% premarket. Put simply, revenue came in just $100 million below expectations—a $10 million shortfall, and the stock dropped 16%. That’s the market for you: good business doesn’t mean the stock won’t get punished. The higher expectations are, the harder even a small miss gets hit. Don’t let the scary drop distract you—first check whether the business itself has actually gotten worse.

$SHOP

Apple and Palantir both reported better-than-expected earnings last night, yet in after-hours trading one fell more than 2% and the other more than 4%. Even Palantir raising its full-year guidance to $8.5 billion wasn’t enough. Put simply, what’s getting punished now isn’t earnings, but valuations and sentiment. Good earnings are, at best, a ticket to avoid being punished even more. Futures are hovering around flat ahead of the open, and three things are lined up for today: midterm election voting, JOLTS, and AMD’s earnings after the close. Even good companies can still fall; paying too much is the cardinal sin. Don’t rush to buy the dip.

$AAPL $PLTR

Oracle has offered a ready-made example of the cash-burning side of AI: it announced a $20 billion financing plan spread over four years just last week, and it was all used up in a single morning. The stock fell 6.4% intraday, to its lowest level since July. Its market cap has shed more than $60 billion since Investor Day. In short, no matter how grand the story, the books have to add up first.

$ORCL

The Nasdaq plunged 2.86% on Friday, but futures have steadied tonight, with the Nasdaq up about 0.8% and the S&P 500 up about 0.5%. Bitcoin is still hovering around $78,000, though, up only about 0.3% in the past 24 hours—it hasn’t followed stocks higher at all.

My stance is clear: if Bitcoin isn’t moving, neither am I. That little bump in futures isn’t enough to make me change course.

Which side are you on? A: Ride the rebound with stocks tonight—get in first and figure it out later; B: If Bitcoin isn’t moving, stay put and wait for it to actually turn higher before following along?

$BTC

Anthropic is really asking for a lot this time: the new shares are being sold only to Japanese investors, with up to $3.5 billion to be raised in one go—more than the $2.2 billion SpaceX previously raised in Japan. The use of proceeds is spelled out plainly: it’s all going toward operating and capital expenditures. In other words, they’ll keep burning cash to secure computing power. The AI race now comes down to who has the deeper pockets. With this much money going up in smoke, will they ever make it back? Which side do you think the market will believe first?

South Korea is really putting its money where its mouth is this time: 21.3 trillion won is going toward AI and data centers, including 4.6 trillion won earmarked specifically for developing a homegrown, cutting-edge large AI model. It’s also planning to build a semiconductor cluster. Think about it: this isn’t just talk—it’s using public funds as leverage to compete with the U.S. for a say in computing power. The investment may not pay off right away, but the direction is clear: in this AI race, whoever controls the computing power has the louder voice. Whether the semiconductor cluster can keep up depends on how well these plans are implemented.

$EWY

Bitcoin spent all weekend hovering around $78,000 with no clear direction. The real action comes after the market closes tomorrow: Apple reports its Q4 earnings, with the market expecting EPS of about $1.99 and revenue of roughly $113.4 billion. It’ll also be the new CEO’s first earnings call. Put simply, meeting the numbers isn’t enough to win—if holiday-quarter guidance comes in low, the stock could still take a hit. I’d rather wait for the guidance before making a move; chasing the stock ahead of earnings is like providing exit liquidity for someone else. Time to pick a side: are you buying in before earnings, or waiting until guidance is out?

$AAPL $BTC

The national team is gearing up for another big move. Reports say a major state-owned bank plans to provide China Reform and China Chengtong with additional share buyback and stake-increase loan quotas worth hundreds of billions of yuan each, potentially as much as 100 billion yuan apiece—possibly exceeding the size of the first round in 2024. Put simply, this is ammunition for the market, except it’s money lent to the national team to buy shares. With the funds ready, will the market bite? $ASHR

Just a couple of days ago, people were still arguing in the square: Was Binance’s $6 billion-plus loss an inside job or an outside attack? No need to argue now. On October 31, the FBI made it official: North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor stole more than $6 billion from Binance around October 29, making it the biggest heist in crypto history.

This time is different. Before, analytics firms made guesses based on on-chain traces. Now the FBI has issued a joint statement with the U.S. Secret Service and the IRS Criminal Investigation Division. The FBI also found that large amounts of the stolen funds are being converted into ETH, and will next be laundered through DeFi and instant exchanges. It also published a list of addresses: more than 600 ETH addresses, fewer than 20 BTC addresses, and one SOL address, calling on node operators, exchanges, and DeFi platforms to block them together.

Put simply, the official confirmation is just the beginning, not the end. The same group carried out a roughly $1.5 billion heist at Bybit last year, so they know the playbook well. Chainalysis also warned that the attackers have already used thousands of addresses and may split the funds across tens of thousands more in the coming weeks. The list may stop some of them, but not all.

Being visible on-chain doesn’t mean the funds can be frozen. Decentralization is usually about nobody being able to stop you. Now, with one word from the FBI, platforms have to choose sides: block the funds and put compliance controls in place, or refuse and go against law enforcement.

Knowing who did it is just the beginning. Whether the money can be stopped and whether platforms can prevent the next attack—that’s the real test.

#FBIConfirmsNorthKoreaResponsibleForBinanceTheft
$BTC $ETH $BNB

South Korea’s chip exports hit $56.4 billion in October, up 259% year over year, while total exports also rose 76.1% after adjusting for working days. Put simply, the AI chip shortage is real—it’s not just a story. But don’t take that 93.7% headline at face value: there were more working days, so the numbers naturally look better. The growth is real, but be cautious about chasing the rally. $EWY

Bottom line first: Binance’s compensation effort has finally made visible progress as of this morning—the stolen assets have been replenished to 90%.

The 7,499 BTC from the SAFU fund arrived yesterday. It’s visible on-chain and worth about $581 million. Combined with the 80% already covered, the official figures say that the major coins—BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, and SOL—have been fully replenished. The remaining 10% consists of smaller, less liquid coins that are still being gradually sourced on and off the market.

Put simply, there are two sides to this: the funds have been replenished, but that doesn’t mean the matter is settled. Withdrawals are still unavailable. The official statement says they’ll resume in phases today, but there’s no firm word yet on exactly when or which coins will be included in each batch. A target is just a target—don’t assume withdrawals are available until they actually go live.

There’s another date worth noting: the October 31 proof-of-reserves snapshot has been taken, and the full proof will be released on November 3. Holders of those ten major coins will then be able to verify the 1:1 backing for themselves. Only once that checks out can we really call this settled.

The Fear and Greed Index is still at 35. It’s understandable to be nervous, but let’s get the numbers straight first.

$BTC $BNB